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Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under

Climate Change: Towards Improved Projections Edited by Alexander Gelfan, Daqing Yang, Yeugeniy Gusev & Harald Kunstmann IAHS Publ. 360 (2013) ISBN 978-1-907161-38-4, 184 + viii pp. Price £57.00

The 25 contributions present new research results obtained from both experimental and modelling studies of river basins, snow cover, permafrost, glaciers and ecosystems in cold regions located in different physiographic and climatic conditions, from the Andes to the Siberian tundra. Collectively, the studies reveal physical mechanisms that control cold region hydrological responses to climate change, and consider the sources and magnitude of uncertainties to improve projections of these responses under different geographical conditions and at various time scales. There are three sections to the volume:(1) Mountain hydrological systems under changes;(2) Lowland cold regions: changes in river flow; and(3) Changes in cryo- and eco-systems.

Preface

Cold and mountain regions are the areas of the Earth where some of the earliest and most profound climate-induced changes of hydrological systems are expected, probably because of the dominant contribution of snow and ice to hydrological processes. These regions also represent one of the most severely ungauged basins and suffer from sparse meteorological observations. Our ability to understand changes in hydrological responses to a changing climate needs to improve through enhancement of the modelling tools and observation techniques used for future projections.

During the Joint IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Scientific Assembly “Knowledge for the Future”, 22–26 July 2013, in Göteborg, Sweden, a symposium entitled Cold and mountain Region Hydrological Systems under Climate Change: Towards Improved Projections was held. The symposium was organized by the International Commission for Snow and Ice Hydrology (ICSIH) together with the International Commission on the Coupled Land–Atmosphere System (ICCLAS). The symposium addressed major issues both in modelling cold and mountain regions’ hydrological processes, and in adapting these models to changing climatic conditions. Among the issues related to hydrological modelling, deepening the process understanding and physical foundation of models, adapting models to new data sources, and PUB-related issues were addressed. Among the issues related to model adaptability, problems of model parameterization, calibration and validation taking into account changing climate conditions, and the demonstration of a model’s readiness for use in cold environmental conditions, were examined. Also, this symposium brought together experimental and modelling experts to discuss a broad range of issues related to understanding specific features of the hydrological systems considered that are responsible for their visible sensitivity to climate change.

The importance of the symposium’s topics is reflected in the large number of contributions covering a broad range of problems related to cold region and mountain hydrology. Of these contributions, 25 papers from colleagues in 12 countries around the World were selected for this volume. The papers were grouped into three themes: (1) Mountain hydrological systems under changes; (2) Lowland cold regions: changes in river flow; and (3) Changes in cryo- and eco-systems. They demonstrate new research results obtained from both experimental and modelling studies of river basins, snow cover, permafrost, glaciers, ecosystems, etc. in regions located in very different physiographic and climatic conditions from the Andes to the Siberian tundra. Collectively, these studies provide opportunities to reveal physical mechanisms that control hydrological responses to climate change, to understand sources and magnitude of uncertainties, and, to improve projections of these responses under different geographical conditions and at various time scales. It is hoped that this book will be a step towards this improvement.

As the editors and the conveners of the symposium, we truly appreciate the contributions from our colleagues. We enjoy the interactions and communications with them regarding their

papers and the publication of this book. We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the colleagues

who shared with us the extremely important work on peer review of the papers. Special thanks to Dr. Ol’ga Nasonova for this work. Many thanks to Penny Perrins and Cate Gardner of IAHS Press for their professional help with the processing of the book.

Alexander GelfanWater Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Daqing YangNational Hydrology Research Centre, Environment Canada, Canada

Yeugeniy GusevWater Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Harald KunstmannInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research,

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

Contents

Preface by Alexander Gelfan, Daqing Yang, Yeugeniy Gusev & Harald Kunstmann

1 Mountain hydrological systems under changes

Tackling complexity in modelling mountain hydrology: where do we stand, where do we go? U. Strasser & H. Kunstmann

3

Rainfall–runoff modelling as a tool for constraining the re-analysis of daily precipitation and temperature fields in mountainous regions Nicolas le Moine, Frederic Hendrickx & Joel Gailhard

13

Over 100 years of climatic and hydrologic variability of a Mediterranean and mountainous watershed: the Durance River Anna Kuentz, Thibault Mathevet, Joel Gailhard, Christian Perret & Vazken Andreassian

19

Modelling current and future trends in water availability for agriculture on a semi-arid and mountainous Chilean catchment P. Hublart, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter & H. Jourde

26

Water availability in a mountainous Andean watershed under CMIP5 climate change scenarios Ximena Vargas, Tomás Gómez, Felipe Ahumada, Eduardo Rubio, Mauricio Cartes & Maricel Gibbs

33

Relevance of the uncertainty in evapotranspiration inferences for surface water balance projections in mountainous catchments Freddy Soria

39

Comparison of satellite-based and re-analysed precipitation as input to glacio-hydrological modelling for Beas River basin, northern India Lu Li, Markus Engelhardt, Chong-Yu Xu, Sharad K. Jain & V. P. Singh

