deutsche bank ag rating scorecard - key financial ratios · deutsche bank is engaged in a...

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 19 December 2017 Update RATINGS Deutsche Bank AG Domicile Frankfurt am Main, Germany Long Term Debt Baa2 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Long Term Deposit A3 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Peter E. Nerby, CFA 212-553-3782 Senior Vice President [email protected] Alessandro Roccati 44-20-7772-1603 Senior Vice President [email protected] Yana Ruvinskaya 44-20-7772-1618 Associate Analyst [email protected] Laurie Mayers 44-20-7772-5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Ana Arsov 212-553-3763 MD-Financial Institutions [email protected] Deutsche Bank AG Quarterly Update Summary On 12 December 2017, we affirmed the Baa2 senior unsecured rating of Deutsche Bank and changed the outlook for this debt class to negative. In 2017, Deutsche Bank management continues to execute a multi-faceted creditor-friendly reengineering plan. So far, earnings in 2017 have been modest, but the bank's EUR8 billion capital raise, completed in April 2017, has enhanced financial flexibility and its continued sound liquidity position has maintained bondholder protections. We assign to Deutsche Bank a long-term deposit rating of A3, a senior unsecured debt rating of Baa2 and a standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba1. We also assign short-term debt and deposit ratings of Prime-2 and a long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) of A3(cr)/ Prime-2(cr), to Deutsche Bank. The outlook on Deutsche Bank’s long-term debt ratings is negative and on deposit ratings is stable. Deutsche Bank's capital raise boosted the bank's fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio to 14.1% as at end-June 2017, strengthened customer and counterparty confidence and increased management's financial flexibility to reengineer the firm. The plan has been recalibrated to include (1) a decision to retain Deutsche Postbank AG (A3 stable/(P)Baa1, ba1) and integrate it into its existing German private, commercial banking and wealth management businesses (2) IPO a stake in its asset management division and (3) merge Global Markets, Corporate Finance and Transaction businesses into one division, with an increased emphasis on corporate clients. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios 1.9% 15.1% 0.1% 35.4% 42.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Deutsche Bank (BCA: ba1) Median ba1-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Source: Moody's financial metrics

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Page 1: Deutsche Bank AG Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios · Deutsche Bank is engaged in a multi-year undertaking to simplify its businesses, fortify its controls, strengthen its balance

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION19 December 2017

Update

RATINGS

Deutsche Bank AGDomicile Frankfurt am Main,

Germany

Long Term Debt Baa2

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Negative

Long Term Deposit A3

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Peter E. Nerby, CFA 212-553-3782Senior Vice [email protected]

Alessandro Roccati 44-20-7772-1603Senior Vice [email protected]

Yana Ruvinskaya 44-20-7772-1618Associate [email protected]

Laurie Mayers 44-20-7772-5582Associate [email protected]

Ana Arsov [email protected]

Deutsche Bank AGQuarterly Update

SummaryOn 12 December 2017, we affirmed the Baa2 senior unsecured rating of Deutsche Bank andchanged the outlook for this debt class to negative.

In 2017, Deutsche Bank management continues to execute a multi-faceted creditor-friendlyreengineering plan. So far, earnings in 2017 have been modest, but the bank's EUR8 billioncapital raise, completed in April 2017, has enhanced financial flexibility and its continuedsound liquidity position has maintained bondholder protections. We assign to Deutsche Banka long-term deposit rating of A3, a senior unsecured debt rating of Baa2 and a standalonebaseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba1. We also assign short-term debt and deposit ratingsof Prime-2 and a long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) of A3(cr)/Prime-2(cr), to Deutsche Bank. The outlook on Deutsche Bank’s long-term debt ratings isnegative and on deposit ratings is stable.

