design for reliability in renewable energy...

Acknowledgments:

Design for Reliability in Renewable Energy

System

Frede Blaabjerg

Center of Reliable Power Electronics (CORPE)

Aalborg University, Denmark

www.corpe.et.aau.dk

| 12.01.2017 | SLIDECENTER OF RELIABLE POWER ELECTRONICS, AALBORG UNIVERSITY 2

• Towards Reliable Power Electronics

• Design Tool for Reliability of Power Electronic Systems

• Future Research Opportunities in Reliability of Power Electronics

• Summary

Outline

Design for Reliability in Renewable Energy

System


Aalborg University, Denmark

PBL-Aalborg Model Project-organized and

problem-based

Inaugurated in 1974

22,000+ students

2,500+ faculty

| 12.01.2017 | SLIDECENTER OF RELIABLE POWER ELECTRONICS, AALBORG UNIVERSITY 4 4

Renewable Electricity in Denmark

Proportion of renewable electricity in Denmark (*target value)

Key figures 2011 2015 2025 2035

Wind share of net generation in year 29.4% 51.0% 58%*

Wind share of consumption in year 28.3% 42.0% 60%*

RE share of net generation in year 41.1% 66.9% 82%* 100%*

RE share of net consumption in year 39.5% 55.2%

2015 RE Electricity Gener. in DK

2015 RE-Share

67%

Energinet.dk, Electricity Generation, http://www.energinet.dk/EN/KLIMA-OG-MILJOE/Miljoerapportering/Elproduktion-i-

Danmark/Sider/Elproduktion-i-Danmark.aspx


Very High Coverage of Distributed GenerationEnerginet.dk, Electricity Generation, http://www.energinet.dk/EN/KLIMA-OG-MILJOE/Miljoerapportering/Elproduktion-i-

Danmark/Sider/Elproduktion-i-Danmark.aspx

Energy and Power Challenge in Denmark


Towards Reliable Power Electronics

Motivations, field experiences and challenges

Ongoing paradigm shift in reliability research

Design for reliability concept


Motivation for More Reliable Product Design

Reduce costs by

improving reliability upfront

Source: DfR Solutions, Designing reliability in electronics, CORPE Workshop, 2012.


Field Experience Examples 1/35 Years of Field Experience of a 3.5 MW PV Plant

Data source: Moore, L. M. and H. N. Post, "Five years of operating experience at a large, utility-scale

photovoltaic generating plant," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 16(3): 249-259, 2008

PV Inverter

37%

PV Panel

15%

Junction

Box

12%

System

8%

ACD

21%

DAS

7%

PV Inverter

59%

PV P

anel

6%System 6%

ACD

12%

DAS

14%

Unscheduled maintenance events by subsystem. Unscheduled maintenance costs by subsystem.

(ACD: AC Disconnects, DAS: Data Acquisition Systems)


Field Experience Examples 2/3Failure frequency of different components in PV systems

Data source: PV System Reliability — An owner’s perspective” SunEdison 2012

Failure frequency and energy impact Example of failure rate of PV inverter (string

inverter) in field operation

Data source: Greentech Media Webinar “How to Reduce Risk in Commercial Solar,” July 2015


Field Experience Examples 3/3

350 onshore wind turbines in varying length of time (35,000 downtime events)

Power converter

13%

Pitch System

21.3%

Yaw

Syste

m

11.3

%

Gear b

ox 5

.1%

Others 49.3%

Power converter

18.4%

Pitch System

23.3%

Yaw

Syste

m 7

.3%

Gear b

ox 4

.7%

Others 51%

Contribution of subsystems and assemblies

to the overall failure rate of wind turbines.

Contribution of subsystems and assemblies

to the overall downtime of wind turbines.

Data source: Reliawind, Report on Wind Turbine Reliability Profiles – Field Data Reliability Analysis, 2011.


