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Source: *World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), January 2020; **GNTB/WTM, IPK 2020; ***Anholt-IPSOS Nation Brands Index 2019 Report, October 2019; ****AUMA 2020.

1.4 billion international

arrivals*

Destination Germany… ranked first in the NBI overall and for “image“***

… is the top international trade fair destination****

For Europeans in 2019**:

… is the no. 1 cultural travel destination

… is the top city-break destination

… is ranked first for luxury travel

… is the second-most popular destination for Europeans

Pre-coronavirus: 10th record year for inbound tourism to Germany in 2019

Jan-Dec 2019 up 2.6%**

overnight stays**

89.9 million

2020: Drastic decline and losses across the tourism industry

©Unsplash / CDC

UNWTO, May 2020:60 to 80% drop inintl. tourism in 2020

IATA, June 2020:

US$ 434 billion drop in revenue in 2020

WTTC, June 2020:Around 200 million fewer travel jobs

ETC, May 2020:39% fewer international arrivals in Europe in 2020

What next?Global knowledge is key in the market

© gettyimages / NicoElNino

11,7

7,1 7,0

5,6

4,3 4,23,8 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,2 2,9

2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4

50% of inbound tourism from abroad

After coronavirus, the focus is on Europe with a 72% share of inbound tourism to Germany in 2019

Top 16markets approx. 75% of inbound

tourism= 66.8 million

overnight stays

Million overnight stays

89.9million

OS in total

Huge drop in inbound tourism from March onwards after steady start to 2020

*Provisional figures, Federal Statistical Office 2019; accommodation statistics incl. camping.

**GNTB market research; Tourism Economics travel scenario analysis, June 2020.

Original GNTB forecast for

2020**

up 2% to 3%Jan-April 2020/19

down 44.3%*

Tourism EconomicsBaseline scenario for 2020

down 46mn

(51%)

down €17.8bn Revenue

Overnight stays

Arrivals down 54%

Recovery to 2019 OS levels expected at the end of 2023 (TE baseline scenario)

46 49 52 54 56 58 60 61 64 65

3650

58 65

14 1517 18 19 21 21 23 24 25

9

16

23

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201060

201164

201269

201372

201476

201580

201681

201784

201888

201990

202044

202166

202281

202391

Europe Other countries

Overnight stays (OS) in Germany in millionsby source region

Year/total in millions

Tourism Economics baseline scenario Assumptions:Lockdown short haul March to June 2020;medium to long haul later in 2020

Faster recovery in European source markets in 2020, 2021 and 2022

Source: Tourism Economics, travel scenario analysis, June 2020.

Increased market share for inbound tourism to Germany from Europe:

2019 72%2020 81%2021 75%2022 72%

Europedown 45%

Overseas

down 64%

Quick recovery in 5 neighbouring countries for inbound tourism to Germany in 2020 (TE baseline scenario)

Top 5 quick recovery countries

~ 17.3 million OS in 2020

5 slow recovery countries

~ 6.7 million OS in 2020

Recovery of OS in 2020 compared to 2019 in %

Source: Tourism Economics, travel scenario analysis, June 2020.

56,9%

57,4%

58,1%

58,6%

59,8%Denmark

Belgium

Netherlands

Switzerland

Austria51,0%

53,6%

55,7%

56,1%

56,2%France

Sweden

United Kingdom

Spain

Italy 35,7%

35,9%

43,4%

44,4%

49,7%Russia

Czech Republic

Poland

China

United States

5 medium-pace recovery countries

~ 10.2 million OS in 2020

Conclusion: budget switch to the neighbouring countries in 2020

Top 15 source countries

Low inbound tourism expected from Latin American source markets in 2021/22

Rate of change for flight bookings to Germany 2020 compared to 2019

-76,1

-75,1

-71,7

Chile Argentina Brazil

Latin America

Overnight stays in inbound tourism to

Germany from Brazil and the other Latin

American countries has been stagnating at a

level of around 1.4 to 1.5 million per annum

for three years.

Source: flight bookings according to ForwardKeys, OS according to the Federal Statistical Office. Inbound travel according to IPK International.

Low inbound tourism expected in 2021 from Australia and South East Asia

-83,1

-77,3 -76,9 -76,1

-69,6

Thailand Singapore Australia Malaysia Indonesia

Rate of change for flight bookings to Germany 2020 compared to 2019

South East Asia/Australasia

Positive trend for Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia up to 2019.Current flight bookings at critical levels!

Source: flight bookings according to ForwardKeys.Inbound travel according to IPK International.

Journeys to Germany from South East Asia in thousands.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia

2019: ¼ of arrivals are for business.2020: leisure down 53%, business down 62%

24 25 27 28 29 30 31 32

15

2530

34

6 66

7 7 78 8

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Leisure Business

Arrivals in millions by business and leisure(TE baseline scenario)

Business-related arrivals will not

reach 2019 levels even in 2023!!!

Source: Tourism Economics, travel scenario analysis, June 2020.

Business

down 62%

Leisure

down 53%