designing the monitoring systemmonitoring system · designing the monitoring systemmonitoring...

SESSION 3SESSION 3

DESIGNING THEDESIGNING THEMONITORING SYSTEMMONITORING SYSTEMMONITORING SYSTEMMONITORING SYSTEM

Important Issues to ConsiderImportant Issues to Consider

Technical Workshop on “Monitoring Household Coping Technical Workshop on “Monitoring Household Coping Strategies During Crises and Recoveries” Strategies During Crises and Recoveries” g gg g

Somerset Millennium HotelSomerset Millennium HotelMakati CityMakati City

March 21March 21--22, 201122, 2011March 21March 21 22, 201122, 2011

IMPORTANT ISSUES TO CONSIDER

1 S it f Sh k1. Severity of Shocks2. Frequency of Shocks3. Sequence and Combination of Shocks4. Sequence and Combination of Coping

Strategies5. Duration of Coping Strategies6. Attribution

1. SEVERITY OF SHOCKS

Does severity of shock influence the type of coping strategy adopted by households?p g gy p y

D t t t th it fDo we want to capture the severity of shocks?

How can we determine the severity ofHow can we determine the severity of shocks?

HOW CAN WE DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF SHOCKS?

1. Ask respondents themselves to rank severity of shocks they experiencedshocks they experienced

Examples Source Taba. severe vs. moderate

Section 6, Ethiopian Rural Household Survey 1995

D

b. rank in order of importance

Section 8.1, CFSVA, Ghana ESection 10.1, CFSVA & Nutrition LSurvey, Rwanda 2009Section 7.2, CFSVA, Tanzania O

c. most severe, 2nd most severe, 3rd

Module AB03, Malawi Integrated Household Survey 2004

K

most severe


Examples Source Tabd. high, medium, low, no impact-

Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, DFG756 Household

P

Survey 2007-08 e. determine the 4 Chapter III, p.6 National Survey of Fmost important problems according to the respondent

Quality of Life 2000, Guatemala

to the respondentf. identify the 3 mostnotable events for

pp. 13-14, CBMS Rider Questionnaire Philippines

Bnotable events for each category of shocks

Questionnaire, Philippines


2. Determine the impact of shocks in terms of decrease in income, loss of assets/properties and increase in , /p pexpenditures

Examples Source Taba. loss of asset or belongings

p.11, Question 121, Kenya CBMS-GFC Survey 2009 “(due to calamities)

B

Section 6, Ethiopian Rural Household Survey 1995 ( substantial loss of

Dy (

harvest, oxen, livestock, land, labour, house or household assets )

Section 10.4, CFSVA & Nutrition Survey, Rwanda 2009

L


Examples Source Tab

b. whether the disaster was severe enough to cause death or

j i j i f HH b

Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2007-08

J

major injuries of a HH member, cause direct financial loss to the HH or cause HH to relocateHH or cause HH to relocate c. estimate the lost of assets (i.e., in local currency)

Q6, Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam,

Pin local currency) Thailand and Vietnam,

DFG756 Household Survey 2007-08


Examples Source Tabc. estimate the decrease in Section GE05 Indonesia Family Ic. estimate the decrease in income (e.g., monthly income of deceased member, decrease income due to the sickness)

Section GE05, Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2000

Section G1 3 South Africa

I

Mincome due to the sickness) Section G1.3, South Africa National Income Dynamics Survey

Q5 S ti 3 1 Th il d d

M

PQ5, Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, DFG756 Household Survey 2007-08

P

d. estimate the increase in expenses (e g medical and

Section G1.4, South Africa National Income Dynamics Survey

M

Is there a certain threshold for the decrease in income,

expenses (e.g., medical and funeral costs)

National Income Dynamics Survey

assets/properties or expenses in order to determine severity?


3. Determine if households experienced multiple shocks (not necessarily severe in nature) during a specified time period

Example Source Tabb f ha. number of times the HH

experienced the disasterIndonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS)

J

Is there a certain threshold in terms of the

2007-08

Is there a certain threshold in terms of the number of shocks the household experienced in order to determine severity?y


4. Determine the duration of a specific type of crisis

Examples Source Tabd t i if h h ld i La. determine if households

experienced or not a specific type of shock in each month


L

yp Rwanda 2009

b. ask directly the length ofb. ask directly the length of time (e.g., number of months) a shock was experiencedexperienced


5. Determine whether other households in the community are also affectedcommunity are also affected

Examples SourceC t i d ( it l l) l li & i da. Create an index (community-level) equal to the mean (or median) of three variables

Tesliuc & Lindert, 2004

(i) percentage of HHs that lost income or wealth as a result of the shock

(ii) percentage of HHs that reported havingto reduce consumption as their main coping strategycoping strategy

(iii) percentage of HHs that had not compensated for the shock by the time of the interview