45

Effects of distribution level of hydrological models in mountainous catchments Hong Li, Stein Beldring & Chong-Yu Xu

53

Niveograph interpolation to estimate peak accumulation at two mountain sites Steven R. Fassnacht & Glenn G. Patterson

59

The probability of precipitation as snow derived from daily air temperature for high elevation areas of Colorado, United States S. R. Fassnacht, N. B. H. Venable, J. Khishigbayar & M. L. Cherry

65

Differential recession of glaciers in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Garhwal Himalaya, India Suraj Mal & R. B. Singh

71

Hydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle infestation: potential for river channel changes Philip M. Marren, Marwan A. Hassan & Younes Alila

77

2 Lowland cold regions: changes in river flow

Changing surface water systems in the discontinuous permafrost zone: implications for streamflow William L. Quinton & Jennifer L. Baltzer

85

Modelling snowpack formation processes and meltwater runoff using the LSM SWAP under permafrost and highland conditions Yeugeniy M. Gusev & Olga N. Nasonova

93

Investigating the ability of a land surface model to simulate hydrological processes in cold and mountainous regions Olga N. Nasonova, Yeugeniy M. Gusev & Evgeny E. Kovalev

99

Assessing runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Arctic basin: empirical and modelling approaches Yu. G. Motovilov & A. N. Gelfan

105

Calculation and analysis of Yukon River heat flux Daqing Yang, Philip Marsh & Shaoqing Ge

113

Coupled modelling of soil thaw/freeze dynamics and runoff generation in permafrost landscapes, Upper Kolyma, Russia Lyudmila Lebedeva & Olga Semenova

118

Assessment of climate change impact on river discharge in cold and mountainous regions in Japan Yoshinobu Sato, Motohiro Honma, Yasushi Suzuki, Kenji Tanaka & Eiichi Nakakita

125

Exploring the relationship between polar motion and a natural river’s runoff based on Granger causality Sheng Wang & Suxia Liu

131

3 Changes in cryo- and eco-systems

Numerical modelling of snowpack seasonal evolution in various climatic conditions Andrey B. Shmakin & Vasiliy S. Sokratov

141

Meteorological and climatic conditions of dynamics of the Anmangynda icing size V. R. Alekseev, M. V. Bolgov, Ye. L. Boyarintsev & N. G. Serbov

148

Changes in eco-hydrological systems under recent climate change in eastern Siberia Tetsuya Hiyama, Takeshi Ohta, Atsuko Sugimoto, Takeshi Yamazaki, Kazuhiro Oshima, Hitoshi Yonenobu, Kazukiyo Yamamoto, Ayumi Kotani, Hotaek Park, Yuji Kodama, Shigemi Hatta, Alexander N. Fedorov & Trofim C. Maximov

155

Hydrological and geocryological controls on fluvial activity of rivers in cold environments Nikita I. Tananaev

161

Feature analysis and prediction of ice regime in the source region of the Yellow River Du Yi-Heng, Hao Zhen-Chun & Ju Qin

168

Key word index 175

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved ProjectionsProceedings of H02, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013 (IAHS Publ. 360, 2013) 3-12.

Tackling complexity in modelling mountain hydrology: where do we stand, where do we go?

U. STRASSER1 & H. KUNSTMANN2,3

1 Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52f, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria [email protected] Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany3 Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Universitätsstr. 10, 86159 Augsburg, Germany

Abstract The modelling of mountain hydrology is characterized by a series of challenges: continuous accessibility of sites is usually difficult, the accuracy of measurements is limited or even unknown, and their areal representativeness is highly variable in space and time. The spatial variability of many variables that serve as model input undergoes significant scale dependence, and the validation possibilities for model output are limited. Finally, the quantification of uncertainties is usually limited to ensemble simulations across reasonable parameter spaces. Even though sophisticated mountain hydrology modelling schemes have been developed recently, many early concepts have survived: temperature index snowmelt modelling, the neglect of snow sublimation, pragmatic gauge corrections, evapotranspiration estimations, and simple soil- and overland flow representations. Many of these models lack the ability to be transferable in space and time, and in scenario applications they produce artefacts. By means of combining physically-oriented parameterizations and statistical approaches, multi-scale sensitivity studies and integration of remote sensing data in the meantime we can compile improved versions of our models. This is additionally facilitated by an increasing number of new hydrometeorological observatories in mountain areas that are currently built up. As an example of the potential and limitations of modelling mountain hydrology, we present an approach to combine a distributed hydrological model, physically-based snow process parameterizations and an artificial neural network for an enhanced modelling of water fluxes in a high Alpine catchment in the Berchtesgaden Alps (Germany). The hydrology there is highly complex due to the very steep topographic gradients, related spatial variability of all meteorological variables, the very heterogeneous snow cover and the karst nature of the groundwater system. We demonstrate the benefit of single model enhancements, and provide a generally climate change scenario-capable application. With operational observatories, international cooperation and networking, new opportunities arise for joint mountain hydrological process and modelling studies. We conclude with an outlook of upcoming scientific challenges in coupled human–natural water systems.Key words mountain hydrology; modelling; scale dependence; snowmelt; glacier response; operational observatory; process-oriented approach; complexity; society


