development plan of the electric power system and
TRANSCRIPT
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DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM AND TRANSMISSION GRID 2020-2029
June, 2020Vilnius
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION / 5
1. OVERVIEW OF THE LITHUANIAN ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM AND THE ELECTRICITY MARKET IN 2019 / 7
2. RESEARCH AND STUDIES / 12
3. FORECAST OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND MAXIMUM POWER DEMAND OF THE SYSTEM / 14
4. TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENT IN 2029 / 18
5. DEVELOPMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE ADEQUACY OF GENERATION CAPACITY / 20
5.1. Development of generation capacity / 20
5.2. Assessment of PS adequacy in Lithuania in 2020–2030 / 22
6. ELECTRICITY MARKET CALCULATIONS / 28
7. TRANSMISSION NETWORK PROJECTS / 29
7.1. Connection of the Lithuanian PS to the CEN for synchronous operation / 29
7.2. 330–110 kV projects for ensuring the reliability of the transmission network and increasing the security of electricity supply (new construction) / 30
7.3. 330–110 kV projects to ensure the reliability of the transmission network and increase the security of electricity supply (reconstruction) / 31
7.4. Projects at the initiative of electricity network users / 31
8. THE NEED FOR INVESTMENT FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSMISSION NETWORKS IN 2020–2029 / 32
9. ACTIVITIES OF ENTSO-E / 34
10. RESEARCH, EXPERIMENTAL DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION ACTIVITIES / 35
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INTRODUCTIONsystem operator in Europe. To achieve this, an advanced TSO must have the following features: manage change and have a clear vision for the future power system; be interested in the latest development trends in all areas of their activity and be able to prioritize new technologies that are implemented in accordance with good business practices; be responsible (towards society, ecology and the economy) and consider itself a part of a larger system; manage risks and take responsibility for creating benefits for the society; attract talent and have a clear strategy for managing it; cooperate in the development of cross-sectoral integration of electricity, gas and heat markets.
The long-term development of the transmission network is carried out taking into account the application of new advanced technologies, research results, recommendations of scientific institutions and external organizations. To this end, the TSO periodically assesses the condition of transformer substations (TS) and electricity transmission lines (ETL), analyses the actual load of electrical transmission network, thus determining the least loaded substations and lines. Together with the energy distribution operator (ESO) decides on the need for construction of new electricity network facilities, reconstruction or dismantling opportunities of existing facilities, conducts research and analysis, commissions external studies. To ensure the reliability of work, the Company follows the main criterion assessing the reliability of operation of PS - (N-1)1. Cost optimization is performed taking into account the management assets and operating modes of electricity transmission network and network planning. The Company transmits high-quality electricity in accordance with the requirements of international quality standards (LST EN 50160) and the descriptions prepared by the Company. The construction of individual network elements (new ETL or transformer substation) is based on the assessment of possible technical alternatives and the economic and financial comparison of alternatives (cost-benefit analysis).
By implementing the projects of national and regional significance provided for in the Plan, in order to fully integrate into the European electricity market and to ensure uninterrupted and reliable supply of electricity to consumers, the company will contribute to the implementation of the NEIS goals, reliable electricity supply and transmission to consumers will be ensured in the perspective of 10 years, the transmission network will be restored in a timely manner and developed rationally (the minimum system reliability indicators (average interruption time (AIT) and amount of energy not delivered (END)) shall not exceed those established during the regulatory period of the State Energy Regulatory Council), consistent optimization and modernization of electricity infrastructure will be ensured, the responsible institutions will be informed about the generation adequacy perspective at the national and regional level, the implementation of infrastructure projects will be coordinated, the long-term need for investment funds and project financing opportunities will be assessed. In this way, benefits will be created, and quality services will be provided not only to the customers of the Company, but also to consumers throughout Lithuania.
ABBREVIATIONS
IPS/UPS – Power system characterized by synchronous operation of power systems of the Baltic states, Russia and CIS, Interconnected Power System/Unified Power System
ECN – European Continental Network
LOLE – Loss of Load expectation
LOLP – Loss of Load probability
NEIS – National Energy Independence Strategy
PCI – Project of Common Interest
PP – Power Plant
RES – Renewable Energy Sources
SC – Synchronous Compensator
TS – Transformer Substation
TSO – Transmission System Operator
TYNDP – ENTSO-E Ten Year Network Development Plan
VoLL – Value of Lost Load
WPP – Wind Power Plant
Pursuant to the Law on Electricity of the Republic of Lithuania, the electricity transmission system operator (TSO) is responsible for the stability and reliability of operation of the electric power system, the performance of the national balancing function and the provision of system services in the territory of the Republic of Lithuania, operation, maintenance, management and development of the transmission network of the power system (PS) and interconnectors with the power systems of other countries, reducing the capacity constraints in the transmission networks and taking into account the needs of the power system and electricity network users. Operator of the electricity transmission system must also forecast the long-term power balance of the electricity system and provide market participants with information on the expected shortage or limitation of the generation or transmission capacity.
The stability, reliability, power and energy balances of the PS depend not only on the behaviour of market participants, but also on the determination of the appropriate parameters of the operation of the connected power plants, coordination of the power plants and timely development. Therefore, LITGRID, SC (hereinafter – the Company), as the transmission system operator (TSO) of Lithuania, must not only properly manage the electricity transmission network, but also take care of the entire power system: plan the long-term operation of the PS, taking into account the requirements of security of supply, quality, efficiency, consumption, management and environmental protection. For this purpose, a 400-110 kV network development plan of PS of Lithuania is being prepared (hereinafter – the Plan), the main objective of which is to assess the current state of the PS and to anticipate the possible changes in demand of electricity and power, generating power and generation, ensuring the adequacy of the system in the long run, foreseeing transmission network development directions, scope of reconstruction, determining indicative investments for network development and reconstruction, preparing the necessary data for the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) prepared by the European Network of Transmission System Operators – Electricity (ENTSO-E). The Plan is prepared in accordance with the National Energy Independence Strategy (NEIS), provisions of Directive 2009/72/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 July 2009, the strategy of the electricity transmission system operator LITGRID, SC for 2019–2028, recommendations of ENTSO-E and the provisions of other regulatory acts defining the activities and principles of the TSO and PS.
Constant changes in the power system and the responsibilities assumed before the consumers encourage the Company to improve, streamline its operations and take on the challenges prevailing in the rapidly and greatly changing modern environment. By implementing new intelligent management-oriented systems, the most advanced management models and following the good regional and international practices, the Company aims to become a modern and advanced company with a long-term development vision – to become the most advanced electricity transmission
1 (N-1) criterion – it is the ability of the electricity system to ensure the static and dynamic stability of the electricity system in the event of the loss of one of the elements operating in the system (transformers, electricity generating sources, etc. present in ETL)
SC – Stock Company
BEMIP – Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan
BRELL – Power ring of Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
BtB – Back-to-Back
CEF – The Connecting Europe Facility
CL – Cable Line
ENTSO-E – European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity
PS – Power System
ESO – Energy distribution operator
ETL – Electricity Transmission Line
EU – The European Union
JSC – Join Stock Company
GDP – Gross Domestic Product
HPSPP – Hydro Pumped Storage Power Plant
HVDC – High Voltage Direct Current
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KEY DATA OF THE LITHUANIAN POWER SYSTEM
The electricity transmission grid of Lithuania consists of 400-110 kV transformer substations connected by high-voltage electricity transmission lines. Electricity generated across Lithuania’s power plants or imported from other electric power systems transmits to the distribution grids via the transmission network and further to the users of electricity. In 2019, the total installed capacity of transfor-mers was 5,385.6 MVA (excluding converter autotransfor-mers), the total length was approximately 7,190 km.
The following TSO projects were completed in 2019: the 330 kV Bitėnai TS was expanded, and the 110 kV switchyard of 110 kV Grigiškės TS was reconstructed. The System Control and Data Centre Security project has also been completed.
During the project of optimization and preparation of the north-eastern Lithuanian electricity transmission network for synchronous operation with the continental European energy system in 2019, part of the 330 kV OL Ignalina NPP–Minsk CHP (Belarus) was dismantled (approximately 8.5 km in the territory of Lithuania). Furthermore, the existing 2x175 MVA autotransfor-mers of 330 kV Vilnius TS were replaced with new ones
(2x300 MVA) (the investment project “Increasing the capacity of 330/110/10 kV Vilnius TS and Alytus TS” is being continued) in 2019.
The following projects initiated by electricity network users were also completed during 2019: construction of 10/110 kV Biruliškės TS, connection of 103 MW co-generation power plant to Vilnius PP No.3 110 kV switchyard, etc. All these projects were implemented at the expense of electricity network users.
In 2019, the highest daily energy consumption was recorded on 24/01/2019 and amounted to 41 GWh. The lowest daily energy consumption was recorded on 21/04/2019 and amounted to 26 GWh.
The maximum required capacity was recorded on 24/01/2019 at 9-10 am and amounted to 2032 MWh per hour (when severe cold prevailed), and the lowest – on 14/07/2019 at 5–6 am and amounted to 860 MWh per hour.
The final consumption of electricity according to con-sumers sectors is shown in Figure 1.
1. OVERVIEW OF THE LITHUANIAN ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM AND THE ELECTRICITY MARKET IN 2019
The final electricity consumption in Lithuania in 2019 was 11.145 TWh, and the total electricity consump-tion, taking into account the technological costs of electricity network operators, which in 2019 amoun-ted to 1.009 TWh, was 12.155 TWh. Compared to 2018, final electricity consumption decreased slightly (0.3 percent). Although the total electricity consumption increased by only 0.4 percent, it is the highest total electricity consumption in a decade. In 2019, the lar-gest increase in electricity consumption was recorded in the industrial sector (an increase of 1.2 percent). This sector continues to account for the largest share of final consumption. Consumption in the households
and transport sectors decreased by 2.6 and 5.5 percent respectively. The final consumption in the ser-vices sector, as well as in agriculture, remained stable in 2019. The transport sector has the lowest share of final electricity consumption (about 0.10 TWh) among all sectors, despite the fact that consumption in this sector grew by 5.5 percent in 2019.
On 31 December 2019, the total installed capacity of the power plants operating in the Lithuanian po-wer system was 3,699 MW. Compared to data of 31 December 2018, the total installed capacity of power plants increased by 0.4 percent.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2019 (fact) 2029 (plan)
Total electricity consumption (including grid losses) TWh 12.16 14.7
Maximum demand for capacity during peak load MW 2032 2466
Installed/available capacity of power plants, total: MW 3699/3564 5146/5079
Thermal power plants: MW 1914*/1790* 770/739
Lithuanian PP MW 1045*/1002* 445/432
Vilnius PP No.3 MW 360*/324* 0
Kaunas PP MW 170*/148* 0
Panevėžys PP MW 35/32 35/32
Other PP MW 304/284 290/275
Kruonis HPSPP MW 900/900 900/900
Power plants using RES: MW 863/853 3406/3380
Kaunas HPP MW 101/99 101/99
Small HPP MW 27/27 27/27
Wind PP MW 534/534 2206**/2206**
Solar PP (incl. producing consumers) MW 103/103 895/895
Biofuel PP: MW 98/90 177/153
Biomass PP: MW 63/55 142/117
• Vilnius PP No.2 MW 29/22 29/22
• Vilnius co-generation PP (biomass unit) MW - 79/63
• Šiauliai PP MW 11/9 11/9
• Small biomass PP MW 23/23 23/23
Biogas PP MW 35/35 35/35
Waste PP: MW 22/21 70/60
• Vilnius co-generation PP (waste unit) MW - 22/16
• Klaipėda „Fortum“ (Lypkiai TS) MW 21/20 21/20
• Fortum co-generation PP (Kaunas, Biruliškės TS) MW - 26/23
• Small waste PP MW 1/1 1/1
High voltage lines: km 7190.1 7887
400 kV overhead*** km 102.7 102.7
330 kV overhead*** km 1864.0 2350
110 kV overhead*** km 4982.6 5110
300 kV DC subsea cable km 134.3 274.3
300/330 kV cable km 13.2 35
110 kV cable km 93.3 110
HVDC converters/converter station vnt. 2 3
High voltage transformer substations: vnt. 235 255
400 kV transformer substations vnt. 1 1
330 kV transformer substations/switchyards vnt. 15 17
110 kV transformer substations/switchyards vnt. 219 237Average price for electricity at Lithuanian electricity marketexchange EUR/MWh 46.1
* Including and units which are in reserve or preserved ** Including and 700 MW offshore wind PP *** Overhead line length is measured by summing up the length of all the circuits
IndustryService sector
HouseholdsAgriculture
Transport
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10
8
6
4
2
0
Twh
Fig. 1. The final electricity consumption in 2010–2019 by consumers sectors
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* estimating that reserve and preserved units that have been temporarily decommissioned but the equipment has not been dismantled ** depending on the type of fuel burned, they could be renewable or non-renewable waste
According to the data provided during the annual survey of major electricity producers, the installed capacity of major power plants has not changed since the beginning of 2019. All changes occurred in the in generating capacities connected to ESO networks. The largest growth was in solar energy – in 2019, addi-tional 20 MW of solar power plants were connected. The capacity of wind and biomass power plants incre-ased by a minimum of 1 MW each, while the capacity of biogas power plants decreased by 6 MW, as did the capacity of other thermal power plants. Total capacity of generating sources installed in the system increa-sed by 15 MW in 2019 compared to 2018.
