development and sex determination sensitive to temperature...
TRANSCRIPT
Development and sex determination sensitive to temperature under climate change constraints
Jonathan MONSINJON and Marc Girondot
1
→ Vulnerability of a species
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015 2
Species adaptability and Climate Change
“The vulnerability of a species to environmentalchange depends on the species’ exposure and
sensitivity to environmental change, its resilienceto perturbations and its potential to adapt to change.” (Huey et al. 2012)
Species adaptability and Climate Change
→ Which biological response at ecological time and spatial scales ?
3
IPCC (2014)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Focus on Ectotherms
4
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Sensitivity to temperature
5
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Huey et al. (2012)
Fitn
ess
Body Temperature
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Sensitivity to temperature
6
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Huey et al. (2012)
Fitn
ess
Fitn
ess
Body Temperature Body Temperature
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Specialist (A) vs. Generalist (B)
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Species adaptability and Climate Change
Huey et al. (2012)
Fitn
ess
Fitn
ess
Body Temperature Body Temperature
A B
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Thermal Reaction Norms
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Species adaptability and Climate Change
Phenotype
Temperature
?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Embryonic development: a critical life stage for egg-laying species !
9
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Survivalprobability
(Van damme et al. 1992)
Morphology(Du and Ji. 2003)
Hatlchingbehaviour
(Sibly and Atkinson. 1994)
T°C
Incubation
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Embryonic development: a critical life stage for egg-laying species !
10
Species adaptability and Climate Change
T°C
IncubationDavenport (1997)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ The case of TSD species (Temperature-dependent Sex Determination)
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Species adaptability and Climate Change
T°C
Incubation
%
Temperature
Valenzuela (2004)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Sex is determined during the TSP (Thermo-Sensitive Period)
12
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Incubation Duration is also sensitive to temperature
13
Species adaptability and Climate Change
T°C
Incubation
Incubation duration
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Incubation Duration is also sensitive to temperature
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Species adaptability and Climate Change
T°C
Incubation
Incubation duration
Temperature
Embryonic growth rate
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Thermal Reaction Norm for Embryonic Growth
15
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Temperature (T)
Embryonic growth rate (r) 𝑟 𝑇 =
𝜌 298 K𝑇
298𝑒𝑥𝑝
Δ𝐻𝐴≠
𝑅1
298−
1𝑇
1 + 𝑒𝑥𝑝Δ𝐻𝐻𝑅
1𝑇 1 2𝐻
−1𝑇
Schoolfield et al. (1981)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ But temperature is not constant under natural conditions !
16
Species adaptability and Climate Change
T°C
Incubation
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ A new method to fit Thermal Reaction Norms from field data
17
Species adaptability and Climate Change
𝑟 𝑻 =
𝝆 𝟐𝟗𝟖 𝐊𝑻
298 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝚫𝑯𝑨
≠
𝑅1
298 −1𝑻
1 + 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝚫𝑯𝑯𝑅
1𝑻 𝟏 𝟐𝑯
−1𝑻
𝑋 𝑡 = 𝑲𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝑙𝑛 𝑿(𝟎
𝑲𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝑟 𝑻 𝑡
Girondot & Kaska (2014)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
T°C
Incubation
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ A new method to fit Thermal Reaction Norms from field data
18
Species adaptability and Climate Change
𝑟 𝑻 =
𝝆 𝟐𝟗𝟖 𝐊𝑻
298 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝚫𝑯𝑨
≠
𝑅1
298 −1𝑻
1 + 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝚫𝑯𝑯𝑅
1𝑻 𝟏 𝟐𝑯
−1𝑻
𝑋 𝑡 = 𝑲𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝑙𝑛 𝑿(𝟎
𝑲𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝑟 𝑻 𝑡
Embryonic growth rate
T°C
Size of embryos
Incubation time
Girondot & Kaska (2014)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
T
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Biological issues
19
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Are Embryonic Thermal Reaction Norms similar between populations ?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Biological issues
20
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Are Embryonic Thermal Reaction Norms similar between populations ?
Which Primary Sex-ratio is produced under natural conditions ?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Biological issues
21
Species adaptability and Climate Change
Are Embryonic Thermal Reaction Norms similar between populations ?
Which Primary Sex-ratio is produced under natural conditions ?
How will populations respond to Climate Change ?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
22
Modelling Framework
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°CThermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
23
Modelling Framework
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°C
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
24
Modelling Framework
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°C
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
25
Modelling Framework
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°C
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
26
Modelling Framework
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°C
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
(Caretta caretta)
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Population distribution of Caretta caretta
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Field Data
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Wallace et al. (2010)
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ 5 populations have been monitored
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Field Data
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Wallace et al. (2010)
GeorgiaFlorida
TurkeyLibya
South Africa
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Record Nest temperature
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Field Data
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
July August September
T°C
Incubation Period
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Missing temperatures in Libya
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Field Data
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
July August September
T°C
?
