Developing a multi-scale approach for the quantification and analysis of the trade-offs in the nexus. A nexus stress test for investments in water, energy and food sectors

Mónica A. Altamirano, (Deltares), Timo Kroon (Deltares), Nico van der Linden (ECN), Bob van de Zwaan (ECN), Arend Jan van Bodegom (Wageningen UR), Jan Verhagen (Wageningen UR)

Discussion points

A multi-scale approach Need of a WEF approach for Sustainable Development WEF methodological framework

Global scale– anticipating priority regions National scale –the water-energy nexus in Ethiopia Local scale: Humera District, Tigray Region, Ethiopia Preliminary findings and the way forward

18 december 2017

A multi-scale approach

18 december 2017

The WEF nexus and Sustainable development

Silo approach to reach water, food and energy security Lack of coordination, dialogue and collaboration =

(-) efficiency and effectiveness Prevent appropriate measures

Integrated resources management & balancing trade-offs Essential to achieve sustainable development

Good intentions that create new problems:

Investments in rose production in Kenya: vast water use and pesticide runoff toll on Lake Naivasha

Investments in Hydropower in East Africa and the Horn of Africa drought-induced reduction in electricity generation -a persistent feature

18 december 2017

The WEF nexus and Sustainable development

Silo approach to reach water, food and energy security Lack of coordination, dialogue and collaboration =

(-) efficiency and effectiveness Prevent appropriate measures

Integrated resources management & balancing trade-offs Essential to achieve sustainable development

Good intentions that create new problems: Investments in rose production in Kenya: vast quantities of

water used and pesticide runoff have taken their toll on Lake Naivasha.

18 december 2017

A nexus stress test for investments in SDG’s

Project title: Leveraging private sector and climate finance for Sustainable Development Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS),

Netherlands ECN (Energy) , Deltares (Water), W-UR (Food)

Goals twofold: Nexus operationalization & link to Climate Finance Architecture

Analytical and modelling approach: quantification of trade-offs at different scales from global problems to local solutions

Global scale: screening phase Priority regions : forecasting stress or conflict in the use of

resources Global Water Models–Energy Scenarios

18 december 2017

A nexus stress test for investments in SDG’s

Country analysis of nexus stress : Can SDG’s be achieved given current and future resource

constraints? Are energy mixes (Climate agreements) achievable? Enough

water and land to generate hydro and biomass? Modelling: Ribasim – TIAM-ECN

Local analysis of nexus stress: How do particular large projects for economic will affect

water/energy and food availability? Design of context specific climate smart solutions and Climate smart development pathways Modelling: Ribasim - LEAP

18 december 2017

WEF Methodological Framework (Analytical Approach)

18 december 2017

Approach steps (different scales)

Step 1: Problem definition A. Identification key development challenges = SDGs gaps and national policy priorities B. Stakeholders & outcomes of interest C. Interdependencies between sectors = cross-sectoral claims D. Production processes - most resource intensive Step 2: Forecasting and Management of uncertainties /Climate Uncertainty A. Future scenarios for demands and production processes

Climate Change scenarios Socio-economic scenarios

Step 3: Analysis of trade-offs and synergies and identification of leverage points A. System Dynamics and the related Causal Loop Diagrams(CLDs) B. Leverage points (where are small shift can result in significant changes) C. Quantitative analysis of the trade-offs – making use of models Step 4: formulating climate smart solutions A. From engineering and technological measures B. Regulatory and planning approaches

18 december 2017

18 december 2017

The Framework – System Diagram

The main objective of the water-food-energy nexus system approach is to ensure sustainable economic development through aachievement of selected SDGs and related indicators

Global Scale - anticipating priority regions

18 december 2017

Global Modelling Framework for the Nexus: (Soft) linkages between WEF models

Global hydrological models coupled to food models, using scenario’s for energy (transition) to anticipate effects on water & food security

Hydrological models

Socio Economic Scenarios

Climate change Scenarios

Energy Scenarios (TIAM-ECN)

Food models

At global scale the soft linking of global water availability with future energy scenarios enable Worldwide identification nexus stresses in the short, medium and long term

