Determining theNew York Control Area (NYCA) Installed Reserve Requirements

Presented to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee

November 18, 2004

Frank J. Vitale, PE

New York State Reliability Council(NYSRC)www.nysrc.orgNew York Independent System Operator(NYISO)www.nyiso.comInstalled Capacity Subcommittee(ICS)ConsultantsFrank J Vitale, PEAlan M. AdamsonLocational Requirements

Determining NYCAsInstalled Reserve Margin (IRM)

To meet Reliability Criterion

Use the General Electric Multi-Area Reliability Simulation Program (MARS)

Reliability Criterion for a Generation Shortage Fixed Installed Reserve MarginLoss of Largest UnitLoss of Energy Expectation (LOEE)Used mainly by hydro systemsLoss of Load Expectation (LOLE)Due to a lack of generationMost widely usedUsed by NYSRC (1 day in 10 LOLE)

Areas Modeled

DysingerEast

WestCentral

VolneyEast

MosesSouth

TotalEast

CentralEast

UPNY/SENY

UPNY/CE

MillwoodSouth

DunwoodieSouth

CE-LIPA

A

B

B

C

E

D

F

G

H

I

J

K

NEW YORK CONTROL AREALOAD ZONES

Figure A-2

J Represents New York CityK Represents Long Island

New York Control AreaTransmission SystemRepresentationFor 2004 IRM StudySummer Ratings

HQ

PJM

NE

IMO

C

B

J

K

I

H

F to G

UPNY/CE

Mill. South

Dunwd South

Moses South

Dys. East

West Cent

Vol. East

Cent. East Plus Fraser-Gilboa

1600

616**

616**

1999

1100

1100

550

550

1000

0

8450

1999

3700

1000

1500

4270

2900

400

400

2600

1999

1300

1770

1999

1550

1450

1999

5600

September 3 , 2003

Figure A-10

Total East

UPNY/SENY*

LI Sum

CE-LIPA

350

350

1520

530

1270

530

250

420

6100

1999

5100

500

800

500

800

0

150

1999

3250

1600

1600

1999

3720

1100

2000

CE GROUP

Y4950

Marcy South

NE/SENY

Sets flow on these two interfaces to be equal

* 5100 reduces to 4700 with Athens at full power

* * Includes 330 MW HVDC tie

3400

4650

1999

MARS ProgramDeveloped by GE withNew York Power Pool (NYPP)Empire State Electric Energy & Research Corp.Roy Billinton PhD.

It is a sequential Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo SimulationRandom events to be consideredGenerator forced outagesCable forced outagesVariations in forecasted loadsSystem scenario created by randomly drawing availability of equipment and load demandReliability indices determined for given scenarioYear is simulated with different sets of random events until statistical convergence is obtained

Factors Influencing ConvergenceNumber of units and size relative to loadMany units small in comparison to load results in less year-to-year variation and faster convergenceStrength of transmission network between interconnected Zones and AreasStrong ties reduces yearly variationsLevel of reliabilityHighly reliable systems converge more slowly