Rainfall–runoff modelling as a tool for constraining the re-analysis of daily precipitation and temperature fields in mountainous regions

NICOLAS LE MOINE1, FREDERIC HENDRICKX2 & JOEL GAILHARD3

1 Université Pierre et Marie Curie, UMR 7619 Sisyphe, Paris, [email protected] EDF R&D, Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement, Chatou, France3 EDF DTG, Développement Mesures et Méthodes, Grenoble, France

Abstract Hydrological modelling in mountainous regions, where catchment hydrology is heavily influenced by snow (and possibly ice) processes, is a challenging task. The intrinsic complexity of local processes is added to the difficulty of estimating spatially-distributed inputs such as rainfall and temperature, which often exhibit a high spatial heterogeneity that cannot be fully captured by the measurement network. Hence, an interpolation step is often required prior to the hydrological modelling step. In most cases, the reconstruction of meteorological forcings and the calibration of the hydrological model are done sequentially. The outputs of the hydrological model (discharge estimates) may give some insight on the quality of the reconstructed forcings used to feed it, but in this two-step approach it is not possible to easily feed the interpolation scheme back with the discrepancies between observed and simulated discharges. Yet, despite having undergone the rainfall–runoff

(or snow–runoff) transformation, discharge at the outlet of a (sub)catchment is still an interesting integrator (spatial low-pass filter) of the forcing fields and is an ancillary areal information complementing the direct, point-scale data collected at raingauges. In this perspective, choosing the best interpolation scheme partly becomes an inverse hydrological problem. In this study, we present a one-step calibration strategy where the parameters of both the interpolation model (i.e. reconstruction procedure of meteorological forcings) and of the hydrological model (i.e. snow cover evolution, soil moisture accounting, and flow routing schemes) are jointly inferred in a multi-site and multi-variable approach, using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Interpolated fields are daily rainfall and temperature, whereas hydrological prognostic variables consist of discharge and snow water equivalent (SWE) time series at several locations in the 3600 km 2 Upper Durance River catchment (French Alps).Key words rainfall re-analysis; temperature reanalysis; geotatistics; rainfall–runoff modelling; multiobjective calibration; assimilation

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved ProjectionsProceedings of H02, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013 (IAHS Publ. 360, 2013)19-25.

Over 100 years of climatic and hydrologic variability of a Mediterranean and mountainous watershed: the Durance River

ANNA KUENTZ1,2, THIBAULT MATHEVET1, JOEL GAILHARD1, CHRISTIAN PERRET1 & VAZKEN ANDREASSIAN2

1 Electricité de France – DTG, 21 avenue de l’Europe, BP41, 38040 Grenoble cedex 09, [email protected] Hydrosystems and Bioprocesses Research Unit, IRSTEA, 1 rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes CS 10030, 92761 Antony cedex, France

Abstract This paper presents a methodology to build long climatic and hydrologic time-series, based on the downscaling of large-scale climatic data and local observations. This method has been applied on the Durance watershed, on which long historical daily streamflow series have been recently brought to light. These long series allow a validation of the reconstruction method, which show very promising performances on both calibration and validation periods. Finally, 22 1900–2010 streamflow series have been built and used to illustrate the hydrological variability on the Durance watershed over the last century.Key words hydrological variability; historical time-series; streamflow reconstruction; analogues method; Alps


Modelling current and future trends in water availability for agriculture on a semi-arid and mountainous Chilean catchment

P. HUBLART1, D. RUELLAND2, A. DEZETTER3 & H. JOURDE1

1 UM2, 2 CNRS, 3 IRD – UMR HydroSciences Montpellier, Place E. Bataillon, 34395 Montpellier Cedex 5, [email protected]

Abstract This study aims to develop an integrated modelling approach to assess current and future trends in water availability for agricultural purposes on the upper Elqui basin (Chile). A hydrological model including a snow reservoir was combined with an agricultural water demand model to provide an index of the capacity to meet water needs. Particular account has been taken of flow regulation via a storage-dam by modelling the reservoir water balance and its operating rules, and by dividing the basin into two sub-basins located respectively upstream and downstream of the dam. The modelling chain was applied and tested over a long reference period (1979–2008) and then run over 2041–2060 under the constraint of four climate scenarios statistically downscaled from various GCMs. Simulations of the basin outlet discharge show a fair degree of realism over the reference period, despite a reproduction of peak flows which tends to deteriorate in validation. Although the dam model and the agricultural water demand model could be improved in the future, they already provide reliable simulations with regard to observed dam releases on the one hand, and to withdrawal authorizations for irrigation on the other. In spite of significant discrepancies, the climate scenarios all lead to a decrease in the capacity to meet water needs at the height of the irrigation period (from December to March). This can be notably explained by less abundant precipitation (–22 to 48%) according to three of the four climate scenarios and by earlier peak flows for two scenarios due to the impact of higher temperatures (+1.7 to 2.1°C) on the snowmelt regime. This study is a first step towards improving the efficiency of the different models and assessing the propagation of uncertainties through the modelling chain.

mailto:[email protected]

