Dick Bond

Inflation Then k=(1+q)(a) ~r/16 0< = multi-parameter expansion in (lnHa ~ lnk)

~ 10 good e-folds in a (k~10-4Mpc-1 to ~ 1 Mpc-1 LSS)

~ 10+ parameters? Bond, Contaldi, Kofman, Vaudrevange 07 V() Cosmic Probes now & then CMBpol (T+E,B modes of polarization), LSS

Inflation Histories & their Cosmic Probes, now & then

Inflation Now1+w(a) goes to 2(1+q)/3

~1 good e-fold. only ~2params Zhiqi Huang, Bond & Kofman 07

Cosmic Probes Now CFHTLS SN(192),WL(Apr07),CMB,BAO,LSS,Ly

Cosmic Probes Then JDEM-SN + DUNE-WL + Planck +ACT/SPT…

V()?

~0 to 2 to 3/2 to ~.4 now, on its way to 0?

CMBology

ForegroundsCBI, Planck

ForegroundsCBI, Planck

SecondaryAnisotropies (CBI,ACT)

(tSZ, kSZ, reion)

SecondaryAnisotropies (CBI,ACT)

(tSZ, kSZ, reion)

Non-Gaussianity(Boom, CBI, WMAP)

Non-Gaussianity(Boom, CBI, WMAP)

Polarization ofthe CMB, Gravity Waves

(CBI, Boom, Planck, Spider)

Polarization ofthe CMB, Gravity Waves

(CBI, Boom, Planck, Spider)

Dark Energy Histories(& CFHTLS-SN+WL)

Dark Energy Histories(& CFHTLS-SN+WL)

subdominant phenomena

(isocurvature, BSI)

subdominant phenomena

(isocurvature, BSI)

Inflation Histories(CMBall+LSS)

Inflation Histories(CMBall+LSS)

Probing the linear & nonlinear cosmic web

Probing the linear & nonlinear cosmic web

wide open braking

approach to preheating

roulette inflation potential T=+i

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Polarbear(300 bolometers)@Cal

SZA(Interferometer) @Cal

APEX(~400 bolometers) @Chile

SPT(1000 bolometers) @South Pole

ACT(3000 bolometers) @Chile

Planck08.8

(84 bolometers)

HEMTs @L2

Bpol@L2

ALMA(Interferometer) @Chile

(12000 bolometers)SCUBA2

Quiet1

Quiet2Bicep @SP

QUaD @SP

CBI pol to Apr’05 @Chile

Acbar to Jan’06, 07f @SP

WMAP @L2 to 2009-2013?

2017

(1000 HEMTs) @Chile

Spider

Clover @Chile

Boom03@LDB

DASI @SP

CAPMAP

AMI

GBT

2312 bolometer @LDB

JCMT @Hawaii

CBI2 to early’08

EBEX@LDB

LMT@Mexico

LHC

CMB/LSS Phenomenology CITA/CIfAR here

• Bond

• Contaldi

• Lewis

• Sievers

• Pen

• McDonald

• Majumdar

• Nolta

• Iliev

• Kofman

• Vaudrevange

• Huang

UofT here

• Netterfield

• Crill

• Carlberg

• Yee

& Exptal/Analysis/Phenomenology Teams here & there

• Boomerang03 (98)

• Cosmic Background Imager1/2

• Acbar07

• WMAP (Nolta, Dore)

• CFHTLS – WeakLens

• CFHTLS - Supernovae

• RCS2 (RCS1; Virmos-Descart)

CITA/CIfAR there

• Mivelle-Deschenes (IAS)

• Pogosyan (U of Alberta)

• Myers (NRAO)

• Holder (McGill)

• Hoekstra (UVictoria)

• van Waerbeke (UBC)

Parameter data now: CMBall_pol

SDSS P(k), BAO, 2dF P(k)

Weak lens (Virmos/RCS1, CFHTLS, RCS2) ~100sqdeg Benjamin etal.

aph/0703570v1

Lya forest (SDSS)

SN1a “gold”(192,15 z>1) CFHTLS

then: ACT (SZ), Spider, Planck, 21(1+z)cm GMRT,SKA

• Dalal

• Dore

• Kesden

• MacTavish

• Pfrommer

• Shirokov

• Dalal

• Dore

• Kesden

• MacTavish

• Pfrommer

• Shirokov

ProkushkinProkushkin

WMAP3 sees 3rd pk, B03 sees 4th ‘‘Shallow’ scan, 75 hours, fShallow’ scan, 75 hours, fskysky=3.0%, large scale TT=3.0%, large scale TT