Sample Output

Chart2

101

20.07

30.049

40.04

50.032

60.027

70.037

80.049

90.047

100.045

110.055

120.077

130.081

140.078

150.095

160.093

170.091

180.094

190.093

200.092

210.09

220.089

230.086

240.083

250.08

260.082

270.08

280.078

290.078

300.078

310.078

320.078

330.076

340.074

350.076

360.076

370.076

380.075

390.073

400.072

410.072

420.072

430.071

440.073

450.071

460.079

470.078

480.079

490.079

500.08

510.08

520.079

530.08

540.089

550.088

560.088

570.087

580.086

590.089

600.088

610.087

620.086

630.113

640.111

650.109

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800.1

810.098

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830.097

840.097

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870.095

880.094

890.098

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910.099

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12340.101

12350.101

12360.101

12370.101

12380.101

12390.1

12400.1

12410.1

12420.1

12430.1

12440.1

12450.1

12460.1

12470.1

12480.1

12490.1

12500.1

12510.1

12520.1

12530.1

12540.1

12550.1

12560.1

12570.1

12580.1

12590.099

12600.099

12610.1

12620.1

12630.099

12640.099

12650.099

12660.099

12670.099

12680.099

12690.099

12700.099

12710.099

12720.099

12730.099

12740.099

12750.099

12760.099

12770.099

12780.099

12790.099

12800.099

12810.099

12820.099

12830.098

12840.098

12850.098

12860.098

12870.099

12880.099

12890.099

12900.099

12910.099

12920.099

12930.099

12940.099

12950.099

12960.099

12970.099

12980.1

12990.1

13000.1

13010.1

13020.1

13030.1

13040.1

13050.1

13060.1

13070.1

13080.1

13090.101

13100.101

13110.101

13120.101

13130.101

13140.101

13150.101

13160.101

13170.101

13180.101

13190.101

13200.101

13210.101

13220.101

13230.101

13240.101

13250.101

13260.101

13270.101

13280.101

13290.101

13300.101

13310.1

13320.1

13330.1

13340.1

13350.1

13360.1

13370.1

13380.1

13390.1

13400.1

13410.1

13420.1

13430.1

13440.1

13450.1

13460.1

13470.1

13480.1

13490.1

13500.1

13510.1

13520.101

13530.101

13540.1

13550.1

13560.1

13570.1

13580.1

13590.1

13600.1

13610.1

13620.1

13630.1

13640.1

13650.1

13660.1

13670.1

13680.1

13690.1

13700.1

13710.1

13720.1

13730.1

13740.1

13750.1

13760.1

13770.1

13780.1

13790.1

13800.1

13810.1

13820.1

13830.1

13840.1

13850.1

13860.1

13870.1

13880.1

13890.1

13900.1

13910.1

13920.1

13930.1

13940.1

13950.1

13960.1

13970.1

13980.1

13990.1

14000.1

14010.1

14020.099

14030.099

14040.099

14050.099

14060.099

14070.099

14080.099

14090.099

14100.099

14110.099

14120.099

14130.099

14140.099

14150.099

14160.099

14170.099

14180.099

14190.099

14200.099

14210.099

14220.099

14230.099

14240.099

14250.099

14260.099

14270.099

14280.099

14290.099

14300.099

14310.099

14320.099

14330.099

14340.099

14350.099

14360.099

14370.099

14380.099

14390.099

14400.099

14410.099

14420.099

14430.099

14440.099

14450.099

14460.099

14470.098

14480.098

14490.098

14500.099

14510.099

14520.099

14530.099

14540.099

14550.099

14560.099

14570.098

14580.098

14590.098

14600.099

14610.099

14620.099

14630.099

14640.099

14650.099

14660.099

14670.099

14680.099

14690.099

14700.099

14710.099

14720.099

14730.099

14740.099

14750.099

14760.099

14770.099

14780.1

14790.1

14800.1

14810.1

14820.1

14830.1

14840.1

14850.1

14860.099

14870.099

14880.099

14890.099

14900.099

14910.099

14920.099

14930.099

14940.1

14950.1

14960.099

14970.099

14980.099

14990.099

15000.099

#REF!

REF

#REF!