Deutsche Bank's capital raise boosted the bank's fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratioto 14.1% as at end-June 2017, strengthened customer and counterparty confidence andincreased management's financial flexibility to reengineer the firm. The plan has beenrecalibrated to include (1) a decision to retain Deutsche Postbank AG (A3 stable/(P)Baa1,ba1) and integrate it into its existing German private, commercial banking and wealthmanagement businesses (2) IPO a stake in its asset management division and (3) mergeGlobal Markets, Corporate Finance and Transaction businesses into one division, with anincreased emphasis on corporate clients.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios

1.9% 15.1% 0.1% 35.4% 42.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Deutsche Bank (BCA: ba1) Median ba1-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Source: Moody's financial metrics

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

The ba1 standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) of Deutsche Bank reflects the firm's modest profitability and elevated earningsvolatility during this period of restructuring, as well as a high dependence on capital markets businesses. The capital markets reliance isbalanced in part by the more stable retail banking, transaction services and asset and wealth management franchises.

Deutche Bank's BCA is supported by its strong+ macro profileDeutsche Bank's Strong+ macro profile is mainly driven by its exposure to Germany and the United States, to which we assign a `VeryStrong-`, assessment and partly offset by its exposures to other European countries which have weaker macro profiles (i.e. Spainand Italy). As the largest bank in Germany, Deutsche Bank benefits from an environment with very high economic, institutional andgovernment financial strength and very low susceptibility to event risk. Operating conditions for the German banking system are,however, constrained by high fragmentation in an over-saturated market, low interest rates, modest fee income generation and strongcompetition for domestic business.

Credit strengths

» Improved capital and leverage position helps to mitigate against tail risk

» Strategy to grow earnings contributions from less capital intensive businesses

» Strong liquidity position

» Substantial volume of and subordination beneath deposits, and significant volume of senior debt resulting in deposit and seniordebt ratings benefiting from three-notches and one-notch LGF uplift respectively from the BCA

» Moderate probability of government support resulting in one-notch uplift from BCA for senior debt and deposits

Credit challenges

» Execution challenges relating to reengineering

» Significant ongoing reliance on capital markets activities

» High earnings volatility and modest overall profitability during reengineering

Rating outlookThe outlook’s on Deutsche Bank’s ratings vary by instrument. The outlook on deposit ratings is stable, reflecting the potential long-term benefits to creditors of management’s strategic plan, balanced by the strategy’s near-term execution risks. Deutsche Bank'simproved capital position and sound liquidity profile provide important credit protections during this re-engineering. On 12 December,we changed the outlook for Deutsche Bank's senior unsecured debt rating to negative from stable, reflecting our view that, oncepending BRRD amendments are transposed into German law, unsecured bonds that meet the definition of article 46f of the Germanbanking act (§46f KWG) could rank pari passu with future junior senior bonds. This may call into question the moderate probability ofgovernment support we currently consider warranted for senior unsecured debt instruments.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeWhile the capital raise and strategic actions are credit positive, upward rating pressure will depend on the bank's continued progresstoward growing earnings from more stable and less capital intensive businesses while investing to strengthen the technology platformand control infrastructure of the bank.

Factors that could Lead to a downgradeThe current ratings incorporate the possibility of limited profitability in 2017. Further downward rating pressures would develop if thereare significant delays or failures to substantially achieve the strategic plan. This could result from additional environmental headwindsor from additional litigation costs beyond those covered by existing reserves.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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We may downgrade by one notch the senior unsecured debt instrument ratings that currently incorporate one notch of governmentsupport if German legislative changes rank outstanding senior unsecured debt instruments pari-passu with future issuance of juniorsenior debt. For additional information, please refer to LINK TO PR and to LINK TO SPECIAL COMMENT.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Deutsche Bank AG (Consolidated Financials) [1]9-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 12-133 CAGR/Avg.4

Total Assets (EUR billion) 1,146 1,098 1,085 1,045 1,094 1.35

Total Assets (USD billion) 1,355 1,158 1,179 1,265 1,507 -2.85

Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) 54 46 47 50 37 10.45

Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 63 48 51 60 51 5.95

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.06

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 15.1 12.8 11.9 12.6 12.3 13.17

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 11.6 14.9 15.3 16.6 23.7 16.46

