_dfp-module-2_v1410
TRANSCRIPT
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MONARCH INSTITUTE PTY LTD
DFP Module 2
Investments
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D: M 2: M I, S & DI: DFP1410 C 20142015
M 2
I P
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 IDCI 6
2.0 EAIG CE 7
3.0 IEE CAE 8
3.1 C 9
T 9
W ? 10
H ? 12
H ? 13
3.2 F I 14
W ? 15
H ? 17
H ? 17
3.3 18
R P 18
C P 18H ? 19
H ? 20
W ? 22
3.4 E 26
T 26
I P O 26
H ? 27
A 27
W ? 28
T 45 D R 30
S 35
I 36
S 38
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4.0 EFACE F AE CAE 41
W R I P 43
4.1 44
4.2 48
4.3 D C A 51
O ' ' 51
W ? 51
D ? 52
A 55
4.4 I 55
W ''? 55
O 57
5.0 DIEIFICAI 59
5.1 59
D 59
M 60
A 60
F 62
I 63
T M 64
M 66
M M W 66
C 67
W ? 69
W ? 70
I 71
5.2 E 75
5.3 I 76
S 77
T 82
I 82
S 82
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6.0 DEADIG CIE EED 84
6.1 C & 85
T 85
C 86C S 100
U 103
7.0 DEIAIE A EIE 108
7.1 ? 109
H ? 109
W ? 110
W ? 110
7.2 F C F C? 110
H ? 113
H F ? 114
M 115
H F 117
7.3 ? 119
W T O? 121W O T? 123
O T 123
H ()? 124
I , , 127
C 128
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AEDI 1 HA DE A AIG AGEC D?
AEDI 2 A CE E FD IE FE
AEDI 3 BAACE FD FAC HEE
AEDI 4 IE AE F E
AEDI 5 I F IG ECE EADHEE
AEDI 6 HE FAI GDHE AD HE AGIC AI E HIAKE
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
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2.0 LEARNING OUTCOMES
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3.0 INVESTMENT CLASSES
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3.1 CASH
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C S P B S (V 1990)
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3.2 FIXED INTEREST
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3.3 PROPERTY
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3.4 EQUITIES
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HAE AD CAIA GH
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G $10,000 1 J 1982 J 2013
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4.0 PERFORMANCE OF ASSET CLASSES
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D93 45% 30% 24% 16% 5%
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D95 20% 13% 27% 19% 8%
D96 15% 14% 7% 12% 8%
D97 12% 20% 42% 12% 6%D98 12% 18% 33% 10% 5%
D99 16% 5% 18% 1% 5%
D00 4% 18% 2% 12% 6%
D01 10% 15% 10% 5% 5%
D02 8% 12% 27% 9% 5%
D03 16% 9% 0% 3% 5%
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A
L
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D04 28% 32% 10% 7% 6%
D05 21% 13% 17% 6% 6%D06 25% 34% 12% 3% 6%
D07 18% 8% 2% 3% 7%
D08 40% 55% 24% 15% 8%
D09 40% 10% 0% 2% 3%
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D11 11% 2% 5% 11% 5%
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REVIEW
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EIGHED E IEE FI
M .
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C :
I A I 1
C A $5,000 (5%) 3%
S A $10,000 (10%) 5%
S B $15,000 (15%) 20%
M F A $30,000 (30%) 12%
M F B $40,000 (40%) 7%
$100,000 (100%) 9.05%
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S A $10,000 (10% ).
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I , :
(5% * 3%) + (10% * 5%) + (15% * 20%) + (30% * 12%) + (40% * 7%) = 9.05%
A $100,000
9.05% ( $9,050) , :
A I 1 (%) 1 ($)
$5,000 3% $150$10,000 5% $500$15,000 20% $3,000$30,000 12% $3,600$40,000 7% $2,800
$100,000 9.05% $9,050
4.1 TIMING THE MARKET
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I $100,000
12 .
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A $100,000 20 D 1990 D
2010. E ,
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A ,
12 .
A 1991, , $125,000,
, .. A . A 1992, , $122,500,
, .. A , .
U , 20 , $100,000
$394,377. T 7.1% . T
.
