determinants of 2003 ford taurus auction prices
DESCRIPTION
Determinants of 2003 Ford Taurus Auction Prices. Presented by: Brandon Briggs, Samantha Gardner, Brett Hanifin, Dane Louvier, Ali Irturk, Ryan Nabinger. Introduction. What goes into the auction price of a car?. Data Set. We examined the auction prices of 19,704 2003 Ford Taurus. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Determinants of 2003 Ford Taurus Auction
Prices
Presented by:Brandon Briggs, Samantha Gardner,
Brett Hanifin, Dane Louvier, Ali Irturk, Ryan Nabinger
Introduction What goes into the auction price of a car?
Data Set We examined the auction prices of 19,704
2003 Ford Taurus. All data was from individual auction
records from Aucnet. Mileage Trim package Location Sale type Sale month
Data Set Mileage – Numerical Variable Trim Package – Dummy Variables
SE, LX, SES, SEL Location – Dummy Variables
West, Middle, East Sale Type – Dummy Variables
As is, Reposessions, Dealer, Fleet, Manufacturer
Sale Month – Dummy Variables Jan 06 – Nov 06
Descriptive Statistics Price Mileage trimSE trimSES trimSEL trimLX
Mean 6,194 57,757 0.5903 0.3322 0.0486 0.0289
Standard Error 12 177 0.0035 0.0034 0.0015 0.0012
Median 6200 55135 1 0 0 0
Mode 6000 66270 1 0 0 0
Standard Deviation 1638 24775 0.4918 0.4710 0.2150 0.1675
Sample Variance 2684276 613799696 0.2419 0.2219 0.0462 0.0281
Kurtosis -0.2235 1.2503 -1.8652 -1.4924 15.6363 29.6527
Skewness -0.0787 0.7796 -0.3674 0.7126 4.1994 5.6258
Range 12700 209322 1 1 1 1
Minimum 1000 1185 0 0 0 0
Maximum 13700 210507 1 1 1 1
Sum 121996754 1137575658 11627 6543 957 569
Count 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696
Descriptive Statistics Asis Dealer Fleetlease Manuf Repo West Middle East
Mean 0.0008 0.2503 0.7335 0.0062 0.0091 0.1492 0.4128 0.4381
Standard Error 0.0002 0.0031 0.0032 0.0006 0.0007 0.0025 0.0035 0.0035
Median 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mode 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Standard Deviation 0.0285 0.4332 0.4421 0.0788 0.0952 0.3563 0.4923 0.4962
Sample Variance 0.0008 0.1876 0.1955 0.0062 0.0091 0.1269 0.2424 0.2462
Kurtosis 1226.3124 -0.6701 -0.8836 155.1761 104.4583 1.8800 -1.8746 -1.9378
Skewness 35.0455 1.1532 -1.0566 12.5364 10.3173 1.9697 0.3544 0.2497
Range 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Minimum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Maximum 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sum 16 4929 14448 123 180 2938 8130 8628
Count 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696 19696
Exploratory Data Analysis
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
5000 10000 15000
Residual Actual Fitted
Exploratory Data Analysis
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
-6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000
Series: ResidualsSample 1 19696Observations 19696
Mean -9.76E-09Median 89.48959Maximum 6414.631Minimum -6560.972Std. Dev. 884.2771Skewness -1.144532Kurtosis 7.260360
Jarque-Bera 19195.79Probability 0.000000
Percentage of Total Sales by Month
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Percentage of Total Sales by Location
14.9%
41.3%43.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
West Middle East
Percentage of Total Sales by Sale Type
0.1%
25.0%
73.4%
0.6% 0.9%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Asis Dealer Fleetlease Manuf Repo
Percentage of Total Sales by Trim Type
59.0%
33.2%
4.9%2.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
trimSE trimSES trimSEL trimLX
Regression Analysis
Regression Results The F-statistic was 2393.282
P-value for F-statistic was significant at 5% level
T-Statistics for manufacturers, repossessions, May, July, and August were not significant at the 5% level
Regression Results Sale Type – Lowest to Highest
As is Manufacture (statistically insignificant) Fleet lease Reposessions (statistically insignificant) Dealer
Sale Month Later months decrease price more than earlier
months
Regression Results
Seasonality of Taurus Auction Price
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov
Sale Month
Co
effi
cien
t
Regression Results Mileage decreases auction price Trim type – Lowest to Highest
LX SE SES SEL
Location – Lowest to Highest West East Middle
Price as a Function of Mileage