Net Interest Margin (%) 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.46

PPI / Average RWA (%) 1.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.77

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.16

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 86.1 94.9 95.8 87.6 88.6 90.66

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 30.0 35.4 31.1 31.9 36.8 33.16

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 43.2 42.2 40.5 37.6 37.2 40.16

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 69.7 79.5 79.8 80.7 76.3 77.26

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] May include rounding differences dueto scale of reported amounts [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [6] Simple average of periods presented for the latestaccounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel III periods presentedSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

Detailed credit considerationsOur assigned Asset Risk score of baa3 incorporates the execution risks associated with Deutsche Bank's ongoing reengineering program- as well as the market, credit and operational risks and periodic concentration risks inherent to Deutsche Bank's capital marketactivities.

Execution challenges relating to reengineeringSince 2010, the earnings volatility of Deutsche Bank has been higher than many of its global investment banking peers, givenheightened restructuring and litigation costs and the drag of its legacy portfolio. Deutsche Bank is engaged in a multi-year undertakingto simplify its businesses, fortify its controls, strengthen its balance sheet and stabilize its earnings.

The bank’s strategy includes a number of credit-positive targets including maintaining at least a 13% Core Equity Tier 1 ratio andachieving a 4.5% leverage ratio, while reducing its targeted return on tangible equity to 10% (from greater than 10% previously). Thebank also announced its intention to achieve a EUR 22 billion cost base by 2018 and a EUR 21 billion cost base by 2021.

The decision to retain, rather than dispose of Postbank may have reflected an inability to sell the subsidiary at a reasonable price.Nonetheless, integration of Deutsche Bank’s German banking operations, if approved by regulators, may eventually bring bondholderbenefits in the form of fungible liquidity across the bank, as well as a greater contribution of earnings from German retail banking,bringing more balance to the business mix. Deutsche Bank announced a target cost-income ratio of 65% for its combined Germanretail banking operations which we believe may be difficult to achieve given they reported an 85% cost-to-come ratios for their Privateand Commercial Banking division in H1 2017.

The full achievement of the new strategy would be positive for bondholders. Strengthening and stabilizing earnings in these businesseswould create better balance to the business mix and help protect bondholders against the volatility of capital markets businesses

3 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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through the cycle. Today, however, the potential benefits to creditors of achieving these targets are largely offset by the considerableexecution risks of the plan.

Significant reliance on capital market activitiesDeutsche Bank has a heavy reliance on capital markets activities for income generation – capital markets revenues accounted for 39%of Deutsche Bank’s revenues in H1 2017. This is a principal factor in our one notch negative adjustment for opacity and complexity inthe scorecard.

Like many of its competitors, Deutsche Bank's capital markets businesses are undergoing extensive reconfiguration in the face ofregulatory change. Deutsche Bank's strategy is to defend its position amongst the major global investment banks, as many middle-tier players exit various businesses and shrink their global trading platforms, while targeting more closely on clients with whom it cangenerate adequate risk adjusted returns. In the long run, management believes that European fixed income markets should continueto grow due to regulatory and demographic changes. In addition, the firm is targeting selected investment in its US capital marketsplatform.

At the same time management has shrunk the Global Markets balance sheet, front office head count and operating costs by doubledigit percentages since the 2011 peak. As part of the revised strategic plan, management merged the Global Markets unit back intothe Corporate and Investment Banking division, creating one division housing all of the capital market activities, corporate financeand transactional banking services of the bank. They have also earmarked certain activities including rates products that they wish todiscontinue and run off. Management has also shrunk its geographic footprint by exiting 10 local markets, rationalising its client baseand increasing its focus on corporate clients.

Improved capital and leverage position helps to mitigate against tail riskOur assigned Capital score of baa2 reflects the improved capital position of Deutsche Bank following the EUR8 billion common equityraise and reduced tail risks resulting from recent litigation resolutions.

Since end June 2015, when new management took control, litigation, legacy and reengineering costs have impaired Deutsche Bank’sability to generate significant profitability. Minimizing erosion of capital ratios had required rapid RWA reduction. However, followingthe common equity raise, closed in Q2 2017, Deutsche Bank’s fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 14.1% as at end-June, enhancing overall financial flexibility and reducing pressure to shrink RWA.

As well as raising capital, Deutsche Bank has resolved several litigations that posed large tail risks for bondholders. In December 2016,Deutsche Bank settled with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) regarding residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) by paying a$3.1 billion cash settlement and agreeing to provide a further $4.1 billion in customer relief, provided over a five-year period. DeutscheBank also announced settlements with both the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) and the UK Financial ConductAuthority (FCA) for a total of $630 million in relation to the Russian ‘mirror’ trading investigation. This settlement was fully coveredby existing provisions; however, there remain outstanding enquiries into the mirror trades by criminal authorities, which are not yetresolved. Management has continued to guide to the possibility of elevated litigation costs in the remainder of 2017. Total litigationreserves stood at EUR2.5 billion at end-June 2017 and the amount of reasonably possible contingent liabilities stood at EUR 1.8 billionat end-June 2017.

High earnings volatility and modest overall profitability during reengineeringDeutsche Bank's historically high levels of earnings volatility and modest profitability remain a relative weakness for the ba1 BCA.Despite the cost savings realized under the previous strategic plan, reported profitability at Deutsche Bank has remained weak, due topersistent headwinds in the form of higher litigation, regulatory, restructuring and legacy costs. Profitability has recovered somewhatin the first half of 2017, with the firm reporting approximately EUR2 billion of pretax profit (adjusting for derivative valuation effects).Nonetheless, low rates are hurting margins within the retail bank (PCB) and within the transaction bank (within CIB). Our assignedProfitability score of b1 is in line with our forecasts and reflects the challenges the bank faces over the next 12-18 months.

A key pillar of the new strategy is the restructuring program. DB's targets restructuring costs of around EUR2 billion over the period2017-2021 with the majority of costs to be incurred over the next 2 years. In the eight quarters through Q2 2017, since the newmanagement team took responsibility, the firm has incurred EUR 1.7 billion in restructuring costs. Deutsche Bank continued to make

4 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

good progress in reducing its cost base in Q2 2017. Overall, operating expenses were down 15% owing to lower restructuring andimpairment charges. On an underlying basis, adjusted costs were down 5% year on year to €5.7 billion (excluding foreign currencyeffects) reflecting ongoing cost management efforts and the absence of costs related to the running of the Non-Core Operating Unit(NCOU) that was closed during Q4 2016. Progress on costs comes despite continued investment in the technological transformationof the bank.

For a discussion of 3Q 2017 results please see Earnings Commentary dated 26 October 2017

Strategy to grow earnings contributions from less capital intensive businessesWithin universal banks with extensive capital market operations, we view diversified earnings streams as a source of strategic flexibilityand a mitigant to the expected cyclicality of capital market results over time. Deutsche Bank is attempting to rebalance its businessmix and increase the contribution to earnings from more stable lines of business: retail banking (PCB), transaction banking (within CIB)and asset management (DeAM).

Deutsche Bank operates its retail franchise across two brands, Postbank in Germany and Deutsche Bank in Germany as well as sixother countries. As part of its strategy, Deutsche Bank will retain Postbank and merge the back office activities whilst keeping thedistribution channels. Refocusing the PCB franchise aims to achieve greater profitability through divestitures cost reduction andproduct simplification. In Q2 2017 pre-tax income and revenues of the division were broadly flat compared with the same periodlast year (excluding the gain of the sale of the stake in Visa Europe in Q2 2016). Postbank revenues were up 6% (excluding Visa gainand loss on termination of legacy securities) as a result of growth in loan products and fee income related to current accounts andinvestment products, offsetting the effects of the low interest rate environment.