Detailed crop model -groundwater model (MODFLOW-WOFOST.) RibaSIM

& PCR-GLOBWB

Global Water Availability Models

Hydrological models

1. Global water balance model: surface water +

groundwater

PCRGLOB

Detailed Groundwater

Detailed Surface water

Global Ground Water model (based on MODFLOW)

1. Global water balance model: surface water +

groundwater

Detailed Groundwater

PCRGLOB 1. Global water balance model: surface water +

groundwater

Surface water

Global Surface Water model RibaSIM

PCR-GLOBWB 2.0

Global hydrology and water resources model

• 5 arcminute (10x10 km) global • daily time step • Snow, soil moisture, groundwater • Lakes, dames and reservoirs

(dam operations) • water abstraction, consumptive

water use, return flows • Water use by irrigation, livestock,

households and industry • Subgrid parameterization of soil

saturation, snow distribution and interflow runoff production

• Subgrid parameterization of soil and land cover classes

• Land cover: open water, bare soil, permafrost, small and tall vegetation: natural and agriculture (rainfed, paddy and non-paddy irrigation.

• Full coupling with groundwater flow model

• inundation modelling possible. • Water temperature module

Contactpersoon: Marc Bierkens

Global water stress: update Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas

Water temperature

National scale- the Case of Ethiopia

18 december 2017

Analysis of Ethiopia

Step 1: Problem definition A. key development challenges B. Stakeholders & outcomes of interest C. Cross-sectoral claims D. Resource intensive processes Step 2: Forecasting and Management of uncertainties /Climate Uncertainty A. Future scenarios for demands and production processes

Climate Change scenarios Socio-economic scenarios

Step 3: Analysis of trade-offs and synergies and identification of leverage points A. Causal Loop Diagrams(CLDs) B. Leverage points C. Quantitative analysis - modelling Step 4: formulating climate smart solutions A. From engineering and technological measures B. Regulatory and planning approaches

18 december 2017

18 December, 2017

1A. Ethiopia key development challenges SDG target SDG indicator Status Ethiopia Gap

2.1 By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round

2.1.1 Prevalence of undernourishment

32% (World, Development Indicators, 2015)

32%

6.1 By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all

6.1.1 Percentage of population using safely managed drinking water services

57.3 % (World, Development Indicators, 2015)

42.7%

7.1 By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services

7.1.1 Percentage of population with access to electricity.

26.6% (World, Development Indicators, 2012)

73.4%

15.1 By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands, in line with obligations under international agreements.

15.1.1* Forest area as a percentage of total land area

12.5 % (World, Development Indicators, 2015)

n/a

1A. Ethiopian (own) economic development priorities

• Average GDP growth of 11%

• Agriculture as a main driver of rapid economic growth (staple food crops, high value crops, industrial inputs and export commodities).

• Transitioning from agriculture to ‘leader in light manufacturing’

(textile and garment, leather products, footwear, agro-processing, sugar and others),

• Reducing macroeconomic imbalances: investment-saving gaps and deterioration of trade balance.

• Power generating capacity from 4180 MW to 24092 MW in 2025

• Accelerate universal access to WASH through ONE WASH national program

18 december 2017

1B. Stakeholder analysis

Table 3. Main stakeholders and their interests

Stakeholder (national level)

Role/ responsibility /mandate Strategic plan for which it is

responsible

Criteria/ Outcomes of interest

National planning commission / Ministry of

Finance & Economic Development

- Set overall long term perspective and five years medium term

growth targets

- Provide general guidance for planning and development

priorities

- Approve the plan

- Review the periodic evaluation results

Growth and Transformation Plan II - GDP growth

- Macroeconomic imbalances

- Agricultural output

- Manufacturing output

Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy

(MoWIE)

- Promote the development of water resource and electricity

- Cause the carrying out of study, design and construction works

to promote the expansion of medium and large irrigation dams

- Support the expansion of potable water supply coverage; follow

up and coordinate the implementation of projects financed by

foreign assistance and loans;

- Promote the growth and expansion of the country's supply of

electric energy

Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient

Green Economy

Climate Resilience Strategy:

Water and Energy

One WASH

Cookstove program

- Energy production capacity

- Hectares of irrigated land

- Water supply

- People with access to WASH

Ministry of Environment and Forest (MEF) - the implementation of the CRGE strategy, and overall

environmental and forest management in the country

Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green

Economy Climate Resilience

Strategy; agriculture and forestry

- Ecosystem health

- Hectares of forests

- Biomass use

Ministry of Health To promote health and wellbeing of Ethiopians through providing

and regulating a comprehensive package of promotive,

preventive, curative and rehabilitative health services of the

highest possible quality in an equitable manner.

