DET Module 1DET Module 1Ensemble Configuration Ensemble Configuration Linda Wharton1, Paula McCaslin1, Tara Jensen2

1 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO

05/14/23

MotivationMotivationNational Mesoscale Probabilistic

Prediction Workshop (September 2009)

Science issues: which ensemble is better?o Few members on high-resolution grido Many members on coarse-resolution grido Single model with perturbations or multiple

modelso Choice of analysis around which

perturbations are made

Ensemble ConfigurationEnsemble ConfigurationDefine the configuration (i.e.

namelists and scripts) to setup and run ensembles for optimal results including best options of: o Grid resolutiono Number of members o Perturbationso Etc.

GoalsGoalsFlexibility

o A system that can emulate ensembles like those run at GSD, NCAR, AFWA, EMC, CAPS, University of WA, FSU, RENCI, etc.

Portability o Multiple computing platforms to

perform testing and evaluationTransfer to operations

o Work toward NEMS compatibilityo First R2O: NCEP operations

Basic InfrastructureBasic InfrastructureBegin with community codes DTC

already supportsDefine requirements:

o Domainso Horizontal and vertical spacingo Output formatso Output fields

Provide scripts to setup and run an ensemble so that testing may begin to address science issues

Configuration Module – Configuration Module – OverviewOverview

Module 1 Configuration Module

Setup Phase

WPSnamelist WRF

namelist

WPP namelist MET

configs

GeneratesStatic Files

Sets Paths

etc…

Member 1

Member 2

Member 3

Member 4

Member N

Writes namelists& configs

Run Phase

Configuration Module - Setup Configuration Module - Setup PhasePhase

Config Filespecifies

module options

Module 1 Configuration Module

Writes Workflow Manager XML

Writes namelists& configs

WPSnamelist WRF

namelist

WPP namelist MET

configs

GeneratesStatic Files

Sets Paths

etc…

Module 2 – IC/BC Perturbations

Module 3 – Physics Perturbations

Option 1: no perturbationsOption 2: ETKFOption 3: Simple Interpolation etc…

Option 1: no perturbationsOption 2: Different physics with each memberOption 3: Stochastic perturbations etc…

Module 4 – Statistical Post-Processing

Module 5 – Products/Display

Module 6 - Verification

Option 1: no post-processingOption 2: Bias correctionOption 3: Bayesian etc…

Option 1: no productsOption 2: mean, spread, min, maxOption 3: Probability Matching etc…

Option 1: no verificationOption 2: Traditional StatisticsOption 3: Spatial Statistics etc…

Configuration Module - Run Configuration Module - Run PhasePhase

Module 1 Configuration ModuleRuns Workflow Manager

Module 4 Statistical Post-Processing

Module 5 Products/Display

Module 6 Verification

Module 2 IC/BC Perturbations

Module 3Physics Perturbations

Examples of Existing Examples of Existing EnsemblesEnsemblesOperational systems

o NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecasto AFWA Joint Ensemble Forecast System

Research systemso ESRL Hydrometeorology Testbed Ensembleo CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast

(HWT)o NCAR Joint Mesoscale Ensembleo University of Washington Ensembleo RENCI Ensemble

Configure Scripts to Configure Scripts to ConsiderConsiderWorkflow ManagerJME configuration scriptsWRF Portal / Domain Wizard GUIsCAPS management scripts (K.

Thomas)NCAR-RTFDDA Ensemble Member

Selection Tool

First Year DeliverablesFirst Year DeliverablesBasic InfrastructureRun ensembleAnswer scientific questions…

QuestionsQuestionsAre there any ensemble systems

that we should also include?If so, who is a contact person?