Availability Impact on Cost-of-Energy (COE)

(source: MAKE Consulting A/S)

CAPEX OPECOE

X

AEP

CAPEX – Capital cost

OPEX – Operation and maintenance cost

AEP – Annual energy production

Lower downtime

Lower OPEX and higher AEP

Higher reliability and better maintenance

Lower COE


The Reliability Challenges in Industry

Customer

expectations

Replacement if

failure

Years of warranty

Low risk of

failure

Request for

maintenance

Peace of mind

Predictive maintenance

Reliability target Affordable returns

(%) Low return rates ppm return rates

R&D approach Reliability test

Avoid catastrophes

Robustness

tests

Improve weakest

components

Design for reliability

Balance with field load

R&D key tools Product operating tests Testing at the

limits

Understanding failure

mechanisms, field load,

root cause, …

Multi-domain simulation

…

Past Present Future

Reliability at CONSTRAINED cost is a challenge


Lifetime Targets in Power Electronics Intensive

Applications

Applications Typical design target of Lifetime

Aircraft 24 years (100,000 hours flight operation)

Automotive 15 years (10,000 operating hours, 300, 000 km)

Industry motor drives 5-20 years (60,000 hours in at full load)

Railway 20-30 years (73,000 hours to 110,000 hours)

Wind turbines 20 years (120,000 hours)

Photovoltaic plants 30 years (90,000 hours to 130,000 hours)


Stress-Strength AnalysisThe essence of reliability engineering is to prevent the creation of failure

Stress or strength

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

ran

ce

Load distribution L Strength distribution S

Time

in ser

vice

Ideal case without

degradation

Ideal case without

degradation

Strength

degradation

with time

Failure

End-of-life

(with certain

failure rate

criterion)Failure

Extreme

load

Nominal

load

Stress analysis; Strength analysis

Stress control; Strength derating

Design at end-of-life; Consider the variations


Focus Points Matrix (FPM) of Stressors Influencing

Reliability

Load Focus points

Climate + Design => StressorActive power

components

Passive

power

components

Control circuitry, IC, PCB, connectors…

AmbientProduct

designStressors Die LASJ

Wire-

bond Cap. Ind.

Solder

JointMLCC IC PCB Connectors

Relative

humidity

-RH(t)

Temperature

-T(t)

-thermal

system

-operation

point

-ON/OFF

-power

P(t)

Temperature

swing ΔTX X X X

Average

Temperature

T

X X X X X X x x x

dT/dt x x x x

Water X X x

Relative

Humidityx x x X x x x X X x

Pollution Tightness Pollution x x

Mains Circuit Voltage x x x X X x x x x

Cosmic Circuit Voltage x

Mounting MechanicalChock

/vibrationx x x x x x

LASJ - Large Area Solder Joint, MLCC - Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor, IC- Integrated Circuit, PCB – Printed Circuit Board, Cap. - Capacitor,

Ind. - Inductor, Level of importance (from high to low): X-X-X-x


The Scope of Reliability of Power ElectronicsA multi-disciplinary research area

Analytical

Physics

Power

Electronics

Reliability

Physics-of-failure

Componentphysics

Paradigm Shift► From components to failure mechanisms

► From constant failure rate to failure level with time

► From reliability prediction to also robustness validation

► From microelectronics to also power electronics


From Components to Failure Mechanisms

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) Approach

PoF could be applied in power electronic systems based on

► the impact of circuit topologies, control schemes, system configurations

and mission profile (therefore, life-cycle stresses of components)

► the materials at potential failure sites in power electronic components

► root-cause failure mechanisms of power electronic components

A formalized and structured approach to root cause failure analysis that

focuses on total learning and not only fixing a current problem.

Deterministic Science

+ Probabilistic Variation Theory

Formally conceptualized in 1962


From Constant Failure Rate to Failure Level with Time

Concerns on MTTF and MTBF

MTTF (or MTBF) = 1/λ

MTTF – Mean Time To Failure (for non-repairable items)

MTBF – Mean Time Between Failure (for repairable items)

Assumptions (Limitations)

Constant failure rate (exponential distribution)

Wear out does not appear before the items fail.

The assumptions are INVALID for most modern components and systems.

Why they were used? At the early stage of electronic components (e.g., 1960s, 1970s), they have relatively

much shorter service life due to the “random” failure during the useful life, MTTF and

MTBF somehow valid. This is no longer valid with the improvement of materials, design

and manufacture process control of most modern components and systems.

These terms might mislead you to wrong conclusions!

