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Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

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Page 1: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies

Oscar Garcia

University of Northern

British Columbia

Page 2: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Themes

Resolution, science vs. technology Stem dbh as growth driver Stochastics

Page 3: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Model Uses

Decision-making (prediction) Research (understanding)

Page 4: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Prediction Precision Controllable variables Match:

Available input info Required output info

Management Decision-making

Page 5: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

“Process models” Mechanistic, realistic Detailed Qualitative behavior Generate questions

Scientific Research

Page 6: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Science vs. Technology

N, S, W, E

Journal of

Applied Forestry

Page 7: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Science vs. Technology

N, S, W, E

Journal of

Applied Forestry

Page 8: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

PredictionTree-level

modeltree list tree list

Page 9: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Prediction

Inventory

Tree-levelmodel

(B,N,H)

tree list tree list

Page 10: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Prediction

Inventory Application

Tree-levelmodel

(B,N,H)

tree list tree list

(B,N,H)

Page 11: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Prediction

Inventory Application

Tree-levelmodel

(B,N,H)

tree list tree list

(B,N,H)Stand-level

model

Page 12: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Complexity, Resolution Level

Page 13: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

“Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction”

Complexity, Resolution Level

Page 14: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

“Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction”

Understanding: Two levels higher? Prediction: Same level

Complexity, Resolution Level

Page 15: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

“Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction”

Understanding: Two levels higher? Prediction: Same level

Links

Complexity, Resolution Level

Page 16: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Growth Drivers

v = f(age, dbh, site) ?

Page 17: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Growth Drivers

v = f( age , dbh, {site}) ?

height

Page 18: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Growth Drivers

v = f(height, dbh)

Growth driven by stem thickness?

Page 19: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Growth Drivers

v = f(height, dbh)

Growth driven by stem thickness??

v = f(height, resources captured)

Page 20: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

TASSMitchell 1975

Page 21: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Stand-level

V / H = f(H, N, C) (Eichhorn 1904)

N / H = g(H, N, C)

C / H = h(H, N, C)

Page 22: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

C vs. H

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cro

wn

co

ver

(%)

Top height (m)

'v9.prd'u 1:4

Page 23: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

C vs. H

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cro

wn

co

ver

(%)

Top height (m)

dC/dH = a N Hb (1-C2)

'v9.prd'u 1:4''u 1:7

Page 24: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Stochastic Models

Convenient for the modeller Variability info? In practice, single realization

Page 25: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Gross Increment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

3-m

etr

e g

ross

vo

lum

e in

cre

me

nt

(m3/h

a)

Top height (m)

Page 26: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Stochastic Models

Convenient for the modeller Variability info? In practice, single realization Worse of both worlds?

Page 27: Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

Mind the Users!

web.unbc.ca/~garcia