dhpa techday 2015 - patrick savalle - disruptive technology

15
Technology is neither good nor bad nor is it neutral. (It certainly can’t be uninvented.) THE FUTURE (AND|OF) TECHNOLOGY by @patricksavalle

Upload: splend

Post on 02-Aug-2015

46 views

Category:

Technology


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

:Technology  is  neither  good  nor  bad  

nor  is  it  neutral.(It  certainly  can’t  be  uninvented.)

THE  FUTURE  (AND|OF)  TECHNOLOGYby@patricksavalle

Page 2: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology
Page 3: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

Why  has  human  progress  ground  to  a  halt?  

http://aeon.co/magazine/science/why-has-human-progress-ground-to-a-halt/

Entering  a  dark  age  of  innovation  

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7616-entering-a-

dark-age-of-innovation.html

The  great  stagnation

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/01/growth_2

THE  DARK  AGES  OF  INNOVATIONWe  were promised flying cars,  all we  got was  140  chars.  And batteries everywhere.

Page 4: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

3D  PRINTING

Create  objects  by  printing  them,  just  input  a  design  and  raw  materials.

Decentralizes  manufacturing.

Basically:  mechanical  morphogenesis,  but  billions  of  years  less  evolved.  

Page 5: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

THE  INTERNET  OF  THINGS

Everything  connected  to  the  internet.

From  large  industrial  machines  to  MEMS  (micro  electromechanical  sensors).  

Effectively:  a  hackers  paradise.

Remember  why,  in  ancient  times,  the  Battlestar Galactica had  no  networked  

computers.

Page 6: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

PLATFORM  IS  THE  NEW  FACTORY

A  platform  is  an  organization  that  crowdsources  its  resources  and  coordinates  their  collaboration.

Extremely  scalable.  Extremely  Lightweight:  only  a  business  core.

http://airbnb.comhttp://uber.com

Page 7: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

THE  COLLABORATIVE  ECONOMYAn  economy  in  which  algorithms,  

corporations,  machines  and    people  are  producing  and  sharing  

things  for  and  with  each  other.  Through  platforms.

Page 8: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

DISTRIBUTED  COLLABORATIONAny  time,  any  place,  any  context  collaboration  without  central  planning.  Economic  freedom.

Platform-­‐based  production,  decentrally  coordinated  using  stigmergic principles.

‘Just  add  value,  you  will  be  rewarded’

Task-­‐based  instead  of  job-­‐based.

https://github.comhttps://assembly.com

https://mobbr.com

Page 9: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

THE  BLOCKCHAIN

The  decentralized  ledger.    Eliminates  the  need  for  trusted  or  intermediate  parties  when  transacting.

Blockchains enable  property  (incl.  money)  to  be  exchanged  instantly,  secure  and  worldwide.  

Makes  any  property  ‘cash’  property.

“On  the  blockchain,  nobody  knows  you’re  a  fridge”

Page 10: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

I.  Financial  Instruments,  Records  and  Models

CurrencyPrivate  equitiesPublic  equitiesBondsDerivatives  (futures,  forwards,  swaps,  options)Voting  rights  associated  with  any  of  the  aboveCommoditiesSpending  recordsTrading  recordsMortgage  /  loan  recordsServicing  recordsCrowd-­‐fundingMicro-­‐financeMicro-­‐charity

II.  Public  Records

Land  titlesVehicle  registriesBusiness   licenseBusiness   incorporation  /  dissolution  recordsBusiness  ownership  recordsRegulatory  recordsCriminal  recordsPassportsBirth  certificatesDeath  certificatesVoter  IDsVotingHealth  /  Safety  InspectionsBuilding  permitsGun  permitsForensic  evidenceCourt  recordsVoting  recordsNon-­‐profit  recordsGovernment/non-­‐profit  accounting/transparency

III.  Private  Records

ContractsSignaturesWillsTrustsEscrowsGPS  trails  (personal)

IV.  Other  Semi-­‐Public  Records

DegreeCertificationsLearning  OutcomesGradesHR  records  (salary,  performance  reviews,  accomplishment)Medical  recordsAccounting  recordsBusiness  transaction  recordsGenome  dataGPS  trails  (institutional)Delivery  recordsArbitration

V.  Physical  Asset  Keys

Home  /  apartment  keysVacation  home  /  timeshare  keysHotel  room  keysCar  keysRental  car  keysLeased  cars  keysLocker  keysSafety  deposit  box  keysPackage  delivery  (split  key  between  delivery  firm  and  receiver)Betting  recordsFantasy  sports  records  (!)

VI.  Intangibles  (?)

CouponsVouchersReservations  (restaurants,  hotels,  queues,  etc)Movie  ticketsPatentsCopyrightsTrademarksSoftware  licensesVideogame  licensesMusic/movie/book  licenses  (DRM)Domain  namesOnline  identitiesProof  of  authorship  /  Proof  of  prior  art

VI.  Other

Documentary  records  (photos,   audio,  video)Data  records  (sports  scores,  temperature,  etc)Sim CardsGPS  network   identityGun  unlock  codesWeapons  unlock  codesNuclear  launch  codes  (!)Spam  control  (micro-­‐payments  for  posting)

Page 11: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

DECENTRALISED  AUTONOMOUS  CORPORATIONS

Algorithmic  companies  that  run  in  a  blockchain.  Decentralized.  No  single  point  of  failure,  control  or  censorship.

Bitcoin-­‐network  itself  was  the  first  ever  robocorp.

Ideally  platforms  with  shared  ownership  and  revenues,  based  on  participation  levels.

Banks,  payment-­‐systems,  energy  grids,  governments,  transportation,  cloud-­‐services,  exchanges,  markets,  etc.

https://erisindustries.comhttps://lazooz.org

Page 12: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

ARTIFICIAL  INTELLIGENCE

Machines  that  are  ‘intelligent’  (problems  start  right  there:  definition).

Elon Musk  is  not  an  AI  expert.  Neither  is  Stephen  Hawkings.

‘By  2029  no  computer  or  machine  intelligence  will  have  passed  the  Turing  test’  –Mitchell  Kaporhttp://longbets.org/1/

Overhyped.  General  AI  not  anytime  soon.  

Page 13: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

SINGULARITY

The  end  of  the  anthropocene,  the  beginning  of  the  mekhanocene.

Not  a  technology  but  an  event,  expected  around  2040.

‘The  church  of  Kurzweil’

Will  not  happen,  just  a  sci-­‐fi  distopia.

Page 14: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

BIOLOGY  IS  THE  ULTIMATE  TECHNOLOGY

Invented  3D  printing  5  billion  years  ago  (morphogenesis).  Has  been  running  an  internet  for  billions  of  years  (mycelia).  Using  

quantum  technology  for  billions  of  years  (birds  navigate  through  quantum  entanglement  processes  in  their  eyes).  Etc.

A  single  cell,  counting  10.000.000.000  moving  parts,  is  more  complicated  than  a  modern  nuclear  submarine.  The  body  has  

372.000.00.000.000  cells.  

Science  not  very  successful  in  understanding  nature  because  nature  doesn’t  fit  the  reductionist  paradigm  (anti-­‐chaos,  chaos).

Bio-­‐mimicry.  For  solutions,  always  look  to  nature  first!

Page 15: DHPA Techday 2015 - Patrick Savalle - Disruptive Technology

THE  BATTLE  FOR  CONTROLMORE  DECENTRALISING  TECHNOLOGY  THAN  EVER

centralized vs.  distributed,  control  vs.  autonomy,  slavery vs.  Freedom,  1%  vs.  99%