Classifications of shocks by severity of impact on income or wealth

Low impact Moderate- to Low-Impact

moderate- to high-impact

high impact

f f ff• forest fires • land or family disputesd ht

•pest infestations

•earthquakes fi

• criminal offenses public protests

•death, abandonment b id t t

• lost remittances • job losses•bankruptcy

i t• droughts•death of a family member

• landslides

fires• storms• floods and hurricanes

by or an accident to the household breadwinner

•bad harvests

•worsening terms of trade

• falls in income or inflation• landslides hurricanes •bad harvests

enterprise closures•mass lay-offs

or inflation

World Bank calculations using the Living Standards Measurement Survey (ENCOVI, 2000) , Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas – Guatemala

S T li d Li d t 2004Source: Tesliuc and Lindert, 2004


Examples Source Tabb Determine S ti 6 Ethi i R l H h ld Db. Determine

how widely spread the


D

pcrisis is affected people beyond woreda =1

affected everyone in the woreda=2affected some in the woreda=3affected some in the woreda=3affected everyone in the PA=4affected some in the PA=5affected a few in the PA=6affected household only

Q7, Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, DFG756 Household Survey 2007-08

P

2. FREQUENCY OF SHOCKSIs there a certain threshold in terms of the number of shocks before households adopt certain types ofof shocks before households adopt certain types of coping strategies?

Do we want to capture the frequency of shocks?

Do we want to capture frequency of the same type of shocks or frequency of shocks, regardless of type?

How can we capture the frequency of shocks?

HOW CAN WE CAPTURE THE FREQUENCY OF SHOCKS?

Examples Source TabExamples Source TabDetermine which months a specific shock occur

Section 10.2, CFSVA & Nutrition Survey

Lspecific shock occur Nutrition Survey,

Rwanda 2009use the following scale: Neveruse the following scale: Never, Seldom, Sometimes, Often, Always

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF SHOCKSDoes sequence of shocks influence the type of coping strategy adopted by households?of coping strategy adopted by households?

Which sequence and combination of shocksWhich sequence and combination of shocks would trigger certain types of coping strategies?strategies?

Do we want to capture the sequence andDo we want to capture the sequence and combination of shocks?

How can we capture the sequence and combination of shocks?combination of shocks?

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF SHOCKS3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF SHOCKSExamples Source Taba. determine when the Section 6 Ethiopian Rural Da. determine when the crises happened during the reference period(sequence and


D

Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, P(sequence and combination) DFG756 Household Survey 2007-08

b. determine the th/ th i i

Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) Imonth/year the crisis happened (sequence and combination)

2000

Section 10.2, CFSVA & Nutrition LSurvey, Rwanda 2009Section G1.4, South Africa National Income Dynamics Survey

MIncome Dynamics Survey

c. Determine if HH was affected by each specific h k i h h h

Module AB01, Malawi Integrated Household Survey 2004

K

shock , going through the entire list (combination)

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF COPING STRATEGIES

Which types of coping strategies are adopted first by households? Is there a distinct sequence in theby households? Is there a distinct sequence in the coping strategies adopted by households?

Does the order in which responses are selected have a significant part in a household’s overall g pstrategy?

D h d h iDoes the order have important consequences on the welfare or even the survival of the household members?members?

Do we want to capture coping strategies for eachDo we want to capture coping strategies for each type of shock or for a combination of shocks?

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF COPING STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES

Examples Source Taba. determine the 3 major Q8-Q9 Section 3 1 Pa. determine the 3 majorcoping activity for each specific shock (SEQUENCE)

Q8 Q9, Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, DFG756 Household Survey

P

2007-08 b. ask if HH adopted each

ifiPart 1, Module 5a, Turkey Q

specific strategy (COMBINATION)

Welfare Monitoring Survey 2009

c. estimate a coping strategy index to take into account the gravity of the mechanism

Rwanda’s CFSVA and Nutrition Survey (Report)

gravity of the mechanism• e.g., assign severity score for each

type of coping strategy “eating less expensive food” = 1eating less expensive food = 1“borrowing or relying on help of friends/ relatives”= 2

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF COPING STRATEGIESAUTHOR/TITLE HIGHLIGHTS

Watts, M. (1983) “Households do not respond arbitrarily to a food crisis , ( )

“Silent, Violence, Food, Famine and Peasantry

p yfor which they are in some sense conceptually prepared; rather they do so serially, with respect to the intensity of what one might call famine signals”y

in Northern Nigeria”y g g

10 Most Commonly Observes Responses (in order)1. Collect famine goods2. Borrow grain from kin3. Sale of labor power (migration)4. Engage in dry season farming (migration)

S l f ll li k5. Sale of small livestock6. Borrow grain or money from merchants/money

lenders7 S l f d ti t7. Sale of domestic assets8. Pledge farmland9. Sale of farmland10 Migrate our permanently10.Migrate our permanently