‘‘deep’ scan, 125 hours, fsky=0.28% 115sq deg, ~ Planck2yrdeep’ scan, 125 hours, fsky=0.28% 115sq deg, ~ Planck2yr

B03+B98 final soon

CBIpol 2.5 yrs EE, ~ best so far, ~QuaD

TEBB

TT

CBI excess 04, 2.5 yrs cf. CBI excess Dec07,

5 yrs

Jan08: Full ACBAR data ~ 4X includes 2005 observations

Current high L state

November 07

Current high L state

November 07

CBI sees 4th 5th pk

CBI excess 07

WMAP3 sees 3rd pk, B03 sees 4th

ACT@5170m

CBI2@5040m

why Atacama? driest desert in the world. thus: cbi, toco, apex,

asti, act, alma, quiet, clover

forecast Planck2.5

100&143

Spider10d

95&150

Synchrotron pol’n

Dust pol’n

are higher in B

Foreground Template removals

from multi-frequency data

is crucial

PRIMARY END @ 2012? PRIMARY END @ 2012?

CMB ~2009+ Planck1+WMAP8+SPT/ACT/Quiet+Bicep/QuAD/Quiet +Spider+Clover

INFLATION THEN

INFLATION THEN

Standard Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation

Òk

What is the average curvature of the universe (we can see)?

Òbh2 ÒË nsÒdmh2

Density of Baryonic Matter

Density of non-interacting Dark

Matter

Cosmological Constant

Spectral index of primordial scalar

(curvature) perturbations

nt

Spectral index of

primordial tensor

(Gravity Wave)

perturbations

lnAs

Scalar Amplitude

r = A t=As

Tensor Amplitude

Period of inflationary expansion, quantum noise metric perturbations

üc

Compton Depth to Last

Scattering Surface

When did stars reionize the universe?

òø `à1s

r < 0.6 or

< 0.28 95% CLø lnû2

8 nçs

ns = .958 +- .015 (+-.005 Planck1)

.93 +- .03 @0.05/Mpc run&tensor

r=At / As < 0.28 95% CL (+-.03)

<.36 CMB+LSS run&tensor

< .05 ln r prior!

dns /dln k =-.038 +- .024 (+-.005)

CMB+LSS run&tensor prior change?

As = 22 +- 2 x 10-10

The Parameters of Cosmic Structure FormationThe Parameters of Cosmic Structure FormationCosmic Numerology: aph/0611198 – our Acbar paper on the basic 7+; bckv07

WMAP3modified+B03+CBIcombined+Acbar06+LSS (SDSS+2dF) + DASI (incl polarization and CMB weak lensing and tSZ)

bh2 = .0226 +- .0006

ch2 = .114 +- .005

= .73 +.02 - .03

h = .707 +- .021

m= .27 + .03 -.02

zreh = 11.4 +- 2.5

1+w = 0.02 +/- 0.05 ‘phantom DE’ allowed?!

New Parameters of Cosmic Structure FormationÒk

Òbh2lnH(kp)

ï (k); k ù HaÒdmh2

=1+q, the deceleration parameter history

order N Chebyshev expansion, N-1 parameters

(e.g. nodal point values)

P s(k) / H 2=ï ;P t(k) / H 2

òø `à1s ; cf :ÒË

Hubble parameter at inflation at a pivot pt

Fluctuations are from stochastic kicks ~ H/2 superposed on the downward drift at lnk=1.

Potential trajectory from HJ (SB 90,91):

üc

à ï = d lnH =d lna

1à ïà ï = d lnk

d lnH

d lnkd inf = 1à ï

æ ïp

V / H 2(1à 3ï );

ï = (d lnH =d inf)2or dual ln P s(k);P t(k)

Constraining Inflaton Acceleration Trajectories Bond, Contaldi, Kofman & Vaudrevange 07

“path integral” over probability landscape of theory and data, with mode-function expansions of the paths truncated by an imposed smoothness

(Chebyshev-filter) criterion [data cannot constrain high ln k frequencies]

P(trajectory|data, th) ~ P(lnHp,k|data, th)

~ P(data| lnHp,k ) P(lnHp,k | th) / P(data|th)