And the problem is that many universities and some companies still are using these terms

(λ is the failure rate)

Time in operation

Fa

ilure

ra

te λ

(t) Early failure

Random failure

Wear-out failure

Total

β <1

β =1

β >1


Component-level to System-level Reliability

System reliability

metrics

· Reliability/

unreliability

· Failure rate

· Warranty period

· Bx lifetime

· Lifecycle

· Cost

· …

Reliability of

component A

Weibull (β,η)

Reliability of

component B

Normal (µ ,σ)

Reliability of

component C

Exponential (λ)

Reliability of

component D

Lognormal (µ ,σ)

Mission profile

Converter design

0.9

450 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,00000

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Operation time (hour)

Re

lia

bilit

y

DC/DC converter

BoP

FC stack

FC system

Data source: S. Lee, D. Zhou, and H. Wang, "Reliability assessment of fuel cell system - A framework for

quantitative approach," in Proc. of ECCE 2016, pp. 1-5, 2016.

From Constant Failure Rate to Failure Level with Time


Reliability-Oriented Product Development Process

Design

?Concept

· Mission profile

· Topology and system

architecture

· Risk assessment

(e.g. new technology,

new components)

· Existing database

Validation

· System level

functionality testing

· CALT

· HALT

· MEOST

· Robustness

validation

Production

· Process control

· Process FMEA

· Screening testing

(e.g. HASS)

Release

· Customer usage

· Condition monitoring

· Field data

· Root cause analysis

data

· Corrective action

data

(HALT – Highly Accelerated Limit Testing, CALT – Calibrated Accelerated lifetime testing, MEOST – Multi Environment Overstress Testing,

FMEA – Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, HASS – Highly Accelerated Stress Screening)

(Source: PV Powered Inc.)

How to design for power electronic systems?


Mission Profile

Severe user of a carSource: www.nairaland.com

New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)

The Mission Profile is a representation of all relevant conditions an considered

item will be exposed to in all of its intended applications throughout its entire

life cycle.


Mission Profiles in Grid-Connected Renewable

Energy Systems

PV or Wind Electric grid

Power Electronics enable efficient conversion

and flexible control of electrical energy

0

25

75

90

100

150 500 750 1000 1500

Voltage(%)

Time (ms)

DenmarkSpain

Germany

US

Keep connected

above the curves

Grid codes

Grid voltages

Grid faults

Solar irradiance

Wind speed

TemperatureHighly dynamic stresses on

component level


Design Tool for Reliability of

Power Electronic Systems

Generic flow chart for reliability analysis of power electronic systems

A developed design tool for mission profile based lifetime prediction

Application examples – Wind/PV power converter


Example - Mission Profile Based Analysis Approach

TjPtot (S)

Ptot (D)

TcTh

Ta

ZthS (j-c)

ZthD (j-c)

Zth (c-h)Zth (h-a)

Rth1 Rth2 Rth3 Rth4

Tj Tc

C2 C3 C4

Zth(j-c)

C1

Foster Model

S1 D1S3 D3

S2 D2S4 D4

vpv vinv

DC

-Byp

ass S

witch

es

AC

-Byp

ass S

witch

es

Thermal Model Electrical Model

Evaluation

Lifetime

Estimation

Energy

Production

Thermal Behavior

(Tjmax,ΔTj)

System Model

Output

Electrical Performance

(Ptot,η)

Mission Profiles

Ambient

Temperature

Solar

Irradiance

Losses

Mission profile based multi-disciplinary analysis

approach for single-phase PV transformerless inverters.


Reliability/unreliability vs. time

Thermal loading of IGBT chips

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

ran

ce

Stress

variationStrength

variation

Designed

Stress

Designed

Strength

Failures !

Rain flow counting of thermal cyclesRelation of stress, strength, failures

Translate mission profile to device loading

Critical components in Power electronics

Accelerated test of IGBT

Identification

Stress Analysis

· Mission profile translation

· Multi-physics stress

· Multi-time scales stress

Strength Modeling

Reliability Mapping

· Critical components

· Failure mehanisms

· Major stress & strength

· Component-based

· Accelerated/Limit test

· Degradation model

· Stress organization

· Variation & statistics

· Multi-components system

Reliability Metrics

· Thermal loading

· Voltage/current stress

· Stress margin

Direct

· Bx lifetime

· Robustness

· Reliability/unreliability

Indirect

Key Aspects in Reliability Analysis


Main Disturbances for Thermal

Cycles

► Wide spread time scales !

► Hard to model and predict.