Cutler, P. (1986) Sequence of Coping Strategies (3 Distinct Stages), ( )

“The Response to Drought of Beja famine

q p g g ( g )

1. Adaptive strategiesa. Sale of livestock (e.g., goats)g j

Refugees in Sudan”( g g )

b. Labor migration c. Self- employment (through pretty commodity

production and trading)

2. Sale of key productive assets a. Sale of tools b S l f i b di i lb. Sale of prime breeding animalsc. Sale of sundry household belongingsd. Sale of land

3. Mass migration (to towns and roadsides in search for charity)


Rahmato, D. (1987) Sequence of Household Responses (4 Stages), ( )

“Famine and Survival Strategies:

q p ( g )1. Stage One

a. Reduction in variety and quality of foods consumedb Collection of wild foodsg

A Case Study from Northeast Ethiopia”

b. Collection of wild foodsc. Reduction of number of meals per dayd. Interhousehold transfers of food and livestocke. Barter exchange with neighbors and relativese a te e c a ge t e g bo s a d e at es

2. Stage Twoa. Temporary migratIon by adult males (in search of

wage employment)g p y )3. Stage Three

a. Sale of cattle and oxenb. Sale of personal effects, e.g., jewelry and hand

weaponsc. Sale of housing for firewood and building material

4. Stage Foura. Migration of the entire household in search of relief


Waal de, A. (1987) Sequence of Household Responses , ( )andWaal de, A. and M. el Amin (1986)

q p1. First Stage of Destitution

a. Gathering of wild foodsb. Selling animals which are surplus to requirements( )

“Famine that Kills”

b. Selling animals which are surplus to requirementsc. Borrowing money or food from relatives d. Other forms of inter-household assistancee. One or more family members working as a day laborer

(Darfur ,Sudan) f. Sale of possessions 2. Second Stage of Destitution

a. Sale of Animals which are required for subsistenceb B i f d f h t t hi hb. Borrowing food or money from merchants at high

interest ratesc. Sale of required possessionsd Working as a day laborer ( in such a wat that itd. Working as a day laborer ( in such a wat that it

interferes with the rending of the household’s own fields

3. Third Stage of Destitution ga. Starvation b. Dependence on charity

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF COPING STRATEGIESA SIMPLE THREE-STAGE SEQUENCE IN COPING STRATEGIES

STAGE 1: Insurance Mechanisms

STAGE 2: Disposal of P d i

STAGE 3: Destitution

• changes in cropping and planting practices

• sale of small stock

Productive Assets• sale of livestock

• Distress migration

• reduction of current consumption levels

• collection of wild foods

• sale of livestock• sale of agricultural

toolscollection of wild foods

• use of inter-household transfers and loans

• increased petty commodity

• sale or mortgaging of land

• credit from • increased petty commodity

production• migration in search of

employment

merchants and moneylenders

• reduction of current employment

• sale of possessions (e.g., jewelry)consumption levels

Source: Corbett, 1988

3. SEQUENCE AND COMBINATION OF COPING STRATEGIES

4. DURATION OF COPING STRATEGIES How long do households adopt a particular type of coping strategy?coping strategy?

Do we also want to capture the length of time beforeDo we also want to capture the length of time before households recover from the crisis?

Do we want to determine whether household coping is successful in terms of minimizing the negativeis successful in terms of minimizing the negative effects or preserving household assets?

4. DURATION OF COPING STRATEGIES

Examples Source Taba. ask if the HH recovered

from the impact/ d

Section 8.1, CFSVA, Ghana E

consequences caused by the difficulty

(not recovered partially


L

(not recovered, partially recovered, completely recovered) Section 7.6, CFSVA, Tanzania O

b k h it S i 3 1 Th il d d Pb. ask how many years it took for the HH to recover

Section 3.1, Thailand and Vietnam, DFG756 Household Survey 2007-08

P

Survey 2007-08 c. ask how long the

member live in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) 2007-08

J

temporary housing (IFLS) 2007 08

5. ATTRIBUTIONHouseholds find it difficult to attribute a coping strategy to a particular shockstrategy to a particular shock

If we are to monitor the coping strategies for a combination of shock, how can we attribute the t t i t ti l h k?strategies to a particular shock?

Example:Example:

• determine if households were affected by a particular type of shock and ask immediately how they coped with the shock

• ask first if the household is adopting a strategy and then, determine the reason for adoption

QUESTIONS

Do we want to capture the severityDo we want to capture the severity, frequency, sequence and combination of shocks? If yes how?of shocks? If yes, how?

hDo we want to capture the sequence, combination and duration of coping

t t i ? If h ?strategies? If yes, how?

How do we address the attribution issue?

Thank You!Thank You!

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