different risk analysis measures
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different risk analysis measures. Explain what each measures. What are problems &
benefits of each?
Disaster Reduction Index (DRI) > deaths
Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) > economic
Local Disasters Index (LDI) > deaths, losses, destructino
Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI)
Risk Management Index (RMI)
Palmer Drought Severity Index
developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s
most effective in determining long-term drought
excess rain level expressed with plus (+) figures
standardized to local climate
not as good for short term forecasts
doesnt calculate the amount of water that is locked up in snow
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How else can we measure/ predict drought
short term : Crop Moisture Index (CMI)
o responds more rapidly
o designed to indicate normal conditions at the beginning and end of the
growing season
o more weight on recent weeks
Other indices
o Percent of Normal: a simple calculation well suited to the needs of TV
weathercasters and general audiences.
o Standardized Precipitation Index: The SPI is an index based on the
probability of precipitation for any time scale.
o Surface Water Supply Index: The SWSI is designed to complement the
Palmer in the state of Colorado, where mountain snowpack is a key element of
water supply; calculated by river basin, based on snowpack, streamflow,precipitation, and reservoir storage.
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o Reclamation Drought Index: Like the SWSI, the RDI is calculated at
the river basin level, incorporating temperature as well as precipitation,
snowpack, streamflow, and reservoir levels as input.
o Deciles: Groups monthly precipitation occurrences into deciles so that,
by definition, much lower than normal weather cannot occur more oftenthan 20% of the time.
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.html
http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#deciles
Risk and Risk Assessment1. What is the relationship between the concept of vulnerability and risk?
-Vulnerability: the geographic conditions that increase the susceptibility of a
community to a hazard or to the impacts of a hazard event
-Risk: the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences (expected
losses in terms of death, injuries, property damage, economy and environment)
-higher risk for people who are more vulnerable
-factors aggravate vulnerability
-reduce vulnerability=reduce poverty
-proportional, direct relationship (higher the vulnerability, higher the risk)
2. What are the differences between indirect and direct effects of hazards?
-direct effects: deaths caused during the cyclone, such as when a tree or a building
falls on a person
-indirect effects: consequences that occur after the event (periods that are difficult to
define with very much precision
-short-term effect: deaths resulting from respiratory, infectious or parasitic diseases
that start to spread as a result of the tropical cyclones
-medium-term effect: deaths resulting from the deterioration of living conditions, a
deterioration of basic services that affect heath standards, or factors that increase
peoples vulnerability, such as poverty and malnutrition
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.htmlhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#decileshttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/risk-and-risk-assessment/http://www.drought.noaa.gov/palmer.htmlhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm#decileshttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/risk-and-risk-assessment/ -
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3. Why do people underestimate the probability of a hazard event? What
effect does that have?
-LEDCs: certain individuals or companies are spared the expense or effort of dealing
with the remedies required
-people dont have necessary long-term data and information to access the risk
accurately
-people in the hazard-prone areas: the risk may be known, but it is psychologically
suppressed so that the benefits of living in an area are not challenged >
psychological denial of the risk
-they become more vulnerable as a result of misjudging and under-estimating
4. What helps and hinders a persons perception of risk?
-experience: the more experience of environmental hazards, the greater the
adjustment to the hazard
-material well-being: those who are better off have more choice
-personality: is the person a leader or a follower, a risk-taker or a risk-minimizer?
-response: 1. do nothing and accept the hazard; 2. adjust to the situation of living in a
hazardous environment; 3. leave the area
VULNERABILITY.
02FE B2011Leave a Comment
4. Examine your case study. Who is vulnerable and why?
Europe drought 2003
small countries of EU-have less powerful economies
old people/children (infants)-more vulnerable to the weather conditions
workers-they have to be outside for a long time under the heatwave
water supply
electricity
farmers: drop in harvest Case Study
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HAZARDS!
http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/hazards/http://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/magnitude.jpghttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/hazards/ -
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18JA N2011Leave a Comment
STABLE
http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/stable-unstable-air/#respondhttp://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/duration.jpghttp://geojihyun.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/areal-extent.jpghttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/stable-unstable-air/#respond -
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High pressure causes sinking, warming, and dry air
ELR=environmental lapse rate (6C per 1000 meter, varies)
DAR=dry adiabatic lapse rate (10C per 1000 meter)
ELRDAR temp
Air mass drops (doesnt continue to increase)
Hazard: drought
UNSTABLE
Low pressure causes rising, cooling, and wet air
ELR>DAR=unstable
ELR temp
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Conservation
07DE C2010Leave a Comment
by11kimjiin Uncategorized
One Strategy
http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-
strategy
Pakistan: National Conservation Strategy
Conserving natural resources
measures to control and limit pollution
The incorporation and integration of environmental and sustainable
development themes into educational curricula and in the media
Negative sides: costs of using education and media
Oil and PEAK oil
26NO V2010Leave a Comment
by11kimjiin Uncategorized
One conflict over oil-who-background-current status
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190
http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/conservation/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://projects.wri.org/sd-pams-database/pakistan/national-conservation-strategyhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/oil-and-peak-oil/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190 -
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US and China
As oil prices breach $60 a barrel and pessimists warn that the world could be as little
as 10 years away from a first-order resources crisis, Chinas largest oil company,
CNOOC, has launched a $18.5 billion bid for one of the USs juiciest medium-sized oil
companies, Unocal.
Good relationship. No wars.
Find 1 piece of information about peak oil-who said and significance
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-
smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-
now/article1810104/
Even the International Energy Agency expects
peak oil now!
The optimism typically found in the International Energy Agencys annualWorld
Energy Outlookreport is strangely missing this year. Instead, the IEA is taking a far
more sober perspective on the worlds oil-consuming future due to our ever-greater
reliance on costly unconventional oil sources.
Growth Theories
23NO V2010Leave a Comment
by11kimjiin Uncategorized
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.energybulletin.net/node/7190http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/http://www.iea.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/growth-theories/#respondhttp://geojihyun.wordpress.com/author/11kimji/http://geojihyun.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/ -
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