Key words climate change impacts; hydrological modelling; snowmelt regime; agricultural water demand; water reservoir modelling; Elqui River


Water availability in a mountainous Andean watershed under CMIP5 climate change scenarios

XIMENA VARGAS, TOMÁS GÓMEZ, FELIPE AHUMADA, EDUARDO RUBIO, MAURICIO CARTES & MARICEL GIBBSCivil Engineering Department, Universidad de Chile, Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, [email protected]

Abstract Recent updates to climate change scenarios developed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to compare water resources availability in an Andean mountainous snow-dominated watershed, Maipo en San Alfonso, located in the vicinity of Chile’s capital city, Santiago. monthly hydrologic simulations for a base line period and future scenarios are carried out through the software WEAP, considering precipitation and temperature monthly time series predicted for scenarios A2 by GCM MK3.0, as well as for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios by GCM MK3.6. Ensembles given by the GCM MK3.6 are used as inputs to the hydrological model to obtain uncertainty of water availability projections. Future hydrological simulations are carried out from years 2011 to 2070. Results show that mean annual flows tend to decrease by 8%, essentially during the snowmelt period for A2 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Nevertheless for the RCP 2.6 scenario, the tendency to decrease is reversed at the end of the period. Key words water availability; CMIP5 climate change scenarios; uncertainty; mountainous Andean basin


Relevance of the uncertainty in evapotranspiration inferences for surface water balance projections in mountainous catchments

FREDDY SORIAAgua Sustentable, Water Resources Section, Irpavi entre calles 12 y 11D, La Paz, Bolivia

[email protected]

Abstract The paper draws attention to the relevance of the predictive uncertainty in potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculations, towards improved surface water balance calculations in remote high-elevation catchments. The study is in two Andean catchments in Bolivia; the first is in the headers of the Amazon basin and the second is in the headers of the Uyuni basin. The common feature at both sites is the high altitudinal gradient. A semi-distributed water balance model and a Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis are employed in the study. In general, for a given modelling condition, results show that the sensitivity of the water balance to an imperfect measuring network is likely to induce uncertainty ranges as high as 53 L -1 km2. In addition, results have shown that the water balance in Andean mountainous systems under arid conditions is likely to be more sensitive to variations in the PET than their humid counterparts.Key words tropical Andes; sensitivity analysis; surface water balance


Comparison of satellite-based and re-analysed precipitation as input to glacio-hydrological modelling for Beas River basin, northern India

LU LI1,2,3, MARKUS ENGELHARDT1, CHONG-YU XU1,4, SHARAD K. JAIN5 & V. P. SINGH6

1 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, [email protected] Uni Climate, Uni Research, Bergen, Norway3 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway4 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden5 Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India6 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, Texas, USA

Abstract Precipitation is the most critical input for hydrological models. In this paper we evaluate the usefulness and reliability of re-analysed and satellite-based precipitation datasets in driving a large-scale hydrological model for the Beas River basin, a mountainous region in northern India. The spatial and temporal distribution of gridded precipitation in India is compared with raingauge measurements by using three statistical tests. Then a large-scale glacio-hydrological model (GSM-WASMOD), which couples WASMOD-D and a glacier mass-balance module, is applied for the basin. The three precipitation datasets are used to drive the large-scale GSM-WASMOD for simulating the water balance of the Beas River basin for the period 1997–2001. The model results are compared and assessed based on Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and relative volume error (VE). On average, the global gridded satellite-based dataset performs as well as the sparse raingauge data in this region, indicating that the satellite-based dataset can be used as a data source for water resources in basins with little or no ground-based measurements. Key words global datasets; TRMM; WFD; large scale Glacier and Snow Melt – WASMOD model; raingauge


Effects of distribution level of hydrological models in mountainous catchments

HONG LI1, STEIN BELDRING2 & CHONG-YU XU1,3

1 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1047 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, [email protected] Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, PO Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301 Oslo, Norway3 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden

Abstract The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of distribution level of hydrological models in a seasonally snow covered and mountainous area. Five different versions of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, i.e. the lumped model (“LWhole”), semi-distributed model with 10 elevation bands (“SBand”), 1 km grid-based model without routing (“GRZero”), 1 km grid-based model with hillslope routing (“GROne”) and 1 km grid-based model with both hillslope and river routing (“GRTwo”), were compared on two seasonally snow-covered mountainous catchments, the Losna (11 213 km2) and the Norsfoss (18 932 km2) catchments in central southern Norway. According to the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of daily models, the rank of the five models is “GRTwo”, “GROne”, “GRZero”, “SBand” and “LWhole”. The results show that the finer representation of input data and hydrologic process can lead to better model performance in these two catchments and the effects of distribution level of hydrological models also depend on the catchment characteristics. No significant improvement was achieved by the Muskingum-Cunge channel routing method showing that the channel routing is not necessarily required in daily flow simulation at these mountainous catchments.Key words distributed modeling; HBV; mountainous and snow covered area; Norway


Niveograph interpolation to estimate peak accumulation at two mountain sites

STEVEN R. FASSNACHT & GLENN G. PATTERSONESS-Watershed Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1476 [email protected]

