DERBY COUNTDOWN

SATURDAY, MARCH 24–SUNDAY, MARCH 25, 2018

Louisiana Derby Sunland Derby

CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION

BravazoPhoto by Barbara D. Livingston

DERBY COUNTDOWN

1. BRAVAZO (7-3-1-1, 54 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 93Trainer: D. Wayne LukasPedigree: Awesome Again – Tiz o’ Gold (Cee’s Tizzy)Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Lukas is 5 for 19 with last-out winners in graded stakes races on dirt bet to odds of 10-1 or lower, with a $2.50 ROI.Outlook: He’s taken a quantum leap forward as a 3-year-old, winning both of his starts this season and most recently taking the Grade 2 Risen Star over several runners who also show up in this spot. The pace scenario in here may not be quite as favorable to him given the other early speed signed on, but while he needs to negotiate a trip from the rail, it does help that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well.Value: He strikes me as the most likely favorite, and while I may advise taking a shot against him in vertical wagers, he’s probably a must-use in any horizontal plays.

2. NOBLE INDY (3-2-0-1, 10 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 91Trainer: Todd PletcherPedigree: Take Charge Indy – Noble Maz (Storm Boot)Formulator Fact: As reported by Marcus Hersh this week, Pletcher is 0 for 12 over the past five years with 3-year-olds adding blinkers in graded stakes races.Outlook: He was third in the Risen Star, but given the trip, it’s safe to assume he got a lot out of that race. He was boxed in most of the way and may have been intimidated when finally getting some running room, but that was just his third career start, so he may have needed that effort to continue figuring things out. The addition of

blinkers makes sense, and it’s tough to fault the Pletcher/Velazquez tandem.Value: Continued improvement would put him right there, and given that there’s reason to expect further progres-sion, his 7-2 morning-line odds seem fair.

3. MARMELLO (2-0-0-1, 0 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 74Trainer: Mikhail YanakovPedigree: Concord Point – Anychanceatadance (Scat Daddy)Formulator Fact: Yanakov is 0 for 22 in graded stakes races over the past five years.Outlook: He’s shown ample early speed in both of his career starts, but he faltered late on both occasions against much easier competition. He figures to be a major pace factor early (his 115 TimeformUS Early Pace figure is tied for the highest such number in the race), but he’ll likely begin dropping back when the real running starts around the far turn.Value: I can’t endorse him at any price.

4. GIVEMEAMINIT (8-1-2-1, 2 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 85Trainer: Dallas StewartPedigree: Star Guitar – Powerful Nation (Turkoman)Formulator Fact: As of this writing, Dallas Stewart has yet to win a race this meet at Fair Grounds with a horse bet to odds of 7-2 or higher.Outlook: For being eligible to a first-level allowance, this Louisiana-bred has fashioned quite a career. He was a close-up third in last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful and fourth

Louisiana Derby Super Looks BY ANDREW CHAMPAGNE

RACE 1 SUPER LOOKS

ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 5:21 CDT1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. LaDerby (Grade 2). Purse: $1,000,000PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L.

9 My Boy Jack....................Desormeaux K J ....... 122 ........5-21 Bravazo ............................Stevens G L ............... 122 ........7-22 Noble Indy .......................Velazquez J R ........... 122 ........7-27 Snapper Sinclair .............Ortiz J L ..................... 122 ........9-26 Hyndford .........................Bravo J ...................... 122 ........8-15 Retirement Fund .............Bridgmohan S X ....... 122 ......12-110 Dark Templar ..................Geroux F .................... 122 ......12-14 Givemeaminit..................Castellano J J ........... 122 ......20-18 Lone Sailor ......................Graham J .................. 122 ......20-13 Marmello .........................Gilligan J .................... 122 ......50-1Blinkers On: Noble Indy

PICKS:

MARCUS HERSHNoble IndyMy Boy JackBravazo

BYRON KINGNoble IndyBravazoSnapper Sinclair

TRACKMANMy Boy JackBravazoNoble Indy

DERBY COUNTDOWN

in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but most recently was a nonfactor in the Risen Star following a rough trip. Javier Castellano has signed on to ride, and the race shape could work in his favor, but it certainly seems like this one may be best around one turn.Value: The 20-1 morning-line price seems about right, and if a pace meltdown happens, he could come running for a minor piece of it.