It is important to mention that from 2015 with the advent of bilateral electricity accounting in Lithu-ania, the number of consumers producing electri-city has started to increase. In 2018, the volume of development of generation capacity of generating consumers was 9.17 MW, and in 2019, the capacity of generating consumers increased by another 20.3
MW, thus the total capacity reached 29.8 MW.
In 2019, the share of consumed electricity produced in Lithuania increased by as much as 13 percent, com-pared to 2018, and amounted to 3.64 TWh. Almost two thirds of all generation in the country consisted of production from renewable energy sources (Fig. 2). Approximately 0.34 TWh of electricity was genera-ted by hydro power plants (excluding the production of Kruonis HPSPP), 1.45 TWh by wind power plants, another approximately 0.54 TWh was produced by solar power, biomass, biogas and waste power plants. The rest of electricity (0.73 TWh) was generated by conventional fuel power plants. In 2019, a larger share of the country’s electricity consumption (approxima-tely 80 percent of the total electricity consumption or approximately 72 percent of the total electricity demand, i. e. after estimating the electricity used for pumping Kruonis HPSPP) was imported. Compared to 2018, 41 percent of electricity entering Lithuania was imported from EU countries, the remaining 59 percent
Although the 400-110 kV electricity transmission networks are quite well developed in Lithuania, a si-gnificant part of the electricity network equipment has reached or even exceeded the service life. This greatly affects the reliability of operation of the entire PS. To solve this problem, the Company formulates and develops strategies for the reconstruction of trans-former substations and power transmission lines and methodologies for assessing the condition of indivi-dual equipment, periodically assesses the condition of TS and ETL, analyses the actual load of electricity transmission network and initiates infrastructure reconstruction and development projects.
The reliability of electricity supply through trans-mission networks is assessed by two indicators:
• ENS or END (Energy not supplied/delivered) – the amount of electricity not supplied through the trans-mission network due to power supply interruptions in the transmission system (MWh);
• AIT (Average interruption time) – average interrup-tion time, which shows the average duration of inter-ruption in the transmission system (min.).
State Energy Regulatory Council (Council) established such minimum levels of confidence for the Company for the peri-od of 2016-2020: ENS = 6.3 MWh and AIT = 0.29 min.
Amount of electricity not transmitted (supplied) by the electricity transmission network and duration of inter-ruption in 2019 presented in Table 2.
2 Elektros energiją gaminantis vartotojas – tai fizinis arba juridinis asmuo, įsirengęs atsinaujinančių išteklių technologijų elektrinę ir gaminantis elektrą savo reikmėms, o nesuvartotą elektros kiekį pateikiantis į tinklus ir, esant poreikiui, ją susigrąžinantis iš tinklų
– from third countries, i. e. sections of Kaliningrad and Belarus. Most of electricity imported from the neighboring EU countries – as much as 28 percent – came via “Nordbalt” from Sweden, 10 percent from Latvian and 3 percent via “LitPol Link” connection. Almost 21 percent of the final consumed electricity
was produced from renewable energy sources (exclu-ding the costs of Kruonis HPSPP and networks. The national balance of electricity demand and generation can be found https://www.litgrid.eu/index.php/power-system/power-system-information/national-electrici-ty-demand-and-generation/3523.
Power plants & their generating sources Installed capacity in 2018, MW
Installed capacity in 2019, MW Change, %
Thermal PP: 1915 1914 0.05
Lithuanian PP 1045* 1045*
Vilnius PP No.3 360* 360*
Kaunas PP 170* 170*
Panevėžys PP 35 35
Other thermal PP 305 304 0.3
Kruonis HPSPP 900 900
Power plants using RES: 847 863 1.9
Hydro PP: 128 128
• Kaunas hydro PP 101 101
• Small hydro PP 27 27
Wind PP 533 534 0.2
• connected to transmission grid 433 433
• connected to distribution grid 100 101 1
Biomass PP 62 63 1.6
Biogas PP 41 35 -14.6
Solar PP 83 103 24
Waste PP** 22 22
TOTAL: 3684 3699 0.4
Table 1. Changes of power plants capacities, MW
Indicator Reason forinterruption 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016
Force Majeure 21.21 31.20 4.06 1.90 3.59 20.62 62.41 2.31 5.89 20.62
External effects 43.65 11.43 10.94 31.99 24.00 6.41 13.21 30.81 14.16 6.41
ENS, Responsibility of operator 7.53 7.36 6.68 5.30 4.17 1.03 1.68 0.95 32.34 1.03
MWh Not determined 0.00 0.00 0.028 0.055 0.373 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 72.39 49.99 21.70 39.25 32.13 28.06 77.29 34.08 52.39 28.06
Force Majeure 0.97 1.44 0.19 0.09 0.17 0.81 2.48 0.07 0.20 0.81
External effects 2.00 0.53 0.51 1.50 1.16 0.25 0.47 1.15 0.48 0.25
AIT, Responsibility of operator 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.25 0.20 0.04 0.06 0.04 1.10 0.04
min Not determined 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.003 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000
Total 3.32 2.30 1.02 1.84 1.55 1.10 3.01 1.26 1.78 1.10
Table 2. Key reliability indicators of the electricity transmission system in 2011-2019
Thermal PP
Hydro PP
Kruonis HPSPP
Wind PP
Other RES
Commercial system balance
Fig. 2. The Lithuanian power system balance
4,1%
72%
5,6%2,6%
4,5%
11,2%
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PL SE4 FI EE LT
The Company transmits high-quality electricity in accordance with the requirements of international qu-ality standards (LST EN 50160) and the description of permissible frequency and voltage quality parameters of the high-voltage (330 kV and higher) transmission network prepared by Litgrid separately. These docu-ments define the limit parameters that must not be exceeded and maintained by all users connected to the network, by defining the frequency and voltage limits, mains voltage drops and interruptions, harmonics and asymmetry. It should be noted that very short (up to a second) voltage interruptions in 110 kV and higher networks occur due to electrical network accidents (short circuits), which are usually caused by natural phenomena (lightning, storms, hurricanes, migrato-ry birds, etc.). Electricity transmission networks are designed to eliminate such failures within 150 ms by the main protections and within 250 ms if the backup protections are operational. In reality, short circuits are removed even faster (in approximately 100 ms) when the basic protections are active. In addition to the operation time of the additional disconnection logic, the operation of the switching equipment itself takes approximately 70-80 ms, therefore it is technically impossible or unreasonably costly to eliminate voltage interruptions in the high-voltage network. In order to ensure the operation of consumers, which are very sensitive to the quality of electricity, special reserva-tion measures must be implemented in the facilities of consumer’s or in low-voltage networks.
Given the trends of globalization and the external environment, “Digitalization and Technological Conver-gence” is expected to affect almost all aspects of TSO development, in particular the automation of transmis-sion network management, faster and wider deploy-ment of smart metering systems and cyber security. According to the Rules of Operation of Power Plants and Electrical Networks, new and reconstructed transformer substations must be equipped with remote informa-tion collection and transmission equipment, remote control of electrical network equipment. Since 2011, the Company (System Control Centre) performed record of the number of devices remotely managed from the dispatch control system. A description of the proce-dure for determining the amount of automated control connections of LITGRID, SC was created and approved in 2018. In accordance with the provisions of the procedu-re description, the actual number of automated control connections in the system is determined in each year, in June and December. According to the data of December 2019, 860 out of 1,229 managed connected devices in PS were automated (i. e. approximately 70 percent of remotely controlled connected devices).
Currently, the Lithuanian power system is directly connected with five neighboring systems (Sweden, Poland, Byelorussia, Latvia and Russia):
• NordBaltdirectcurrentinterconnectionwiththeSwedish power system, with a 700 MW capacity from / to the Lithuanian system;
• LitPolLinkinterconnectionwiththePolishpowersystem – a 400 kV double-circuit transmission line operating through a back-to-back converter in Alytus district. The capacity of the converter is 500 MW, and the line capacity is 0-500 MW to the
Lithuanian system and 500 MW from the Lithu-anian system;
• four330kVandthree110kVlinesconnectingwithLatvian power system, with a 1,500 MW capacity to and 1 200 MW capacity from the Lithuanian system;
• four330kVandseven110kVlinesconnectingwithByelorussian power system, with a 1,300 MW capa-city to and 1,350 MW capacity from the Lithuanian system;
• three330kVandthree110kVlinesconnectingwithRussian (Kaliningrad region‘s) power system, with a 600 MW to the Lithuanian system and 680 MW from the Lithuanian system.
In 2019, the highest load of the intersystem connection was achieved with Kaliningrad PS and Swedish PS. For approximately 44 percent of operating time of “Nord-Balt”, the connection operated at maximum capacity. For comparison, in 2018, the connection operated at maximum capacity for 34 percent of time. The load on the “LitPol Link” connection remained similar to 2018. Excluding the load on the direct current connections with Sweden and Poland, the most congested intersys-tem section of the Lithuanian PS in 2019 was between the Lithuanian and Russian (Kaliningrad) power plants. The average load of this interconnection was 50.8 percent. Such a load was due to the fact that due to ope-ration of the thermal PP in the Kaliningrad region (the installed capacity is 900 MW), the balance of the area was positive most of the time. As the Kaliningrad region is connected only to the Lithuanian PS, the excess energy flows to Lithuania through this interconnection. The balance of the Kaliningrad region is negative only at the time when the power plant is being repaired. The maximum section load is achieved during the summer minimum loads, when the Kaliningrad thermal PP is operating at unreduced power or when the cross-border are being repaired. The average load of the Lithuania-Latvia cross-border was approximately 19.1 percent. The highest loads of the cross-border were reached during the spring flood, when the Latvian PS balance was posi-tive. The average load of the Lithuania-Belarus cross-border in 2019 amounted to 24.6 percent. Although the typical distribution of flows in the BRELL electricity ring when Lithuania imports from Russia PS is such that 60 percent of electricity flows through the Lithuania-Bela-rus cross-border, and 40 percent through the Lithuania-Latvia cross-border, the different load on the Lithuanian interconnection was determined by the redistributed production capacity in the entire BRELL ring.
The voltages of the Lithuanian PS network are control-led by employing the possibilities of controlling the reactive power generated by power plants, as well as by regulating the operation of shunt reactors and capa-citor batteries. With the launch of the NordBalt and LitPol Link connections, additional reactive power and voltage control measures have emerged. The largest source of reactive power generation are the units at Kruonis HPSPP, the limits of reactive power genera-ted by one unit are 120÷180 MVar when operating in synchronous compensator mode. The units at Kruonis HPSPP operated in synchronous compensator mode for approximately 2,254 hours in total in 2019. The units at Kruonis HPSPP operated in synchronous compen-
sator mode for 56 hours more that in 2018. The main reason for such working time of synchronous compen-sator was operation of the new LitPol Link connection. In order for the LitPol Link converter to work properly, it is necessary to turn on special harmonic filters, which are the sources of reactive power generation. From the point of view of reactive power management, the most difficult mode is the operation of the LitPol Link connection at night or in the early morning hours, when small amounts of electricity are transmitted with the Polish PS. During the night hours, when Kruonis HPSPP is not in pump mode, the voltage levels in 330 kV nodes increase sharply and approach the maximum permis-sible values. To switch on the LitPol Link converter, it is necessary to reduce the mains voltage. Currently, the only way to do this is to operate Kruonis HPSPP in synchronous compensator mode. To solve this problem, the transmission system operator is conti-nuing the project, in the scope of which the existing controlled shunt reactor was transported from Igna-lina to the Lithuanian PP 330 kV switchyard. Start-up work is currently performed. The use of a synchronous compensator is also determined by the utilization of shunt reactors in transformer substations, repairs of electrical network elements (ETL, autotransformer, disconnection of static reactive power compensation devices), operating modes of other power plants. It was observed that the operation of Kruonis HPSP in the synchronous compensator mode correlates with the operation of Lithuanian PP generators. When the Lithuanian PP is operating, its reactive power gene-ration capabilities reduce the voltages in the system, therefore the need for Kruonis HPSPP to operate in the synchronous compensator mode is reduced.
Reliability of electricity supply is closely linked to effective functioning of the internal electricity mar-ket and to the integration of the electricity markets of neighboring countries. Lack of transparency and liquidity in the internal electricity market makes it difficult to manage risk and prevents new entrants from entering the market. The TSO ensures the overall
balance of production and consumption in the country and administers the balancing energy market.
In 2019, the average price of electricity in the Lithuanian trading zone of Nord Pool power exchange fell by 8 percent and amounted to 46.1 Eur/MWh. The situation in neighboring countries had a significant impact on Li-thuanian electricity prices. The price of electricity in the entire Baltic Sea region in 2019 fell by an average of 11 percent compared to 2018, except in Poland, where the price increased by 3 percent. This fall in prices has been driven by favorable meteorological conditions, where water resources have returned to normal levels after years of extreme drought, as well as declining consump-tion and further growth in wind power generation. The highest average monthly electricity price in the Lithu-anian trade zone was fixed in January – it reached 56.5 Eur/MWh, and the lowest in December – 39.0 Eur/MWh. The highest average monthly electricity price formed at the beginning of the year, when consumption increased significantly as the temperature dropped, and prices remained stable during the year, except in the middle of the year, when repairs of transmission lines prevailed. At the end of the year, a downward trend in prices was observed, which was significantly influenced by cheaper oil and gas resources.
The total import flow to Lithuania in 2019 grew by 7 per-cent, and the total export flow grew by 43 percent. After the price of emissions allowances reached a record price of 29.1 Eur/t in July 2019 and maintained the price at approximately 23 Eur/t, imports from third countries increased significantly by 39 percent compared to 2018. Meanwhile, imports from neighboring EU countries fell by 19 percent. The most significant decrease of im-ports was from Latvia (by 56 percent) and Poland (by 45 percent), while imports from Sweden increased by 23 percent. The total import volume was 13.4 TWh. The flow of exports from Lithuania increased by 43 percent, with the largest growth of 183 percent was to Latvia, 40 percent to Poland and 15 percent to Sweden. The total export volume was 4.0 TWh.
Fig. 3. Average electricity prices, 2016-2019, EUR/MWh
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The ambitious goals of the National Energy Indepen-dence Strategy for the integration of renewable ener-gy sources and the simultaneous project of synchro-nization of the Baltic PS with the continental European networks encourage the search for new innovative so-lutions for reliable operation of the Lithuanian electri-city system. The preparation of research and studies, planning and implementation of innovation implemen-tation activities encourages the Company to increase the efficiency of its activities by applying new methods, tools and good practices. The Company carries out stu-dies, research, analyses, various evaluations and pilot projects related to activities of the transmission sys-tem operator, either on its own or in cooperation with scientific institutions and other consulting companies. The studies and research which have been carried out and/or are being carried out by the Company and their brief descriptions are provided below.
Installation of battery energy storage system in Lithuanian PS
As already announced in last year’s plan, the Company carried out procurement procedures of the pilot pro-ject “Installation of Battery Energy Storage System in Lithuanian PS” in 2019. The project implementation agreement with private limited liability company “STiE-MO” and join stock company “Energetikos tinklų insti-tutas (Power network institute), operating on the basis of joint activities was signed on 27 November 2019. According to the agreement, by 31 December 2021, a 1 MW battery energy storage system with a capacity of 1 MWh must be designed and installed at the Vilnius transformer substation for testing the provision of 11 different system services:
1. Frequency containment reserve (FCR);2. Frequency restoration reserve (FRR);3. Replacement reserve (RR);4. Operation of special automation to stabilize the
system frequency change (EPC - emergency po-wer control);
5. Operation of special automation to stabilize the system frequency change (FFR - fast frequency regulation);
6. Synthetic inertia in response to the rate of change of frequency (RoCoF);
7. Voltage management of electrical networks;8. Congestion management of electrical networks;9. Optimization of losses of electrical networks by
changing the active power mode;
10. Improvement of quality parameters of electricity;11. As a source of reserve power isolated from the
network.
The project will also develop technical requirements for battery energy storage systems providing various system services. The battery energy storage system will be installed in a standard marine container and connected to the 10 kV switchyard of the Vilnius trans-former substation. A closed type power transformer will be installed in another modular container or buil-ding for its connection. It is planned to prepare tech-nical and detailed design this year, and the installation of the equipment itself is planned for the first half of next year. During the project, the possibilities of using battery storage systems in real operating conditions of the Lithuanian power system will be tested, areas of installation and use of high-capacity battery storage systems in Lithuania will be identified, technical requi-rements for batteries that would provide various types of services will be determined. The results and know-ledge obtained during the project will greatly contribu-te to the development of Litgrid’s competencies in the field of battery utilization and will allow properly prepa-ring for the project of synchronization with the networ-ks of continental Europe.
Installation of new synchronous compensators
Ensuring inertia is a necessary condition for the synchronization of the Baltic PS with the networks of continental Europe, provided for in the agreement on synchronous connection conditions of 27 May 2019 and in the catalogue of measures. Pursuant to the provisions of this agreement regarding assurance of the required amount of inertia (17,100 MWs), the Baltic operators have agreed to share the amount of maintai-ned inertia in equal parts in each country. This means that approximately 6,000 MWs of inertia will have to be maintained in Lithuania. Based on the data of the electricity balance caused by the electricity market in 2018 and the operating synchronous generators, the required amount of inertia in the Baltic PS was ensured only in 1,955 hours or approximately 22 percent of the time. It should be noted that operation of the IPS/UPS in the power system did not cause serious problems for the stability of the Baltic PS, as the Baltic and Lithu-anian PS are well connected with neighbouring coun-tries and stability of the system was ensured by synch-ronous power connections in emergency modes. With the disconnection of these synchronous connections and the synchronization of the Baltic PS with the conti-nental European networks via Poland, the importance
2. RESEARCH AND STUDIES
of maintaining inertia within the Baltic States increa-ses significantly, as the probability of isolated opera-tion of Baltic PS increases significantly.
In order to comply with the provisions of the catalogue of synchronous connection conditions for the lowest costs and the impact on the electricity transmission tariff, the transmission system operator performed an analysis of measures to ensure synchronous inertia required for reliable system operation after synchroni-zation of the Baltic PS with CEN in Lithuania. The study examined alternatives for the adaptation (moderni-zation) of old units from thermal power plants to the operation of synchronous compensators mode, instal-lation of new and advanced synchronous compensa-tors and operation of existing hydro or hydro pumped storage units in synchronous compensator mode. As-sessment of the costs of installation and operation of alternatives per year resulted in a conclusion that the alternative requiring the most investment is the ins-tallation of new synchronous compensators. However, this alternative has the lowest annual operating cost. After additional survey of participants of the electricity market on the possible price of inertia service and cal-culation of socio-economic benefits, it was determined that the optimal solution is to install three new synch-ronous compensators, assuming that inertia will be ensured by Kruonis HPSPP units during the unavailabi-lity (repair) of these new synchronous compensators. This issue was presented to the State Energy Regula-tory Council in August 2019.
Electrical calculations were performed to determine the installation locations of the new synchronous com-pensators. Based on these calculations, it was decided to connect new synchronous compensators to Telšiai, Neris and Alytus 330 kV switchyards. Detailed terms of reference for the project are currently being prepared with the help of the Italian consultancy CESI. It is plan-ned to implement this project in stages.
Study of scenarios of development of Lithuanian electricity system in 2020-2050
In 2019, procurement of a study of scenarios of deve-lopment of Lithuanian PS for 2020-2050 was initia-ted, and on 10 April 2020 a contract was signed with DNV GL for the preparation of the study. The results of the study are expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. The scope of this study will include analysis of how the electricity sector should develop in order to achieve the goals set by NEIS. The study will identify risks and obs-tacles to the efficient operation of the electricity sys-
tem in different scenarios of electricity development until 2050. With the rapid development of RES energy, the future will present challenges not only for integra-tion, but also for PS management (ensuring the neces-sary reserves, network congestion, energy transmis-sion, etc.). The study will suggest possible solutions and measures to eliminate the identified risks and obstacles, which will take into account global trends in reducing the energy sector’s dependence on fossil fuels, market integration, digitalisation, urbanization, the need for rapid energy efficiency, the production of energy from renewable sources and the development of distributed energy generation technologies.
Assessment of generation adequacy in the Baltic States and Finland in 2019-2034
Analysis of generation adequacy in the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) and Finland performed in 2019 covered a 15-year perspective and consisted of 4 main parts: generation capacity forecast, system demand forecast, interconnection capacity forecast and active power reserve (frequency maintenance, frequency recovery and replacement) forecast. The perspective of generation capacity was developed taking into account the information obtained during the annual survey of major electricity producers con-ducted by the Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian TSOs and the information available in Finland on the planned development/decommissioning of generating sources and RES targets established in the National Strate-gies. The forecast of cross-border capacities was ba-sed on the interconnection capacities announced on the NordPool day-ahead electricity exchange and ta-king into account the planned electricity transmission network development projects included in the National Network Development Plans and TYNDP2018 prepared by ENTSO-E. Interconnections between the Baltic Sta-tes and third countries (Russia, Belarus, Kaliningrad) were not assessed.
The results of the assessment of the adequacy of generation capacity in the Baltic States and Finland of 2019 showed that by 2030 the Baltic States with Finland/without Finland will ensure the adequacy of capacity through interconnections alone, i. e. will not be able to ensure the adequacy of the system through local generation. Without development of a local reliably accessible generation, shortage of approximately 470 MW of capacity (with Finland) and a shortage of approximately 360 MW of capacity (without Finland) will be identified in 2034 for ensu-ring capacity adequacy.
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
TWh
14 15
3. FORECAST OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND MAXIMUM POWER DEMAND OF THE SYSTEM
The most important factor determining electricity consumption is changes in the country’s economic level, which are best defined by gross domestic pro-duct (GDP). Lithuania has one of the lowest electricity consumptions per capita in the EU, therefore GDP growth has significant impact on consumption, and the introduction of energy efficiency measures pro-motes electrification. The forecast of electricity consumption and maximum power demand of the system also assesses additional factors influencing future electricity demand:
a. electricity efficiency;b. the number of electric cars and their electricity
consumption;
c. the number of heat pumps and their electricity consumption;
d. railway electrification;e. network losses;f. distributed generation.
GDP growth. The medium-term GDP growth pro-jection was adopted according to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania prepared on 20 March 2020 (Table 3). As Lithuania is still catching up with developed countries economi-cally, GDP growth is expected to be higher than the EU average during this period. Economic growth is likely to slow down approaching the EU average.
Year 2019 (fact) 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP growth, % 3.9 -1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Table 4. Projection of DGP growth in the long term
Table 3. Projection of Lithuania‘s GDP growth in the medium term
YearGDP growth in OECD countries GDP growth in Lithuania
2025 2030 2020-2023 2024 2025-2029 2030
GDP growth, % 1.94 1.84 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8
The long-term GDP growth forecast is based on long-term forecast projections by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) until 2060. It is assumed that economic growth is likely to
slow down when approaching the EU average. There-fore, GDP growth from 2024 is projected to be slightly slower than for the period of 2020-2023 (Table 4).
The long-term projections also took into account the objectives provided by the NEIS, the results to be achieved, the indicators set out in the implementa-tion plan, as well as the National Energy and Climate Action Plan 2021-2030.
Electricity efficiency. The NEIS, approved in 2018,
provides for the promotion of low-energy and ener-gy-efficient industries and the introduction of new environmentally friendly technologies and equipment, which would allow saving 1 TWh of electricity before 2030. The amount of electricity saved due to the increase in energy efficiency is shown in Figure 4.
Fig. 4. Electricity savings due to increased energy efficiency
It is planned that the implemented efficiency measu-res can save approximately 0.93 TWh in 2029 and another 0.29 TWh due to the development of heat pumps and electric vehicles. Therefore, in the future, more than 1 TWh of electricity can be saved due to im-proving technologies and more efficient electric cars and heat pumps.
The number of electrically powered cars (electric vehicles, EV) and their electricity consumption. The number of electric cars in Lithuania at the end of 2019 was approximately 1,3972, and an even higher growth rate is expected in the future.
It is expected that electric cars could account for approximately 9 percent of all registered cars in 2030. It is assumed that the amount of electricity consumed by an electric car per year is 2,100 to 2,700 kWh. This figure is provided in the technical feasibility study for demand response services. In assessing the NEIS action plan, it is assumed that the number of electric car registrations will only increase and in 2030 the increase will reach 27.8 thousand pcs, and the total number of electric cars will reach 134 thou-sand. Respectively, the total number of electric cars in 2029 will be 106 thousand pcs, which would consume approximately 179 mill. kWh/year.
Number of heat pumps and their electricity consump-tion. According to the statistical data of 2018, approxi-mately 9,354 heat pumps were installed in Lithuania in 2017 before the end of the year. The assumed amount of electricity consumed by the heat pump is approximately 7,000 kWh per year. It is assumed that
the number of newly purchased heat pumps will incre-ase from 1.5 (2017) to 4 pcs. (2030) per 1,000 house-holds (taking into account the recommendations of the technical feasibility study for demand response services). In this case, heat pumps in Lithuania would additionally consume approximately 222 mill. kWh/year in 2029.
The objective set out in the National Programme on the Development of Transport and Communications for 2014-2022 of the Ministry of Transport and Communications was also taken into account when forecasting electricity consumption and the maximum capacity demand of the system (7.1 The first objective is to install new, upgrade and improve existing railway infrastructure of international and local significance (including the construction of new Rail Baltic railways and secondary railways and bypasses), implement new projects of control-command and signalling, and energy subsystems (including electrification of railway lines)). Currently, the Company cooperates with Lietuvos ge-ležinkeliai (Lithuanian Railways, LTG) to determine the best measures of ensuring energy supply (connection points). Electrification of railway lines will increase consumption and the maximum capacity required by the system.
Electricity consumption forecast. Based on the above assumptions and the assessment of additional factors, forecasts of Lithuania’s total (including grid process losses, but excluding energy consumed for loading/pumping Kruonis HPSPP) and final (excluding grid process losses and energy consumed for loading Kruonis HPSPP) electricity consumption have been made (Figure 5 and Table 5).
Consumption 2019 (fact) 2020 2025 2029
Total consumption, TWh 12.154 11.9 13.8 14.7
Final consumption, TWh 11.145 11.0 12.6 13.4
Table 5. Lithuania‘s total and final electricity consumption
Total efficiency (in general), TWh Total efficiency (due electric cars), TWh Total efficiency (due heat pumps), TWh
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0,600
0,500
0,400
0,300
0,200
0,100
Twh
16,0
15,0
14,0
13,0
12,0
11,0
10,0
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
TWh
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
16 17
Fig. 5. Forecast of Lithuania‘s total and final electricity consumption, TWh
It is expected that the total electricity consumption in Lithuania in 2029 will increase to 14.7 TWh (average annual growth of approximately 1.9 percent) and final electricity consumption to 13.4 TWh.
Maximum capacity demand forecast. Based on the above assumptions and taking into account the electrification trends and the consumption forecast, maximum capacity demand forecast was made (Figu-re 6 and Table 6).
Fig. 6. Forecast of the maximum demand for capacity in the system, MW
Table 6. System maximum capacity demand
2019 (fact) 2020 2025 2029
Maximum capacity demand, MW 2032 1902 2190 2466
It is expected that the maximum capacity demand in Lithuanian PS system (considering electrification of transport and heat economy, and measures to incre-ase efficiency) will increase to 2,466 MW (average of 2.0 percent per year) in 2029.
Based on the forecast of electricity consumption and maximum capacity demand in the system, it can be argued that the capacity demand will continue to increase as the country’s economy develops. Energy efficiency will contribute to the rational use of electri-city. In the future, electricity consumption and maxi-mum capacity demand in the system will be further increased by electrification in industry, household sectors and especially in the transport sector, where rapid development of electric vehicles and electrifi-cation of railway lines is expected.
In view of NEIS approved in 2018 and the goals and results of RES energy to be achieved, established therein (at least 5 TWh of electricity would be produ-ced from RES by 2025, 7 TWh by 2030, 18 TWh by 2050), a long-term energy system development and feasibility study was launched (scenario building for the evolution of Lithuanian electric power system for 2020-2050, in accordance with the objectives set by NEIS and a feasibility study). The scope of this study will include the necessary (possible) implementation measures and directions, increasing the efficiency of
electricity consumption, the development of electri-city from renewable energy sources and the develo-pment of distributed generation technologies. The results of this study will be assessed in preparation of the plan for 2021 and in forecasting the consumption and maximum capacity demand in the system.
The pace of development of electric vehicles has a si-gnificant impact on demand and power forecasts. The proliferation of electric vehicles is currently at a very early stage, but their development is expected to be very rapid in the future, with exponential growth and the turning point which will depend on many factors. The Company conducted a sensitivity analysis assuming that by 2030, the number of electric cars will grow:
• upto240thousandinthefastgrowthscenario(180 percent of medium growth);
• upto134thousandinthemediumgrowthscena-rio (the scenario used by Litgrid for forecasting of demand);
• upto108thousandintheslowgrowthscenario(80 percent of medium growth).
The total electricity consumption of electric vehicles according to the different growth rates of the electric vehicle and the different driving distance is shown in Figure 7.
Fig. 7. The total electricity consumption of electric vehicles according to the different growth rates and different driving distance
The total charging capacity of electric vehicles is highly dependent on consumer habits and existing infrastructure. Slow loading, dominated by house-holds, would require longer loading times and is there-fore likely to prevail at night. Meanwhile, the need for high-power, high-speed charging station power would increase according to drivers’ habits. Litgrid’s demand forecast analysis assumed that the average charge that would increase the electricity demand, including
peak electricity consumption, would be approximately 11.22 kW . This indicator was based on the experience of other countries, which study the habits of electric car drivers. The sensitivity analysis examined the potential overall electricity demand for electric vehicles depen-ding on the selected scenarios and cases, when char-ging occurs simultaneous. Calculations show that the daily electricity demand may increase from 79 MW to 702 MW in 2029, and from 100 MW to 887 MW in 2030.
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
MW
According total consumptionElectric vehile
Heat pumpsElectrification
Efficiency measures
Fast growth (8000 km per year)Fast growth (12000 km per year)Fast growth (15000 km per year)
Slow growth (8000 km per year)Slow growth (12000 km per year)Slow growth (15000 km per year)
Medium growth (basic scenario) (8000 km per year)Medium growth (basic scenario) (12000 km per year)Medium growth (basic scenario) (15000 km per year)
Total consumption (with grid process losses), TWhTotal consumption forecast (with grid process losses), TWhFinal consumption (without grid process losses), TWh
Final consumption forecast (without grid process losses), TWhChanges of total consumption (with grid process losses), %
4 75 percent – 7 kW; 15 percent – 10 kW; 6 percent – 22 kW, 5 percent – 63 kW; Electric Vehicle Charging Behaviour Study, 29 March 2019.
-
1822 1844 1867 1890 1911 1930 1948 1967 1985 2003 2020
47
1322
3451
7299
132170
215
89103
118135
152
171
190
211
232
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50
50
50
50
50
50
12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
12
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18 19
4. TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENT IN 2029Planning of the development of the transmission network and determining the development directions of the trans-mission network takes into account the following:
• provisionsoftheLawonNecessaryMeasuresofPro-tection against the Threats Posed by Unsafe Nuclear Power Plants in Third Countries of the Republic of Lithu-ania of 29 April 2017;
• politicalmemorandumsignedbytheBalticStates,Poland and the European Commission on the synch-ronization of the Baltic electricity networks with CEN via Poland of 28 June 2018. This agreement foresees synchronization of the Baltic PS with CEN using the existing 400 kV alternating current line Alytus-Elk (Lit-Pol Link) and construction of a new submarine direct current link from Lithuania to Poland;
• theagreementadoptedattheBEMIPhigh-levelsummitof 14 September 2018 on the synchronization of the Baltic PS with CEN via the existing double-circuit line Lithuania-Poland (LitPol Link), with the additional cons-truction of a submarine HVDC link and the installation of other optimization measures, including synchronous capacitors;
• provisionsoftheLawontheConnectionoftheElectrici-ty System of the Republic of Lithuania to the Continen-tal European Electricity Network for Synchronous Ope-ration adopted of Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania of 13 June 2019;
• provisionscontainedinthePlanofActionsandMeasu-res of the Electricity System Synchronization Project approved by the Government of the Republic of Lithu-ania on 4 September 2019.
The main goal of the electricity sector is to connect the power systems of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) with the CEN for synchronous operation and full integration into the Nordic electricity market. To achieve this goal:
• reconstructionoftheexistingsingle-circuit330kVETL Lithuanian PP-Vilnius into a double-circuit is being carried out;
• theprojectofoptimizationoftheNorth-easternLithu-
will also be implemented to ensure network reliability, in-crease system manageability, technological management of the network, physical and information security and information systems development.
Taking into account the provisions of Article 4 of the Law on Necessary Measures of Protection against the Threats Posed by Unsafe Nuclear Power Plants in Third Countries of the Republic of Lithuania (electricity from third countries with unsafe nuclear power plants cannot enter the Lithu-anian electricity market, except for the energy necessary to ensure the reliability of the Lithuanian PS and following the connection of the Lithuanian PS to CEN for synchronous operation, it must not be possible for energy from third countries to enter the Lithuanian PS directly or it can enter the Lithuanian PS only to the extent that may be necessary for technical reasons after desynchronization from the CIS PS (IPS/UPS), including the Kaliningrad region), as well as the results of studies of dynamic stability and frequency stability, and the Political Memorandum signed by the Baltic States, the PL and the EC on 28/06/2018 (on the synchronization of the Baltic electricity networks with CEN via Poland) and to resolutions of the Baltic TSO leaders meeting of 04/02/2019, two additional HVDC back to back (BtB) converters (for transit to the Kaliningrad
region) may be installed for the security of the Kaliningrad PS and the provision of the necessary system services for the Kaliningrad region (region), in addition to the currently available network infrastructure, if that is technically pro-ven. To ensure the security of the Baltic PS and synchroni-zation with CEN, the existing interconnection lines with RU, KAL and BY are not required (necessary) and dismantling of these lines is planned in 2024-2025. Accordingly, additional transmission network infrastructure (additional HVDC BtB with third countries) is not assessed in the plan of 2020. The desynchronization of the Lithuanian PS from the IPS/UPS system will require the dismantling of approxi-mately 176 km of the existing 330 kV and 110 kV overhead lines. This will lead to changes in the transmission system used for connection of the interconnection lines (on the Lithuanian side): Kalveliai, Didžiasalis, Pabradė, Šalčininkai, Leipalingis and Kybartai.
In view of the NEIS, approved in 2018, and the objectives and results presented therein, it is planned that after 2025 the development of wind PP parks with a capacity of 700 MW to 1400 MW may be planned in a part of the maritime territory. The integration of offshore wind power plants will require both internal transmission network development and offshore infrastructure (Fig. 9).
Fig. 8. 400-330 kV transmission network in 2029, when Lithuanian PS works synchronously with CEN
Fig. 9. 400-330 kV transmission network in 2029, when Lithuanian PS works synch-ronously with CEN and offshore wind parks are installed in the Baltic Sea
The connection of offshore wind PP (700 MW) parks under development in Phase I (planned before 2030) to the 330 kV network does not require additional development of 330 kV transmission network on land. It will only be necessary at sea. As the ownership boundary is planned on the rear coupling at Darbėnai switchyard, all offshore (including part of the land ca-ble) infrastructure (submarine cable and platform) will be owned and developed at the expense of the produ-cers as required by the current legal documents. The Company will not own or operate this infrastructure.
The connection of offshore wind PP (+700 MW) parks under development in Phase II (after 2030) to the 330 kV network will require additional development of 330 kV transmission network both at sea and on land. The follo-wing alternatives are under consideration:
Alternative I – strengthening of the interconnection with Latvia (i. e. reconstruction of the 330 kV ETL Darbėnai-Grobinė, making additional changes in the territory of Latvia). Simultaneously, offshore (including part of the land cable) infrastructure (second submarine cable and
platform) will be necessary. If this alternative is chosen, the consent of the Latvian PSO will also be required;
Alternative II – development of transmission network on land is necessary. The following options are analysed:
Option 1, requiring installation of new 330 kV ETL Darbė-nai–Telšiai–Mūša and Mūša-Panevėžys; Option 2, requiring installation of new 330 kV ETL Darbė-nai–Varduva-Mūša and Mūša-Panevėžys.
As in Alternative I, offshore (including part of the land cable) infrastructure (second submarine cable and plat-form) will be necessary.
Investments in offshore wind PP production by 3 countries and projects both onshore and offshore, will be carried out at the initiative and at the expense of producers, as provided for in the current legal docu-ments. The infrastructure necessary for the production of offshore wind PP, will not be owned and will not be operated by the Company.
anian electricity transmission network and its prepa-ration for synchronous operation with the continental European network is being developed (including recons-truction of 330/110 kV Ignalina NPP and Utena substa-tions and transportation, installation and connection of the controlled shunt reactor to the 330 kV switchyard of the Lithuanian power plant);
• LitPolLinkextensionworksarebeingcarriedout;
• constructionofanew330kVETLVilnius-Nerisiscarriedout. Procedures and works for the preparation of spatial planning documents are currently performed;
• constructionofHarmonyLinkconnection(newdirectcurrent submarine connection will connect Lithuanian PS with Polish PS) is carried out. Approximately 15-20 km of land cable and a converter (700 MW) will be instal-led. Spatial planning works are currently performed;
• constructionof330kVETLBitėnai-KruonisHPSPPisinprogress. Spatial planning works are currently perfor-med;
• constructionof330kVETLDarbėnai-Bitėnaiisinpro-gress. Spatial planning works are currently performed;
• a330kVswitchyard“Darbėnai”willbebuilt.Anewsu-bmarine cable (Harmony Link) will be connected to this switchyard. Spatial planning works are currently perfor-med;
• a330kVswitchyard“Mūša”willbebuilt.Spatialplanningworks are currently performed.
400-330 kV transmission network is shown in Figure 8 and geographical in annex 1. In addition to these projects, other projects related to synchronization will be carried out: performance of studies identified in the catalogue of measures, installation of a battery energy storage system in the Lithuanian PS (1 MW pilot project), modernization of control systems (FSAS, AGC, etc.), installation of voltage control equipment in Lithu-anian PS (three synchronous compensators), installation of battery energy storage system for system frequency regulation. Internal transmission network development projects (reconstruction of 330 kV Neris TS, 330 kV Jonava TS, reconstruction of 110 kV TS and ETL and other projects)
20 21
5. DEVELOPMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE ADEQUACY OF GENERATION CAPACITY
5.1. Development of generation capacity
According to the information on perspective plans of the power plants obtained during the end of the year survey of producers in 2019, the Company’s projects for the con-nection of generating sources, the technical projects being coordinated, guidelines for the development of renewable resources provided in the National Energy Independence Strategy and the National Energy and Climate Action Plan of the Republic of Lithuania, and in the light of the decision to conduct auction of the long-term capacity mechanism (CRM) as well as observations and suggestions from stakeholders (the Ministry of Energy, National energy re-gulatory council and EPSO-G) presented on 29/04/2020 during the public presentation of the performed 10-year
system adequacy assessment, two scenarios for the development of generation capacity are developed:
• ScenarioA–Developmentofgenerationcapacityaccording to Litgrid assumptions.
• ScenarioB–Developmentofgenerationcapacityaccording to the results of the producer survey.
The development of power plants using renewable energy sources in both scenarios is assessed accor-ding to the estimated development volumes presen-ted in the National Energy and Climate Action Plan of the Republic of Lithuania (Table 7), which have already taken into account the capacity calculated for RES promotion auctions.
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Solar PP, 15 3 78 126 135 165 135 135 0 0
Wind PP, 0 0 120 292 280 280 0 350 0 0
Biofuel PP, 73 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waste PP, 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table 7. Increase in generating capacity using RES, MW/year
A. Development of generation capacity according to Litgrid assumptions: the prospect of fossil fuel power plants is assessed according to the information available to Litgrid (ongoing projects, planned decom-missioning, temporary shutdown) and assuming that from 2025 (during synchronous operation with CEN) old power plants (Vilnius PP No.3, Kaunas thermal PP, Lithuanian PP unit 7 and unit 8) will not meet the requirements for flexibility, reliable operation, com-petitiveness established for generators, and will be decommissioned. In this scenario, 2020-2029 chan-ges in generating capacity are estimated:
• In2021,a101MWpowerplant(21,7MWfueledbywaste and 79,2 MW fueled by biomass) in Vilnius will be put into operation;
• In2021,a26MWpowerplantfueledbywasteinKaunas region Biruliškių vill. (owned by Fortum Heat) will be put into operation;
• In2022,an8MWunitofPetrašiūnaiPPwillbedecommissioned (Litgrid assumption);
• In2025,units7and8(2x300MW)oftheLithu-anian PP will be decommissioned (Litgrid assump-tion);
• In2025,a360MW(2x180MW)unitsofVilniusPPNo.3 will be decommissioned (Litgrid assumption);
• In2025,a170MWunitsofKaunasthermalPPwillbe decommissioned;
• In2026,a6MWunitofLifosawillbedecommis-sioned;
• InstalledcapacityofpowerplantsusingRESin2029:177 MW – biomass and biogas PP, 895 MW – solar
PP, 1506 MW – onshore wind PP, 700 MW – offshore wind PP and 128 MW hydroelectric power plants.
Scenario B. Development of generation capacity according to the results of the producer survey: the perspective of fossil fuel power plants is assessed on the assumption that Lithuanian PP units 7 and 8, and Vilnius PP No.3 will be modernized and will meet the requirements for generators in 2025 (Litgrid assumption), and that Achema and Lifosa will imple-ment the projects under consideration in the producer survey, which will replace the old, uncompetitive and inflexible generation. The new Kruonis HPSPP 5th unit, which is being considered by Ignitis gamyba, SC and present in both NEIS objectives and the EU PCI4 list, is also being assessed. In this scenario, 2020-2029 changes in generating capacity are estimated:
• In2021,a101MWpowerplant(21,7MWfueledbywaste and 79,2 MW fueled by biomass) in Vilnius will be put into operation;
• In2021,a26MWpowerplantfueledbywasteinKaunas region Biruliškių vill. (owned by Fortum Heat) will be put into operation;
• In2022,an8MWunitofPetrašiūnaiPPwillbedecommissioned (Litgrid assumption);
• In2022,a18,5MWunitofAchemawillbeputintooperation;
• In2025,a170MWunitsofKaunasthermalPPwillbe decommissioned;
• In2025,anew150MWunitofKaunasthermalPPwill be put into operation;
• In2025,anew20MWunitofLifosawillbeputinto operation;
• In2026,a6MWunitofLifosawillbedecommis-sioned;
• InstalledcapacityofpowerplantsusingRESin
Table 8. Planned power plant capacities, 31 December 2029, MW
Scenario ADevelopment of generation capacity
according to Litgrid assumptions
Scenario BDevelopment of generation capacity
according to the results of the producer survey
Power plants and their generating sources
Installed capacity, MW
Available capacity, MW
Installed capacity, MW
Available capacity, MW
Thermal PP: 770 739 1841 1760
Lithuanian 445 432 1045 1002
Vilnius 0 0 282* 282**
Kaunas 0 0 150 145
Panevėžys 35 32 35 32
Mažeikiai 160 150 160 150
Other thermal PP 130 125 169 149
Kruonis HPSPP 900 900 1125 1125
Power plants using RES: 3406 3380 3406 3380
Hydro PP: 128 126 128 126
Kaunas hydro PP 101 99 101 99
Small hydro PP 27 27 27 27
Wind PP (onshore) 1506 1506 1506 1506
Wind PP (offshore) 700 700 700 700
Solar PP 895 895 895 895
Biofuel PP: 177 153 177 153
Biomass PP: 142 117 142 117
Vilnius PP No.2 29 22 29 22
Vilnius co-generation (biomass unit) 79 63 79 63
Šiauliai PP 11 9 11 9
Small biomass PP 23 23 23 23
Biogas PP 35 35 35 35
Waste PP: 70 60 70 60
Vilnius co-generation (waste unit) 22 16 22 16
Klaipėda „Fortum“ (Lypkiai TS) 21 20 21 20
Fortum co-generation PP (Kaunas, Biruliškės TS) 26 23 26 23
Small waste PP 1 1 1 1
Total: 5146 5079 6442 6325
2029: 177 MW – biomass and biogas PP, 895 MW – so-lar PP, 1506 MW – onshore wind PP, 700 MW – offshore wind PP and 128 MW hydroelectric power plants.
Capacity of power plants in 2029 are shown in Table 8.
* According to the permit to produce electricity no. L-3699 ** It is assumed that the existing units with a total installed capacity of 360 MW will be upgraded and the capacity reliably available after the upgrade of Vilnius PP No.3 will be equal to the installed capacity specified in the permit
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Reliable available capacity Import (LV, SE, PL) System demand Winter peak load
22 23
5.2. Assessment of PS adequacy in Lithuaniain2020–2030
The purpose of assessment of adequacy of the sys-tem is to identify whether the electricity system will have sufficient local generation and interconnection capacity in the future to cover the projected demand.
Deterministic and probabilistic methods can be used to assess the adequacy of the system. The determi-nistic method of system adequacy assessment is su-itable for electricity systems dominated by traditional generation (easy to plan, sufficiently reliable). Based on statistical data on the availability of generating sources, this method models the reliable available power of future generating sources and compares it with the projected system demand. The probabilistic method of system adequacy assessment is suitable for electricity systems dominated by climate-depen-
Reserve4 2020-2024 2025-2030
Frequency consistent reserve (FCR) 0 9
Automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR) 0 160
Manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR) 400 280
Replacement reserve (RR) 520 700
dent RES generation (solar, wind, hydro). The essence of probabilistic assessment is, taking into account the availability of generation sources and intercon-nections, to assess the probability that at a certain time, a certain set of generating sources will be able to meet the system demand.
The essential assumptions used in the assessment of the adequacy of generation capacity by deterministic and probabilistic methods:
• In 2025, the Baltic States will work synchronously with continental Europe and the system must ensure an enough generation, meeting the requi-rements of network codes, supplying energy at prices that are competitive in the market.
• The need for reserves is determined taking into account the requirements of the Electricity Network Codes (Table 9).
Table 9. The need for reserve, MW
2020-2024 2025-2030
Latvia—Lithuania950
950
Lithuania—Latvia 800
Sweden—Lithuania 700 700
Poland—Lithuania 500 700
Third countries 0 0
Table 10. Cross-border capacity for power exchange, MW
• Kruonis HPSPP is treated as the main source of the restoration reserve (FRR) and only 400 MW is considered as reliably available capacity to cover the maximum demand (participates in the electri-city market).
• Existing interconnection capacity with third coun-tries is not assessed, whereas third countries are seen as high-risk countries, capable of manipula-ting throughput and failing to comply with Europe-an rules.
• The LitPol Link synchronous connection is not assessed in terms of adequacy from 2025, until the Regional group continental Europe (RGCE), consisting of the TSOs of the continental Europe, will confirm that following the synchronization, the stability of the frequency of Baltic PS will be ensured in case of loss of synchronous connection or operation in island mode in continental Europe and/or Baltic networks.
Cross-border capacities used to assess the adequacy of the system are presented in Table 10.
The capacity of renewable energy generation capaci-ties (excluding biomass and biogas) is highly depen-dent on environmental conditions: wind speed, levels of sunshine, water level in rivers, so only a certain part of the installed capacity is treated as reliably availa-ble capacity. In accordance with statistical data of 3 years, analysis of the availability of RES power plants was performed, the results of which showed that during the maximum system load, i. e. during evening peak in winter season, both solar and wind power cannot be considered as reliably available capacity. Most of the wind power plants are located in the wes-tern part of Lithuania, therefore there are a number of situations when within 24 hours reliably available capacity of wind PP is less than 3 percent of the ins-talled power. Therefore, until there are clear locations of the new wind PP connections and statistics of avai-lability of offshore wind power plants, wind PP power is treated as unreliable capacity and is not assessed in deterministic method of assessment of capacity adequacy. One unit of sanuaK HPP is considered to be the reliable available capacity of hydropower plants in the long run.
Source MW
Wind PP 0
Solar PP 0
Hydro PP 25
Replacement reserve (RR) 700
Table 11. Reliable available capacity of power plants using RES, MW
By 2025, the available interconnection capacity will be fully exploited to ensure adequacy. However, from 2025 onwards, with the start of synchronous opera-tion with continental Europe, there will be changes in the assessment of the contribution of connections in ensuring adequacy:
• the700MWHarmonyLinkconnectiontoPo-land is put into operation, but the 500 MW LitPol Link synchronous connection is not assessed in ensuring adequacy (until the RGCE confirms that after synchronization the stability of the Baltic PS frequency will be ensured in case of loss of synch-ronous communication or in case of operation in island mode in the continental European and/or Baltic networks). Therefore, the capacity of the section Poland-Lithuania for imports – 700 MW;
• the350MWfrequencyrestorationreserve(FRR)is maintained in the neighbouring (Latvian and Estonian) systems, therefore part of the Latvia-Lithuania cross-border is reserved and the capa-city for imports is 600 MW;
• thetotalinterconnectioncapacity(NordBaltandHarmony Link) is reduced by 700 MW to ensure replacement reserve (RR) import capacity.
Deterministic analysis of the adequacy of the system revealed that in the case of scenario A, if only RES energy were developed, the adequacy of the system would be ensured by means of interconnections by 2025. In 2025, after decommissioning of old fossil fuel power plants, reliably available power will be reduced (Figure 10).
4 According EC regulation (EU) 2017/1485: ‘frequency containment reserves’ or ‘FCR’ means the active power reserves available to contain system frequency after the occurrence of an imbalance; frequency restoration reserves’ or ‘FRR’ means the active power reserves available to restore system frequency to the nominal frequency and, for a synchronous area consisting of more than one LFC area, to restore power balance to the scheduled value; ‘replacement reserves’ or ‘RR’ means the active power reserves available to restore or support the required level of FRR to be prepared for additional system imbalances, including generation reserves.
Fig. 10. System adequacy under extreme system operating conditions 2020-2030, Scenario A, MW
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Reliable available capacity Import (LV, SE, PL) System demand Winter peak load
24 25
Without development of a local reliably accessible ge-neration (disconnection of the 700 MW NordBalt or Har-mony Link connection), a shortage of 250 MW of capaci-ty to ensure adequacy under extreme system operating conditions was identified in 2025, which will increase to 526 MW in 2029 and reach 613 MW in 2030.
In scenario B, if the old fossil fuel power plants (Lithu-anian PP units 7 and 8 and Vilnius PP No.3) were up-graded by 2025 and new generation capacities were built to replace the uncompetitive and inflexible gene-ration, the adequacy of the system would be ensured throughout the entire analysed period (Figure 11).
Fig. 11. System adequacy under extreme system operating conditions 2020-2030, Scenario B, MW
The main steps of probabilistic system adequacy assessment:
1. Probabilistic assessment of availability of generation and interconnections – performed by the Monte Carlo method, by modelling several selected real years of extreme climatic conditions with data on the demand (depending on climatic conditions) and the duration of the variable gene-ration (solar, wind, hydro) of that year.
2. Demand forecast – it takes into account the im-pact of climatic conditions, economic growth, the extent of the regulatory burden as an opportunity
to reduce, delay or shift demand (Demand Side Response, DSR).
3. Supply forecast – only market-based resources are valued.
4. Expected Energy Not Served (EENS) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) are calculated.
The probabilistic assessment of the adequacy of the system uses the full range of generating capacity, including solar and wind generating capacity, and calculates the probability of availability of electrical power depending on climatic conditions. The capacity used in the probabilistic assessment are presented in Table 12.
Power plants, generating sources 2025 2030
Thermal PP: 680 680
Lithuanian 432 432
Vilnius 0 0
Kaunas 0 0
Panevėžys 30 30
Mažeikiai 146 146
Other thermal PP 72 72
Kruonis HPSPP 400 400
Power plants using RES: 977 1138
Hydro PP 25 25
Wind PP (onshore) 691 843
Wind PP (offshore) 0 0
Solar PP 96 101
Biomass/biogas PP 165 169
Waste PP 41 41
DSR 50 50
Total (power plants): 2148 2309
Table 12. Generating capacity used in the probabilistic assessment, MW
The probabilistic assessment of the adequacy of the system revealed that:
• adequacyofthesystemwillbenotensuredbyalocally available generation in certain operating scenarios of the Lithuanian PS as early as in 2019 (the loss of load expectation calculated in 2019 was LOLE = 34.2 h/year). It is therefore appropria-te to maintain the power reserves necessary to ensure the adequacy and security of the system;
• takingintoaccounttheexperienceoftheEUmember states and the composition of Lithuania’s generating powers, it is recommended to esta-blish the target system reliability level at LOLE = 8 hours/year;
• inordertoreachtherecommendedLOLE=8hours/year by 2025, an additional 4505 MW of reliably available local generation capacity would have to be installed, otherwise LOLE would reach
134.8 h/year in 2025 and would increase to 175.2 h/year in 2030.
• basedonGDPandelectricityconsumptiongenera-ted by consumer sectors, the aggregated value of lost load calculated in 2019 was VOLL = 5.8 EUR/kWh.
The new wording of the Law on Electricity adopted in June 2020 includes a provision that the electricity transmission system operator must perform annu-al probabilistic assessment of the adequacy of the system. In order to implement this requirement, the Company has initiated the renewal of the system adequacy assessment performed by KTU in 2019, the results of which will be presented in the Plan for the next year.
Taking into account the forecast of electricity con-sumption and maximum capacity demand, the system power balance for the ten-year period is shown in Table 13.
5 The estimated maximum load for 2025 is 2348 MW. In the demand forecast, updated in 2020, which is used for deterministic assessment, the load will reach this level in ~2027.
26 27
Indicator Available capacity
Unused capacity
Capacity reserve
Residual capacity
Maximum capacity demand
System capacity balance
2020-12-31 3579 1019 875 1685 1902 -217
2021-12-31 3685 1022 875 1788 1942 -154
2022-12-31 3879 1198 875 1806 1987 -181
2023-12-31 4297 1566 875 1857 2034 -177
2024-12-31 4712 1932 875 1905 2106 -201
2025-12-31 4115 1950 1149 1017 2190 -1173
2026-12-31 4244 2078 1149 1017 2249 -1232
2027-12-31 4379 2206 1149 1024 2315 -1291
2028-12-31 4379 2206 1149 1024 2387 -1363
2029-12-31 5079 2801 1149 1129 2466 -1337
Table 13. Forecast of the system capacity balance, 2020-2029, MW
The unused capacity of power plants here is the reduction of generating capacity due to the unavai-lability of renewable resources and the temporary cessation of electricity generation activities (“conser-vation”). The forecast of the system capacity balance was based on the actual data on RES availability of 2017-2019, which showed that reliable available power during the maximum demand of the system, can be estimated only at 40 percent of the installed power of hydropower plants, 15 percent – of wind power plants and 5 percent – of solar power plants. These applied assumptions are also in line with the results of the Company’s statistical analysis of the availability of renewable energy sources, which showed that the availability of the hydropower plant correlates with the hydrological cycle, more water in winter and less in summer. In the winter months, average availabi-lity ranges between 51 percent and 65 percent. In the summer months – between 31 percent and 44 percent. In summary, the availability of hydropower plants averages at approximately 60 percent in winter and approximately 40 percent in summer. The availability of wind power plants was assessed in two ways. The first method determines the availability of wind power plants by calculating the available power factor: the power shortage of each hour to the maxi-mum installed capacity for that hour was taken and divided by the duration of the period. This method es-timates that wind power plants are reliably available for 28 of the times in winter, and approximately 19 percent in summer. Availability of wind power plants of 28 percent would mean constantly reliable avai-lability of 136 MW of power. The second method was performed according to the Swedish transmission network operator’s wind power reduction methodo-logy. By this method, hourly generation data were taken and for each generation size, the probability of
reaching that value was calculated. Power was then calculated, which was reliably available with proba-bility of 90 percent (this analysis also looked into power available with probabilities of 80 percent and 95 percent). Probability of availability of 80 percent was determined for capacity between 28 and 43 MW (out of a total of 433 MW); 90 percent probability of availability – for capacity between 12 and 20 MW; and 95 percent probability – for capacity between 4 and 9 MW. Next, analysis of unavailability of wind power plants assesses the capacity available with probabi-lity of 90 percent. Evaluation of statistics of 2017-2019 showed that the average reliably available (with a 90 percent probability) amount of wind capacity was only 16 MW. Such capacity was unavailable for approximately 800 hours per year, and the maxi-mum uninterrupted duration when less than 16 MW of power was generated in 2019 was 24 hours. The generation of solar power plants throughout the year is characterized by a cyclical trend. In winter mont-hs, the nights are longer, the days darker, and the probability that solar power generation will be 0 MW is statistically as high as 44 percent. Therefore, solar power plants cannot be considered reliably available during the winter months. Meanwhile, in the summer months, the probability that the generation of solar power plants will be 0 MW during daytime is only 16 percent., i. e. 548 hours. However, there is a probabi-lity of approximately 80 percent that generation will be 3 MW (4 percent of the installed capacity of 74 MW) or more. Due to the cyclical nature, solar power plants are quite reliably available during the morning and evening peak consumption hours. On average, Kruonis HPSPP was available the least in 2018, coef. = 0.88. Two units of Kruonis HPSPP provide the secondary reserve service (400 MW), therefore the reliably available capacity remains 440 MW. Since it
Fig. 12. The loss of load expectation (LOLE), 2025
The loss of load expectation LOLE for Lithuania for 2025 is 7.5 hours. However, in the case of the 95th percentile of loss of load, the loss of load increases to 29.5 hours.
Summarizing the results of the system adequacy assessment, it can be stated that if reliably available generation is not developed in the case of scenario A (development of generation capacity according to Litgrid assumptions), then in order to achieve the recommended expected loss of load expectation of LOLE 8 hours/year in 2025, additional 4506 MW of reliably available local generation capacity would
have to be installed. In the extreme scenarios of the Lithuanian power system, the lack of reliably available capacity in 2025 will be 250 MW according to the updated demand forecast data, and in 2030 it will increase to 613 MW (deterministic method). There-fore, in order to ensure the adequacy of the system in 2025, flexible and competitive generation capacity meeting the requirements of the Network Codes is required, the volumes of which would be determined taking into account the capacity reserves necessary to ensure the adequacy and security of the system: capacity = 2190 MW (maximum system load) + 700 MW (50 percent FRR + RR).
6 The estimated maximum load for 2025 is 2348 MW. In the demand forecast, updated in 2020, which is used for deterministic assessment, the load will reach this level in ~ 2027.
is necessary to maintain the water level of 3 meters for the secondary reserve, i. e. for 6 hours (due to the non-linear dependence of the efficiency coefficient of HPSP on the water level), the available capacity would be 220 MW.
Each year, ENTSO-E prepares a Mid-term Adequacy
Forecast (MAF) for the European energy system for the next ten years. The probabilistic assessment of MAF 2019 was performed for the main scenario, which assessed the changes in generation capacity provi-ded by the European TSO. Results of the probabilistic adequacy assessment of the European power system in 2025 presented in Figure 12.
28 29
6. ELECTRICITY MARKET CALCULATIONS
Conventional fossil fuel generation sources of the electricity market are losing increasing market share to generation from renewable sources. The lower share of variable costs of the latter results in competitive advantage in generational distribution. A scheme for emissions trading in the European Community was introduced to combat sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The higher price of these allowances on the market leads to direct costs that increase the cost for dirtier sources of electricity generation and encoura-ges faster development of renewable technologies, increases the efficiency of electricity generation and reduces the use of fossil fuels.
Assessment of the electricity market situation took into account the differences of generation development in Lithuania. The analysis examined three scenarios,
which included the country’s generation development scenarios (generation capacity scenarios A and B) and the additional scenario C (700 MW offshore wind development). Assumptions of year 2030 scenario of ENTSO-E TYNDP2020 National Trends (NT) were used for calculations.
Market calculations show that, regardless of the scena-rio, the predominant flows will be from the Nordic coun-tries to the Baltic States and from Lithuania to Poland. The results of calculations show that increasing the local generation in Lithuania results in decrease of imports from Sweden, but imports from Latvia and exports to Po-land increase. Meanwhile, with the additional increase of installed wind generation, Lithuania’s balance decreases and exports increase significantly. Energy balance and flows using different scenarios are shown in Figure 13.
Fig. 13. Energy flows and balances in the Baltic States in different scenarios, 2029, TWh
In view of the planned generation structure of 2029, Lithuanian production in 2029 in case of Scenario A would account for up to 61 percent, Scenario B – for up to 64 percent, and, taking into account the additional development of offshore wind power, local electricity generation could reach 82 percent, of which renewables would account for 51 percent, 51 percent and 70 percent respectively.
Assuming that 2025 will see the beginning of offshore wind power plants and development of other RES will continue, it is possible, that the tar-get of 70 percent share of electricity production in Lithuania could be achieved in 2030. Accordingly, after performing long-term energy system develo-pment and contracted feasibility study (feasibility study for system development before 2020, 2030 and 2050, and conclusion of electricity market scenarios according to targets established in NEIS), the necessary (possible) implementation measures and directions for increasing the effici-ency of electricity consumption, the production of electricity from renewable energy sources and the development of distributed generation technolo-gies will be determined.
a) Baltic energy flows and balance in the case of
Scenario A
b) Baltic energy flows and balance in the case of
Scenario B
c) Baltic energy flows and balance in the case of
Scenario C
Fig. 14. Lithuanian energy balance, 2029
7. TRANSMISSIO KROWTEN N PROJECTSThe main parts of integration of electricity market infras-tructure and system management, developed by Lithuanian electricity TSO into the European electricity system are:
1. Electricity market integration;2. Connection of Lithuanian power system with CEN for synchronous operation.
These parts are strongly interrelated. Both the inte-gration of the electricity market and the connection of the PS with CEN for synchronous operation include construction of new interconnections, development of the internal transmission network, and simultaneous desynchronization from the IPS/UPS system.
7.1. Connection of the Lithuanian PS to the CEN for synchronous operation
The action plan and measures for the Electricity System Synchronization Project was approved by Resolution No. 918 of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania of 4 September 2019. The action plan and measures for the project of synchronization of the electricity system were prepared in order to ensure that in 2025 the electricity system of the Republic of Lithuania would be prepared for connection to the electrical grid of Continental Europe for operation in synchronous mode. Accordingly, the plan of electricity TSO contains actions and measures for timely and proper completion of the connection of the electricity system of the Republic of Lithuania with the electricity grid of Continental Europe for operation in synchronous mode:
If the scheme of normal connections of the Lithuanian PS was changed and the 110 kV transits Pagėgiai–Klaipėda and Pagėgiai–Jurbarkas were interrupted, the entire Šilutė–Pa-gėgiai–Tauragė region would be supplied only from Sovetsk TS (110 kV ETL Pagėgiai–Sovetsk) and the electricity supply would be completely dependent on the operating modes of the Kaliningrad Power Plant. Therefore, in order to ensure the reliability of electricity supply in the Šilutė–Pagėgiai–Tau-ragė region, construction of a new double-circuit 110 kV ETL Bitėnai–Pagėgiai (approximately 17 km) is being completed.
WPP parks are rapidly developed in the territory of southwestern Lithuania. Therefore, by changing the sche-me of normal interruptions of the Lithuanian PS (interrup-ting the above-mentioned 110 kV transits) and expanding the Bitėnai TS (this project was completed at the end of 2019), further development of WPP parks will be ensured.
Within the scope of the project Optimization and prepa-ration of the North-eastern Lithuanian electricity trans-mission network for synchronous operation with the energy system of Continental Europe (reconstruction of 330/110/10 kV Ignalina NPP TS and 330/110/10 kV Utena TS, and installation of Ignalina NPP controlled shunt reactor in Lithuanian PP) reconstruction of 330/110/35 kV Ignalina NPP TS is planned before the end of 2021, by connecting three 330 kV overhead lines and installing one autotransformer (existing Kaunas AT-1 is relocated). The existing 330 kV overhead line Ignalina NPP-Minsk TEC-5 in the territory of the Republic of Lithuania (approximately 8 km) has been dismantled as early as in 2019. The Utena 330/110/10 kV TS will also be completely reconstructed by additionally connecting the 330 kV overhead line Ignalina NPP-“Neris”. The existing 180 MVar controlled shunt reactor with 6 and 10 kV auxiliary equipment, the existing relay
protection automation and control system are transported to the 330 kV switchyard of Lithuanian PP. Connection work is currently in progress.
Within the scope of implementing the measures of the plans and managing the risks concerning stable and re-liable operation of the Lithuanian electricity power system during the transition period (until full synchronization with the network of Continental Europe), the Lithuanian PS must be prepared for the possibility to work in emergency synch-ronous mode with the Polish PS via the existing intercon-nection LitPol Link. Therefore, for full synchronization of the Baltic and Polish electricity power systems, Alytus conver-ter station will have to be equipped with 400/330 kV power transformers (or autotransformers), ensuring electrical power throughput of at least 1,800 MVA. To this end, the project LitPol Link expansion is being implemented.
Synchronization of the Baltic States with CEN will require disconnection of existing connections to the IPS/UPS sys-tem. After disconnecting the 330 kV line Vilnius–Molodečno, only one 330 kV line Lithuanian PP–Vilnius would remain connected to the system at Vilnius 330/110/10 kV TS. Such 330 kV network scheme does not meet the requirements of criterion (N–1) for the 330/110/10 kV Vilnius transformer substation and is unacceptable, therefore project recons-truction of 330 kV OL Vilnius-Lithuanian PP is being imple-mented in the first stage. Contracting works are currently in progress, completion of which is planned by the end of 2020. In order to ensure the reliability of electricity supply in the entire Vilnius after synchronization of the Baltic ES with CEN, itisnecessarytobuildanew330kVETLVilnius–“Neris” (approximately 80 km, of which 25 km would use the existing 330 kV ETL Vilnius-Molodečno).
Based on decisions of BEMIP on the synchronization sce-nario, the project for the construction of the Lithuanian-Po-lish direct current connection “Harmony Link” is in pro-gress. The connection will consist of a high voltage direct current (HVDC) cable and converter stations. The prepa-ratory phase of the project consists of the selection of the connection route, seabed surveys, preparation of technical specifications, receipt of EU support, etc. Completion of the preparatory phase is planned by the end of 2020. The entire project will be complete in 2025.
The goal of implementation of the project for construction of 330 kV electricity transmission line Kruonis HPSPP-Bitėnai is congestion management of 330 kV electricity networks after desynchronization from the electricity system of the Commonwealth of Independent States, after decommissio-ning of a part of 330 kV electricity transmission lines of the Lithuanian electricity system and during synchronous ope-ration of the Lithuanian electricity system with the electri-city grids of Continental Europe. The scope of the project includes plans of reconstruction of the existing 330 kV line Bitėnai-Jurbarkas into a double-circuit line, using the exis-ting 330 kV line at Kruonis HPSP-Sovetsk and installation of a new section of the 330 kV electricity transmission line.
Implementation of the project for construction of 330 kV electricitytransmissionlineDarbėnai–Bitėnai will allow managing voltages in the nodes of the transmission network after desynchronization from the electricity power system of the Commonwealth of Independent States, after decom-missioning of a part of 330 kV electricity transmission lines of the Lithuanian electricity system and during synchronous operation of the Lithuanian electricity power system with
Scenario A Scenario B Scenario B + 700MW
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
TWh
Final consumptionHydro PP
Solar and wind PPThermal PP
Other RES
13,4 13,4
1,1
6,5 6,5
0,9 1,2
0,3
0,3 0,3
9,0
13,4
0,5 0,5 0,5
30 31
the electricity networks of Continental Europe. Implementa-tion of the project will not only solve the problem of volta-ge management in the nodes of the Western Lithuanian transmission network but will also prevent congestion of electricity transmission lines due to the increased reactive power flows at Darbėnai and NordBalt converter stations. The scope of the project includes plans of reconstruction of the existing single-circuit 330 kV lines Bitėnai-Šyša, Šyša–Klaipėda, Klaipėda–Grobina into double-circuit lines, and installation of a new section of the 330 kV line.
Implementation of the project for construction of 330 kV switchyard “Mūša” will allow elimination of the T-con-nection of existing 330 kV lines, as such connection redu-ces the reliability of 330 kV transmission network, because in the event of a short circuit in any of the lines in T-con-nection, all the lines are disconnected together, as there are no switching devices that can only disconnect the line where the fault occurred. It will also ensure the reliability of transmission network, increase the controllability of the system, selectivity of relay protection and automation operation, ensure the throughput of repair modes and in-terconnections with Latvian and Swedish PS during repair modes. The switchyard is also necessary if the 330 kV line Panevėžys–Mūša would be constructed in the future, which would allow integration of the installed capacity of WPP in Lithuania and the Baltic Sea.
In order to connect the planned direct current connection with Poland “Harmony Link”, a project of construction of 330 kV switchyard “Darbėnai” is being implemented. The new switchyard will be built next to the passing 330 kV ETL Klaipėda-Grobina, the latter being connected at the new switchyard. A new 330 kV ETL Darbėnai-Bitėnai will be connected to the Darbėnai switchyard. The new switchyard will also provide space for other perspective connections: connection of offshore wind power plants, possible pers-pective 330 kV lines Darbėnai-Mūša or Darbėnai-Grobina, 330/110 power autotransformers, and installation of a 110 kV switchyard if needed. The Darbėnai switchyard will become an important energy hub, increasing the supply of electricity both to the Klaipėda district and ensuring a relia-ble connection to the Polish system via the new “Harmony Link” connection.
In addition to the projects listed above included in the plan of synchronization measures, other projects that have been identified in the catalogue measures of Baltic PS synch-ronization with CEN will be implemented due to synchro-nization: that is the Battery Energy Storage System for frequency control of the system. Battery storage systems would be designed for the reliable and stable operation of the system required to maintain FCR and FRR reserves. The issue of suitability of implementation of energy storage batteries as a network element is being considered by the Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian energy regulatory authori-ties, and approval is expected in 2021. The catalogue of me-asures also includes performance of the identified studies, installation of battery energy storage system in Lithuanian PS (1 MW pilot project), modernization of control systems (FSAS, AGC, etc.), installation of voltage control equipment in Lithuanian PS (3 synchronous compensators).
7.2.330–110kVprojectsforensuringthereliability of the transmission network and increasing the security of electricity supply (new construction)The TSO plans the long-term operation of the PS, ensuring the rational development of electricity networks, i. e. main-taining the principle of the lowest costs. Therefore, new
elements of the electricity network are not built at the initia-tive of the Company, except for cases when it is necessary for ensuring reliable operation of the system, full integration into CEN and the common electricity market, increasing the interconnection capacity. Construction of new 110 kV TS is carried out at the initiative of electricity network users when the existing TS capacity is insufficient or when electricity network users do not have the possibility to connect to the distribution network. When higher power electricity network users are connecting, the methodological instructions for the selection of the connection scheme approved by the Company shall be followed and a scheme meeting the needs of both the electricity network user and the operator shall be selected.
Considering not only the synchronous operation of the Baltic States with the system of Continental Europe, but also the growth of electricity demand in the Vilnius region, it is recommended to build a new 330 kV Vilnia TS. This 330/110/10 kV transformer substation would not only reduce the loads of autotransformers in Vilnius and “Neris” TS but would also ensure the reliability of electricity supply and increase the security of electricity supply in Vilnius. The most suitable location for the new substation could be near the existing 110/10 kV Vilnia substation. The line Vilnius–“Neris” would be connected to this 330 kV Vilnia TS. The construction term for the 330 kV Vilnia substation depends on the load growth rates in Vilnius region.
The Company does not plan construction of new 110 kV TS on its own initiative.
The construction of 330 kV lines is related both to ensuring the reliability of transmission network electricity supply and to the synchronous connection of the Baltic power system to CEN, their descriptions are provided above.
If Lithuanian PS operates in synchronous mode with CEN, 110 kV ETL Vilnius–Šventininkai is disconnected, and emer-gency disconnection of 330 kV line Lithuanian PP–Alytus occurs, maintenance of voltage levels in Rūdiškės, Trakai, Šventininkai substations becomes complicated, and all TSs from 330/110/10 kV Alytus TS to 110 kV Šventininkai TS (110 kV transit length of approximately 174 km) remain fed from the only source – 330 kV Alytus TS. Therefore, in order to ensure the required voltage levels and reliability, the construction of a new 110kVETLGriškonys–Varėna is in progress in the Southern part of the Lithuanian PS.
The need for construction of new 110 kV ETLs in Vilnius is substantiated by congestions in the 110 kV electricity network in Vilnius due to the increased load in Vilnius region (about 700 MW in 2020). It is estimated that the existing 110 kV ETL Šeškinė-Šiaurinė can be loaded up to 142 per-cent during emergency modes. With the increase of Vilnius city load, the existing 110 kV transmission network will not ensure the reliability of electricity supply in emergency and repair modes of system operation. After assessing the growing demand for electricity in Vilnius, in order to ensure more reliable feeding of users of Šeškinė, Šiaurinė, Baltupis and K. Studija, it is recommended to implement the project ensuring the reliability of Vilnius electricity transmission network. Construction of a new 110 kV electricity transmis-sion line is planned within the scope of this project.
With the increase of Kaunas city load, the existing 110 kV transmission network will not ensure the reliability of electricity supply in emergency and repair modes of system operation. In emergency modes, after discon-nection of the 110 kV line Kaunas–Šilainiai, the existing ETL Kaunas–Eiguliai is overloaded. In order to increase security of supply and ensure reliability, it is necessary to
build a second110kVETLKaunas–Eiguliai.
7.3.330–110kVprojectstoensurethereliability of the transmission network and increase the security of electricity supply (reconstruction)In order to ensure the reliability of transmission network equipment in the most efficient way, it is necessary to deve-lop new technical standards for equipment and constantly update the methodologies for updating transmission network facilities, taking into account the condition of equipment and its importance to the system. It is expected that 75 percent of all switching devices of the transmission network will be remotely managed in 2020. This will reduce the cost of operational switching and ensure the safety of people working in substations by phasing out on-call staff at substations.
Reconstruction of a substation is a complex process that requires a lot of investment and human resources (working hours), as well as restrictions on the operating modes of the system. As investments, human resources and ensu-ring reliable operating modes of the system have certain limitations and it is necessary to choose which substa-tions need to be reconstructed prior to others, taking into account the priority (parallelism) of these reconstructions, priority of reconstruction should be given to substations that are the most worn-out, the most important to the system and the ones requiring the highest operating costs. In order for the transmission network to ensure reliable power supply, the technical equipment in it must be in good technical condition. The equipment in the substations is aging as years pass, therefore it is necessary to perform periodical checks that the condition and functionality of the existing TSs are at appropriate levels, which would ensure appropriate quality and reliability of electricity supply to consumers. If the TS does not meet the establis-hed requirements, a decision must be made whether the substation needs complete reconstruction or only partial reconstruction (i. e. replacement of individual worn-out devices with new ones) would be sufficient.
It is planned that within the period of 10 years, recons-truction of an average of 10 substation per year will be started. Reconstruction of Jonava, Neris, Jurbarkas and Kruonis HPSPP substations (switchyards) is planned. It is planned that in the period of 2020–2029, reconstruction of approximately 118 110 kV substations units will be complete, in progress or started (according to investment plan for 2020-2029). In addition to these projects, partial TS reconstruction projects will be carried out, during which only part of the substation equipment (RPA, TCTD, individual devices) will be replaced with new equipment.
Reconstruction of 330 kV ETL Alytus-Lithuanian PP is currently in progress and reconstruction of 330 kV ETL Šiauliai-Kaunas is starting. Within the 10-year period, implementation of reconstruction projects of such lines as Lithuanian PP-Neris, Jelgava-Šiauliai, Jonava-Panevė-žys and Kaunas–Jurbarkas is planned. The reconstruction of the ETL is carried out taking into account the execution of the projects required for synchronization. Projects of reconstruction of 110 kV ETL will also be carried out.
7.4.Projectsattheinitiativeofelectricity network usersConstruction of new TS is usually determined by the need of electricity network users. Both producers and consumers are connected to transmission network in
accordance with the Resolution No. 1-127 of the Minis-ter of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania (04/07/2012) approving the Description of the procedure for connec-ting electrical equipment of electricity producers and consumers to the electricity networks. The deadlines for the implementation of all projects depend on the plans of the electricity network users.
The construction project of the new 110/10 kV Biruliškės TS was completed in December 2019 (initiated by Kauno kogeneracinė jėgainė, JSC). A manufacturer was connec-ted to transmission network via the existing 110 kV ETL Kaunas-Kruonis HPSP.
At the end of 2019, a 101 MW combined heat and power plant was connected to transmission network (initiated by Vilniaus kogeneracinė jėgainė, JSC). Vilnius combi-ned heat and power plant was connected to the existing Vilnius PP No.3 110 kV switchyard.
According to the information provided by Ignitis gamy-ba, SC, there are plans to install the 5th 225 MW power unit at Kruonis HPSPP. For this purpose, the 330 kV switchyard of Kruonis HPSPP will have to be expanded. The project of development of Kruonis HPSPP is among approximately 250 most important energy infrastructure projects approved by the European Commission.
It is planned to build a 110/10 kV Kuprioniškės TS for con-nection of new consumers in the southern part of Vilnius. Development of Vilnius city is concentrated on the right bank of the Neris river and in the Northern part of the city. The need for additional powers related to the develo-pment of the Northern part of the city should be met by the “Šiaurinė” TS. With further expansion of construction on the right bank of Neris (Šnipiškės district), the existing distribution network may of insufficient capacity, thus construction of a new 110/10 kV Šnipiškės TS is planned.
Construction of a new 110/10 kV Lazdėnai TS is planned for the supply of new consumers located in the eastern part of Trakai district.
ESO plans to build a new 110/35/10 kV Sitkūnai TS to feed new consumers in the Sitkūnai area.
Construction of the 110/6 kV Drūkšiai TS is planned ta-king into account the development plans of the user (SE Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant).
According to the information provided by Lietuvos gele-žinkelių infrastruktūra, SC, approximately 13 new subs-tations could be built for electrification of Lithuanian rail-way lines. However, the planned infrastructure projects for electrification of Lithuanian railway lines are currently in phases of preparatory works, and final solutions are not yet available. When decisions on electrification of railway lines become available, this information will be assessed in next year’s plan.
The Company does not carry out the replacement of overhead lines with cable lines on its own initiative, except in cases when it is not possible to cross the terri-tory with overhead line.
All electricity network user projects are initiated only at the request of consumers/producers and are implemented in accordance with the provisions of the description of the procedure for connection of electrical equipment of electri-city producers and consumers to electricity networks, approved by Order No. 1-127 of the Minister of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania of 4 July 2012.
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8. THE NEED FOR INVESTMENT FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSMISSIONNETWORKSIN2020–2029
The total planned investments in transmission networks consist of investments allocated for the im-plementation of strategic state projects, investments in ensuring the reliability of the transmission network and electricity supply, investments in information technology and other projects, and investment pro-jects on the initiative of electricity network users.Total investment in the development and moderni-sation (reconstruction) of the transmission network (including projects on the initiative of network users) for 2020-2029 may amount to approximately 1.3 billion euros (Table 14).
Taking into account the provisions of Article 4 of the Law on Necessary Measures of Protection against the Threats Posed by Unsafe Nuclear Power Plants in Third Countries of the Republic of Lithuania (electri-city from third countries with unsafe nuclear power plants cannot enter the Lithuanian electricity market, except for the energy necessary to ensure the relia-bility of the Lithuanian PS and following the con-nection of the Lithuanian PS to CEN for synchronous operation, it must not be possible for energy from third countries to enter the Lithuanian PS directly or it can enter the Lithuanian PS only to the extent that may be necessary for technical reasons after
desynchronization from the CIS (IPS/UPS), inclu-ding the Kaliningrad region), as well as the results of studies of dynamic stability and frequency stability, and the Political Memorandum signed by the Baltic States, the PL and the EC on 28/06/2018 (on the synchronization of the Baltic electricity networks with CEN via Poland) and to resolutions of the Baltic TSO leaders meeting of 04/02/2019, installation of two additional HVDC back to back (BtB) converters (for transit to the Kaliningrad region) is considered for the security of the Kaliningrad PS and the provisi-on of the necessary system services for the Kali-ningrad region (region), in addition to the currently available network infrastructure, if that is technically proven. Accordingly, additional transmission network infrastructure (additional HVDC BtB with third coun-tries) is not assessed in the plan of 2020.
Investments in offshore wind PPs production by 3 countries and projects both onshore and offshore, will be carried out at the initiative and at the expense of producers, as provided for in the current legal docu-ments. The infrastructure necessary for the pro-duction of offshore wind PPs will not be owned and will not be operated by the Company.
No Project groups 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total 2020-2029
EU structural support/
CEF(received)
EU structural support/
CEF(planned)
Total transmission network investments
72.58 121.31 135.47 176.38 289.39 222.17 71.53 59.30 79.76 63.14 1291.03 150.73 358.10
Total Litgrid investments (excl. grid users)
69.75 118.63 129.13 170.29 281.32 215.02 67.19 57.80 77.69 61.70 1248.51
I.
Power system connection to continen-tal Europe network for synchronous operation and related projects
43.59 54.42 79.72 119.09 213.44 163.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 674.17 144.55 346.51
II. New construction 0.10 0.10 2.10 0.20 0.30 2.10 2.37 1.43 3.30 7.92 19.92
III.
Network reconstruction and modernisation
18.40 54.12 37.10 32.52 50.66 29.65 46.18 33.83 49.27 37.00 388.72 6.18 11.59
IV. Major repair 5.64 7.76 9.00 16.84 15.17 17.60 17.11 21.68 24.26 15.92 150.98
V. ICT projects 1.85 1.99 0.91 1.26 1.38 1.28 1.09 0.26 0.26 0.26 10.54
VI. Research and innovation 0.17 0.23 0.32 0.37 0.37 0.48 0.45 0.60 0.60 0.60 4.19
VII. Network users initiative 2.83 2.68 6.34 6.09 8.07 7.15 4.34 1.50 2.07 1.44 42.52
3rd countries investments into offshore wind PP (700 MW)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 150 150 400
Table 14. Total investment in the development and modernisation of the transmission network 2020–2029
This infrastructure will not belong
to Litgrid
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9. ACTIVITIES OF ENTSO-E
The Company is a member of ENTSO-E (the Europe-an Network of Transmission System Operators for electricity) and takes an active part in its activities. Every two years, ENTSO-E draws up a ten-year de-velopment plan (TYNDP) with the participation of all transmission system operators – members of ENT-SO-E. Regional investment plans focus on priorities, objectives and challenges pertaining to each region and present regional projects. Electricity market and network calculations are made as part of preparation of the regional plans seeking to identify grid/networks points at which capacity needs to be increased in or-der to ensure the maximum efficiency of the operation of the common European marked in electricity, for the greatest benefit to producers and users, new projects (lines, converters) that contribute to the attainment of these objectives are also identified. Formulation of TYNDP involves the cost and benefit analysis (CBA) resulting in a detailed assessment of all existing and new projects according to a number of criteria.
The TYNDP consists of several reports: the Executi-ve Report, the individual regional investment plans, reports on communication with all stakeholders, and technical reports.
6 regional investment plans will be prepared by the end of 2020. Regional investment plans emphasize the priorities, goals and challenges of each region, and present projects in that region. Preparation of regional plans includes calculations of the electricity market and networks, as well as identification of grid points at which capacity needs to be increased in order to ensure the maximum efficiency of the operation of the common European marked in electricity, for the great-est benefit to producers and users, and identification of new projects (lines, converters) that contribute to the attainment of these objectives.
Calculations in the TYNDP2020 study are performed according to approved scenarios. Scenario calcu-lations are performed using market modelling tools, using data on various technical and economic network indicators and indicator forecasts collected by the PEMMDB working group as input data. Three scena-rios are used:
1. NT scenario – National Trends. It is based on the national plans of the ENTSO-E members and the assessment of the EU’s climate change mitigation targets.
2. GA scenario – Global Ambition. The scenario is in line with the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agree-ment, by performing of centralized generation.
3. DE scenario – Distributed Energy. Scenario of full transition to decentralized energy, in line with the Paris Agreement. GA and DE enable meeting their carbon reduction targets in 2050.
In order to compare the impact of different scenarios on electricity networks, a so-called reference network is used, which is also required for cost-benefit analy-sis. The reference network only includes projects that are already started, or for which have their prepara-tory procedures started. MAF 2019 database for the period of 2025 is used to develop the TYNDP2020 reference network.
A zonal modelling method is used to identify the network needs. Entire Europe is divided into approxi-mately 100 zones, which are connected to each other by modelling simplified electricity networks. This method is a significant improvement over TYNDP2018 – a single iteration for simulation of both market and network (TYNDP2018 had separate market calcu-lations and network analysis).
The first edition of the TYNDP2020 study is schedu-led for comments in 2020, after that a version of the study will be submitted to the European Regulator (ACER) in 2020, and the final report of the study is scheduled for completion in July 2021.
The following Lithuanian projects are submitted for TYNDP2020:
1. Stage 2 of LitPol Link. This project includes inves-tments aimed at strengthening internal networks in Poland, there are no investments on the Lithu-anian side.
2. Stage 2 of NordBalt. This project includes inves-tments aimed at strengthening internal networks in Sweden, there are no investments on the Lithu-anian side.
3. Baltic synchronization with Continental Europe. The project includes strengthening of internal networks in all Baltic countries and a new intercon-nection line to Poland. This project has the status of a PCI project and has been included in the list of TYNDP projects for many years.
4. Integration of offshore wind power plants (project No. 1042). This is a project of wind power plants planned to be constructed in the Baltic Sea off the coast of Lithuania, presented for the TYNDP2020 plan for the first time. The option to build a 700 MW offshore wind power plant in 2030 is presen-ted for analysis.
10. RESEARCH, EXPERIMENTAL DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION ACTIVITIES
The purpose of guidelines of Research, Experimental Development and Innovation (R&D&I) activities is to use research, innovations and new solutions for ensuring continuity and efficiency of activities of the companies of the EPSO-G, UAB group, competitive-ness or creation of conditions for ensuring competi-
In developing R&D&I activities, the Company will focus on efficient asset management of the electrici-ty network, advanced power system monitoring and management and digitization solutions.
Fig. 16. R&D&I classification
Fig. 15. R&D&I clusters and priorities of the EPSO-G group of companies
tion, significant contribution to the implementation of the National Energy Independence Strategy, creation of added value for the society.
The priorities and clusters of R&D&I activities is shown in Figure 15.
New R&D&I business ideas, both centralized for the whole group of companies and originating within the Company, will be evaluated and classified according to the presented principle.
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The company carries out studies, research, analysis, various evaluation and pilot projects related to the activities of the transmission system operator, by using the new innovation system itself or in coopera-tion with scientific institutions and other consulting companies. Major innovative projects initiated by employing the newly developed processes:
Pilotproject“Useofdronestodeterminethelocationof transmission network failures”
At the end of 2019, the project “Use of drones to determine the location of transmission network failures” was initiated. In the event of single-phase or multi-phase short circuit connection to earth of 110/330/400 kV overhead line of the transmission network (due to a falling tree, lightning discharge into the line, line damage due to birds flying between the line wires), depending on the size and duration of the fault, the overhead line is shut down for a short period
of time (in case of successful automatic restart) or the line is completely switched off by means of relay protection devices (RPD) until the location and nature of the is identified. The overhead line engineer follows the indications of the RPD devices to arrive at the possible location of the fault. However, the calculated distance often has an error of up to 5 km. Use of a drone would allow identification of location of the fault at least 2 times faster than now. If such a technical solution proves successful, the use of drones could be extended to other companies EPSO-G group.
Pilotproject“SmartfaultlocationonNORDBALTcable”
At the end of 2019, the project “Smart fault location on NORDBALT cable” was initiated. In order to ensure the reliability of the NORDBALT link and increase the availability of the cable, automatic cable fault location equipment, which is not currently installed in the
In developing R&D&I activities in 2019, the Compa-ny focuses on efficient asset management of the electricity network, advanced power system moni-toring and management and digitization solutions. Innovation System of Litgrid was created for effici-ent management of implementation of innovations, focusing the Company’s innovation activities on the implementation of the goals and objectives provi-ded for in the Climate Change and National Energy Independence Strategy. The innovation system is based on the premise that reliable operation of the electricity system, without innovation is not possible, transitioning from fossil fuel power plants to renewa-
Fig. 17. Principle structure of the innovation system
ble energy sources, creating a competitive national economy in the Baltic, Scandinavian and Central and Eastern European regions. Therefore, the main goal of the Innovation System is a smooth transition from fossil fuel power plants to renewable energy sour-ces through intelligent development, operation and management of the electricity system at the lowest resource cost.
The main principles for creating an environment con-ducive to creativity and innovation were established in 2019: management of internal and external informa-tion, cooperation and effective communication.
connection, will be tested. Real-time fault location will be performed with the help of the “HiRES Locator”. The manufacturer indicates that the location of the fault of the cable is located within up to 200 km with installation of the equipment on only one end of a high voltage direct current connection. The aim of this pilot project will be to test the operation of such equipment on the NordBalt link cable, which is twice as long (400 km).
Pilotproject“Loadmanagementbyaggregatingconsumers”
At the beginning of 2020, the project “Load mana-gement by aggregating consumers” was initiated. According to the current model employed in Lithuania, only be the party responsible for the balance can be a balancing service provider. An innovative opportunity for consumers to become active participants in the balancing market through the services of an indepen-
dent aggregator would increase competitiveness and provide more flexibility for system/network operators. This pilot project should improve the action plan, iden-tify threats, as well as development of the information system and changes in legal regulations. So far, only one such concentrator has emerged, but activation proposals of up to 5 MW are planned already. New functionality of IS STATERA is required for the aggre-gator to be to operate. STATERA is currently used to monitor and exchange data when activating balancing market offers. Integration of the new aggregator mo-del would require change in the operation of balancing activations. Currently offers are activated by making phone calls. The new model will automatically activate the proposal without using human resources. This will save time and reduce the likelihood of errors.
The Company also carries out other projects with the characteristics of innovative projects, which are inclu-ded in the Company’s innovation portfolio.
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Annex 1. Geographical Scheme of the Lithuanian Power System Transmission Grids in 2029