One WASH national program - Population health

Ministry of Industry Promote and expand the development of industry by creating

conducive enabling environment for the development of

investment and technological capacity of the industry sector by

rendering efficient support and services to the development

investor.

‘Industrial park development

Document’

X

- Manufacturing output

18 december 2017

WATER

WATER production&supply processes with ENERGY demand (addressing whole chain)

FOOD production&supply processes with WATER demand (addressing wh chain)

ENERGY production&supply processes with WATER demand (addressing whole chain)

FOOD production&supply processes with ENERGY demand (addressing whole chain)

ENERGY production&supply processes with FOOD demand (addressing whole chain)

Water - Energy

Energy - Water

Food - Water

Food - Energy

Energy - Food

1C. Interdependencies: Intersectoral claims

1. Water required for energy

- Large investments in hydropower plants - Large share of population dependent on biomass/wood

18 december 2017

2. Water required for agricultural production (food & non-food) - Agriculture as main driver of economic growth - Doubling of crop output and irrigated land - Increase in livestock (meat & other animal products) - Higher value crops 3. Land required for energy - Hydropower claim on land seems relatively small - Biomass/wood takes a lot of land, intersectoral claim water and

food depends on source (newly allocated land or existing forest).

18 december 2017

1C. Interdependencies: Intersectoral claims

Water for Energy Water for Food

Energy for food

18 december 2017

1C. Interdependencies: Key Intersectoral claims

1 Problem & Impact of CC

- Growing economy and population will demand more water (agriculture, energy) in a country facing temporal and spatial (blue) water scarcity events.

- Biomass use needs to be sustainable for preventing deforestation - Prioritizing non-food agricultural output can harm vulnerable groups

18 december 2017

Bob van der Zwaan (ECN), Agnese Boccalon (Deltares), Francesco Dalla Longa (ECN)

Prospects for Hydropower in Ethiopia: An Energy-Water Nexus Analysis

18 december 2017

The Ethiopian case

Ethiopia NDC: reduce BAU emissions of 400 MtCO2 by 64% in 2030

Massive potential for hydropower: 2 GW capacity– to be multiplied 5 times (EEPCO)

Purpose: desirability and feasibility of such a large role for hydropower in Ethiopia’s electricity generation system

Ethiopia: 140,000 Mm3/yr of freshwater- 86% surface freshwater resources

Blue Nile constitutes the largest river basin in the country, where about 70% of its surface freshwater resources can be found Abbay (44%) Baro-Akobo (20%) Tekeze (6%)

Together - average annual water discharge =117,000 Mm3/yr.

18 december 2017

Our analysis

Cost- optimal energy mix to achieve the NDC (TIAM-ECN) Hydrological analysis – Ethiopian part of Blue Nile river system Effect of future scenarios:

population growth Climate change – variability and vulnerability of hydro-

electricity generation Results from the Blue Nile – extrapolated to the national level Addressing in this way:

Global studies – challenges of renewable energy deployment (GEA 2012, IEA-ETP 2016)

How to provide “sustainable energy for all” in Africa (UN 2012) Deep-dive into nexus (IRENA 2015)

18 december 2017

Methodology

Soft-linkages between TIAM ECN and Ribasim

18 december 2017

Figure 1. Stylistic representation of the main TIAM-ECN inputs and outputs and how policy recommendations can be formulated on the basis of the latter

Figure 2b. RIBASIM model schematization of the Blue Nile river system.

Figure 2a. Blue Nile area in Ethiopia (in green).

