development scenarios of estonian district heating …€¦ · estonia more then 1/3 of district...
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TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
Dr.sc.ing. Anna Volkova, senior researcherAss.prof. Eduard Latõšov, prof.Andres SiirdeDepartment of Energy Technologies Tallinn University of Technology
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF ESTONIAN DISTRICT HEATING REGIONS
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MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH
Estonian energy policy
DH inEstonia 65%
ObligotaryDH regions
Consumerinforming isimportant
Promotingmobile APP for DH inEstonia
1•Current DH
2• Individual heating
3•Future DH Planning:
*consumption*transition*production
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CHARESTERISTICS OF DH REGIONS
• 145 regions have been analysed• from 0.25GWh to 1 585 GWh• medium sales 225 GWh• price ~53 €/MWh
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LENGTH OF DH REGION PIPES
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CHANGES
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consumption transitionproduction
New consumers
Energyefficiencyincrease
Network renovation/replacement
Temperaturelowering
Productionefficiencyincrease energy
mix
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Consumption will be decreased by 30% in 2030(Estonian Energydevelopment plan) renovation of existing building new building are nearly zero energy
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consumption
Decrease of consumption will not be so fast Buildings with individual heating in DH region will have to connect to
DH New urban areas
Heat production in Tallinn district heating region: forecasts and reality
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Collected data: yearly relative heat losses, length and average diameter of the networks, the share of pre-insulated pipes, supply and return temperature
Assumptions All old pipes will be
renovated and replaced by pre-insulated pipes
Supply and return temperature will be reduced
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transition
*V.Mašatin, E.Latõšov, A.VolkovaEvaluation Factor for District Heating Network Heat Loss with Respect to Network Geometry, Energy Procedia, 95, 2016
pre-insulated <20%
21.6%
Pre-insulated from 20% to 50%
22.3%preinsulated from 50% to 80%
22.3%
Pre-insulated >80%
33.8%
SHARE OF PRE-INSULATED PIPES
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
current after renovation after renovation& toC lowering
Heat losses in district heating networkswith length <1000m
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
current after renovation after renovation& toC lowering
Heat losses in district heating networkswith length 1 000…10 000 m
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
current after renovation after renovation& toC lowering
Heat losses in district heating networkswith length >10 000 m
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Generator and coke oven gas 1010 1070 1050 1090 3280 4069 3876 3248 2056 2397Heavy fuel oil 176 143 174 66 31 13 9 13 41 25Diesel oil 1 11 9 112 120 169 158 195 85 109Shale oil 2423 2204 2468 3007 2853 1951 1876 1634 1386 1047Natural gas 17509 15494 16324 14933 15746 12244 12023 10021 9429 9233Oil shale 5154 4531 4790 4077 4046 3695 3665 3261 2858 3012Peat 1687 1648 1649 1419 1211 1074 1011 950 1006 1137Biogas 50 52 51 53 51 182 136 258 126 68Other biomass 500 300 400 937 1002 1312 1314 1296 1309 3009Wood 8216 9300 11664 13638 11462 11375 11773 12484 18865 18684
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Fuel consumption for heat generation, TJ
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production
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Wood fuel >80%no Wood fuel <80%no noWood fuel 100%
Productionefficiency
is high
yes
Recalculatefuelconsumption
no
Additionalinnovative
options
yes
yes
Wood fuel ↓Non-fuel source ↑
yes
Wood fuel 100%
no
No need inpeak
boilers
yes
yes
Can bereplacedfully bywood
yes
yes
Can bereplacedpartly by
wood
Cannot bereplaced by
woodno no
Additionalinnovative
options
Existing fuel mix↓Non-fuel source ↑
yes
Existing fuel mix isthe same
no
Productionefficiency
is high
yes
Recalculatefuelconsumption
yes
3-5 large regions, calculatedmanually
yes
no
yesyes
production
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WHY CANT BE REPLACED
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Systems
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• Peat production -7 DH regions
• Oil shale power plant -1 DH region
• Shale oil production plant: waste heat /gas 6 DH regions
• Biogas -2 DH regions
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RESULTS
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MWh/MWh fin.consumed
a- current situationb- consumption decreasec- consumption and heat losses decreased- consumption, heat losses decrease and efficiency increasee- d + fuel replacement if possible
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SHARE OF CARBON NEUTRAL DISTRICT HEATING REGIONS (145 DHR)
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34%
Current situation
47%
Consumption is reduced
50%
Consumption and heat losses are reduced
72%
11%
Consumption and heat losses are reduced, fuel replaced
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CONCLUSSION
Heat consumption reduction in building and network sector can make DH region carbonneutral without changes in heat production
Wood conversion (boilers and CHP) is still the priority option for sustainable DH inEstonia
More then 1/3 of district heating regions in Estonia are already decarbonized
When due to consumption and heat loss reduction, there is still need for low capacity peak boilers it will not be replaced and fossil fuel boilers remain for reserve and peak loads
Based on collected data (for mobile app) regarding existing situation generalisedapproach has been developed for calculating parameters, needed for app module
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TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGYDepartment of Energy [email protected]