Enviromental

day hour min sec ms µs

Mechanical

Wind

Temp. / Wind

SwitchingControl Grid

Turbine

Electrical

Time scale

Main disturber

Ambient temperature,

Wind speed variation

Wind variation,

MPPT

Control,

Grid

Device

switching

Generator


2L converter

690 Vrms

Filter

2L converter

Grid

1.1 kVDC

IGBT

Wind turbine

Generator

Circuit level (ms - s)

· Electrical variance

· Switching dynamics

· Detail circuit model

· Fast thermal dynamics

System level (s-h)

· Mechanical variance

· Control dynamics

· Ts averaged model

· Slow thermal dynamics

Enviroment level (day-year)

· Enviromental variance

· Steady state

· Analytical model

· No thermal dynamics

Converter

System

Converter environment

Circuit and control

Concept of Multi-Time Scales Converter Modelling

LCL Filter

Grid

Zg

MPPT

Control

Wind

Inverter

Control

+-

+-

dinverter

Mechanics

Control and mechanics


ConverterControlThermal

impedance

Tambient

++

IdcQ*

Electr.

param.Duty

ratioDevice

Temp.pLoss ΔT

Control & Electrical models Loss & Thermal models

feedback feedback

Loss

Vdc*

General Structure for Thermal Analysis of PE System

►Mismatched time constants.

►Thermal modelling instead of monitoring.

►Multi-domains models need to be accurate.

►Multi-disturbances related to mission profiles.

Filter

Grid

Zg

Control

PWM

idc

DC link

vdc iabcvabc

Typical grid-connected converter system

Signal flow for the thermal information of device


A MATLAB Tool for Lifetime Evaluation

► User specified mission profiles inputs

► Wind power, solar PV and motor drive applications

► Outputs: accumulated damage and lifetime (e.g., B10 lifetime)

Key features


Examples by Using the Tools – Mission Profiles

Damage built in 1 year

1 year Wind speed recorded at Thyboron wind farm A typical ClassIA wind speed variation in 60 hours

Damage built in 60 hours


Cooling behavior of heat sink during the shut down of wind turbines

Reduce to ambient temperature.

Maintain to constant temperature.

Examples by Using the Tools – Cooling Strategy


Case Study – 6 kW Single-phase PV System

ipv vdc vg

ig

PV InverterLCL-filter

vdcPWMinv

Grid

Zg

Load*

Cdc

PV Arrays

Linv Lg

Cf

vdc

MPPT

Algorithm

C

Inverter

Control

S1

S2

S3

S4

Mis

sio

n p

rofi

le

PV model MPPT

PV inverter

Mission profile translation

Ploss

Tj

C

Thermal domainElectrical domain

Cycle countingLifetime model

Monte Carlo

simulation

Reliability

block diagram

Fn(t)

Damage calculation

Reliability assessment

Tjm

dTj

Bx

Thermal model

Ambient temp.

Tj

Model

parameters

Component-level System-level

Damage

Fsys(t)

Topology & Reliability Assessment Flowchart

► Single power stage of H-bridge

► Parameter variations by using Monte-

Carlo analysis

► Weibull based lifetime distribution

► Reliability assessment from single power

device to whole power converter


Case Study – 6 kW Single-phase PV System

Lifetime from power device to power converter

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 2500

200

400

600

800

1000

Lif

etim

e d

istr

ibu

tio

n (

%) 10

8

6

4

2

00 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Life time (years)

Weibull distributionn populations = 10,000

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 2500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Life time (years)

Unre

liab

ilit

y (

%)

50

40

30

20

10

0

B10 lifetime

B10 = 53

B10 = 74

B1 = 42

B1 = 30

B1 lifetime

Fn(t): Component-level

Fsys(t): System-level


Future Research Opportunities in

Reliability of Power Electronics


Opportunity - Emerging Switching Devices and Passive

Components

10kV/120A SiC DMOSFET

(Source: Cree)

Latest generation of film capacitor for dc-link application

(Source: www.epcos.com)

Lifetime extension by XT technology

(Source: www.infineon.com)

Infineon XT Packaging technology

(Source: www.infineon.com)


Opportunity - Better Design Enabled by Multi-Physics

Simulation

Electrical model

Thermal model

Mechanical model

Lifetime predictionFailure mechanism

HumidityVibration

Adaptive for converter/system level simulations

Thermal analysis Mechanical analysis Test verification


Opportunity - Active Thermal Control

Voltage

dips

Normal

operationNormal

operation

Tjmax=116℃

Ju

nctio

n te

mp

era

ture

(℃

)

Time (s)

Dnpc

Tout

TinDout

Din

Voltage

dips

Normal

operationNormal

operation

Tjmax=94℃

Ju

nctio

n te

mp

era

ture

(℃

)

Time (s)

Dnpc

Tout

TinDout

Din

With normal modulation With optimized modulation

Dynamic response of junction temperatures

(wind speed 8 m/s, 0.05 p.u. LVRT, dip time 500 ms)

Example: 3L-NPC Grid Inverter during low-voltage-ride-through (LVRT)

TransformerGenerator

3L-NPC

Filter Filter

3L-NPC

Wind turbine

Grid


Opportunity - Junction Temperature Measurement

Example: Temperature measurement by

infrared camera (accuracy: +/- 1ºC or +/- 1%).

