Development of a Public Development of a Public TransportationTransportationStrategic Plan for Metro CebuStrategic Plan for Metro Cebu

Engr. Ildefonso T. Patdu, Jr.Engr. Ildefonso T. Patdu, Jr.Director, Project Development ServiceDirector, Project Development ServiceDepartment of Transportation and Communications (DOTC)Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC)

Cebu City BRT Studies Coordination ConferenceCebu City BRT Studies Coordination ConferenceMay 9, 2009May 9, 2009

Park Lane Hotel, Archbishop Reyes Ave. and Escario St., Cebu CityPark Lane Hotel, Archbishop Reyes Ave. and Escario St., Cebu City

Background: Metro CebuBackground: Metro Cebu Transport StrategyTransport Strategy Role of DOTCRole of DOTC Objectives of the ProjectObjectives of the Project Project ActivitiesProject Activities Schedule of ActivitiesSchedule of Activities

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OutlineOutline

Metro Cebu Metro Cebu is composed of four (4) cities of is composed of four (4) cities of Cebu, Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu and Talisay, and the Cebu, Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu and Talisay, and the six (6) adjacent municipalities of Naga, six (6) adjacent municipalities of Naga, Minglanilla, Liloan, Consolacion, Cordova and Minglanilla, Liloan, Consolacion, Cordova and CompostelaCompostela Defined in the 1994 Cebu Integrated Area Defined in the 1994 Cebu Integrated Area

Development Master Plan Study (CIADMPS)Development Master Plan Study (CIADMPS) It is the It is the country’s second international gateway country’s second international gateway

and has the and has the second largest urban area second largest urban area in the in the PhilippinesPhilippines

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Background: Metro CebuBackground: Metro Cebu

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Over the years, the metropolitan area has been Over the years, the metropolitan area has been experiencing a rapid growth in population and an experiencing a rapid growth in population and an increasing level of urbanizationincreasing level of urbanization From a total of 1,693,881 persons reported in 2000, From a total of 1,693,881 persons reported in 2000,

the population of Metro Cebu has increased to over 2 the population of Metro Cebu has increased to over 2 million in 2007, registering a million in 2007, registering a 2.8% population growth 2.8% population growth raterate for the period for the period

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High Population GrowthHigh Population Growth

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City/ Municipality

PopulationPopulation

Growth Rate2000 % Share 2007 % Share

Cebu City 718,821 42.44% 798,809 38.97% 1.52%

Mandaue City 259,728 15.33% 318,575 15.54% 2.96%

Lapu-Lapu City 217,019 12.81% 292,530 14.27% 4.36%

Talisay City 148,110 8.74% 179,359 8.75% 2.77%

Naga 80,189 4.73% 95,163 4.64% 2.48%

Minglanilla 77,268 4.56% 101,585 4.96% 3.99%

Liloan 64,970 3.84% 92,181 4.50% 5.12%

Consolacion 62,298 3.68% 87,544 4.27% 4.98%

Cordova 34,032 2.01% 45,066 2.20% 4.09%

Compostela 31,446 1.86% 39,167 1.91% 3.19%

Total 1,693,881 100.00% 2,049,979 100.00%Ave 2.76%

Population of Metro Cebu for the Years 2000 and 2007Population of Metro Cebu for the Years 2000 and 2007

The share of Cebu City’s population to Metro Cebu decreased from 53% of the total population in 1970 to 42% and 39% in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Among the component cities and municipalities of Metro Cebu, Cebu City itself had a decelerating growth rate for the past three decades while the adjoining cities and municipalities were growing comparatively faster

Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS

The increasing level of urbanization is The increasing level of urbanization is accompanied by a corresponding accompanied by a corresponding shiftshift in the in the preferred mode of transportation preferred mode of transportation from public to from public to private transportprivate transport The share of trips using private modes at the 1979 The share of trips using private modes at the 1979

level of 9.7% has increased to 20.6% by the year level of 9.7% has increased to 20.6% by the year 1992, while the share of public transport has 1992, while the share of public transport has decreased from its previous level of 90.3% to 79.4% decreased from its previous level of 90.3% to 79.4% during the same period during the same period

Contributes to worsening traffic congestion and Contributes to worsening traffic congestion and increasing air pollution levelsincreasing air pollution levels

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Increasing Use of Private ModeIncreasing Use of Private Mode

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Motor Vehicle Registration in CebuMotor Vehicle Registration in Cebu

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

No.

of R

egis

tere

d V

ehic

les

In 1994-1999, Cebu City’s share ranged from 40 to 55% of the total vehicles registered in Cebu Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle registration in Cebu City tremendously increased by 42.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.0% while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was halved to 21.4% or an average annual growth rate of 3.6%.

Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS

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Metro Cebu Travel Demand , 1979-2020Metro Cebu Travel Demand , 1979-2020

Source: Cebu City CLUP (2000)

Mode 1979 1992 2012* 2020*

Private 110,500 9.7% 305,666 20.6% 515,416 17.1% 989,910 23.5%

Public 1,028,900 90.3% 1,180,408 79.4% 2,492,066 82.9% 3,229,717 76.5%

Total 1,139,400 100.0 1,486,074 100.0 3,007,482 100.0 4,219,627 100.0

Trip Rate

1.10 1.26 1.54 1.61

Notes: *projected using regression

Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3, the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated that the share of trips using the private modes increased from 9.7% in 1979 to 20.6% in 1992 while the share of trips using public transport decreased from 90.3% in 1979 to 79.4% in 1992.

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Annual Average TSP Level (ug TSP/N cu. m) in Selected Stations Annual Average TSP Level (ug TSP/N cu. m) in Selected Stations in Metro Cebuin Metro Cebu

Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS

143

212

148

88

127

276

261

238

113

151

88

138

72

117

193

49.0239.9

69

94 90

8381

90

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

TS

P C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(u

g/N

cm

)

DENR Region VII Office CENRO N. Bacalso Ave.Pardo Baranggay Hall Tonggo, San Fernando, Cebu CityLangtad, Naga, Cebu City Inayagan, Naga, Cebu CityOportos Residence, Cebu City Baricuatros Residence, Cebu City Canos Residence, Cebu City Valuerich FarmGuideline Value for TSP (1-year) = 90 mcg/N. cu. m.

In 1995-2000, all stations were observed to exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak concentrations occurring in 1999. In 2001-2006, there has been a slight improvement due to presence of annual average concentration values below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations still exceed the guideline value. With few available data, the annual average concentrations of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed that there was one station that exceeded the guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in 2002-2003. This indicates that air pollution is still a continuing problem for the city.

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Cost of Air Pollution

The Philippines Environment Monitor study (World Bank, The Philippines Environment Monitor study (World Bank, 2002) quantified the detrimental effect of air pollution on 2002) quantified the detrimental effect of air pollution on the health, productivity and quality of life into economic the health, productivity and quality of life into economic values and it estimated that the total cost of the values and it estimated that the total cost of the exposure to PM10 in the four cities of Metro Manila, exposure to PM10 in the four cities of Metro Manila, Baguio, Cebu and Davao adds up to over US$430 Baguio, Cebu and Davao adds up to over US$430 million. million.

Among the four cities, Cebu City ranked second to Metro Among the four cities, Cebu City ranked second to Metro Manila in derived costs, which in 2001, was equivalent to Manila in derived costs, which in 2001, was equivalent to US$16 million.US$16 million.

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Cost of Air PollutionCost of Air Pollution

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Cost Traffic Congestion

As a As a possible strategy possible strategy to alleviate congestion to alleviate congestion along the heavy traffic corridors of Metro Cebu along the heavy traffic corridors of Metro Cebu and to arrest the increasing level of air pollution in and to arrest the increasing level of air pollution in the area, the the area, the development and promotion of public development and promotion of public transportationtransportation is envisioned is envisioned It is noted that the last comprehensive transport study It is noted that the last comprehensive transport study

for the metropolitan area was the for the metropolitan area was the Metro Cebu Land Use Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS), and Transport Study (MCLUTS), which was conducted which was conducted way back in way back in 19781978 by the then Ministry of Public Works, by the then Ministry of Public Works, Transportation and Communication (MPWTC) with Transportation and Communication (MPWTC) with technical assistance from the Government of Australia. technical assistance from the Government of Australia.

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Transport StrategyTransport Strategy

The Department of Transportation and Communications The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) as the lead agency responsible for the (DOTC) as the lead agency responsible for the promotion of Environmentally Sustainable Transport promotion of Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) intends to support Metro Cebu in the (EST) intends to support Metro Cebu in the promotion promotion and development of public transportation and development of public transportation

DOTC intends to engage the services of a qualified DOTC intends to engage the services of a qualified consulting firm for the development of a consulting firm for the development of a Public Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu that will that will span a planning horizon of up to the year span a planning horizon of up to the year 20202020. The Plan . The Plan is expected to provide the blueprint for the development is expected to provide the blueprint for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu within the established planning horizonwithin the established planning horizon

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Role of DOTCRole of DOTC

The DOTC moreover intends that the Public The DOTC moreover intends that the Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu will be Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu will be developed with the use of developed with the use of sketch planning methodology sketch planning methodology and toolsand tools The key idea of sketch planning method is to facilitate The key idea of sketch planning method is to facilitate

the generation of alternatives quickly and easily. the generation of alternatives quickly and easily.