Replications

LOLE - Days per Year

Graph

REF

10

20.07

30.049

40.04

50.032

60.027

70.037

80.049

90.047

100.045

110.055

120.077

130.081

140.078

150.095

160.093

170.091

180.094

190.093

200.092

210.09

220.089

230.086

240.083

250.08

260.082

270.08

280.078

290.078

300.078

310.078

320.078

330.076

340.074

350.076

360.076

370.076

380.075

390.073

400.072

410.072

420.072

430.071

440.073

450.071

460.079

470.078

480.079

490.079

500.08

510.08

520.079

530.08

540.089

550.088

560.088

570.087

580.086

590.089

600.088

610.087

620.086

630.113

640.111

650.109

660.108

670.113

680.112

690.111

700.112

710.11

720.109

730.108

740.107

750.106

760.105

770.103

780.102

790.101

800.1

810.098

820.098

830.097

840.097

850.096

860.095

870.095

880.094

890.098

900.098

910.099

920.098

930.097

940.103

950.113

960.112

970.111

980.11

990.109

1000.11

1010.118

1020.117

1030.116

1040.115

1050.115

1060.115

1070.114

1080.115

1090.114

1100.115

1110.115

1120.118

1130.117

1140.116

1150.116

1160.116

1170.115

1180.114

1190.113

1200.114

1210.113

1220.113

1230.112

1240.124

1250.124

1260.123

1270.122

1280.124

1290.123

1300.122

1310.121

1320.123

1330.122

1340.122

1350.121

1360.12

1370.119

1380.119

1390.118

1400.118

1410.117

1420.117

1430.117

1440.116

1450.115

1460.114

1470.128

1480.128

1490.128

1500.127

1510.127

1520.126

1530.126

1540.125

1550.125

1560.125

1570.124

1580.124

1590.123

1600.122

1610.122

1620.121

1630.122

1640.121

1650.127

1660.133

1670.132

1680.132

1690.131

1700.132

1710.131

1720.13

1730.13

1740.13

1750.13

1760.132

1770.132

1780.131

1790.131

1800.13

1810.13

1820.129

1830.129

1840.129

1850.129

1860.129

1870.129

1880.138

1890.137

1900.137

1910.139

1920.138

1930.138

1940.138

1950.139

1960.138

1970.138

1980.137

1990.137

2000.137

2010.137

2020.138

2030.137

2040.137

2050.137

2060.137

2070.136

2080.136

2090.135

2100.134

2110.134

2120.134

2130.133

2140.133

2150.133

2160.132

2170.131

2180.131

2190.131

2200.131

2210.133

2220.133

2230.134

2240.133

2250.133

2260.132

2270.132

2280.131

2290.131

2300.132

2310.131

2320.131

2330.131

2340.13

2350.13

2360.129

2370.129

2380.13

2390.132

2400.131

2410.131

2420.131

2430.131

2440.13

2450.13

2460.129

2470.129

2480.128

2490.129

2500.13

2510.129

2520.129

2530.128

2540.128

2550.128

2560.128

2570.127

2580.127

2590.127

2600.127

2610.126

2620.126

2630.126

2640.126

2650.127

2660.126

2670.126

2680.126

2690.125

2700.125

2710.125

2720.125

2730.124

2740.124

2750.125

2760.125

2770.124

2780.124

2790.123

2800.123

2810.122

2820.123

2830.122

2840.123

2850.122

2860.122

2870.122

2880.121

2890.121

2900.121

2910.121

2920.12

2930.12

2940.121

2950.12

2960.12

2970.12

2980.12

2990.119

3000.119

3010.119

3020.118

3030.119

3040.118

3050.118

3060.118

3070.117

3080.117

3090.119

3100.118

3110.118

3120.118

3130.12

3140.12

3150.12

3160.12

3170.12

3180.119

3190.119

3200.12

3210.119

3220.119

3230.119

3240.119

3250.118

3260.118

3270.118

3280.118

3290.118

3300.117

3310.117

3320.118

3330.118

3340.117

3350.117

3360.116

3370.116

3380.116

3390.116

3400.115

3410.117

3420.117

3430.117

3440.119

3450.125

3460.125

3470.125

3480.125

3490.125

3500.124

3510.124

3520.124

3530.124

3540.124

3550.123

3560.123

3570.123

3580.122

3590.122

3600.122

3610.122

3620.121

3630.124

3640.123

3650.123

3660.123

3670.123

3680.123

3690.123

3700.123

3710.123

3720.123

3730.122

3740.124

3750.123

3760.123

3770.123

3780.122

3790.122

3800.122

3810.124

3820.124

3830.124

3840.124

3850.124

3860.124