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
31
Modelling Framework
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
PredictedSex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Water T°C Air T°C
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Climate datasets (ECMWF)
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Nest Temperature Modelling
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Air T°C Water T°CJonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Generalized Linear Mixed Model
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Nest Temperature Modelling
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
July August September
T°C
Water T°C
Air T°C
Nest T°C
GLMM → Nest T°C = Water T°C + Air T°C + Metabolic Heating
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Generalized Linear Mixed Model
34
Nest Temperature Modelling
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
July August September
T°C
Water T°C
Air T°C
Nest T°C
GLMM → Nest T°C = Water T°C + Air T°C + Metabolic Heating
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Predict daily average temperature
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Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Water T°C
Air T°C
Nest T°C
Predicted T°C
Nest T°C is more related to Water T°C than Air T°C
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Predict daily average temperature
36
Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Water T°C
Air T°C
Nest T°C
Predicted T°C
Nest is 2.13 °C warmer than substratum at the end of incubation
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Manage daily patterns
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Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Manage daily patterns
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Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Amplitude
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Manage daily patterns
39
Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Time max
Amplitude
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Manage daily patterns
40
Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Time maxTime min
Amplitude
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Smooth hourly time-series
41
Nest Temperature Modelling
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
July August September
T°C
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Fill missing parts
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Nest Temperature Modelling
July August September
T°C
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
43
Modelling Framework
EmbryonicGrowthModel
Thermal ReactionNorm for Growth
PredictedSex-ratio
Water T°C Air T°C
Thermal ReactionNorm for Sex-ratio
ObservedSex-ratio
Predicted T°Cwithin a nest
Recorded T°Cwithin a nest
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Contrasted Thermal environment
→ Are populations specialized to their thermal environment ?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
44
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Libya
Turkey
Florida
Frequencyof T°C
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Comparative analysis between Libya, Turkey and Florida
45
Thermal Reaction Norm for Embryonic Growth
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowth rate
Temperature
All together
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Comparative analysis between Libya, Turkey and Florida
46
Thermal Reaction Norm for Embryonic Growth
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowth rate
Temperature
AIC ∆AIC Akaike weight
All together 183.03 0 0.88
Separate 187.06 4.03 0.12
All together
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Comparative analysis between Libya, Turkey and Florida
47
Thermal Reaction Norm for Embryonic Growth
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowth rate
Temperature
All together
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Comparative analysis between Libya, Turkey and Florida
48
Thermal Reaction Norm for Embryonic Growth
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
EmbryonicGrowth rate
Temperature
Not enough time to adapt ?
All together
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Mitochondrial DNA reveals Pleistocenic colonisation of the Mediterranean (Clusa et al. 2013)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
49
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Libya
Turkey
Florida 12 000 years65 000 years
Atlantic North-west
Mediterranean
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Mitochondrial DNA reveals Pleistocenic colonisation of the Mediterranean (Clusa et al. 2013)
→ High longevity of marine turtles does not permit to adapt rapidly (Tucek et al., 2013)
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
50
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Mitochondrial DNA reveals Pleistocenic colonisation of the Mediterranean (Clusa et al. 2013)
→ High longevity of marine turtles does not permit to adapt rapidly (Tucek et al., 2013)
→ Trans-Atlantic Male-mediated gene-flow ?
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
51
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Generalist vs. Specialist trade-off
52
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Angilletta et al. (2003)
Phenotype
Temperature
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Generalist vs. Specialist trade-off
53
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Angilletta et al. (2003)
Phenotype
Temperature
If temperature is not stable and changes faster than
potential response to adapt,
Generalists should beselected…
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Caretta caretta nests within a large latitudinal range !
54
Evolution of Thermal Reaction Norms
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Wallace et al. (2010)
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Include data from Georgia and South-Africa
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
55
Further work
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Include data from Georgia and South-Africa
→ Model Nest Temperature at larger time and spatial scales
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
56
Further work
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Include data from Georgia and South-Africa
→ Model Nest Temperature at larger time and spatial scales
→ Fit the Thermal Reaction Norm for Sex-ratio
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
57
Further work
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Include data from Georgia and South-Africa
→ Model Nest Temperature at larger time and spatial scales
→ Fit the Thermal Reaction Norm for Sex-ratio
→ Collect more data
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
58
Further work
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Phenology of nesting is also dependent to temperature
59
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Viability under Climate Change Constraints
(2013)
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Climate Change effect can be mitigated or amplified …
… but this interconnection has never been studied !60
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Viability under Climate Change Constraints
Embryonicgrowth
PhenologySex-ratio
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
61
Viability under Climate Change Constraints
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
Hawkes (2009)
→ Caution: Phenology should be considered !
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
→ Evolution of Embryonic Thermal Reaction Norms
→ Model past, present and future Primary Sex-ratio
→ Integrate Phenology of Nesting
→ Population viability assessment under Climate Change constraints
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
62
Linking Ecology, Evolution and Development …
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
63
Thanks to …
Tony Tucker, Yvette Fernandez, Abdulmaula Hamza, Atef Ouerghi, Yakup Kaska, and Marc Girondot
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015
Background – Material and Methods – First Results – Discussion – Perspectives
64
And you for listening !… any questions ?
Jonathan Monsinjon – PhD student – GTMF 2015