► Physically contacting (e.g. thermocouples,

thermal probes)

► Optical method (e.g. infrared camera)

► Electrical method – TSEP (Thermo-

Sensitive Electrical Parameters)

(Source: David L. Blackburn, Temperature

measurements of semiconductor devices - a review)

Saturation voltage of an IGBT chip as a function of

temperature and for different current values.

(Source: Yvan Avenas, Laurent Dupont, and Zoubir Khatir)

Approximation of relative influences of various

stresses


Opportunity - Smart De-Rating of Component and

System

Failure

rate

senstive

region

High failure

rate region

fail

ure

rat

e

Design margin

Failure free

region

Component failure rate as function of design margin.

(Source: Adapted from A. D. S. Carter, Mechanical

reliability)

Example of power curve during temperature de-rating.

(Source: SMA)

Stress or strength

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f o

ccu

ran

ce

Load distribution L Strength distribution S

Time

in ser

vice

Ideal case without

degradation

Ideal case without

degradation

Strength

degradation

with time

Failure

End-of-life

(with certain

failure rate

criterion)Failure

Extreme

load

Nominal

load

Load-strength analysis to explain design margin and failure.


Opportunity - Fault Tolerant Design

Key capabilities of fault tolerant design

■ Redundancy

■ Fault isolation

■ Fault detection and annunciation

■ On-line repair

Example: Fault-tolerant voltage source inverter

by adding extra leg. (Source: K. Kriegel, A. Melkonyan, M. Galek, and J.

Rackles)

Reliability improvement by redundancy design

and fault tolerant design

Some Multi-level inverters and

matrix converters have inherent

fault tolerant capability.

AC motor


Opportunity - On-line Condition Monitoring

Wind power converters under operation

Wind speed

Sensors

Temperature

Sensors

Humidity

Sensors

Voltage

Sensor

s

Current

Sensors

Vibration

Sensors

Wireless Wiredor

Communication

Co

ntr

ol

On-line remaining life

prediction

Condition monitoring

Failure cause and location

analysis

Proactive control scheme

Workstation

A simplified condition monitoring system for wind power converters.

► Real-time operating

characteristics and health

conditions of components

and systems

► Provide information for

proactive control (e.g., load

management, thermal

control) schemes

► Allow proactive

maintenance plan


Summary


R&D at Three Different Levels

System

Converter

Component

Design Tools

■ Towards more physics-of-failure approaches

■ Mission profile based design and optimization

■ Design for reliability and robustness tools

■ Resource-efficient verification testing methods


Design for reliability - summary

The Center of Reliable Power Electronics (CORPE) at Aalborg University,

Denmark, is making effort to this research area.

For more information on the research activities and research outcomes, please

refer to www.corpe.et.aau.dk

Analytical

Physics

Power

Electronics

Reliability

Physics-of-failure

Componentphysics


References

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How2power today, issue Feb. 2015.

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3. H. Wang, M. Liserre, F. Blaabjerg, P. P. Rimmen, J. B. Jacobsen, T. Kvisgaard, J. Landkildehus, "Transitioning to physics-of-failure as

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through”, IEEE Trans. Ind. Appl., vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 909-921, Mar./Apr. 2013.

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on Ind. Appl., vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 922-930, Mar./Apr. 2013.

19. C. Busca, R. Teodorescu, F. Blaabjerg, S. Munk-Nielsen, L. Helle, T. Abeyasekera, and P. Rodriguez, “An overview of the reliability

prediction related aspects of high power IGBTs in wind power applications,” Journal of Microelectronics Reliability, vol. 51, no. 9-11, pp.

1903-1907, 2011.


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2012, pp. 519 - 526, 2012.

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Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 16(3): 249-259, 2008.

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Measurement and Management Symposium, pp. 70-80, 2004.

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