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I $100,000
Dec 90
Australian
bonds $100,000 Dec 01
Listed
property $308,101
Dec 91
Australian
shares $125,000 Dec 02
Listed
property $345,073
Dec 92
Australian
bonds $122,500 Dec 03
Australian
shares $376,129
Dec 93
Australian
shares $142,100 Dec 04
Listed
property $481,446
Dec 94 Cash $129,311 Dec 05
Australian
shares $544,033
Dec 95
International
shares $139,656 Dec 06
Listed
property $680,042
Dec 96
Australian
shares $149,432 Dec 07
Australian
shares $625,638
Dec 97
International
shares $167,364 Dec 08
Australian
bonds $375,383
Dec 98
International
shares $222,594 Dec 09
Australian
shares $382,891
Dec 99
International
shares $262,660 Dec 10
Australian
bonds $394,377
Dec 00 Listed property $267,914 A 20 7.1%
S: D S & P I
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A
M ,
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A
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F
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BT M
B F
33% 6% 24% 15% 10% 12%
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22% 10% 18% 35% 5% 10%
P B
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32% 6% 28% 10% 8% 16%
H $100,000 D 1990 D 2010,
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A
20 *
V D 2010*
BT M B F 7.82% $450,803
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* T 1990. A 1990
20 .
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T BT F M22:
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I ,
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T , $100,000
1990. A , D
2010 $376,000.
H $100,000
A 1990,
$679,000.
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.
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4.3 DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
ECIG 'IIG HE AKE' BE
S
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, $16
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M I U N
1 $200 $10 20
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T $1000 130
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M I U N
1 $200 $10 20
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5 $200 $10 20
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, , :
83% $120,000 .
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3.0
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AIG DA C AEAGIG IHDAA F FD
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. C,
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HE F F IK
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5.0 DIVERSIFICATION
5.1 PORTFOLIO CHOICES
I ,
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FD AAGE
T
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PASSIVE ACTIVE
Technical Contrarian Quantitative
Valueinvesting
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(macro)
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Top-down(macro)
Bottom-up(micro)
Fundamental
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IEE E DEFIED
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AAGED EAI FD
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HA I A IDE?
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'' . A
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G, S M A
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SMA. C, IMA
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IA
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5.2 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
A E T F (ETF)
A S E. ETF
( , A
), (.. S&P/ASX 200 I).
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ETF (
),
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U , ETF ,
.
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ASX; , LIC
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5.3 INVESTMENT SELECTION
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E: A
A $200,000. Y
50% S 50% F I.24L
1, . N 12 , A (
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?
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ACICA AE ACAI
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.
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6.0 UNDERSTANDING CLIENT NEEDS
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6.1 COMPOUND INTEREST & THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
IE AE F E
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I ,
'
$1,000 $1,000
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.
I $1000.00
I 1 = 8% $1,000 $80.00
I 2= 8% ($1,000 + $80) $86.40
I 3= 8% ($1,000 + $80 + $86.40) $93.31
I 4= 8% ($1,000 + $80 + $86.40 + $93.31) $100.78
$1,360.49
W $1,000
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4 ) $1,360.49.
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,
.
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5 $1,744. B 15,
$18,000 (15 $1,200) $23,477! T
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$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
How Compound Interest Works
$7.744
I = $1,744C =
$41,447I = $23,477C = $18,000
$75,937I = $51,937C = $24,000
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T , J M,
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13 30 . A 30, M
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18 $2,00019 $2,00020 $2,00021 $2,00022 $2,00023 $2,00024 $2,00025 $2,00026 $2,000
27 $2,00028 $2,00029 $2,00030 $2,00031 $2,00032 $2,00033 $2,00034 $2,00035 $2,00036 $2,00037 $2,00038 $2,00039 $2,000
40 $2,00041 $2,00042 $2,00043 $2,00044 $2,00045 $2,00046 $2,00047 $2,00048 $2,00049 $2,00050 $2,00051 $2,000
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A M J
52 $2,00053 $2,00054 $2,00056 $2,000
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E M $26,000 , 65, $1,378,296. M
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A
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D: M 2: M I, S & DI: DFP1410 C 20142015
1) T ($2,000). W
(FV) $2,000 .
2) ( 6%)
3) (4 ).
U ,
.
T T V M M 2
M LMS. S
.
H .
I / $2,000
I ( , )
6.0%
S / 4
$1,584.19
F , ( )
$2,000 6 .. $1,584.19.
U , . N,
. F
) ).
W :
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8 ?)
) $3,000 $2,000?
) $2,000 10 4 ?
) I $12,500 6 7.5 ,
?
A
$1,470.06)
) $2,376.28
) $1,116.79
) $8,099.52
:
T
, . T
, , ,
:
I $60,000 4 . I I 6.5% , I
?