3870.124

3880.123

3890.123

3900.123

3910.123

3920.124

3930.124

3940.124

3950.123

3960.123

3970.123

3980.123

3990.122

4000.122

4010.122

4020.122

4030.123

4040.123

4050.123

4060.123

4070.123

4080.123

4090.123

4100.123

4110.122

4120.122

4130.122

4140.122

4150.122

4160.122

4170.121

4180.123

4190.123

4200.122

4210.122

4220.122

4230.121

4240.122

4250.121

4260.121

4270.121

4280.121

4290.12

4300.12

4310.121

4320.121

4330.121

4340.121

4350.121

4360.12

4370.12

4380.12

4390.12

4400.12

4410.119

4420.119

4430.119

4440.119

4450.119

4460.118

4470.118

4480.118

4490.118

4500.118

4510.118

4520.118

4530.117

4540.117

4550.117

4560.117

4570.117

4580.117

4590.116

4600.116

4610.116

4620.116

4630.116

4640.115

4650.115

4660.115

4670.115

4680.115

4690.114

4700.114

4710.114

4720.114

4730.114

4740.113

4750.113

4760.113

4770.114

4780.113

4790.113

4800.113

4810.114

4820.114

4830.114

4840.114

4850.114

4860.113

4870.113

4880.113

4890.113

4900.113

4910.114

4920.114

4930.114

4940.114

4950.113

4960.113

4970.113

4980.113

4990.113

5000.113

5010.112

5020.112

5030.112

5040.112

5050.112

5060.111

5070.111

5080.111

5090.111

5100.111

5110.111

5120.111

5130.111

5140.111

5150.111

5160.11

5170.11

5180.11

5190.11

5200.11

5210.11

5220.11

5230.11

5240.11

5250.109

5260.109

5270.109

5280.109

5290.109

5300.108

5310.108

5320.108

5330.108

5340.108

5350.108

5360.108

5370.108

5380.108

5390.108

5400.108

5410.108

5420.108

5430.108

5440.107

5450.107

5460.107

5470.107

5480.107

5490.107

5500.107

5510.107

5520.106

5530.106

5540.106

5550.106

5560.106

5570.106

5580.105

5590.105

5600.106

5610.106

5620.105

5630.105

5640.105

5650.105

5660.105

5670.105

5680.105

5690.105

5700.105

5710.104

5720.105

5730.105

5740.105

5750.105

5760.104

5770.104

5780.104

5790.104

5800.104

5810.104

5820.104

5830.103

5840.103

5850.103

5860.103

5870.103

5880.103

5890.103

5900.103

5910.103

5920.104

5930.104

5940.103

5950.103

5960.103

5970.104

5980.108

5990.108

6000.108

6010.107

6020.107

6030.108

6040.108

6050.108

6060.107

6070.107

6080.107

6090.107

6100.107

6110.107

6120.107

6130.108

6140.108

6150.108

6160.108

6170.108

6180.107

6190.107

6200.109

6210.108

6220.109

6230.108

6240.108

6250.108

6260.108

6270.108

6280.108

6290.108

6300.108

6310.108

6320.108

6330.108

6340.107

6350.107

6360.107

6370.107

6380.107

6390.107

6400.107

6410.107

6420.107

6430.106

6440.106

6450.106

6460.106

6470.107

6480.107

6490.107

6500.107

6510.106

6520.106

6530.106

6540.106

6550.106

6560.106

6570.106

6580.108

6590.108

6600.108

6610.108

6620.108

6630.108

6640.107

6650.107

6660.107

6670.107

6680.107

6690.107

6700.107

6710.107

6720.106

6730.106

6740.106

6750.106

6760.106

6770.106

6780.107

6790.106

6800.107

6810.107

6820.107

6830.107

6840.107

6850.106

6860.106

6870.106

6880.106

6890.106

6900.106

6910.106

6920.106

6930.106

6940.106

6950.106

6960.106

6970.105

6980.105

6990.105

7000.106

7010.106

7020.105

7030.105

7040.105

7050.105

7060.105

7070.105

7080.105

7090.105

7100.106

7110.106

7120.107

7130.107

7140.107

7150.106

7160.106

7170.106

7180.106

7190.106

7200.106

7210.106

7220.106

7230.106

7240.106

7250.106

7260.106

7270.106

7280.105

7290.105

7300.105

7310.105

7320.105

7330.106

7340.106

7350.106

7360.106

7370.106

7380.106

7390.106

7400.106

7410.106

7420.106

7430.105

7440.105

7450.105

7460.106

7470.106

7480.106

7490.106

7500.106

7510.106

7520.106

7530.106

7540.106

7550.105

7560.105

7570.105

7580.106

7590.106

7600.106

7610.106

7620.105

7630.105

