digital media 101
DESCRIPTION
Digital Media 101. Drivers & Frameworks: How We Got Here and Where We are Going. Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director, Maremel Institute Education Programs in Media and Cultural Change @ maremel. 1. Computers as a retail consumer product seemed humorous in 1965. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Digital Media 101
Drivers & Frameworks: How We Got Here and
Where We are Going
1
Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director, Maremel InstituteEducation Programs in Media and Cultural Change
@maremel
Computers as a retail consumer product seemed humorous in 1965
Cartoon, Gordon Moore articleElectronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.
2
2 Forces Geometrically Changed How We Connect
Dramatic increase and diffusion of data, storage, and computer processing power into the system and into homes and cell phones
Dramatic decrease in the cost of “distance” (Cairncross, 1997) from both deregulation and technology creating infrastructure and reduced per minute or per connection cost
3
Moore’s Law continues to drop cost and increase speed of computing
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
Source: Intel.com1965: prediction that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years
4
Kuyper’s Law: Storage Cost Continues to Plummet
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
5
Bandwidth Continues to Decline in Cost, Increase in Speed and Capacity
Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge
6
Internet is Reaching the Last Third of U.S. users, Mostly Over 65
Sources: Deloitte Center for the Edge, Pew
7
US Mobile Has Reached Saturation; Internet/4G to Keep Growing
8
9
Technology: Changing Rules
Expectations Funds
Content Time
10
4 costs have transformed content creation, transport, and playback
Cost of digital distribution and inventory
Costs of transit and storage
Costs of creation and tools
Costs (and rewards) have increased to integrate, e.g., Google, Facebook, Vevo, YouTube, Twitter, etc.
11
Resulting Power Shifters and New Limits
o Extensive computing power in the home and inexpensive storage -- heading to Cloud Computing
o In most countries, broadband in expansion or late adopter stage
o Battery/power being “solved”
o Compression (continuing) to be “solved”
o Heat (heat?)/energy use
o Tools for inexpensive creation
12
Media technologies connect “Where” and “When”
• Time of Consumption
• Place of Consumption
• Metaphors/rules of consumption
• Time of Capture• Place of Capture• Rules of
Capture/Editing/Context
TimeSpaceConnections
13
Examples LocationTime Shifting
Multiple Uses
Multiple Media
Concerts, theater, sporting events
1 – live venue – out of home
None 1 Initially, none
Movies in theater 1 – shifted – out of home
Yes – venue’s choice
1 for user; multiple for theater
None
Records Many – moveable
Yes – user’s choice
Many None (45 vs LP)
Television 1 – shifted – in home
Yes – channel’s choice
1 for user; multiple by contract for station
None
Radio 1 – shifted – in home
Yes – channel’s choice
1 1
Progressive Media Have Re-sliced Time and Place for Consumers
14
Time and Place Shifted to the Home and Onward
15
Examples LocationTime Shifting
Multiple Uses
Multiple Media
Rental, Home Video(1984 Betamax ruling)
1 – shifted, in-home
Yes Yes No
CD; cassettes; DVD; books, newspapers
Many – shifted – users’ choice
Yes Yes Not until recently
DVRs (digital video recorders, like TiVo)
Where the device is
Yes Yes Progressively (e.g., Slingbox)
Digital files – mp3, epub, jpg, html, avi, mpeg2, mpeg4, etc.
Many Yes Yes Yes – crashed into time- and place-based contracts
New Media Cracked Open Time and Place Permanently
…so will we ever need to purchase another copy of a library media? DATA is now the driver.
16
Digital Connection Drivers are Reconnecting Time and Place with Data
Technologies of Connection
• Metadata to the frame
• Recording relationship with user
• Recording relationship with distribution
• Influencing relationships with filter and relationship with other media objects
• Allowing connection with other media objects
17
Time: Sliced and Diced with Data
Data now measures and guides connection between consumer use and advertiser measurement of time
18
Data Driving New Business Models
• Licensing and new syndications• Razor/blade – cross-subsidy
• Paying for virtual goods or relationship
• Versioning/”Freemium” (free or inexpensive versions to promote and for various media)
• Selling data and behavior (like advertising)• New “Windows” – new slicing economic rent
by timeframe and technology limits• “Library” – selling different time/place values for paid-for
content
19
AbundantCreation
Creative Community
New Filters + New Abundance Drive New Creative Industry Structures
Variable Inputs + Uncertain Outputs =Excess Production and Capacity
Source: Caves, Creative Industries, 2000
20
Gartner’s Hype Cycles: New Models Push in with Inflated Expectations
21
Gartner Hype Positions Shifted: 2009-2011 Editions
22
New Powers: Alliances, Keystones, and New Aggregators
23
Interwoven Networks of Influence are Changing
24
Bulk of Internet Users: Asia and Europe
25
Global Shifts to Connected Participation
26
Source: Universal McCann Wave4 7/09
Citizen journalism unleashed whole
new realms of participation, politics, and
recommendations
27
Wireless: 3G projected to strongly penetrate before 2016, behind Europe and Japan
28
Expanding our External Brains: New Expectations
29
Consumer decision points are changing to “right now”
30
. . . and instant data is now available for that decision influencing moment
Techmeme: Social graph vs. Interest
graph – The Age of Relevance
31
Shifting Powers: Information, Recommendation, and/or Relevance
Data Recrafts Assumptions Around Territory and Contracts
Local: Collecting local audiences for local advertising, local media content, and geo-contracted structures of national content and ads….
Search-based local advertising: restructuring hyperlocal market…release of mechanical “need” for local content distribution over time (including education? Newspapers?)
New business combinations? Local creation? Local social tools/conversations?
32
Data "Flow": Newer Need for two-way Infrastructures
• 2-way information on music, books, digital publishing, connected media
• Distribution to dozens or hundreds of distribution points in different formats
• Need to realign internal company processes – reinvent the pipes of the corporation – to maximize these assets– Not just digital workflow – digital decision-making
33
Music as a Small-File Canary: What Happened?
34
Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music Newshttp://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry
Digital Now: Singles On DemandChanging Tides of US Music Sales
35Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music Newshttp://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry
New Ecosystems Building to Integrate with
Re-Aggregators
Advertisers: Catching and Driving Change
37
Source: Blackstone
TV: Tipping into Data, Relational, and Social?
Source: Silicon Valley Insider
Shifting Viewing Trends
39
TV: What and Where?
Source: XBox
Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director
Maremel InstituteEducation Programs in
Media and Cultural Change
@maremel626-603-2420
www.maremel.com