Availability and distribution of water –time

Figure 8. Comparison of the timing between precipitation and water use for respectively power production, irrigation and domestic purposes in scenario R2.

18 december 2017

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mon

thly

hyd

ro-e

lect

ricity

prod

uctio

n [TW

h]

Mon

thly

rain

fall [

mm

] and

wat

er d

eman

d [m

3 /s]

Precipitation average [mm] Water demand - irrigation [m³/s]

Water demand - domestic [m³/s] Electricity production [TWh]

Combined insights

18 december 2017

Climate change (CC) in 2050

Scenario (RIBASIM/TIAM-ECN)

RIBASIM RIBASIM (corrected)

TIAM-ECN

Negligible CC R3 / - 46,030 GWh

73,190 GWh

-

Moderate CC R5 / RCP2.6 44,850 GWh

71,310 GWh

86,820 GWh

Enhanced CC - / Baseline - - 66,790 GWh

Table 2. Main results from the RIBASIM and TIAM-ECN models for annual average hydropower generation in 2050.

Highlights

With two models we assess the desirable and feasible level of hydropower in Ethiopia.

On economic and hydrological grounds we find it may increase to 71-87 TWh/yr in 2050.

This projected amount of hydro-electricity generation seems in reach of the national potential.

It is obtained despite possible average domestic hydrological effects from climate change.

Environmental, geopolitical, social and local climatic factors may lower it substantially

Potential soft-linking energy and water sector modelling tools: joint input assumptions

… Land turned out important bottleneck for biofuel production

18 december 2017

Analysis of Trade-offs and Synergies: Towards Climate Smart Solutions

18 december 2017

Water for Energy

18 december 2017

hydropower plantgeneration capacity

(MW)

People with access tomodern energy (goal:

100%)

Share of renewables intotal energy mix (Goal:

twice current)

Forest cover (%loss/year)

Percentage of children(<5year) stunted or

malnurished

River BasinHealth

Measures tolimit reservoirevaporation

Land requiredto build dam

(km2)

Hydropowerdam size(height)

Fish migrationflow

Number oflarge

hydropowerdams

Reservoirevaporative

losses

Annualdeforestation

rate

Area of naturalsystems

destroyed(km2)

Level ofdisturbance of

river ecosystem(downstream)

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

Hydropowerenergy generated

(MW/yr)

Land erosionlevel (upstream)

Landscape &Ecosystem Mgt.

Measures

-

+

+

Number of peopleaffected by waterborne

diseases

-

-

Multi-usereservoirs

Investing ininfrastructure

(?)

Reformingsubsidies (?)

Methaneemissions/yr

Climate Change

Number ofartificial

reservoirs+

+ + +

+

Loss ofagricultural

land (km2/yr)

+

Annual CropProduction(calories/yr)

Annual FishProduction(tons/yr)

+

-

-

-

-Reservoirvolume

+

+

Water forirrigation

+

+

+

ReservoirSiltation

+

-

Water Quality2

Droughtintensity

Averagetemperature

+

+

-

Local scale: Humera District, Baeker industrial Park

18 december 2017

Nico Rozemeijer (WUR), Eskedar Gebremedhin (Deltares)

Modelling approach: Ribasim - LEAP

Geographical focus on Humera district Study objectives - analyse:

• the feasibility of the Baeker industrial park within the broader and more longer-term Energy-Water-Food resource security context

• the potential WEF nexus solutions in Humera district

Case Study approach: • Work in collaboration with Sesame Business Academy / BENEFIT program

WUR • Two missions- involvement of key national/ regional stakeholders from 3

sectors Strenghten intersectoral coordination • Collaborative modelling approach: the nexus Game • Link to business models and climate finance

Modelling approach: Ribasim - LEAP

LEAP is an international used energy system modelling tool, developed by SEI-Boston.

LEAP is an modular accounting model covering demand and supply with some optimalisation possibilities in electricity generation. Possibility to include costs and environmental effects

Energy & Water demand scenarios up to 2050 have been developed: Baseline, Reference, Expanded Irrigation

Simulation Nexus Strategy

Food security questions

For the reference scenario: • Can Humera produce enough sesame to supply the IAIP? • Can Humera remain food secure and produce 2500 Kcal/p/d for the

increasing population?