W 6 I . W
$280,000 ,
. W $110,000 7.2% .
W , ,
?
A , .
Y
. U (
),
.
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95
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S
,
.
W ,
/
/.
A
O
. I
( ) , .
T 5
$250 .
O 5 , $1,250. H,
, $1,250
5 .
F
S $250 5
7% . T
5 . W ? T
3 :
1) T , ..
$250
2) (7%)
0 1 2 3 4 5
C $250 $250 $250 $250 $250
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3) (5 ).
U ,
.
T T V M M 2
M LMS. S
.
F 1
I $250
I ( , )
7.0%
S
5
F $1,437.68
F ( ) $250
5 7 ..,
$1,437.68.
U , . N,
. F
) ).W :
14 ?)
) $750 $250?
) 11 5 ?
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) H $1,500
9 8.4 ?
A
$1,652.53)
) $4,313.05
) $3,945,90
) $19,047.03
:
T
, . T
, , ,
:
W $11,000 .
O 1 ,
12 . A
7.4% ,
$11,000 , 12 ?
M . I I
$2,500 ,
10 7% ?
A , .
Y
, . U (
),
.
F
S $300
10 . T 6% . A
$3,000, ($300 10 ),
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.
T
, 3 :
1) T , ..
$300
2) ( 6%)
3) (10 ).
U ,
.
T T V M M 2
M LMS. S
.
1
I $300
I ( , )
6.0%
S
10
$2,208.0
3
F , ( )
$300 10 6
.., $2,208.03.
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99
D: M 2: M I, S & DI: DFP1410 C 20142015
U , . N,
. F
) ).
W :
8 ?)
) $425 $300?
) 12 10 ?
) I $280 7 8.5
, ?
A
$2,013.02)
) $3,128.04
) $2,515.15
) $1,433.18
:
T
, . T
, , ,
:
W .
I , $7,400
6 8.8% , (
) 6 . T
$35,000 . H I
?
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I I
$1 . I . O
3 . T
$450,000 . T $1.1 . A I 8% ,
?
A , .
Y .
T , , .
U ( ),
.
CAE D
F P
.
W
, . A
, , . T
.
A A I
?
C . I
, . T
,
A 4. R
.
I
. I ,
. F
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://../
.?=&=0&=10&
=20000&=6&=1000&1=&=0
W
. C
.
FV .
S I ( PV )
, PMT .
T 4 5
. I , . A
.
P (S )
I (I/Y)
N (N)
A (PMT)
F (FV)
E
B' $100 .
T 12% ,
25 . H
. H ?
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W $100 FV . T
:
P (S ) = $100
I (I/Y) 3% (12% )
N (N) = 100 (25 4 )
A (PMT) = 0
C C
B $1,921 .86
E
A' $1,000 1 , $1,000
$1,000 A 18 . I
8%
A 18?
W FV . T :
P (S ) = $0
I (I/Y) 8%
N (N) = 18
A (PMT) = $1000
C C
A $37,450.24 18
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IG EADHEE
A ,
. A , ,
. I ,
, .
A
. L 30 .
A , . N
7 . Y
? N . I
,
.
S ,
. T . W
.
T M E .
T . E
. A , , . Y
.
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E . A AZ
AAAZ BABZ . D . A . F A1. T A2
A2 B2.
E A1 10. N A2 5. B
A1 + A2 A3 ( )
A1 A2. A =. N
A3 (
) (=A1+A2) . Y
.
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S , * , / . O
, . F
,
, . A . Y' . A , I'
. N . T
' SUM. W SUM
. T
=C2+C3+C4+C5 O =SUM()
.
Y , ,
( )
. I
,
.
E 2003 B
T 23 E.
://../?=8L1OV2ZQ8
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106
D: M 2: M I, S & DI: DFP1410 C 20142015
E 2007 B
T 24 V E 2007. F
' .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3jB4wncJp4
I A 5
.
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IA
Y P C M C M 2
A :
Y M C Q
...
P C F
. Y 2 . P , ,
. T
.
I 2 ,
1300 738 955.
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108
D: M 2: M I, S & DI: DFP1410 C 20142015
7.0 DERIVATIVES AN OVERVIEW
I A S W O S C:
R
.
I , ,
, , . F ,
. F , .
W ?
I ,
,
.
A USA. T
$US , A
.
QANTAS
.
B , . B
.
F , , ,
.