Likelihood theory prior / evidence

“path integral” over probability landscape of theory and data, with mode-function expansions of the paths truncated by an imposed smoothness

(Chebyshev-filter) criterion [data cannot constrain high ln k frequencies]

P(trajectory|data, th) ~ P(lnHp,k|data, th)

~ P(data| lnHp,k ) P(lnHp,k | th) / P(data|th)

Likelihood theory prior / evidenceData:

CMBall

(WMAP3,B03,CBI, ACBAR,

DASI,VSA,MAXIMA)

+

LSS (2dF, SDSS, 8[lens])

Data:

CMBall

(WMAP3,B03,CBI, ACBAR,

DASI,VSA,MAXIMA)

+

LSS (2dF, SDSS, 8[lens])

Theory prior

uniform in lnHp,k

(equal a-prior probability hypothesis)

Nodal points cf. Chebyshev coefficients (linear

combinations)

uniform in / log in / monotonic in k

The theory prior matters a lot for current data.

Not quite as much for a Bpol future.

We have tried many theory priors

Theory prior

uniform in lnHp,k

(equal a-prior probability hypothesis)

Nodal points cf. Chebyshev coefficients (linear

combinations)

uniform in / log in / monotonic in k

The theory prior matters a lot for current data.

Not quite as much for a Bpol future.

We have tried many theory priors

1980

2000

1990

-inflation Old Inflation

New InflationChaotic inflation

Double Inflation

Extended inflation

DBI inflation

Super-natural Inflation

Hybrid inflation

SUGRA inflation

SUSY F-term inflation SUSY D-term

inflation

SUSY P-term inflation

Brane inflation

K-flationN-flation

Warped Brane inflation

inflation

Power-law inflation

Tachyon inflationRacetrack inflation

Assisted inflation

Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

Natural pNGB inflation

Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theoryOld view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory

Radical BSI inflation variable MP inflation

1980

2000

1990

Chaotic inflation

Double Inflation

Extended inflation

Power-law inflation

Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

Natural pNGB inflation

Radical BSI inflation variable MP inflation

1980

2000

1990

Power-law inflation

Uniform acceleration

V/MP4 ~ exp MP

-

1/2

1-nsnt rrns

rns

Uniform acceleration

V/MP4 ~ exp MP

-

1/2

1-nsnt rrns

rnsMP

-2= 8G

1980

2000

1990

Chaotic inflation

V/MP4 ~ 2 MP

-1/2

(k) NI(k) +/3

ns-1+1NI(k) -/6ntNI(k) -/6

forNI =1, rnsnt

=2, rnsnt

V/MP4 ~ 2 MP

-1/2

(k) NI(k) +/3

ns-1+1NI(k) -/6ntNI(k) -/6

forNI =1, rnsnt

=2, rnsnt

1980

2000

1992 Natural pNGB inflation

V/MP4 ~red

4sin2fred -1/2

nsfred-2

1-nsexp[1-nsNI (k)] (1+1-ns -1

exponentially suppressed; higher r if lowerNI & 1-ns

to match ns.96, fred~ 5, r~0.032

to match ns.97, fred~ 5.8, r ~0.048 ,

V/MP4 ~red

4sin2fred -1/2

nsfred-2

1-nsexp[1-nsNI (k)] (1+1-ns -1

exponentially suppressed; higher r if lowerNI & 1-ns

to match ns.96, fred~ 5, r~0.032

to match ns.97, fred~ 5.8, r ~0.048 ,

abffo92

Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theoryOld view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory

New view: Theory prior = probability distribution on an energy landscape

whose features areare at best only glimpsed,

huge number of potential minima, inflation the late stage flow in the low

energy structure toward these minima. Critical role of collective coordinates in

the low energy landscape:

moduli fields, sizes and shapes of geometrical structures such as holes in

a dynamical extra-dimensional (6D) manifold approaching stabilization

moving brane & antibrane separations (D3,D7)

New view: Theory prior = probability distribution on an energy landscape

whose features areare at best only glimpsed,

huge number of potential minima, inflation the late stage flow in the low

energy structure toward these minima. Critical role of collective coordinates in

the low energy landscape:

moduli fields, sizes and shapes of geometrical structures such as holes in

a dynamical extra-dimensional (6D) manifold approaching stabilization

moving brane & antibrane separations (D3,D7)

Theory prior ~ probability of trajectories given potential parameters of

the collective coordinates X probability of the potential parameters X

probability of initial conditions

1980

2006

1990

Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion

typical r ~ 10-10

As & ns~0.97 OK

but by statistical selection!

running dns /dlnk exists, but small

because small observable window

typical r ~ 10-10

As & ns~0.97 OK

but by statistical selection!

running dns /dlnk exists, but small

because small observable window

Roulette: which minimum

for the rolling ball depends upon the throw; but which roulette wheel we

play is chance too.

