devon funds management trip...nestle (incl. wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017...

13
Devon Funds Management China Research Trip March 2018

Upload: others

Post on 07-Jun-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Devon Funds Management

China Research TripMarch 2018

Page 2: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

2

PreludeATM 1H18 result

128

168

206

233

304

830 38 51

114

3 15 12 9 16

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18

a2Milk Sales by Geographic Segment – NZ$m

ANZ China UK & US

A

A) Consensus pre-result 1H18 China Sales (c. NZD75mn)

35

50

70

85

116

18

14 19

48

-8 -12 -8-15

-8

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18

a2Milk EBITDA by Geographic Segment – NZ$m

ANZ China UK & US

EBITDA Margin (%)1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18

ANZ 27% 30% 34% 36% 38%China 14% 27% 37% 37% 42%UK & US -281% -80% -65% -161% -52%

Source: Devon/Company financials

Page 3: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projectFocus

3

Investigate retail penetration Understand Competitive dynamic City tier differentiation (Shanghai vs Xuzhou) Pricing Brand acceptance

Page 4: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projectResearch methodology

4

Two analysts to China Shenci Tang (Devon analyst) – store level

Visit retail stores Interview staff Observe pricing Interact with WeChat groups Understand buying behaviour Observe store inventory Observe inter-tier city sales dynamic

Page 5: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

5

China research tripResearch methodology - locations visited

Trip OverviewCity Tier Stores VisitedHong Kong SAR 21Shenzhen 1 11Guangzhou 1 3Shanghai 1 21Hangzhou 2 7Xuzhou 3 8Total 71

Source: Devon

Page 6: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

DaiGou CBEC Hong Kong eCommerce MBS

¥210 ¥239 ¥239

¥210

¥245 ¥235 ¥263 ¥263

¥238

¥428 ¥428 ¥398

¥458 ¥458

¥398

¥-

¥100

¥200

¥300

¥400

¥500

¥600

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

6

China findingsResearch methodology - a2 Milk pricing dynamics across channels

English Labelled Chinese Labelled

Woolworths Pricing (RMB135)Source: Devon

Page 7: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Online Platforms

China findingsResearch methodology - Mainland a2Milk infant formula vendor profiles

7

Geographic Reach

Prod

ucts

Ran

ge

Premium Supermarkets

Regional MBSIndividual MBS

Source: Devon

Page 8: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

China findingsResearch methodology - a2Milk infant formula buyer profiles

8

Buyer HK Buyers Tier 1 City Mothers

Tier 2 City Mothers Tier 3 City Mothers

DaiGou Chinese Mothers

Preferred Channel Chained Pharmacies(i.e. Watsons)

DaiGou, premiumsupermarkets, MBS

DaiGou, premium supermarket, online, MBS

Premium super market, MBS Local MBS

How did you hear about a2? Clients’ demand Online forums, word of mouth

Price profile HKD250 - HKD550 RMB200 – RMB450 RMB200 – RMB450 RMB350 and above RMB250 and below

Understanding of a2 USP No No No No No

Reason for buying Clients’ demand It’s from overseas and many others around me use it

The most expensive infant formula

Tier 1 city mothers buy it, so I want it

Source: Devon

Page 9: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projectResearch methodology

9

Mark Brown (Devon CIO) – Macro level Understand regulatory environment Producer meetings

Nestle Yashili Bellamy Blackmore

Online meetings JD.com Amazon China

Consumer panel

Page 10: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projecta2Milk IP?

10

Source: a2Milk investor presentation

Page 11: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projectNestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room

11

(%) 2015 2016 2017Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1 Abbott 6.9 7.5 6.9 Biostime 5.9 5.8 5.5 Yili 4.9 5.0 5.2 Beingmate 4.9 4.6 4.8 Nestle 3.9 3.8 4.0 Firums 3.5 3.6 3.5 * Source: Nielson

Source: Devon

Page 12: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

Infant formula - China research projectSummary/other observations

12

Consumers have no real understanding of organic or A2 Formula then provenance are the key consumer factors ATM brand well recognised ATM instore merchandising good but is Illuma excellent Sales assistants are key in retail – Illuma 7,000 : ATM 700 Illuma in 40,000 stores vs ATM 7,000 Illuma marketing spend $300m+ vs ATM $35m (next half) Regulation still cloudy – government dept. consolidation Corporate Dàigòu not trusted – perception of fakes

Page 13: Devon Funds Management Trip...Nestle (incl. Wyeth) - the elephant in the room 11 (%) 2015 2016 2017 Wyeth 13.6 14.8 14.3 Nutricia 13.1 11.0 10.6 MJ 9.2 9.6 9.7 Friesland 7.1 7.6 8.1

This document is not a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) under New Zealand law or under any other law. It is for information purposes only and contains summarised information. Accordingly, this document neither purports to be exhaustive nor contains all of the information which a prospective investor or the recipient may require to make an investment decision. This document does not contain all of the information which would otherwise be required by New Zealand law or any other law to be disclosed in a PDS or similar disclosure document required under foreign law. Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant.

A PDS for the fund/s mentioned in this presentation is available free from Devon Funds Management Limited. Investors should read and understand the PDS for the relevant fund(s) in which they invest and satisfy themselves they understand all the terms and conditions of investment in the fund/s. The information in this document is not intended to be advice. In preparing this document, Devon Funds Management Limited did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Devon Funds Management Limited recommends that potential investors consult their financial adviser and obtain professional financial advice on their individual requirements before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in any of the Devon Funds are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and capital invested. Neither Devon nor any related company of Devon, guarantees any particular rate of return on, or the performance of, the Devon Funds, nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from the Devon Funds.

13