5. RETIREMENT FUND (3-2-0-0, 0 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 81Trainer: Steven AsmussenPedigree: Eskendereya – Northern Station (Street Cry)Formulator Fact: Asmussen and jockey Shaun Bridgmo-han are 3 for 15 together in dirt routes this meet at Fair Grounds, with 10 in-the-money finishes and a $2.29 ROI.Outlook: He was an impressive winner of his first two starts, which came at this track going two turns. However, a trip to Arkansas for the Grade 3 Southwest didn’t go well, as he never made the lead and finished a distant seventh. It’s possible he didn’t like the mud, and a return to this surface could help, but he won’t be alone on the front end, and he’d likely need a career-best race from a Beyer stand-point to stand a chance.Value: I think he’ll drift up a bit from his 12-1 morning line, but I don’t see this race as a favorable spot for him given his running style and the likely need to improve.

6. HYNDFORD (3-1-1-0, 0 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 85Trainer: Todd PletcherPedigree: Street Cry – Niji’s Grand Girl (Candy Ride)Formulator Fact: Over the past two years, Pletcher and jockey Joe Bravo are 7 for 15 (47 percent) together in dirt routes, with 12 in-the-money finishes and a $2.90 ROI.Outlook: His win two back against maiden claimers wasn’t

flashy, but he was flattered in a big way when Magnum Moon (who defeated him last time out at Tampa) came back to take the Grade 2 Rebel. Joe Bravo has had an exceptional meet, and the Beyer progression in each of his starts is helpful, but this one strikes me as the lesser of Pletcher’s two runners in here.Value: I think he’s worth using underneath in exotics at his 8-1 morning-line price. If he drifts much lower, though, I can’t be too enthusiastic about him.

7. SNAPPER SINCLAIR (6-2-1-1, 22 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 93Trainer: Steven AsmussenPedigree: City Zip – True Addiction (Yes It’s True)Formulator Fact: Offspring of True Addiction are 2 for 29 in races run at one mile or longer.Outlook: He was the victim of a tough beat last time out in the Risen Star and was third in the Grade 3 Lecomte before that. He found himself on the lead last time out, which is noteworthy because he’d traditionally been one to sit just off the pace. He should be able to sit his preferred trip right behind the early pacesetters here, and while I’m a bit concerned about the added distance (especially given the Formulator Fact above), he certainly fits in this spot, and the race shape works in his favor.Value: Not much separated this one and Bravazo last time out, and if you think this horse can repeat that effort, it’s not a bad idea to back him at a slightly bigger price.

8. LONE SAILOR (7-1-2-1, 0 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 78Trainer: Tom AmossPedigree: Majestic Warrior – Ambitious (Mr. Greeley)Formulator Fact: As of this writing, Amoss has 34 wins this meet at Fair Grounds, but just one has come at 8-1 or higher.

Outlook: This one runs in a big spot just a week after the death of co-owner Tom Benson, so there’s some sentimen-tal appeal here, but he’d almost certainly need to run the race of his life to contend for top honors. He’s finished behind several opponents in the past, and while the race could set up for a deep closer like him, he simply strikes me as too slow to make a significant impact.Value: His 20-1 ML seems a bit low, and while I understand throwing him into the bottom rungs of tri and super plays in the event of a complete pace meltdown, I can’t endorse him for anything more than that.

9. MY BOY JACK (8-2-3-1, 12 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 93Trainer: Keith DesormeauxPedigree: Creative Cause – Gold N Shaft (Mineshaft)Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Keith Desormeaux is 2 for 34 with last-out winners in graded stakes races. Additionally, he’s 0 for his last 13 with such horses.Outlook: Kent Desormeaux gave this one a brilliant ride in the Grade 3 Southwest, where he splashed home clear by more than four lengths. He hadn’t shown much in two dirt starts prior to that event, though, and that race clearly set up for a deep closer. The likely race shape here does bene-fit him, but the runners from the Southwest didn’t flatter him in the Rebel, as Southwest runner-up Combatant could only finish a nonthreatening third behind Magnum Moon and Solomini.Value: At his morning-line price, I think he’s a bet-against. My guess is that he drifts up, but I’d need something in the 9-2 to 5-1 range to think about betting him in anything other than defensive wagers.