7640.105

7650.105

7660.105

7670.105

7680.105

7690.105

7700.105

7710.105

7720.105

7730.105

7740.105

7750.105

7760.105

7770.104

7780.104

7790.104

7800.105

7810.105

7820.105

7830.105

7840.105

7850.105

7860.105

7870.104

7880.104

7890.104

7900.104

7910.104

7920.105

7930.108

7940.108

7950.108

7960.108

7970.107

7980.107

7990.107

8000.108

8010.108

8020.108

8030.108

8040.108

8050.108

8060.108

8070.109

8080.109

8090.109

8100.109

8110.109

8120.109

8130.109

8140.109

8150.109

8160.109

8170.109

8180.109

8190.109

8200.109

8210.109

8220.109

8230.109

8240.109

8250.109

8260.109

8270.109

8280.109

8290.109

8300.109

8310.109

8320.109

8330.109

8340.109

8350.109

8360.109

8370.109

8380.109

8390.109

8400.108

8410.108

8420.108

8430.108

8440.108

8450.108

8460.108

8470.108

8480.108

8490.108

8500.107

8510.107

8520.107

8530.107

8540.107

8550.107

8560.107

8570.107

8580.107

8590.107

8600.106

8610.107

8620.107

8630.107

8640.106

8650.107

8660.107

8670.107

8680.107

8690.107

8700.107

8710.107

8720.107

8730.106

8740.106

8750.106

8760.106

8770.106

8780.106

8790.106

8800.106

8810.106

8820.106

8830.106

8840.106

8850.106

8860.106

8870.106

8880.106

8890.106

8900.106

8910.106

8920.106

8930.106

8940.105

8950.105

8960.105

8970.106

8980.106

8990.105

9000.105

9010.105

9020.105

9030.105

9040.105

9050.105

9060.105

9070.105

9080.105

9090.105

9100.105

9110.105

9120.104

9130.104

9140.104

9150.104

9160.104

9170.104

9180.104

9190.104

9200.104

9210.104

9220.104

9230.104

9240.104

9250.104

9260.104

9270.104

9280.104

9290.104

9300.104

9310.104

9320.104

9330.104

9340.104

9350.104

9360.104

9370.103

9380.103

9390.103

9400.103

9410.103

9420.103

9430.103

9440.103

9450.103

9460.103

9470.103

9480.103

9490.103

9500.103

9510.103

9520.103

9530.103

9540.103

9550.103

9560.103

9570.103

9580.104

9590.104

9600.104

9610.104

9620.104

9630.103

9640.103

9650.104

9660.104

9670.104

9680.104

9690.104

9700.104

9710.104

9720.104

9730.104

9740.103

9750.103

9760.103

9770.103

9780.103

9790.103

9800.103

9810.103

9820.104

9830.103

9840.103

9850.108

9860.108

9870.107

9880.107

9890.107

9900.107

9910.107

9920.107

9930.107

9940.107

9950.107

9960.107

9970.107

9980.107

9990.107

10000.107

10010.107

10020.107

10030.107

10040.107

10050.107

10060.107

10070.107

10080.107

10090.107

10100.107

10110.106

10120.106

10130.106

10140.106

10150.106

10160.106

10170.106

10180.106

10190.106

10200.106

10210.106

10220.106

10230.106

10240.106

10250.106

10260.106

10270.106

10280.106

10290.106

10300.105

10310.105

10320.105

10330.105

10340.105

10350.105

10360.105

10370.105

10380.105

10390.105

10400.105

10410.105

10420.105

10430.105

10440.105

10450.105

10460.105

10470.104

10480.104

10490.104

10500.105

10510.105

10520.105

10530.105

10540.105

10550.105

10560.105

10570.105

10580.105

10590.104

10600.104

10610.104

10620.104

10630.104

10640.104

10650.104

10660.104

10670.104

10680.104

10690.104

10700.104

10710.104

10720.104

10730.104

10740.104

10750.104

10760.104

10770.104

10780.104

10790.105

10800.105

10810.104

10820.104

10830.104

10840.104

10850.104

10860.104

10870.105

10880.105

10890.105

10900.106

10910.106

10920.106

10930.105

10940.105

10950.106

10960.106

10970.106

10980.106

10990.106

11000.106

11010.106

11020.106

11030.106

11040.106

11050.106

11060.106

11070.106

11080.106

11090.106

11100.106

11110.105

11120.105

11130.105

11140.105

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11600.104

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11690.103

