dgvt meeting – brdo 1-4 march 2008 new insight into future skill needs in europe aviana bulgarelli...
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1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
New insight into future skill needs in Europe
Aviana Bulgarelli and Alena ZukersteinovaCedefop
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why skills needs analyses
• to fill existing information deficits to inform actors on future labour market needs for their decision-making
• to support evidence-based policy-makingin LLL, employment and social policy
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why a European approach
Education and skills - key driver for European growth, competitiveness and jobs
need to know which occupations and skills will be requirededucation and training will develop knowledge and skills,
promote innovation, fill potential gaps, support growth and restructuring
Approaches to anticipate skills exist in several Member States
BUT: not yet well established at
European level
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Cedefop’s pro-active approach
• Consistent and comprehensive projections of skill needs across Europe
• Unique at European level
• European „team work“
launch and coordination of Skillsnet
towards a European system for early identification of skill needs
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
• In which sectors will employment be growing or declining?
• Which occupations will be in demand?
• For which qualifications will demand increase or decrease?
Cedefop presents the first European forecast on occupational skill needs …… to answer the following questions
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
European skills forecasting
– comparable information Europe-wide– feasible & cost-effective
First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)
Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances
Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases; additional research; joint European approach
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Modular approach to skill needs forecasting Overview of the Framework
Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios
Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation
Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification
Module 4: Replacement demand
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future trends at a pan-European level (EU-25+)
• by sector (up to 41 industries)• by occupation (up to 27 occupations)• by qualification (3 broad levels)• plus replacement demands
EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future trends by sector (EU-25+) 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Millions
Primary sector & utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Business & other services
Non-marketed services
Distribution and transport
Forecast
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future sectoralchange and structure(EU-25+)
3.2
8.9
3.5
0.4
-0.5
-2.3
13.3
5.1
11.6
5.9
1.4
-2.9
-3.1
17.9
-5 0 5 10 15 20
Non-marketed services
Business and other services
Distribution and transport
Construction
Manufacturing
Primary sector and utilities
All industries
million jobs
1996-2006
2006-2015
65.570.6 73.4
26.723.8 22.4
7.8 5.6 4.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2006 2015
Primary sectorand utilities
Manufacturing
Services
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future occupationalchange(EU-25+) 3.5
0.5
-1.4
-1.7
2.5
-1.3
4.7
3.8
2.7
18
6
0
-2
-2
4
-1
6
3
3
13.3
-5 0 5 10 15 20
All occupations
Elementary occupations
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Craft and related trades workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Clerks
Technicians and associate professionals
Professionals
Legislators, senior officials and managers
1996-2006
2006-2015
million jobs
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future occupationalstructure(EU-25+)
8.6 10.9 11.8
29.9 25.6 22.9
26.025.1 24.1
34.9 37.8 40.6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2006 2015
High-skilled non-manual occupations
Low-skilled non-manual occupations
Skilled manualoccupations
Elementaryoccupations
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Replacement
demand (EU-25+)
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers, shop/market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Expansiondemand
Replacementdemand
Totalrequirements
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualificationtrends(EU-25+)
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Million jobs
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualificationstructure(EU-25+) 32.9
26.220.8
46.248.6
49.9
20.925.3 29.3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2006 2015
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualification structure (Slovenia)
23.9%10.5%
60.5%
60.6%59.2%
15.6%24.1% 30.3%
15.4%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 2006 2015
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualificationchange(EU-25+)
9.5
18
-8
13
13
12.4
13.3
-8.6
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
All qualifications
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
1996-2006
2006-2015
million jobs
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Qualification requirements increase in all occupations – also in elementary jobs
8.3
2.4
0.8
0.9
3.3
1.1
1.5
3.6
-0.4
-2.3
-1.0
-4.8
-5 0 5 10
High-skilled non-manualoccupations
Low-skilled non-manualoccupations
Skilled manualoccupations
Elementary occupations
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
Change 2006 - 2015
million jobs
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Key similarities and differences across countries• Many common trends:
– sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications
• Some differences:– stage of economic development, different
industrial & occupational structures
► process of convergence
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Key findings
Evolutionary structural change towards service sectors and knowledge-intensive jobs
over 13 million additional jobs by 2015– Almost 16 million new jobs in service sector– Loss of over 2 million jobs in the primary
sector and 0,5 million in manufacturing
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Demand for skilled occupations
today 80 out of 210 million people are employed in high skilled non manual jobs. Expected to increase in next decade
jobs requiring generic clerical skills, crafts and agricultural occupations will decline
increases expected in elementary occupations (construction, services)
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Qualification needs by 2015
job gains requiring highly (12,5 million) and medium qualified workers (9,5 million), in particular vocational qualifications
job losses for low qualified workers (8,5 million), even in elementary occupations
in 2015, 30% of jobs will need high qualifications, 50% medium. Low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Results lead to a knowledge and competence based European model that combines needs formedium and high qualifications and
continuing learning and up-skilling in all jobs
workers in elementary occupations but with growing qualifications
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future prioritiesContinuing dialogue: with country experts
and stakeholders
Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data
Further refinement: the models/framework
Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Contact details for further information:
Alena [email protected]
Torsten [email protected]
Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet