Development of Year 2050 Anthropogenic Emissions Inventory in Support of Future Regional Air Quality Modeling

J. Woo, S. He, P. AmarNESCAUM

E. Tagaris, K. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. RussellGeorgia Institute of Technology

CMAS Conference, Oct, 2006, Chapel Hill, NC

Background and Objectives

* A part of “Global Climate Change Impacts on Regional Air Quaility over North America” modeling work

- In support of air quality modeling (GISS/MM5 and CMAQ-DDM) - Did not create new future energy/emissions scenarios * Develop 2050 EI - Target year : Year 2050, Annual - Format : SMOKE-ready - Sector : Anthropogenic only - Geographical domain : US/CAN/MEX

IPCC SRES Scenarios (Global CO2 & SO2)

2050 2050

Source : IPCC

Basic Strategy Future-year EI development

Obtain the best available future EI data possible

Fill-up gaps from near/certain future to distant/uncertain future

Example : Use EPA projection until 2020 and

use IPCC scenario from 2020-2050

Comparison of existing “future-EI” development approaches

NameBase Year

Future Years

Geographical Domain

Scenario

Source sectors

Chemical species

ModelAvailabilit

y

EPA CAIR 20012010/2015/2020

Continental US

EPA BASE/CAIR

EGUs, non-EGUs

NOx, VOCs, CO, NH3, SO2, PM

IPM/EGAS/NMIM

Yes

EPA CSI 19962010/2020

Continental US

EPA BASE/CSI

EGUs, Non-EGUs

NOx, VOCs, CO, NH3, SO2, PM

IPM/EGAS

Yes

RPO SIP 20022009/2018

Continental US

OTB/OTWEGUs & non-

EGUsNOx, VOCs, CO, NH3, SO2, PM

IPM/EGAS

Partly

SAMI 19902040

(/10yrs)38 States +

DC

OTB/OTW/

BWC/BB

EGUs & non-EGUs

NOx, VOCs, CO, NH3, SO2, PM

SAMI No

RIVM* 1995~2100(/yr)

World (17 regions)

IPCC SRES(A1, B1, A2,

B2)

Energy sector/fuel

combination

CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx, SO2, NMVOC

IMAGE Yes

NESCAUM/EPA

1999~2029+(/3yrs)

Units(EGUs), States(NE),

Country

BAU, RGGI

Energy sector/fuel

combination

NOx, VOCs, CO, NH3, SO2, PM

MARKAL

2007

Pros Cons Both• RIVM : Netherlands’s National Institute for Public Health and the Environment • IMAGE : Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment

Projecting emissions - US -

Step #1 : Obtain national projection data available for the near future

- Use EPA CAIR Modeling EI (Point/Area/Nonroad, from Y2001 to Y2020) - Use RPO SIP Modeling EI (Mobile, from Y2002 to Y2018)

Step #2 : Obtain growth data for the distant future and develop cross-reference

- Use IMAGE model (IPCC SRES, A1B) - From Y2020 (Y2018 for mobile activity) to Y2050 - X-Ref : Sectors/Fuels combination to SCCs

Step #3 : Apply growth factors using cross-reference

Projecting emissions - CANADA/MEXICO -

Step #1 : Obtain national projection data available for the near future or update base year inventory

- Use Y2020 Environmental Canada Future EI (Area/Mobile) - Use Y2002 Point source inventory (NYS DEC) scaled with Y2000

by-state point source summary from Environment Canada - Update base year Mexico inventory using Mexico NEI for 6 US-

Mexico Border states

Step #2 : Obtain simple growth data for the distant future and apply them

- Use IMAGE model (IPCC SRES, A1B) - From Y2020 to Y2050 (CAN, Area/Mobile) - From Y2000 to Y2050 (CAN, Point) - From Y1999 to Y2050 (MEX, All)

Developing cross-references (CAIR and IMAGE)

no SCC CO NOx VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 sec fuel cntry SCC_Description407 10300101 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Anthracite Coal_Pulverized Coal 408 10300102 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Anthracite Coal_Traveling Grate (Overfeed) Stoker 409 10300103 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Anthracite Coal_Hand-fired 410 10300203 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Cyclone Furnace (Bituminous Coal) 411 10300205 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Pulverized Coal: Wet Bottom (Bituminous Coal) 412 10300206 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom (Bituminous Coal) 413 10300207 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Overfeed Stoker (Bituminous Coal) 414 10300208 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Underfeed Stoker (Bituminous Coal) 415 10300209 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Spreader Stoker (Bituminous Coal) 416 10300214 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Hand-fired (Bituminous Coal) 417 10300216 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom (Tangential) (Bituminous Coal) 418 10300217 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion: Bubbling Bed (Bituminous Coal) 419 10300218 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion: Circulating Bed (Bitum. Coal) 420 10300222 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom (Subbituminous Coal) 421 10300223 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Cyclone Furnace (Subbituminous Coal) 422 10300224 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Spreader Stoker (Subbituminous Coal) 423 10300225 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Traveling Grate (Overfeed) Stoker (Subbituminous Coal) 424 10300226 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Pulverized Coal: Dry Bottom Tangential (Subbituminous Coal) 425 10300309 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Lignite_Spreader Stoker 426 10500202 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA External Combustion Boilers_Space Heaters_Commercial/Institutional_Coal ** 427 2103001000 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA Stationary Source Fuel Combustion_Commercial/Institutional_Anthracite Coal_Total: All Boiler Types 428 2103002000 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 2.08811 0.522028 0.868927 0.868927 COM COAL USA Stationary Source Fuel Combustion_Commercial/Institutional_Bituminous/Subbituminous Coal_Total: All Boiler Types 539 10300601 0.55543 0.96362 0.55543 0.96362 1.03203 1.123573 1.123573 COM GAS USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Natural Gas_> 100 Million Btu/hr 540 10300602 0.55543 0.96362 0.55543 0.96362 1.03203 1.123573 1.123573 COM GAS USA External Combustion Boilers_Commercial/Institutional_Natural Gas_10-100 Million Btu/hr

5159 SCCs

Growth (IMAGE – A1B)

SO2(as S)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Tg

S/Y

r

CL HO LO NG MB IP TOT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Tg

S/Y

r

IND TRA RES SER OTH ETRAN POWGEN INDPRO TOT

NOx(as N)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9T

gN

/Yr

CL HO LO NG MB IP TOT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Tg

N/Y

r

IND TRA RES SER OTH ETRAN POWGEN INDPRO TOT

Stacked-Bar : % fraction

of emission

s by fuels and

by sectors

Dots : Annual

emissions in Tg/Yr

Countries

Years

2020

0

4

8

12

16

20

2001 2020 2050

Mill

ion

s TP

Y

Pnt Area Nonroad Onroad

Spatial Distribution of US Emissions (SO2)

2001

2050

Bkgrnd Map : State-level

annual emission

s

Pie Chart : State-level emissions fraction by

source types

Spatial Distribution of US Emissions (NOx)

2001

2050

2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2020 2050

Mill

ion

s TP

Y

Pnt Area Nonroad Onroad

Future Emissions (CANADA)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5

Mill

ion

s T

PY

CAN00_Pt CAN00_Ar CAN00_Nr CAN00_Mb

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5

Mill

ions

TP

Y

CAN50_Pt CAN50_Ar CAN50_Nr CAN50_Mb

2000

2050

Future Emissions (Mexico)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5

Mill

ion

s T

PY

Mex1999_Pt Mex1999_Ar

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5

Mill

ion

s T

PY

MEX2050_Pt MEX2050_Ar

1999

2050

Summary

US emissions in the future (Y2050) are estimated to decrease by 50%+ for SO2 and NOx

Canadian EI shows decrease of gaseous pollutants

For Mexico, emissions of NOx, SO2, NH3, and VOC are estimated to increase

On-going work & Acknowledgement

Air quality modeling using CMAQ-DDM for three cases

- Base year emissions with base year meteorology - Base year emissions with future year (2050) meteorology - future year (2050) emissions with future year (2050) meteorology

Dr. Efthimios Tagaris will present AQM effort tomorrow

This study has been financially supported by the US EPA under Grant No. R830960

Near Future EI (EPA CAIR)

Base Case - Current controls except CAIR Control Case (Clean Air Interstate Rule)* - The same as base case except for EGUs Available for Y2001, Y2010, Y2015, Y2020 Based on 1999 NEI Pollutants : NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, NH3, PM10, PM2.5 Available in SMOKE/IDA format

* CAIR region : AL, AR, CT, DE, DC, FL,GA, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, SC, TN, TX,VA, WV, WI

RIVM IMAGE WorldScan(economy model), and PHOENIX

(population model) feed the basic information on economic and demographic developments for 17 world regions into three linked subsystems (EIS, TES, and AOS*)

* EIS(Energy-Industry System), TES(Terrestrial Environment System), AOS (Atmospheric Ocean System)

IMAGE : A dynamic integrated assessment modeling framework for global change

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Tg

NM

VO

C/Y

r

IND TRA RES SER OTHETRAN POWGEN LOSS INDPRO TOT

Growth (IMAGE – A1B)

CO(as C)

NMVOC

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tg

C/Y

r

CL HO LO NG MB IP TOT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tg

C/Y

r

IND TRA RES SER OTH ETRAN POWGEN INDPRO TOT

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050 2001 2020 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Tg

NM

VO

C/Y

r

CL HO LO NG MB IP TOT

Growth (IMAGE – A1B)

Agricultural Production

BC+EC -Streets et al. (2004)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

Tg

/yr

Animal FdCrop FlCrop Pasture Total

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Canada Canada Canada USA USA USA Mexico Mexico Mexico

1996 2030 2050 1996 2030 2050 1996 2030 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Gg

/yr

IND TRA RES POW CropBrn Tot

Surrogates for NH3 for OTH sector

Surrogates for PM species

Spatial Distribution of US Emissions (NMVOC)

2001 2020

2050

0

4

8

12

16

20

2001 2020 2050

Mill

ion

s TP

Y

Pnt Area Nonroad Onroad

Spatial Distribution of US Emissions (PM2.5)

2001 2020

2050

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2001 2020 2050

Mill

ion

s TP

Y

Pnt Area Nonroad Onroad

Mobile source (VMT vs. Emission)

0.00E+00

1.00E+02

2.00E+02

3.00E+02

4.00E+02

5.00E+02

6.00E+02

Mill

ions

VMT

VMT_02 VMT_18 VMT_50

VMT increases (about 1%/year) for the future years (Y2050 =

Y2018 yet)

In spite of VMT increase, emission (CO) decrease dramatically because of

controls for the future years. Much less effect of controls

after 2018.

0

2

4

6

8

Tho

usand

s

TPD

CO_2002 CO_2018 CO_2050

Three SMOKE/M6 runs(2002/2018/2050) for

MANE-VU states