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11800.103

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12000.101

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12160.1

12170.1

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12200.1

12210.1

12220.1

12230.1

12240.1

12250.1

12260.1

12270.1

12280.1

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12340.101

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12390.1

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12980.1

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13310.1

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13500.1

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13990.1

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15000.099

Graph

11

#REF!

REF

#REF!

Replications

LOLE - Days per Year

MARS MethodologyBased on a full sequential Monte Carlo simulationChronological system simulation performed by combining:Randomly generated operating histories of units through timeHourly chronological load cyclesTransmission linksYear simulated until convergence criterion is met

MARS Program ModelsGenerating Units and associated outagesLoads for each areaTransfer limits between Zones and Areas

Input DataGenerating unitsSummer and Winter RatingsScheduled OutagesCompared to historicalFull and Partial outagesNow using a five year history based on GADS dataIncludes postponable maintenance outagesAdditional deratings not captured by GADSTemperature DeratingsHydro DeratingsAdditions and Retirements

Input Data continuedLoads for each Zone and AreaFull 8760 hours availableAlign summer and winter peaks of each AreaUsually just model peak hours for each ZoneLoad Uncertainty model

Input Data continuedTransfer LimitsBy InterfaceBy Groups of InterfacesCables modeled with forced outage ratesNo outage modeled on overhead transmissionUse Emergency Transfer CriteriaAllows for post contingency loading to Short Term Emergency (STE) RatingsContracts effect Transfer Limits

Input Data continuedOrder of assistanceEmergency Operating Procedures include:Special Case Resources (SCRs) as capacityEmergency Demand Response Program (with a limited number of calls)Emergency Purchases are now next to last, instead of first.

Emergency Operating Procedures

Step

Procedure

Effect

MW Value

1

Special Case Resources

Load relief

652 MW

2

Emergency Demand Response Prog.

Load relief

225 MW

3

5% manual voltage Reduction

Load relief

81 MW

4

Thirty-minute reserve to zero

Allow operating reserve to decrease to largest unit capacity (10-minute reserve)

600 MW

5

5% remote voltage Reduction

Load relief

487 MW

6

Curtail Company use

Load Relief)

60 MW

7

Voluntary industrial curtailment

Load relief

143 MW

8

General public appeals

Load relief

10 MW

9

Emergency Purchases

Load relief

Varies

10

Ten-minute reserve to zero

Allow 10-minute reserve to decrease to zero

1200 MW

11

Customer disconnections

Load relief

As needed

Developing the Base CaseStart with last years Base CaseUpdate all the input dataUse last years locational requirements for the New York City and Long Island Zones.Adjust load proportional to each Zones peak load until we get an LOLE of 0.1 days per year.Adjust adjacent Areas load so they are less reliable then NYCA.

Sensitivity CasesBase Case17.1%NYCA Isolated23.5%No load forecast uncertainty 13.9%Reduce transfer limits 10%18.5%No constraints between Zone16%Add 240 MW wind17.7%No voltage reductions19.2%No external ICAP - Depends on amount and locationFuel Mix - Not an IRM issue

Locational RequirementsDeveloped for Zones J (NY City) and K (Long Island)Developed by the ISO after IRM is doneUses updated load and generator dataTrying to do jointly (NYSRC AND NYISO)