Abstract The typical assumption that 1 April SWE represents the peak annual SWE can be improved by fitting a modelled time series plot of SWE derived from daily SWE measurements, to the monthly data typically

available from snow courses. For each year, first of the month SWE values were used to adjust the average daily time series to produce estimates of peak SWE. The average annual from (a) the entire time series and (b) specific years averaged for high, medium and low snow accumulation were implemented. For a station in northern Colorado (Joe Wright, average annual peak SWE of 681 mm) and a station in eastern Arizona (Hannagan Meadow, average annual peak SWE of 334 mm), this method produced good estimates of peak SWE. These estimates were improved when the amount of snow on 1 April or 1 March was considered for Joe Wright and Hannagan Meadow, respectively.Key words snow, peak SWE, niveographs, SNOTEL


The probability of precipitation as snow derived from daily air temperature for high elevation areas of Colorado, United States

S. R. FASSNACHT1, N. B. H. VENABLE2, J. KHISHIGBAYAR3 & M. L. CHERRY1

1 ESS-Watershed Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1476, [email protected] EASC-Watershed Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1482, USA 3 Rangeland Ecosystem Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1472, USA

Abstract Precipitation phase affects the energy balance of the Earth’s surface. Snow formation depends upon atmospheric conditions and is driven mainly by temperature. Dewpoint and air temperature thresholds at or near freezing temperatures have been used to determine precipitation phase in some climates, but may not adequately represent the same phase of precipitation in snowy and semi-arid regions, nor are relative humidity data available at many stations. The objective of this study is to describe relations between average air temperature and probability of snow for nine high elevation (>2000 m) meteorological stations across central Colorado, USA. Fifty years of data were analysed, generating snow probabilities from ratios of the number of days with snow and days with precipitation. These were compared to the average daily temperature during precipitation using 0.2°C intervals. Best-fit linear relations reveal higher probabilities of snowfall in the study areas at temperatures several degrees warmer than previously published curves.Key words snowfall; precipitation; semi-arid climate


Differential recession of glaciers in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Garhwal Himalaya, India

SURAJ MAL1 & R. B. SINGH2

1 Department of Geography, Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi, Delhi-110017, [email protected] 2 Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007, India

Abstract This study compares past toposheets (1955 and 1962) and ASTER satellite images (2004 and 2005) to examine the changing state and causes of varying retreat rates of glaciers in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve of Garhwal Himalaya. The Dunagiri, Milam and Tipra glaciers were surveyed in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The study reveals that the Milam, Tipra and Dunagiri glaciers retreated at the rates of 29.4, 12.5 and 1.3 m year-1, respectively. Such differential retreat rates can be explained by altitudes of their snouts and local physiographic conditions. The change of mean width of the Tipra, Dunagiri and Milam glacier was estimated to be –0.01, –0.005 and 0.29 km. The Tipra, Dunagiri and Milam glaciers have vacated areas of about 0.54, 0.03 and 1.66 km2, respectively. The glaciers show negative mass balance. The net mass change of the Tipra and Dunagiri glaciers was about –470 and –107 × 106 m3 water equivalent (WE), respectively. Key words glacial retreat; mass balance; glacial geometry; Tipra; Milam and Dunagiri glaciers; climate change; Indian Himalaya


Hydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle infestation: potential for river channel changes

PHILIP M. MARREN1, MARWAN A. HASSAN2 & YOUNES ALILA3

1 Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, [email protected] Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2, Canada3 Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada

Abstract Tree kill and salvage logging are profoundly changing the hydrology of mountain pine beetle-infested, snowmelt-dominated catchments. Baker Creek, located in the interior plateau of British Columbia, Canada, is in the heart of the infested region. This study relates observed and modelled changes in hydrology to geomorphic controls to predict the potential for channel change. Modelling using the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation-Model indicates that discharge is highly sensitive to tree kill and salvage logging, with increases of 65–100% possible. It was found that low-gradient reaches typical of the interior plateau are likely to be relatively insensitive to channel change, but will become significant sediment stores as sediment is mobilized elsewhere in the catchment. Higher gradient reaches, which typically occur where interior rivers incise to meet the Fraser River, are more susceptible to change. A geomorphic threshold classification was able to identify change channel thresholds. Salvage harvesting scenarios exceeding 40% cause some reaches to cross stability thresholds, with the potential for significant changes in channel morphology.Key words salvage harvesting; fluvial geomorphology; channel stability; Shields number; British Columbia, Canada


Changing surface water systems in the discontinuous permafrost zone: implications for streamflow

WILLIAM L. QUINTON1 & JENNIFER L. BALTZER2

1 Centre for Cold Regions & Water Science, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada, N2L [email protected] Department of Biology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada, N2L 3C5