For the expanded irrigation scenario: • What is the potential water-limited production of sesame?

39

Energy & Water challenges

Energy demand is projected to grow by a factor of 6 over the period 2017 – 2050. Households account for the largest share of total energy

consumption but share is expected to decrease from 76% in 2017 to 58% in 2050.

The transport sector is the fastest growing energy demand sector

Electricity and oil products are totally imported; wood resources will be depleted by 2034 if current trend continues

The Baeker industrial park seems feasible and sustainable from an energy sector point of view but will further increase pressure on wood resources

Water seems not a bottleneck danger to overexploit aquifers

Food security challenges

Rainfall is on average not the constraining factor in producing “enough” sesame and sorghum

To supply IAIP the sesame production needs to be doubled (preferably not by adding production land but by doubling yields)

Policy focus should be on improved agronomic practices and institutional environment

Investment in irrigation is not likely to be viable with current “bad” agronomic practices

Humera has potential to grow sufficient agricultural produce to make agro-processing (in IAIP) possible AND keep the district food secure in 2030 and 2050

41

Area A

Area C

Area B

Area F

Area D

Area E

Tekeze River Area

E

Wolkayt

Baeker Inudstrial park

Collaborative Nexus Game

Collaborative Nexus Game: Impact indicators

Indicator Description

Industrial water demand deficit: The unmet industrial demand in 2030 is 36% and in 2050 is 53%. Measure cards indicate the remaining percentage of unmet industrial demand following the implementation of the measure.

Irrigation water demand deficit: Deficits are given for both irrigation areas in Kafta Humera and Wolkayt. It is the same for both 2030 and 2050 Kafta Humera (KH): 100% irrigation water demands result in future planned irrigation Wolkayt (W): 100% irrigation water demands result in future planned irrigation Measure cards indicate the remaining percentage of unmet irrigation demand for each area following the implementation of the measure.

Domestic water demand deficit: The unmet demand in 2030 is 50% and in 2050 is 79%. Measure cards indicate the remaining percentage of unmet domestic demand following the implementation of the measure.

Cost of applied measures: assuming 100% cost available for not doing any measures to meet the demands in 2030 and 2050. Measure cards indicate the estimated respective cost of the implementation of the measure.

Afforestation (2050) Land use management

1

Plant trees in the immediate area of the river and upstream sub-watersheds. Increase ground water recharge. Certain demands of the domestic and industrial water will be met.

48%

70%

100% KH

100% W

5 %

Ground water Supply (2030)

3

Exploit groundwater resources for use in conjunction with surface water from the reservoir. Reduces both unmet industrial and domestic demands.

Conjunctive Use

20%

30%

100% KH

100% W

3 %

Potential WEF nexus solutions for Humera district

1. Construction of 100 MW solar power plant near Baeker 2. Introduction of more efficient cook stoves 3. Solar powered irrigation 4. Construction of multi purpose reservoir to store the water from

the Tekeze river 5. Afforestation 6. Land-use for biofuel production

Preliminary findings and the way forward

18 december 2017

The way forward

Significant funding gap to reach mitigation and adaptation goals and significant SDG gaps Critical to ensure “resilience” of investments and fast adoption of

Climate Smart Solutions Challenge: solutions are context specific

From global challenges, to national problems and Climate Smart Local Solutions: Advantages of a multi-scale Nexus Approach based on System Analysis Quick scan of future conflicts – priority regions First get “right” the problem If not clear – zoom in and quantify Identify leverage points (often pushed in the wrong direction) Generate climate smart development pathways

18 december 2017

Thank you for your attention Any questions?

Questions?

Mónica A. Altamirano, PhD Specialist in Public-Private Partnerships and Climate Finance Water Resources and Delta Management Department Email: monica.altamirano@deltares.nl

18 december 2017

Leverage points: place to intervene in a system

18 december 2017

Leverage points:

Technical and social Context specific Need to zoom in to specific case

18 december 2017