dfid india climate change overview feb 2005 v2

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment

Everything you didn’t want to know

about climate change, adaptation,

India & the UK

Sean Doolan, Peter Smith

… and a cast of billions

Feb 2005

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Outline

IPCC

Climate facts

CC, MDGs & development

UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol & post-Kyoto

First National Communication by India

UK action

India matters

India vulnerabilities

Adaptation approach

G8 & EC Presidencies by UK

DEFRA, BHC/FCO, DFID

World Bank Trust Fund study in India

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2000+ scientists, peer-review, consensus

World Meteorological Organisation & UNEP

Chaired by Pachauri, TERI

First National Communication by India

DEFRA, BHC/FCO, DFID research

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Climate change facts

IPCC 3, last 100 years

global temperature risen by 0.6

evidence of more extreme rainfall & drought

mountain ice caps retreating , glacial melt & outbursts increasing, snow cover decrease b 10% since 1960s

mean sea level rise by 1-2mm a year in C20

summer & autumn sea ice thinned by 40%

insurance for weather-related events has risen faster than any other sector

2001, Mongolia weather-related losses equal to 18% of Gross National Income


IPCC 3, next 100 years

global temperature rise by 1.4 - 5.8 C

land will warm more (oceans less)

sea level rise by 9 - 88 cm

global precipitation increase, but rainfall & droughts more extreme

by 2080s, further 80 M people flooded every year, another 290 million people at risk of malaria

agricultural productivity decline

poor most vulnerable


Increasing disaster losses

climate change or random?


IPCC 3

physics are clear – greenhouse gases cause warming

warming takes time to start & to stop

GHG concentrations increasing

issue is future impacts, not today’s impacts

possible impacts are large and wide-ranging

future is uncertain – abrupt, synergistic effects - changes in ocean circulation & de-stabilisation of polar ice sheets

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Time lags & action

Some change unavoidable

mitigation of causes is key

adaptation capacity & measures integrated

into national development policies

vulnerability & adaptation, coping strategies

needed for all countries – some key sectors

continual adjustment of risk management

practices

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Climate change & development

Climate change threatens achievement of MDGs

worsening water & food security

diminished agricultural productivity

infrastructure degradation

human settlements affected

habitat & land use shifts

health impacts - increase in vector borne diseases, flooding, deteriorating water quality

population displacement, regional insecurity, “water wars”

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Climate change & MDG 7

Climate change inadequately represented

“Integrate principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources”

Mitigation focus, not adaptation

energy use per $1 GDP

CO2 emissions per capita

proportion of population using solid fuels


Climate change a threat to

development

Improved conditions in some places

But for bulk of world’s poor, climate change will make

daily survival even more difficult

Most important adaptive action is to improve livelihoods of

poorest

Provide better capacity to cope with current pressures –

not just climate

Look ahead at way that all pressures will change in

future

Climate change will be an important component of

those pressures

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Responses

Climate change risks must be factored into

development investment

Tools

research into impacts of climate change

piloting adaptation techniques

mainstreaming risk-reduction into development

assistance

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment International commitment

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Goal - to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at safe levels

“common, but differentiated responsibilities”

all parties commit to report & take action

developed (annex 1) countries commit to reduction targets & timelines (e.g. - 1990 levels by 2005)

developed countries provide assistance

periodic review, revision of commitments

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Kyoto & “post-Kyoto”

Kyoto Protocol provides framework for

international action but only a step

need wider, more comprehensive approach

“UK will help secure an effective and equitable

balance between the economic growth needs

of developing countries and the need to

achieve global emissions reductions”

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment UK commitments

UK met UNFCCC target by 2000

- reduced GHG emissions by 15.3% from 1990 to 2002

- reduced CO2 by 8% from 1990 to 2002

- target of 20% below 1990 GHGs by 2010

- reduce CO2 by 60% below current levels by 2050

Hadley Centre - regional climate model (PRECIS)

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment India matters

Number of people in poverty

Degree of vulnerability

Economic size & rate of growth

Emissions & future emissions

• India and China will be major determinants

of future climate change

Great scientific & technical capacity

Leadership role in G77 & “G4”

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment India & climate change

India one of most vulnerable countries – UN

Disaster Risk Index 2004

G77 leadership role

“common but differentiated responsibilities”

Clean Development Mechanism (carbon

offsetting) leader

4% global emissions, 6% by 2020

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Decoupling growth & emissions

per capita CO2 levels far lower than north

emissions intensity (CO2 per unit of GDP) increasing since 1990, converging with north

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Carbon intensity of economy

India

UK

India UK

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

CO2 per capita CO2 per GDP

India

China

United States

UK

EU average


Karnataka

farm productivity variability

rainfall

yield

profit/loss


Plunging water tables


Retreat of Gangotri glacier

Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/gangotri_ast_2001252_lrg.jpg

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/gangotri_ast_2001252_lrg.jpg


Annual maximum temperatures (1969-1990 and 2040-2060)

trend analysis Station Dehradun

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

0 10 20 30 40 50Years

Tem

pera

ture

(d

eg

C)

Annual minimum temperature (1969-1990 & 2040-2060) &

trend analysis

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

0 10 20 30 40 50Years

Min

imu

m t

em

pera

ture

(Deg

C)

Annual rainfall (1969-1990 and 2040- 2060) &

trend analysis

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

0 10 20 30 40 50

Years (1969-74;1976-87;1991;1993;1998;2041-

2060)

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

(1969) (2060)(1979) (1993) (2049)

Temperature & rainfall

trends, Uttaranchal


Monthly Average rainfall for two time periods -

Dehradun station

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Months (January - December)

Rain

fall (

mm

)

Average monthly (1970-1998) Average monthly (2040-60)

Rainfall shifts, Uttaranchal

Implications for growing season & cropping


ECHAM4

HadCM2

CGCM1

Impacts on

cereal production

potential on currently

cultivated land 2080s

TERI

Who is most

vulnerable?