D ,
.
I
8.2
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7.1 WHAT ARE DERIVATIVES?
D ,
, ,
, , . W A
, , ,
, , . D
. D (
) (
).
D .
B ,
, ,
.
S G F C,
. I ,
.W , , ,
. A
, . I , ,
.
H DE HE E F DEIAIE EDCE EIIAE IK?
F
. R (,
, , , , .)
,
( ) .
T
,
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. I
( )
.
HA I HE BEEFI A FI F HAIG E CEAI I HEI
CAH F?
I ( ) (
), ,
.
HA AE HE DIADAAGE F IG DEIAIE?
W ,
(.. ,
Q). I (..
, Q),
. G
, ( ),
.
A , ,
. T
. L
.
7.2 FORWARD CONTRACTS AND FUTURES CONTRACTS?
F
( " ").
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U ( ),
.
E 1: F
A 3,000 6
. T ,
3,000 . A
. T
$4.50 ($13,500 ),
. N . I , 3,000
$13,500. N
( ) .
I ( ) $5.00
,
$4.50. T
$0.50 .
H, $3.00 , .
U
.
W
. T
. O
. T (, .)
. P
, (..
).
F . T
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. T
. O ,
GUARANTEED .
I ,
.
1. F :
T ,
.
L
. H ,
, . H ,
. T
, .
N,
. T ,
, .
2.
E ,
, .
E
. B
,
, 24/7 .
T
. T
,
.
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3. C
C ,
,
.
4.
L , ,
.
H D FE CAC K?
T
. L'
. E , .
Y
. B
. S
. T
.
T , , ' '
. S '
. I ' ,
.
S . T
. T
, ,
,
. T
.
I A,
S &P/ASX 200.
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W , '
. Y' ,
. U
, , ' ' . I ,
/
. W , .
H' . T :
. T . T
. I
,
( ). I , ' ( ).
E
L' ( ). I' J
100 BHP $35
A 1. T $3,500 (100 $35). B
BHP A 1, . L'
BHP $37 M 1. I 100 ,' $3,700, $200 .
T ( ). Y
100 BHP $35 A 1 $3,500.
B BHP $33 M 1. T
. I
M 1, $3,300 ' $3,500.
B , ' $200.
H D FE DIFFE F FAD CAC?
A .
F,
( ). S
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,
. T . T
.
AKIG AKE
T D
S F E. S ,
M 2, $800 . T 100 ,
100 D . T
. T
$5,000 . A
, , ..
.
S M 3, $800 $795.
C 100 $5 = $500. S
,
$500 . W
$500 ? O ,
$500 ( :
, ). T $500 . S
M 4, $802. S
$795 $802
$7, . I $700 (.. 100 $7 = $700)
. T .
M (
) (
). I ,
,
.
I , $5,000
$4,000. L M 11 $795 $788
. T $4,500
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$700, $3,800. S
. T $1,200.
D F
D/
B
M C
M 2 800 5,000
M 3 795 500 5,000 4,500
M 4 802 700 4,500 5,200
M 5 800 200 5,200 5,000
M 6 803 300 5,000 5,300
M 9 801 200 5,300 5,100
M 10 795 600 5,100 4,500
M 11 788 700 4,500 3,800
M 12 788 0 3,800 1,200 5,000
M 13 794 600 5,000 5,600
M 16 789 500 5,600 5,100
M 17 789 0 5,100 5,100
N ,
. N ,
;
.
T .
C
. A , , .
M ( ) . T
. W
,
. T
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(
).
HEDGIG FEIG ECHAGE IK
I
A$
. T ,
. T
A .
E
Y US. Y
US 3 . W , US . Y
A US ( , US
A ). I , US
A . A
US$0.80 / A$1.00, US$1 US$1
0.8 = A$1,250,000. G 3
, .
T 3
US$0.84 / A$1.00. A
A$1,190,476 . T
US ( A
).
T . I US
US . A
A US .
L () 3 US$0.92 / A$1.00.
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W
US$0.84 / A$1.00?
A
T US$0.84 / A$1.00 US$1
0.84 = A$1,190,476.
W ?
A
T US$0.92 / A$1.00 US$1 0.92 = A$1,086,957.
W ?
A
T ( ) $1,190,476 $1,086,957 = A$103,519
S 3 US$0.77 / A$1.00. W
?
A
T US$0.84 / A$1.00 US$1
0.84 = A$1,190,476.
