digital trends: technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
TRANSCRIPT
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DIGITAL TRENDS Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
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PREDICTIONS...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg
„Predic(on is very difficult, especially about the future. “ Niels Bohr (1885 -‐ 1962)
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PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.“ President Michigan Savings Bank advising not to invest in Ford Motor Co. (1903)
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PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„There is not the slightest indica(on that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shaSered at will.“ Albert Einstein (1932)
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PREDICTIONS...
http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg
„I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Thomas Watson (1943)
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PREDICTIONS...
https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg
„A computer in every home.“ Bill Gates (1977)
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PREDICTIONS...
http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg
„There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.“ Ken Olsen (1977)
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PREDICTIONS...
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg
„There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.“ Steve Ballmer (2007)
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PREDICTIONS...
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PREDICTIONS...
http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
„Visionaries see a future of telecommu(ng workers, interac(ve libraries and mul(media classrooms. They speak of electronic town mee(ngs and virtual communi(es. Commerce and business will shi_ from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democra(c. Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-‐ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.“
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REALLY?!
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REASONS
Companies are planning for con(nuous/linear development – while the world is increasingly discon(nuous/exponen(al
„If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.“ Jack Welch
http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1
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REASONS
“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
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REASONS 1. Innovator‘s Dilemma
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REASONS 2. Technology-adoption
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REASONS 3. Illusion of linearity
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
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REASONS
„We are fine!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
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REASONS
„We are fucked!“
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html
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ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997
http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg
• 1.8 teraflops • 10.000 Intel Pen(um Pro • Size: Tennis-‐Court • Energy consump(on: 800 houses • Cost: $55 million
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PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3
• 1.8 teraflops • Cost: $399
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DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost 2007: $10 million
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DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901 http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg
• Cost 2015: $1.000
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LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542
• 30 years: 1955 -‐> 1985
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LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
• 30 years: 1985 -‐> 2015
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EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg
• How many folds to the moon?
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EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon
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REPLACING JOBS
„The role of humans as the most important factor of produc(on is bound to diminish in the same way that the role of horses in agricultural produc(on was first diminished and then eliminated by the introduc(on of tractors.“ Wassily Leon(ef (1983)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg
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REPLACING JOBS
In the next two decades, 47 per cent of employment is ‘in the high-‐risk category’, meaning it is ‘poten(ally automatable’.
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m
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REPLACING JOBS
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MOBILITY
Cars: $9 trillion market http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg
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MOBILITY
1.2 million deaths related to car accidents/year (40% alcohol/93% distracted) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg
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MOBILITY
Driven just 4% of the (me Cost of $9.000/year
http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/ http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/ http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg
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MOBILITY
Self-‐driving cars: 99% fewer cars required Parking lots no longer required (10% city space) http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
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ENERGY
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
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ENERGY
http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg
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ENERGY
http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/
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ENERGY
http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg
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ENERGY
http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg
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HEALTH
$7.5 trillion market From one-‐for-‐all to personalized medicine From treatment to preven(on
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HEALTH
$258 bn. + 130,000 deaths due to non-‐prescribed medica(on just in US No doctors required within 20 years? http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo
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INSURANCE
Sensors everywhere
http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/
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TELCOS
$33 bn. lost SMS revenues http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion
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TELCOS
Dumb pipe?
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EDUCATION
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/
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BANKING
„Banking is necessary, banks are not.“ Bill Gates
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg
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BANKING
2020: 35% of revenues lost to non-‐banks and online pure-‐plays http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/
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BANKING
Banking license
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BANKING
ASacks on all fronts https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/
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MONEY
$500 bn. transfer/payment fees/year http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/ http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing- http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman
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THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
= largest „taxi“ provider; no vehicles
= most popular media owner; no content created
= most valuable retailer; no inventory
= largest accomoda(on provider; no real estate
= largest food delivery; no restaurants, no fleet
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THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
User experience = the central part: own the customer (and the profits) by solving her problem in the most seamless, enjoyable way.
„The customer's percep(on is your reality.“ Kate Zabriskie
„Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.“ Steve Jobs
http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg
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THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
Service Aggrega(on Need
Convenience
passive responsive proac(ve
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg
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THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
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DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf
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THANK YOU!
Alexander Braun alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de @almarrone