determinants of rural transient and chronic poverty: evidence from kenya determinants of rural...
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Background Poverty, disease and ignorance were identified as major problems at independence Policy been geared towards addressing these challenges Country’s economic performance has been low High poverty incidences have been witnessed ¾ poor live in the rural areas Pockets of high poverty in some regions with poverty below the national averageTRANSCRIPT
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Determinants of Rural Transient and Determinants of Rural Transient and Chronic Poverty:Chronic Poverty: Evidence from KenyaEvidence from Kenya
Milu Muyanga, Miltone Ayieko and Mary KwambokaTegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development
Egerton University (Kenya)P.O Box 20498, 0200 Nairobi
Tel +254 20 2717818/2717876Email: [email protected]
Presentation at the Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network General Meeting
June 19-22 2006, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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ContentsBackgroundObjectives Methods and dataRationaleResultsPolicy implications
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BackgroundPoverty, disease and ignorance were identified as major problems at independence
Policy been geared towards addressing these challenges
Country’s economic performance has been low
High poverty incidences have been witnessed ¾ poor live in the rural areas Pockets of high poverty in some regions with poverty below the
national average
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Background (2)Non-income indicators worsened High illiteracy rates Life expectancy declined Infant and child mortality worsened Stunted children increased Vaccination levels low Gender disparities have persisted
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Background (3)Government Response National Poverty Eradication Plan (NPEP) Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)
Consultative Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)
Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth Employment Creation (ERSWEC)
United Nations endorsed Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
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Objectives 1. Examine rural poverty dynamics2. Decompose household total poverty into
chronic and transient poverty components 3. Establish correlates to chronic, transient
and total poverty 4. Draw policy lessons
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RationaleHigh poverty incidences have created a desire for empirical studies Most earlier studies of poverty have been static in nature Determinants of chronic poverty are likely to be different from those of transient povertySo are the appropriate respective policy responses
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Methods and Data Poverty dynamics: economic transition matrices
Examine movements across poverty linesPoverty decomposition
Jalan and Ravallion approach Equally Distributed Equivalent (EDE) poverty gaps approach Corrected for statistical biases
Determinants of poverty components correlates Regress total, chronic and transient poverty on a set of a common
household characteristics Use censored quantile regression model
Data: Tegemeo/MSU panel data (1997, 2000 and 2004) Income is welfare measure Deflated Equivalence scales used
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Table 1: 1997-2004 Economic transition matrix 2004
Below food
poverty
Between food and
absolute poverty
Above absolute
poverty
Total
Below food
poverty
18.3% 3.1% 16.5% 38.0%
Between food
and absolute
poverty
4.4% 2.5% 3.4% 10.3%
Above absolute
poverty
17.6% 4.8% 29.3% 51.7%
1997
Total 40.3% 10.4% 49.2% 100%
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Table 2. Poverty decompositionIndex J&R % EDE %
Transient poverty 0.077 44 0.080 19
Chronic poverty 0.096 56 0.336 81
Total poverty 0.173 100 0.416 100
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Poverty decomposition (2)
01
23
4R
atio
= tr
ansi
ent/
chro
nic
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5Po
vert
y co
mpo
nent
s
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Pov erty line-Ksh
Total Pov erty Transient Poverty
Chronic Pov erty Ratio = Transient/Chronic
Figure 1: JR Transient and chronic poverty
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Table 3: Chronic and transient poverty by agro regional zones Group Total Poverty Proportion Transient Chronic
Central highlands 0.052 13.2% 4.5% 2.2%
Coastal lowlands 0.198 30.6% 39.1% 21.3%
Eastern lowlands 0.176 21.1% 24.6% 11.4%
High potential maize zone 0.141 10.3% 6.2% 13.1%
Western highlands 0.223 4.3% 5.1% 5.9%
Western lowlands 0.347 9.2% 10.6% 36.0%
Western transitional 0.157 11.3% 9.9% 10.2%
TOTAL 0.178 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Table 4: Poverty by education level of household head Group Total Poverty Proportion Transient Chronic
None 0.210 22.5% 23.1% 34.5%
Unfinished primary 0.194 42.4% 46.3% 45.6%
Primary 0.179 19.1% 20.4% 16.2%
Unfinished secondary 0.107 8.6% 6.6% 1.7%
Form 4 0.073 5.5% 2.1% 2.6%
Form 6/post secondary training 0.089 1.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Graduate 0.043 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
TOTAL 0.178 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Table 5: Poverty by age of household head
Group Total Poverty Proportion Transient Chronic
under 6 year 0.438 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
6-16 years 0.126 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
17-39 years 0.153 27.0% 25.8% 16.2%
over 40 years 0.188 72.4% 73.2% 84.4%
TOTAL 0.178 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Table 6: Poverty by acreage under crop Group Total Poverty Proportion Transient Chronic
2 and below 0.225 17.9% 20.0% 29.0%
2-4 acres 0.209 33.9% 39.8% 39.6%
4-6 acres 0.162 19.0% 16.4% 19.7%
6-8 acres 0.148 13.0% 12.6% 6.5%
8-10 acres 0.152 5.6% 6.7% 0.0%
over 10 acres 0.081 10.6% 3.9% 6.9%
TOTAL 0.178 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Table 7. Determinants of poverty (Chronic)
Variable Chronic Household size ** Female headed ** Primary education ** Secondary education dummy ** Post secondary education dummy ** Dependency ratio ** Physical assets value ** Cultivated land ** Crop diversification index ** Income diversification index * Credit access dummy ** Fertilize use dummy **
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%
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Table 7. Determinants of poverty (Transient)
Variable Transient Household size * Secondary education dummy * Post secondary education dummy ** Physical assets value * Cultivated land * Crop diversification index * Credit access dummy * Fertilize use dummy *
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%
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Policy implications There has been significant movements in and out of poverty Chronic poverty dominates transient povertyTargeting Large households Headed by females Regions High dependency ratioPolicy variables Education Diversification of income and crops grown Physical assets stock Cultivated land acreage
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Thanks