Louisiana Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN

10. DARK TEMPLAR (4-2-1-1, 0 Kentucky Derby points)Best Beyer: 80Trainer: Brendan WalshPedigree: Tapit – Hurricane Flag (Storm Cat)Formulator Fact: Over the past year, Walsh is 4 for 20 in graded stakes races at a mile or longer on dirt.Outlook: He was bred to be a good one, and his last-out win in an allowance/optional-claiming event was solid. He made the lead despite a rough break and led all the way around, and it’s tough to fault the connections for taking a shot here. However, the post position is a killer, as is the presence of other early speed. He’s clearly at his best when on the lead, and he’ll likely have to work hard to get there going into the first turn.Value: It’s logical to think this one is sitting on a big race, but I’d need more than his 12-1 morning-line odds to play him. At 20-1, I’d be mildly intrigued.

HOW I’D PLAY IT

I’m going against My Boy Jack, at least on top, based on my belief that the Southwest simply wasn’t as strong as the Risen Star. I’ll lean on the top three finishers from that race and play smaller exactas with others underneath.

$4 Exacta Box: 1,2,7 ($24)$1 Exacta Part-Wheel: 1,2,7 w/1,2,4,6,7,9,10 ($18)

Louisiana Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN RACE 1 CHART

Bravazo 7-2

Noble Indy 7-2

Marmello 50-1

Givemeaminit 20-1

Retirement Fund 12-1

Hyndford 8-1

Snapper Sinclair 9-2

Lone Sailor 20-1

My Boy Jack 5-2

Dark Templar 12-1

Louisiana Derby Beyer ChartCareer-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field

BEYER SPEED FIGURES

AVERAGE WINNING BEYER

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97.26

Track’s morning line odds

FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: 93.80

WINNERS 2013: Revolutionary, 95 2014: Vicar’s in Trouble, 97 2015: International Star, 96 2016: Gun Runner, 90 2017: Girvin, 91

DERBY COUNTDOWN RACE 1 PACE PROJECTION

Louisiana Derby Pace Projector

ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS

The Pace: As with most of the Derby preps so far this year, the Louisiana Derby drew a big field and is projected to have a fast pace. Five of the 10 horses entered have a TimeformUS Running Style of Leader or Speed, and two more are listed as Trackers. Noble Indy (#2) is one of the horses listed as Speed and also is adding blinkers.

Upgrades: My Boy Jack (#9) has the best TimeformUS Late Pace rating in the field and is exiting a win in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park over a muddy track. Givemeaminit (#4) looks overmatched based on TimeformUS Speed Figures but could get into the exotics at a big price if the pace is indeed hot.

Downgrades: The top two from the Grade 2 Risen Star, Bravazo (#1) and Snappy Sinclair (#3), set a slow pace and ran 1-2 around the track. This will be much tougher. Retirement Fund (#5) wilted chasing a fast pace in the Southwest. It could have been the mud, but more likely was pace and deeper competition than previously faced.

USTimeformUS’s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com.

DERBY COUNTDOWN

1. ALL OUT BLITZ (5-1-1-2, $75,240, 2 Derby points)Best Beyer: 91Trainer: Simon CallaghanPedigree: Concord Point–Smart and Single (Smart Strike)Formulator facts: Callaghan is skillful when it comes to sprint-to-route moves. He’s 14 for 81 (17 percent winners) with 33 (41 percent) in the money and a $2 return on invest-ment of $2.33. When you filter further for graded stakes, the numbers improve. He’s 5 for 15 (33 percent) with 9 ITM (60 percent) and a whopping $4.16 ROI.Outlook: Despite the positive stats above, this could be a big ask from a pace point of view as today’s rival Runaway Ghost appears to be poised to pressure All Out Blitz for the lead. However, there’s also a world in which he either shakes loose from that one, or lets him clear and sits off. His last work was a bullet and he has enough pedigree to suggest that nine furlongs may be within his grasp. He’d be easier to embrace on the stretchout if he’d finished a little stronger in previous races. He also fits class wise as not many of these have good graded stakes form.Value: Speed is a weapon, and an all-out blitz for the lead from this one could lead to victory. Call him a contender in the range of 6-1.

2. DARK VADER (5-1-1-1, $55,845, 2 Derby points)Best Beyer: 80Trainer: Peter EurtonPedigree: Tale of Ekati–Dark Obsession (Grand Slam)Formulator facts: Eurton has strong numbers with graded stakes types coming off these types of layoffs (31-60 days). He’s 10 for 54 with winners (19 percent) with 28 ITM (52 percent) and a juicy $3.80 ROI.

Outlook: He was beaten by a loose winner in the Lewis but the TFUS pace figures suggest the pace was fast in there, suggesting he should get an upgrade. The form of that race has been unusual in that eight of the runners from there have run back without winning but five of them signifi-cantly increased their Beyer Figures, making it possible that it was a hidden good race despite poor runs from the two that finished ahead of Dark Vader. Value: To endorse on the win end he’d need to be longer than 15-1 but he’s done enough right to warrant inclusion underneath in your vertical exotics as long as he’s double-digit odds.

3. NEW YORK CENTRAL (4-2-1-1, $104,600, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 83Trainer: Steve AsmussenPedigree: Tapit–Fashion Cat (Forest Wildcat)Formulator facts: Asmussen has positive returns with his 3-year-olds going out third off a layoff in graded stakes. He’s 5 for 28 (13 percent) with 46 percent in the money and a $2.84 ROI. He won the Sunland Derby last year with Hence and back in 2012 with Daddy Nose Best.Outlook: This $750,000 purchase was slightly underwhelm-ing last time as he just held on despite being the benefi-ciary of a strong inside speed bias. Still, looking at his form he’s run well every time, from a tricky trip in his debut, to a powerful win second out, to a wide-trip third out, and at least he did hang on last time. Of the speed types signed on he’s shown the best finish and that could make him very dangerous.Value: Looks a player who could be pressed if around 9-2.

Sunland Derby Super Looks BY PETER THOMAS FORNATALE

RACE 2SUPER LOOKS

ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 5:15 MDT1 1/8 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. SunDrby (Grade 3). Purse: $800,000PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L.

1 All Out Blitz ......................Garcia M .................... 122 ........4-13 New York Central ...........Santana R Jr ........... 122 ........9-24 Hollywood Star...............Albarado R J ............. 122 ........6-17 Prince Lucky ...................Velazquez J R ........... 122 ........6-18 Seven Trumpets .............Contreras L ............... 122 ........6-19 Choo Choo ......................Gutierrez Mario ........ 122 ........8-111 Runaway Ghost ..............Hebert T J .................. 122 ........8-110 Dream Baby Dream .......Juarez A J Jr ............. 122 ......10-15 Peace ...............................Van Dyke D ............... 122 ......12-12 Dark Vader ......................Elliott S ...................... 122 ......15-16 Shane Zain ......................Thompson T J .......... 122 ......15-112 Fortified Effort ................Eikleberry R .............. 122 ......20-1Blinkers On: Dream Baby DreamBlinkers Off: Choo Choo

PICKS:

CHUCK KUEHHASRunaway GhostAll Out BlitzNew York Central

BYRON KINGNew York CentralPeaceHollywood Star

TRACKMANAll Out BlitzNew York CentralHollywood Star

DERBY COUNTDOWN

4. HOLLYWOOD STAR (5-1-2-0, $126,520, 5 Derby points)Best Beyer: 78Trainer: Dale RomansPedigree: Malibu Moon–Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)Formulator facts: Romans’s numbers are good from a value perspective with horses in graded stakes who are second off the layoff. He’s 7 for 55 (13 percent) with 19 ITM (35 percent) and a $2.80 ROI.Outlook: He stayed on in his seasonable debut in the Sam Davis, a race he might have needed. It’s never easy to try to close into a slow pace like the one he saw there in any case. He’d shown some closing ability previous to that and even his Breeders’ Cup run isn’t awful. He was inside early over a track with a dead rail and even made a little middle move. He’s a horse who will benefit from the expected fast pace here and he is probably better than his form suggests.Value: He looks very live and possibly key-able if longer than 4-1.