W ?A
T US$0.77 / A$1.00 US$1
0.77 = A$1,298,701.
W ?
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A
T ( ) A$1,190,476 $1,298,701 = A$108,225
A
APPRECIATES
US$0.92 / A$1.00
A
DEPRECIATES
US$0.77 / A$1.00
U A$1,086,957 A$1,298,701
G () A$103,519 A$108,225
H A$1,190,476 A$1,190,476
W (
), A$1,190,476
A
US .
7.3 WHAT ARE OPTIONS?
A / (
) .
I ,
. I, , , / / . O
/
( / )
(). T ,
. I
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. T
. T
.T C P . A C
, P
.
E:
A C B. T A
100 W B 3J $25. T
W $30.
N: C A
.
I W $25 3J, A
B W $25. W
W $25 A
B $25
.
T $25 , , E ( S)
P. T .
T ( 3J) E ( M) D. T
. A ,
.
I , W $30, A
B $25
$30 $5.
A, W $20, B $25
$20 $5. I
, A
. H
B , O P. B ,
, A .
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I , '
. Y B S
.
O .E , A
. M
A . E .
H ADE I?
T :
'.
A , ,
. A
/ .
A , /
. A
/ .
H /
/ / . T
.
A
. T , . T
, , .
R, , . B
, ,
: HEDGING SPECULATING.
The hedgerbuys futures contracts in order to protect him/herself from price swings in the
future. By using futures to lock in a future price for a product, the costs and profits are
more predictable. In other words, the trading of futures drives riskOUT of the business.
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B .
T speculator . S
, CONTRACTS
. T .
H ,
. H , . I
.
E
R
?
1. C
. H ?
2. P . H
. H ?
3. CC P L
. H ?
4. KM S
. H ?
5. ISD L
. H ?
A:
1. C . S
.
2. P . H
.
3. CC P L . W ,
.
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4. K is speculating. The company is putting down capital and resources with the
intent to profit off its investments.
5. ISD L . T
.
HEE AE I ADED?
O ;
) ( ETO' (E T O))
) ( OTC' (O T C
)).
T OTC ,
. T , ,
: $
.
I E
T : C O P O.
C O
.
P O
.
T .. A
. W A $25? T (C P) .
I , A B. A
B. B A
W $25 3 J. T A
$25 .
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B
() .
T ASX F O
, .
H D I EC F DIDE IK HI EAIIG
IDE IK (BEEFI)?
C
S&P/ASX200 . T $50 4,000 .
T
500 4,000 . T
$1,125,000 (2.25% ). T
S&P/ASX200 ( ) ,
$50 ( )
, . W
S&P/ASX 200, 25 . W 500
S&P/ASX200 4,000
500 25 4,000 = $50 .
1 B &/A200 4,000 2,800.
T $50 . I
$35 (2,800/4,000 $50 ). F, 4,000. T
(4,000 ) ( ) 2,800.
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A ,
:
Y
V $35
V
500 25 (4,000 2,800) $15
N $50
T
. T
4,000 . T ,
$50 .
R
. L .
2 B &/A200 4,000 5,500.
T $50 . I
$68.75 (5,500/4,000 $50 ). I , 4,000.
R, . A
, :
Y
V $68.75
V $0
N $68.75
T ,
.
I ,
, . Y
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,
.
S&P/ASX200
DECREASES
2,800
S&P/ASX200
INCREASES
5,500
S $35 $68.75
P $15 N
C $50 $68.75
L $1.125 $1.125
N $48.875 $67.625
O , .
E
I $120 $3.50 ,
$122?
. $2
. $3.50
. $2
. $5.50A ,
$120 $122. T
() . T $3.50
.
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E
S $2.50 3
$50. W $46
?
. 40%
. 50%
. 55%
. 60%
I , $46, .
T $4 $50
$2.50 . T
$4 $2.50 = $1.50.
T / = $1.50/$2.50 = 60%
I HE E, A HE E, F HE E
T ,
.
F ,
' . C,
'
.
A ' . C,
' .
A
' . C,
' .
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E I
I M $12.75, M
$12.75 . A
$12.75 .
E A
I S $40.20, S
$40.20 . A
$40.20 .
E
I D $75.50, D
$75.50 . A
$75.50 .
CCDIG EAK
T . I
,
, .
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IA
Y M C
M 2
A :
Y M C Q
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P C F
.
Y 2 . P , ,
. T
.
I 2 ,
1300 738 955.
O M C ,
M 2.