Housed within the Corporate and Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank's transaction banking franchise is an attractive business forbondholders. Their transaction banking business has a well-balanced revenue mix across trade finance, cash management (forcorporate and financial institutions) and trust and securities services. The division is truly global - with over 70% of both clients andemployees based outside Germany - and has a generally consistent track record of producing steady and growing profits for DeutscheBank with only occasional lumpy credit or restructuring charges. CIB reported pretax profits of EUR1,691 million in 2016. In Q2 2017,CIB reported a pre-tax profit of €543 million compared to €460 million profit for the same period last year. Revenues were down 16%year on year, as revenues declined across all businesses.

As part of the its strategy, Deutsche Bank intends to IPO a minority stake in it’s asset management division. Deutsche Bank expectsthat this will enable the division to better align compensation and help retain and attract talent. Deutsche Bank has substantiallystrengthened profitability in this division since 2012, by wringing cost savings out of the business by combining three platforms intoone new unit. Deutsche Bank plans to further expand DeAM by growing assets under management at an annual rate and increasingits relationship management staff by over 15% in key markets (Asia, the Middle East, the US and the UK) and further streamliningfootprint to improve the cost-income ratio. In Q2 2017 the division reported a pre-tax profit of €234 million compared to a €170million pre-tax profit a year previously. AM was the only division to report an increase in revenues year on year. Excluding AbbeyLife, revenues increased 7% driven by higher performance fees in Alternatives and management fees as a result of improved marketconditions.

Strong liquidity positionOur a3 combined liquidity score highlights funding and liquidity as a relative strength for the BCA and reflects the large proportion ofmarket funds, a consequence of the substantial capital markets activity, mitigated by a large portion of liquid resources.

Like most GIBs, Deutsche Bank has strengthened its liquidity profile (partly as a response to enhanced regulation). Its balance sheet hasshrunk and its reliance on wholesale funding has declined as non-core assets are monetized. At end-June 2017, the firm held EUR285billion in liquidity reserves and reported an LCR of 144%.

Support and structural considerationsLoss-given failureDeutsche Bank is subject to the EU Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational ResolutionRegime. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% runoff in

5 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

“junior” wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits. These are in line with our standard assumptions. In line with the newGerman insolvency legislation that has effectively subordinated non-structured senior bonds and notes to deposits in resolution sinceJanuary 2017, we base our calculation on the assumption that deposits and complex structured notes are preferred to most seniorunsecured debt instruments

We included in our balance sheet at failure our estimate of deposits and assets relating to Deutsche Bank's branches, Postbank andother unrated subsidiaries. As a result of this scenario analysis, we believe that Deutsche Bank's deposits are likely to face extremelylow loss-given-failure, due to the loss absorption provided by subordinated debt and, senior unsecured debt now that deposits willbe treated preferentially in a resolution, as well as the very substantial volume of deposits themselves. This results in three notches ofuplift for deposits relative to the ba1 BCA under our advanced LGF analysis.

Deutsche Bank's senior unsecured debt is likely to face low loss-given failure resulting in one notch of uplift from the BCA due to theirsubstantial volume. For junior securities issued by Deutsche Bank, our LGF analysis confirms a high level loss-given failure, given thesmall volume of debt and limited protection from more subordinated instruments and residual equity. We also incorporate additionalnotching from the BCA for junior subordinated and preference share instruments reflecting the coupon suspension risk ahead ofpotential failure.

Government supportThe implementation of the BRRD has caused us to reconsider the potential for government support to benefit certain creditors.We now expect a moderate probability of government support for Deutsche Bank's deposits and long-term debt and counterpartyobligations. This results in one notch of additional uplift beyond that derived from LGF for both senior debt and deposits, producing afinal rating of A3 for deposits and Baa2 for senior unsecured debt.

For other junior securities, we continue to believe that the potential for government support is low and these ratings do not, therefore,include any related uplift.

Counterparty risk assessmentCR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

Deutsche Bank AG's CR Assessment is positioned at A3(cr)/Prime-2(cr). The CR Assessment, prior to government support, is positionedthree notches above the Adjusted BCA of ba1, based on the substantial cushion against default provided to the senior obligationsrepresented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments. The main difference with our Advanced LGF approach used todetermine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default on certain senior obligations, rather thanexpected loss, therefore we focus purely on subordination and take no account of the volume of the instrument class.