Abstract This study was conducted in the wetland-dominated, southern margin of continental permafrost at Scotty Creek, NWT, Canada over the period 2001–2010. In this region permafrost is discontinuous and occurs predominately below tree-covered peat plateaus. The southern margin of continental permafrost is experiencing unprecedented rates of permafrost thaw, yet the effect of this thaw and the resulting ecosystem changes on northern water resources is poorly understood. A distinction between primary and secondary runoff pathways that supply basin drainage networks was identified and incorporated into a new conceptual model that describes the flow and storage of water in the wetland-dominated terrains that dominate the southern margin of permafrost. The objectives of this study were to: (a) estimate primary runoff from the plateaus using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model and relate to basin runoff; and (b) evaluate the impact of changing primary runoff on basin discharge. A strong, positive correlation between primary runoff from plateaus and basin discharge was demonstrated, indicating that with the representation of other flow and storage processes, such as secondary runoff and the routing of water through connected bogs and channel fens, hydrograph simulation for basins with thawing permafrost plateaus is attainable.Key words permafrost thaw; land-cover change; runoff simulation; northern water resources


Modelling snowpack formation processes and meltwater runoff using the LSM SWAP under permafrost and highland conditions

YEUGENIY M. GUSEV & OLGA N. NASONOVAInstitute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkina St. 3, 119333 Moscow, [email protected]

Abstract An ability of a physically-based land surface model SWAP, which describes heat and water exchange processes in a soil–vegetation–(snow cover)–atmosphere system, to reproduce snow formation processes and meltwater runoff at small watersheds under permafrost and highland conditions is investigated. Model simulations were performed for a 10-year period (1969–1978) using observations from the Kolyma Water Balance Station (KWBS), located within the permafrost zone of the Kontaktovyi Creek basin (the upper course of the Kolyma River, Russia). The model was validated against available observations of snow depth; soil thawing/freezing depth; soil and snow surface temperatures; snow evaporation; runoff from different river basins located within the KWBS. The validation results demonstrated the ability of the SWAP model to reproduce heat and water exchange processes under permafrost and highland conditions quite reasonable.Key words land surface model SWAP; snow formation; meltwater runoff; parameter optimization; Russia

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved ProjectionsProceedings of H02, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013 (IAHS Publ. 360, 2013) 99-1-4.

Investigating the ability of a land surface model to simulate hydrological processes in cold and mountainous regions

OLGA N. NASONOVA, YEUGENIY M. GUSEV & EVGENY E. KOVALEVInstitute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkina St. 3, 119333 Moscow, [email protected]

Abstract The aim of the present work is to investigate the ability of a physically-based land surface model (LSM) SWAP, which treats energy and water exchange at the land–atmosphere interface, to simulate snow and runoff formation processes in mountainous and high latitude regions. Two regions characterised by different climatic conditions were selected for this study: the French Alps and pan-Arctic river basins located in Russia. In the first case, the results of snow depth simulations by SWAP were compared with daily snow depth measured during three years at 24 mountainous sites (with the altitudes varying from 910 to 2590 m). In the second case, snow depth and river runoff simulated by SWAP for several northern river basins on a long-term basis were validated against daily observations conducted during 20–30 years. It was concluded that, in general, SWAP can capture evolution of snowpack depth and runoff hydrographs and performs fairly well statistically. Key words land surface model SWAP; snowpack; river runoff; cold regions; parameter optimization


Assessing runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Arctic basin: empirical and modelling approaches

YU. G. MOTOVILOV & A. N. GELFAN Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Gubkina Str., 119333, Moscow [email protected]

Abstract Empirical and modelling approaches to assessing runoff sensitivity to climate change are presented by the example of the large rivers of the Arctic basin. The empirical approach has been carried out for seven large Arctic rivers. It is based on comparing the climatic mean of runoff estimated for the “warm” years of observations with the corresponding mean for the “cold” years. The registered differences in maximum annual runoff estimated for the “warm” and “cold” years have been found statistically insignificant, even under the large (up to 4°C) differences in the observed annual temperature for these years. The differences in minimum annual runoff turned out significant for three of the seven rivers. The modelling approach has been demonstrated on the basis of the ECOMAG modelling system applied for the Lena River (catchment area 2 488 000 km2). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the 10-year period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period 1986–1999. The numerical experiments have been carried out to analyse the sensitivity of the Lena River runoff regime to possible changes in annual precipitation and air temperature. It has been shown that one-degree increase of the annual temperature leads to decreasing simulated annual runoff of about 5–7%, mainly due to increasing evaporation. Ten percent increase of precipitation leads to 15–17% increase in simulated annual runoff. Key words cold region hydrology; climate change; sensitivity


Calculation and analysis of Yukon River heat flux

DAQING YANG1, PHILIP MARSH1 & SHAOQING GE2

1 National Hydrology Research Centre, Environment Canada, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon SK S7N 3H5, [email protected] Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Virginia Tech, 351 ICTAS II, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA

Abstract This paper analyses long-term discharge and water temperature records collected near the basin outlet of the Yukon River. It defines the seasonal cycles of discharge, water temperature (WT), and heat flux (HF) for the basin. The Yukon River has low flows in winter and high discharge in summer, with the peak flood in June (about 16 000 m3/s) due to snowmelt runoff. WT near the basin outlet ranges from 4 to 18°C over the open water season, with the highest peak in mid-summer. The Yukon River transports a large amount of heat to the ocean system, particularly during June and July (about 2380–2500 109 MJ for June and July). These results are useful for climate/ocean model development, and hydrology/climate change research over the northern regions. Key words streamflow; water temperature; heat flux; Yukon River


