Climate Change Assessment and Decelerating Food Production

Trends in India

Presentation made at NRCCC, IIT Delhi

5 March, 2010

K. Krishna Kumar Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

(krishna@tropmet.res.in)

Indian Trends: 0.51C/100yr (1901-2007); 0.20C/10yr (1971-2007) Global Trends: 0.82C/100yr (1901-2007); 0.24C/10yr (1971-2007))

Possible Role of Aerosols in Indian Temperature Trends

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240Trend = -0.89

Flux

(W/m

2 )

Year

North of 20NNorth of 20N

South of 20NSouth of 20N

Tmax NovTmax Nov--MayMay

Tmax NovTmax Nov--MayMay

Tmin NovTmin Nov--MayMay

19511951--19901990 19911991--20072007

Radiation Radiation ReceivedReceivedAt the surfaceAt the surface

AerosolsAerosols

Expected Future Changes Under Increased GHG Conditions

IPCC-AR4

IPCC AR4 Simulations• Historical run: 20th Century simulation• Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th

Century simulation):

– “Committed Climate Change”: hold concentrations at year 2000 – SRES A2 to 2100– SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an

additional century (with one realization extended to 2300)– As above but with SRES B1 (~550 ppm)

•

The model simulation data of the above runs are available through IPCC-DDC/ PCMDI, USA and has already exceeded 40TB

Global MeanGlobal Mean Indian RegionIndian RegionIPCCIPCC--SRESSRES

Some Aspects of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Its ENSO Teleconnections as simulated by AR4 Models in 20th Century

Lin et al. 2006, J. ClimateLin et al. 2006, J. ClimateKrishna Kumar et al, 2010

Mean Monsoon Rainfall Monsoon and ENSO Tropical Waves; MJOs

Observed and IPCC-AR4 Ensemble mean Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temperature

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s

RainfallRainfall

TempTemp

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

Other Expected Changes in Monsoon Features

Annual Cycle

Length ofSeason

Monsoon &ENSO

MonsoonVariability

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

Socio-Economic Assumptions

Emissions Scenarios

Concentration CalculationsBiogeochemical/Chemistry Models

Global Climate Change SimulationAOGCMs, Radiative Forcing

Impacts

Impact Models

Inte

ract

ions

and

Fee

dbac

ksLa

nd U

se C

hang

e

Pol

icy

Res

pons

es: A

dapt

atio

n an

d M

itiga

tion

Regional Climate Change Simulation.Regionalization Techniques

Cascade of uncertainty in climate change prediction

NaturalForcings

High-Resolution Regional

Climate Change Scenarios

Dynamical Dynamical Downscaling using Downscaling using Regional Climate Regional Climate

ModelsModels

PRECIS Runs at IITM (Resolution: 50km)

Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived from ERA-15 (1979-93)

LBCs from Hadley Centre Models• Baseline (1961-90) – 3 members• A2 scenario (2071-2100) -3 members• B2 scenario (2071-2100)• 3 Members of QUMP (1961-2100) – A1b

LLBCs from ECHAMBaseline 1961-1990; A2 scenario :1991-2100;

B2 scenario : 1991-2100

PRECIS captures important regional

information on summer monsoon

rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations.

HadCM3HadCM3 PRECISPRECIS

Possible Climate Change impacts are examined in the:

• Extremes in rainfall and temperature

• Onset and advance of Monsoon

• Active/break cycles• Intensity and frequency

of Monsoon Depressions

Projections of Regional Tmax and Daily Rainfall ChangesProjections of Regional Tmax and Daily Rainfall Changes

Highest dailyHighest dailyTmax (C) in Tmax (C) in The Baseline The Baseline PeriodPeriod

Expected Expected changechangein Tmax in in Tmax in FutureFutureunder A2under A2

Expected Expected changechangein Rainfallin RainfallIntensity inIntensity ina rainy daya rainy dayin futurein future

Expected Expected changechangein No. ofin No. ofRainy Days Rainy Days In futureIn futureunder A2under A2

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

Impact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice YImpact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice Yields in Indiaields in India

Tmin (°C)

SRES A2

Baseline

Tmax (°C)

Impact of Daily Tmax on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: HazImpact of Daily Tmax on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: Hazat et al 2005)at et al 2005)

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010 Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

Decelerating Food Production Trends in India

Cristina Milesi1, Arindam Samanta2, Hirofumi Hashimoto1,K. Krishna Kumar, Sangram Ganguly2, Prasad S. Thenkabail3,Ashok N. Srivastava4, Ramakrishna R. Nemani5, R. B. Myneni2

1 California State University Monterey Bay; 2 Boston University3 U. S. Geological Survey; 4 Intelligent Systems Division, NASA Ames Research Center;

5 Biospheric Science Branch, NASA Ames Research Center

Paper appearing in Remote Sensing

2.9%1962-69

0.8%2040s

1.6%1990s

PROJECTED

FAO; International Food Policy Research Institute

Green Revolution

AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH IN WORLD GRAIN YIELDS PER DECADE

20

Over the last decade, 31 out of 41 countries that hold 90% of the water-limited croplands show a decline in annual average growth rate of food grain production.

Food grain: cereals+coarse grains+pulsesData from FAOSTAT

Change (%) in rate of food grain production in 1996-2006 relative

to 1966-1996

Annually Integrated NDVI

NDVI = NIR – RED / NIR+RED

1982-2006 trend in iNDVI calculated from GIMMS G

DECLINE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN THE SEMI-ARID TROPICSDURING THE LAST DECADE

% change in vegetation greenness during 1996-2006 compared to 1982-1992 as calculated from GIMMS-G NDVI

45% of the water-limited tropical croplands show a decline in relative growth of integrated NDVI over

the last decade

NDVI = NIR – RED / NIR+RED

23

Change (%) in rate of food grain production in 1996-2006 relative

to 1966-1996

Change (%) in trend of peak annual

precipitation in 1996- 2006 relative to 1966-

1996

Spatio-temporal deceleration in food grain production

Change in iNDVI growth rate for decade (1996-2005) compared to the decade (1982-1991)

Spatio-temporal deceleration in food grain production

Average rainfall=911mm/yr Average rainfall=161mm/yr

In major food grain - producing states, 50 - 80% of irrigation water comes

from groundwater

Thenkabail et el., 2009

Relative increase (%) in water consumption due to increased rabi (dry season) crop

production

( )) ⎪⎭

⎪⎬⎫

⎪⎩

⎪⎨⎧

⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡−−

−=54.084.0

minmax

max

(0.107.1

NDVINDVI

NDVINDVIKcb m

m

∫=

=

=12

1

m

mmmy PETKcbAET

( ) ( )[ ]EPnyearsAETWC meantrend=Δ

ΔWC

Er-Raki et al., 2007

Relative increase (%) in water consumption due to increased rabi (dry season) crop

production

ΔWC

Central Groundwater Board

29

Warming climate, decline in cropped area and

urbanization are also possibly contributing to decreasing food grain

production

KharifMean annual T =27.1 °C

RabiMean annual T =22.5 °C

Change in nightlights from DMSP/OLS compositeR 2008 G 2000 B 1992

Thank you!