The ‘house’ does not just play dice with

the world.

focus on “4-cycle Kahler moduli in large volume limit

of IIB flux compactifications” Balasubramanian,

Berglund 2004, + Conlon, Quevedo 2005, + Suruliz 2005

Real & imaginary parts are both important BKVP06

energy scale of inflation & r

V/MP4 ~ Ps r (1-3) 3/2

V~ (1016 Gev)4 r/0.1 (1-3)

energy scale of inflation & r

V/MP4 ~ Ps r (1-3) 3/2

V~ (1016 Gev)4 r/0.1 (1-3)

roulette inflation examples V~ (few x1013

Gev)4

roulette inflation examples V~ (few x1013

Gev)4

H/MP ~ 10-5 (r/.1)1/2 H/MP ~ 10-5 (r/.1)1/2 inflation energy scale cf. the gravitino mass (Kallosh &

Linde 07) if a KKLT/largeVCY-like generation mechanism

1013 Gev (r/.01)1/2 ~ H < m3/2 cf. ~Tev

Planck1yr simulation: input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor

r (.002 /Mpc) reconstructed cf. rin

s order 5 uniform prior s order 5 log prior

GW/scalar curvature: current from CMB+LSS: r < 0.6 or < 0.25 (.28) 95%; good shot at 0.02 95% CL with BB polarization (+- .02 PL2.5+Spider), .01 target

BUT foregrounds/systematics?? But r-spectrum. But low energy inflation

Planck1 simulation: input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor

Ps Pt reconstructed cf. input of LCDM with scalar running & r=0.1

s order 5 uniform prior

s order 5 log prior

lnPs lnPt (nodal 5 and 5)

http://www.astro.caltech.edu/~lgg/spider_front.htmhttp://www.astro.caltech.edu/~lgg/spider_front.htm

No Tensor

SPIDER Tensor Signal

Tensor

• Simulation of large scale polarization signal

B-pol simulation: ~10K detectors > 100x Planck

input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor

r (.002 /Mpc) reconstructed cf. rin

s order 5 uniform prior s order 5 log prior

a very stringent test of the -trajectory methods: A+

also input trajectory is recovered

INFLATION NOW

Inflation Now1+w(a)= sf(a/aeq;as/aeq;s) to ax3/2 = 3(1+q)/2 ~1

good e-fold. only ~2 eigenparams Zhiqi Huang, Bond & Kofman07: 3-param formula accurately fits slow-to-moderate roll & even wild rising baroque late-inflaton trajectories, as well as thawing & freezing trajectoriesCosmic Probes Now CFHTLS SN(192),WL(Apr07),CMB,BAO,LSS,Ly

s= (dlnV/d)2/4 = late-inflaton (potential

gradient)2

=0.0+-0.25 now;

weak as < 0.3 (zs >2.3) now

s to +-0.07 then Planck1+JDEM SN+DUNE WL, weak as <0.21 then, (zs >3.7)

3rd param s (~ds /dlna) ill-determined now & then

cannot reconstruct the quintessence potential, just the slope s & hubble drag info

(late-inflaton mass is < Planck mass, but not by a lot)

Cosmic Probes Then JDEM-SN + DUNE-WL + Planck1

w(a)=w0+wa(1-a) models

45 low-z SN + ESSENCE SN + SNLS 1st year SN+ Riess high-z SN, 192 “gold”SN all fit with MLCS

illustrates the near-degeneracies of the contour plotillustrates the near-degeneracies of the contour plot

Measuring the 3 parameters with current data• Use 3-parameter formula over 0<z<4 &

w(z>4)=wh (irrelevant parameter unless large).

as <0.3

Forecast: JDEM-SN (2500 hi-z + 500 low-z)

+ DUNE-WL (50% sky, gals @z = 0.1-1.1, 35/min2 ) +

Planck1yr

s=0.02+0.07-0.06

as<0.21 (95%CL)

Beyond Einstein panel: LISA+JDEM

ESA

End End