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Cyclones map

Increasing

frequency &

intensity

Days of

disruption to

fishing

Storm surges

Infrastructure

impacts - siting

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Vulnerability index for Indian coastline

share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district

share of population affected in total population of district

district level index of relative development

district level index of relative infrastructure development

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and

cover• Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and

labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and

fertility

Technological vulnerability

• Irrigation• Infrastructure

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Climate sensitivity index

Observed (1961-90) HadRM2 (2 x CO2)

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity +

Climate sensitivity

(monsoon dependence & aridity)

Adaptive capacity + Trade

sensitivity (port distance & import-sensitive crops)


Jhalawar, Rajasthan

• drought prone

• low irrigation coverage,

literacy, infrastructure

Chitradurga,

Karnataka

• water scarcity

• proximity to city

• contract farming

and exports

Anantapur,

Andhra Pradesh

• semi-arid

• response of groundnut

farmers to import

competition

Jagatsingpur, Orissa

• cyclones, river floods

• loss of mangroves

• high population density

• acute poverty

• proximity to port

Raipur, Chattisgarh

• rice belt of central India

• crop diversification

• low literacy, infrastructure


Climate variability & change:

STREAM model

Implications for future national & regional water availability

increased snowmelt & glacial melt, higher monsoon peak discharges, more pronounced droughts

sea level rise, increased salt intrusion, coastal habitat degradation

So:

food & water shortages

increased population pressure

increased vulnerability, decreased coping capacity


G-M-B basin:

water availability 2000 vs 2050

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Increased water tensions

Increased competition for water - local to

international scale

Regional tensions over transboundary

rivers

Intra-state (e.g. Andhra Pradesh)

Inter-state (India, Pakistan)

Inter-country (India, Pakistan, Nepal,

Bhutan, Bangladesh)

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment “Conventional” adaptation

Adaptation an additional cost to be funded by

those responsible

High uncertainty in climate projections

Collaborative links with international

organisations

Improve projections of climate change

Identify hot spots

Understand traditional coping strategies

Build capacity in all sectors

Mainstream adaptation into development


Usual outcome

Assess literature

Assess current & future vulnerability

Increase local forecasting capacity

(downscaling)

Assess institutional structures

Develop adaptation options

Costing & prioritising

Implement priorities

Monitor & assess outcomes

Compare lessons learnt

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Messages

Based on these major points

Urgency - climate change occurring now

Climate change a threat to development

Know enough about climate change to make sensible decisions about adaptation now

Climate risk management & development perspective approaches

Can we assess costs of adaptation?

What are critical next steps?


DFIDI - World Bank

Trust Fund study

Scoping study on vulnerability & adaptation

2005 completion

4 components

coping strategies

vulnerabilities & impacts

response options

screening tool for programmes


India – Current coping strategies

Component 1: What are coping strategies of

populations most affected by current climate

variability & extremes, how effective are they, how are

these affected by government policies & programmes,

& can current coping strategies & policies be

strengthened?

Select three areas (c. State size) – drought & flood

(AP, Or, Raj)

Review & scoping of questions

Advisory group & expert panels

Case studies & surveys

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment India – Tool box

Component 2: How is climate projected to change at regional level & what are projected impacts on water resources & agriculture? Which regions and community groups are most vulnerable to climate induced changes in water resources & agriculture, & which coping strategies might need to be enhanced or modified to deal with projected changes?

Revised projections well under way

Extension of existing hydrological modelling to better deal with human interventions

New agricultural modelling


India – Explore some

response options

Component 3: What are most important response options available to all institutions, including GoI & the WB but also state regional and local institutions, to reduce vulnerability of communities to climate variability and change?

Stakeholder consultation to select range of response options to explore

Explore options with toolbox & expertise built up in developing it

Will team have the capacity to consider the multiple pressures?

Some exploratory cost–benefit analysis

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Good practice guidance

Component 4: How and where does climate variability and change pose a threat (or opportunity) to Bank and other development projects, and what constitutes good practice in managing these threats and opportunities?

Look back at past projects – where has adaptation been considered/missed

Look ahead at pipeline of projects – where should adaptation be taken into account

Indian governments & stakeholders engaged in a similar process

Begin to build up body of best practice guidance

Develop screening & design tool

Synthesis– short, technical and non-technical versions

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Restated message

Urgency – message for all governments & sectors

Climate change occurring now

We are all affected – G8 message

Early action can avoid many of the impacts

The poor are currently, & in future, the most severely affected Often live in marginal areas

Least resources to cope

Least resources to adapt

Most vulnerable to shocks

DFID Department forInternationalDevelopment Core principles

Climate risk management approach

– assess & act upon threats & opportunities from

both existing & future climate variability,

including climate change effects, in all project &

country level activities

Development perspective

- adaptation recognized as part of development

process & not separate

dfid india climate change overview feb 2005 v2

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