Coupled modelling of soil thaw/freeze dynamics and runoff generation in permafrost landscapes, Upper Kolyma, Russia

LYUDMILA LEBEDEVA1,4 & OLGA SEMENOVA2,3,4

1 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14 Line VO, 7, 199034 St. Petersburg, [email protected] Gidrotehproekt Ltd., St. Petersburg, Russia3 St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia4 Hydrograph model Research Group, St. Petersburg, Russia

Abstract The distributed process-based runoff formation hydrograph model was applied and tested against soil thaw/freeze depth and runoff data in several permafrost landscapes of the Kolyma Water Balance Station (KWBS). The parameterization describing different permafrost conditions was elaborated. Soil thaw/freeze depths were simulated for three sites comprising rocky talus, mountainous tundra and larch forest landscapes. The runoff model was applied and calibrated for three plot-scale homogenous watersheds related to certain landscapes and one larger Kontaktovy Creek basin enclosing the mentioned land surface types (21.2 km2). The hydrograph model proved its capability to simulate both surface and subsurface processes of runoff formation in different permafrost landscapes.Key words permafrost hydrology; hydrograph model; Kolyma water balance station


Assessment of climate change impact on river discharge in cold and mountainous region in Japan

YOSHINOBU SATO, MOTOHIRO HONMA, YASUSHI SUZUKI, KENJI TANAKA & EIICHI NAKAKITADisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Kyoto, Japansatou.yoshinobu.3e @ kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstract To evaluate the impacts of climate change on river discharge, we applied a hydrological simulation to one of the major river basins in Japan, located in a cold and mountainous region. A super-high-resolution

atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a horizontal resolution of about 20 km, developed by the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA-MRI), was used for the future projection with a simple bias correction. River discharge was estimated using a distributed hydrological model that was calibrated in advance using long-term observation data. The results showed that even if the amount of precipitation does not change greatly in the future, river discharge will change significantly with air temperature rise, owing to increased rainfall, decreased snowfall in winter and decreased snowmelt in early spring. These changes will become more serious in northern cold mountainous regions because the water resources of these regions are currently dominated by the snowmelt.Key words climate change; AGCM; river discharge; snow melt; distributed hydrological model; bias correction

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved ProjectionsProceedings of H02, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013 (IAHS Publ. 360, 2013).

Exploring the relationship between polar motion and a natural river’s runoff based on Granger causality

SHENG WANG1,2 & SUXIA LIU1

1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, Chinaliusx @ igsnrr.ac.cn 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Abstract Assessing the sensitivity of cold and mountain hydrological systems to climate change needs long-term hydrological data. The data in cold and mountain regions are either available on the very short-term, or absolutely unavailable due to high elevation and cold environments, which are hard to access for conducting field observations. In order to explore the possibility of whether we can seek assistance from some already existing long-term data in other disciplines to fill the blank of data of river flow in these regions, the relationship between the runoff of Yarlung Zangbo, a natural river in Tibet, China, and polar motion, which has data records from 1864 up to the present, is explored. First, the action path framework was structured based on geophysical principles. The Granger causality test was conducted at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that on a monthly scale the X component of polar motion influences the runoff at the lag being from the 1st to the 21st month, with the 9th month being an exception. The Y component of polar motion influences the runoff at the lag from the 1st to the 9th month and from the 17th to the 24th month. At seasonal scale, the influence of the X component of polar motion on river runoff can be seen in the 2nd season (i.e. from the 4th month to the 6th month). The influence of the Y component of polar motion on river runoff can be seen at seasonal scale from the 4th to the 6th season (i.e. from the 10th month to 18th month). We cannot see evidence of Granger causality from polar motion to river runoff at annual scales. For the Granger influence of river runoff to polar motion, it is found that at monthly scale the influences are prominent at the lag being from the 3rd to the 25th months for the X component and from the 3rd to the 25th for the Y component. At seasonal scale, these influences can be seen at the lag from the 2nd to the 8th season (corresponding to the 4th to 24th months) for the X component and at the lag from the 1st to the 8th season (corresponding to from the 1st to the 24th month) for the Y component. Again, at the annual scale no evidence of Granger causality can be found from runoff to polar motion. The different behaviours at monthly, seasonal and annual scale suggest that using the monthly data of polar motion to obtain the monthly runoff data is more practicable than to borrow the data from polar motion for river runoff at seasonal and annual scale. Key words runoff; polar motion; Granger causality; Yarlung Zangbo


Numerical modelling of snowpack seasonal evolution in various climatic conditions

ANDREY B. SHMAKIN & VASILIY S. SOKRATOV Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny St., 29, Moscow 119017 [email protected]

Abstract Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of land surface heat and moisture exchange, SPONSOR, are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with strong winds and low temperatures, Dukant in the Tien Shan mountains with abundant relatively warm

snow, and Valdai in western Russia with large interannual variability. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have a great influence on snow depth at territories with high wind speed. At locations with regular warm events during winter, one should pay special attention to their modelling in terms of snow water equivalent and depth.Key words snow modelling; blizzard evaporation; snow melt; interannual variability