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Role of DOTCRole of DOTC

The methodology shall incorporate both The methodology shall incorporate both demand-side and supply-side aspects of public demand-side and supply-side aspects of public transportation that is able to analyze various transportation that is able to analyze various planning scenarios and perform ‘what-if’ types of planning scenarios and perform ‘what-if’ types of analysisanalysis

The analysis shall take into consideration The analysis shall take into consideration existing development plans for Metro Cebu over existing development plans for Metro Cebu over a planning horizon of 20 years with 2009 as the a planning horizon of 20 years with 2009 as the Base Year.Base Year.

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Sketch Planning MethodologySketch Planning Methodology

Main features:Main features: Adopting the logic structure of the traditional transportation modeling Adopting the logic structure of the traditional transportation modeling

process;process; Limiting the classification of trip purposes (working, schooling, Limiting the classification of trip purposes (working, schooling,

shopping and others) and trip modes (private car, transit and walking);shopping and others) and trip modes (private car, transit and walking); Setting the appropriate zoning system (grouping of residents and Setting the appropriate zoning system (grouping of residents and

activities) that are consistent with past zoning systems, especially activities) that are consistent with past zoning systems, especially MCLUTS;MCLUTS;

Updated network representation with appropriate level of aggregation;Updated network representation with appropriate level of aggregation; Utilization of past origin-destination (OD) tables as bases for OD table Utilization of past origin-destination (OD) tables as bases for OD table

updating; andupdating; and Modest model calibration but where practicable employ extensive use Modest model calibration but where practicable employ extensive use

of matrix estimation techniquesof matrix estimation techniques

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Sketch Planning MethodologySketch Planning Methodology

1)1) Identify the traffic corridors in the metropolitan area Identify the traffic corridors in the metropolitan area where the promotion and development of public where the promotion and development of public transportation would be most effective in addressing the transportation would be most effective in addressing the emerging problems of increasing traffic congestion and emerging problems of increasing traffic congestion and air pollution;air pollution;

2)2) Establish and provide the necessary directions and Establish and provide the necessary directions and appropriate strategies for the development and appropriate strategies for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu in the promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu in the short, medium and long term periods;short, medium and long term periods;

3)3) Generate a shopping list of potential programs and Generate a shopping list of potential programs and projects for the short, medium and long term planning projects for the short, medium and long term planning horizons;horizons;

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Objectives of the StudyObjectives of the Study

4)4) Identify list of high priority programs and projects that Identify list of high priority programs and projects that may be considered by the DOTC and/or other may be considered by the DOTC and/or other concerned stakeholders;concerned stakeholders;

5)5) Establish the relative viability of selected high priority Establish the relative viability of selected high priority programs and projects for implementation; andprograms and projects for implementation; and

6)6) Provide the DOTC a sketch planning methodology and Provide the DOTC a sketch planning methodology and tools for use in future updating of the Plan.tools for use in future updating of the Plan.

2020

Objectives of the StudyObjectives of the Study

1)1) Compilation and Assessment of Existing DataCompilation and Assessment of Existing Data

2)2) Development of a Public Transportation Sketch Development of a Public Transportation Sketch Planning MethodologyPlanning Methodology

3)3) Conduct of Transport and Traffic SurveysConduct of Transport and Traffic Surveys

4)4) Development of Public Transportation Sketch Development of Public Transportation Sketch Planning ToolPlanning Tool

5)5) Development of a Metropolitan-Wide Public Development of a Metropolitan-Wide Public Transportation Strategic PlanTransportation Strategic Plan

6)6) Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for Identified Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for Identified High Priority ProjectsHigh Priority Projects

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Project Activities Project Activities

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Gathering and compilation of Existing Data

Data AssessmentDevelopment of a Public Transportation Sketch Planning MethodologyConduct and Processing of Transport and Traffic Data Surveys

Development of Public Transportation Sketch Planning Tool

Preparation of Systems Documentation Report and User's Manual on Sketch Planning ToolDevelopment of a Metropolitan-Wide Public Transportation Strategic Plan

Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for High Priority Projects

Preparation of Final Reports

ACTIVITIESMonth

Schedule of Activities Schedule of Activities

Thank you!Thank you!

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