The CR Assessment also benefits from one notch of systemic support, in line with our support assumptions on deposits and seniorunsecured debt. This reflects our view that any support provided by governmental authorities to a bank which benefits seniorunsecured debt or deposits is very likely to benefit operating activities and obligations reflected by the CR Assessment as well,consistent with our belief that governments are likely to maintain such operations as a going-concern in order to reduce contagion andpreserve a bank's critical functions.

About Moody's ScorecardOur Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

The financial data in the attached scorecard are sourced from Deutsche Bank AG's financial statements at end-June 2017.

6 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 3

Deutsche Bank AGMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong + 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

MacroAdjusted

Score

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 1.9% a1 ← → baa3 Litigation risk Market risk

CapitalTCE / RWA 15.1% aa3 ← → baa2 Expected trend Nominal leverage

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.1% b3 ↑ b1 Earnings quality Return on assets

Combined Solvency Score a3 ba1LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 35.4% ba2 ← → baa2 Extent of market

funding relianceLiquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 42.2% aa3 ← → a1 Quality of

liquid assetsCombined Liquidity Score baa2 a3Financial Profile baa3

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity -1Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments -1Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: AaaScorecard Calculated BCA range baa3-ba2Assigned BCA ba1Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA ba1

Balance Sheet is not applicable.

7 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Assessment -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 0 baa1 (cr)Senior senior unsecured bank debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 0 baa1Deposits -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 0 baa1Senior unsecured bank debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 0 baa3Dated subordinated bank debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -1 0 ba2Non-cumulative bank preference shares -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -1 -2 b1 (hyb)

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 baa1 (cr) 1 A3 (cr) --Senior senior unsecured bank debt 3 0 baa1 1 A3 A3Deposits 3 0 baa1 1 A3 A3Senior unsecured bank debt 1 0 baa3 1 (P)Baa2 Baa2Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 ba2 0 Ba2 Ba2Non-cumulative bank preference shares -1 -2 b1 (hyb) 0 B1 (hyb) B1 (hyb)Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 4Category Moody's RatingDEUTSCHE BANK AG

Outlook Stable(m)Bank Deposits A3/P-2Baseline Credit Assessment ba1Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba1Counterparty Risk Assessment A3(cr)/P-2(cr)Issuer Rating Baa2Senior Unsecured Baa2Subordinate Ba2Pref. Stock Non-cumulative B1 (hyb)Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-2Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-2

DEUTSCHE BANK TRUST COMPANY AMERICAS

Outlook StableBank Deposits A2/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment baa1Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment baa1Counterparty Risk Assessment A3(cr)/P-2(cr)Issuer Rating Baa2

DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG

Outlook StableBank Deposits A3/P-2Baseline Credit Assessment ba1Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba1Counterparty Risk Assessment A3(cr)/P-2(cr)Senior Unsecured MTN -Dom Curr (P)Baa2Subordinate Ba2Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-2Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

8 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

© 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDITRISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THERELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITYMAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGSDO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’SOPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVEMODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’SPUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOTPROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THESUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATIONAND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FORPURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FORRETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACTYOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW,AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTEDOR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANYPERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as wellas other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information ituses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However,MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody’s publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for anyindirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use anysuch information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses ordamages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of aparticular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatorylosses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for theavoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents,representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCHRATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintainpolicies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO andrated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion asto the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be recklessand inappropriate for retail investors to use MOODY’S credit ratings or publications when making an investment decision. If in doubt you should contact your financial or otherprofessional adviser.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it feesranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1105078

9 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update

Page 10: Deutsche Bank AG Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios · Deutsche Bank is engaged in a multi-year undertaking to simplify its businesses, fortify its controls, strengthen its balance

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

10 19 December 2017 Deutsche Bank AG: Quarterly Update