Meteorological and climatic conditions of dynamics of the Anmangynda icing size

V. R. ALEKSEEV1, M. V. BOLGOV2, YE. L. BOYARINTSEV3 & N. G. SERBOV3

1 Melnikov Permafrost Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk, Russia2 Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Gubkin St., 3, Moscow, [email protected] 3 Odessa State Ecological University, Lvovskaya St., 15, Odessa, Ukraine

Abstract The Anmangynda icing is located in the central part of the Magadan region, in the headwaters of the Kolyma River. The maximum length of the icing reaches 7 km, its average thickness is about 2 m and the maximum thickness reaches 8 m. Observations of the icing regime were organized in 1962, and continued with short interruptions until 1992. A well-expressed statistically significant trend has been found in long-term dynamics of the maximum size of the icing. It has been shown that the maximum annual volume of the icing decreased by half during the 30-year period as a result of changes of climatic characteristics. Key words icing; northeastern Russia; climate change


Changes in eco-hydrological systems under recent climate change in eastern Siberia

TETSUYA HIYAMA1, TAKESHI OHTA2, ATSUKO SUGIMOTO3, TAKESHI YAMAZAKI4, KAZUHIRO OSHIMA5, HITOSHI YONENOBU6, KAZUKIYO YAMAMOTO2, AYUMI KOTANI2, HOTAEK PARK5, YUJI KODAMA7, SHIGEMI HATTA8, ALEXANDER N. FEDOROV9 & TROFIM C. MAXIMOV10

1 Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, [email protected] Graduate School of Bioagricultural Sciences, Nagoya University, Japan3 Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Japan4 Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan5 Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan6 Department of Health and Living Sciences Education, Naruto University of Education, Japan7 Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Japan8 Department of Civil Engineering, Tomakomai National College of Technology, Japan9 Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia10 Institute for Biological Problems of Cryolithozone, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Abstract Global warming is likely to transform Siberian environments. Recent eco-hydrological evidence indicates that water and carbon cycles have been changing rapidly, with potentially serious effects on the Siberian flora and fauna. We have comprehensively analysed dendrochronological, hydrological, and meteorological data and satellite remote sensing data to track changes in vegetation and the water and carbon cycles in the Lena River Basin, eastern Siberia. The basin is largely covered with larch forest and receives little precipitation. However, from 2005 to 2008 the central part of the basin experienced an extraordinarily high level of precipitation in late summer and winter. This resulted in the degradation of permafrost, forest, and hydrological elements in the region. Dendrochronological data implied that this event was the only incidence of such conditions in the previous 150 years. Based on data collected before and after the event, we developed a permafrost-ecosystem model, including surface soil freeze-thawing processes, to better represent the heat, water,

and carbon fluxes in the region. We focused on the surface soil layer, in which an increased thawing depth is now apparent, surface soil moisture, and net primary production. An analysis of observed and model-simulated data indicated that the annual maximum thawing depth (AMTD) had increased gradually on a decadal scale and deepened abruptly after 2005. Climatological analyses of atmospheric water circulation over the region indicated that the recent increases in precipitation over the central Lena River Basin were partly related to cyclone activity. Consequently, the increased precipitation from late-summer to winter resulted in increases in soil moisture, soil temperature, and AMTD in the region.Key words global warming; Lena River Basin, Siberia; extraordinarily high precipitation; permafrost-ecosystem model; annual maximum thawing depth (AMTD)


Hydrological and geocryological controls on fluvial activity of rivers in cold environments

NIKITA I. TANANAEVP. I. Mel’nikov Permafrost Institute, 36 Merzlotnaya Str., Yakutsk 677010, Russia [email protected]

Abstract Permafrost affects the major interactions between the streamflow and the fluvial forms in a cold environment. Alluvial bedforms are subject to frozen ground formation, and 35–75% of the bed surface is affected, depending on channel pattern. Bed mobility is restricted as permafrost is limiting the movement of most mobile dunes, and ice-cored alluvial bars are persistent channel pattern features. Fluvial thermal erosion is driven by stream power, and is more effective in eroding higher riverbanks. Under climate change conditions, increased sediment supply to the streams is assumed to be the major fluvial feedback, and related channel adjustment processes might be considered.Key words alluvial channels; bank erosion; bed morphology; channel pattern; climate change; permafrost


Feature analysis and prediction of ice regime in the source region of the Yellow River

DU YI-HENG, HAO ZHEN-CHUN & JU QINState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract The Yellow River is a river where serious ice disasters frequently take place in winter. In recent years, the stable frozen period has decreased and the frequency of intermittent freeze periods has increased. After analysing the main factors influencing the ice regime, the prediction factors can be selected. Using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods, this paper sets up two models for the freeze-up and break-up date prediction. In the MLR model, stepwise regression analysis is used to select the highly-related factors into the prediction equation. In the ANN model, a multilayer preceptor in SPSS, a statistical analysis software named Statistical Product and Service Solutions, is used to set up topology between input factors and output date. In conclusion, a comparison is made between the results of the two different methods. The ANN model performs better than the MLR model.Key words Yellow River; ice regime; ice forecasting; MLR; ANN



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