5. PEACE (5-1-2-0, $79,800, 5 Derby points)Best Beyer: 90Trainer: Richard MandellaPedigree: Violence–Queen’s Triomphe (Cure the Blues)Formulator facts: This qualifies as a wheel-back for a modern Thoroughbred, not a move that Richard Mandella is associated with. In our sample, he’s just 1 for 11 with horses coming back in 14 days or fewer. Of those 14, 6 hit the board. It’s notable that most of them were bet meaning they have underperformed relative to odds.Outlook: The stats above could just be put down to small sample size. When a trainer like Mandella does something out of the ordinary, a horseplayer wouldn’t be blamed to just trust him. McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro were in their own race last time, and there is nothing of their abundant qual-

ity here. It’s notable that he ran a career best that time and further improvement could be expected. The race two back can be excused as he had a bad trip on the wrong part of the track. A bet on Peace is a guess, but it’s not the worst guess you’ll ever make.Value: Feels like he should be around 10-1. Anything longer than that and you could consider pressing or keying. Defi-nitely one to include where it’s not too expensive to do so.

6. SHANE ZAIN (5-1-0-0, $49,260, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 75Trainer: Doug O’NeillPedigree: Medaglia d’Oro–My Gi Gi (E Dubai)Formulator facts: In our sample, Doug O’Neill is just 1 for 9 with runners at Sunland Park, all of which were stakes of one sort or another. It is worth noting that 5 of the 9 hit the board, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky. Irap ran here last year for O’Neill, finishing fourth before going on to win the Blue Grass Stakes.Outlook: Comes out of the same Oaklawn allowance as the Asmussen pair. He had an excuse in there due to a poor start. He subsequently ran okay before running out of gas in the stretch, presumably a result of wasting energy recovering from the poor beginning. The maiden win didn’t do much for me visually – he was slowing down late and got saved by the wire – but those who want to believe will point out that the heat produced three next out winners.Value: I can see a lower-rungs-of-verticals finish if I squint, but on the win end he should be at least 20-1.

7. PRINCE LUCKY (5-3-0-1, $134,690, 4 Derby points)Best Beyer: 83Trainer: Todd PletcherPedigree: Corinthian–Lucky Notion (Great Notion)

Formulator facts: As successful as Todd Pletcher is over-all, one area where he doesn’t excel is with horses going for the first time in graded stakes. He’s just 1 for 19, with just six starts ITM, and a $0.21 ROI in the category. Inter-estingly, he does well with 3-year-old stakes horses who finished out of the money in their previous starts. Formu-lator doesn’t allow us the exact figures but we know that he’s 17 percent winners, 44 percent ITM, and a $1.96 ROI overall with 3-year-olds in stakes, and when you filter for ones that finished ITM last out, the numbers actually dip a bit to 17 percent winners, 43 percent ITM, and a $1.79 ROI.Outlook: He was hung out wide last time in the Lecomte so you might be able to just put a line through that effort. Take that away and you have a colt who is 3 for 4 with a bias excuse for the lone loss and some figures that fit if you project in some Beyer points for the months he’s aged since he earned them. The stat above gives slight pause, but at the end of the day there’s no way to see Pletcher in this one’s corner as anything but a positive.Value: Looks a contender in the range of about 8-1. Brand name connections may make that figure unlikely.

8. SEVEN TRUMPETS (5-2-1-0, $106,400, 4 Derby points)Best Beyer: 85Trainer: Dale RomansPedigree: Morning Line–Angel Trumpet (Cape Canaveral)Formulator facts: With horses making their third starts off the layoff in graded stakes, Romans’s numbers are remarkably similar to the second-off in stakes numbers cited above. He’s 6 for 39 winners (15 percent) with 14 ITM (36 percent) and a $2.32 ROI.Outlook: Didn’t appear to be any obvious excuse for the dull effort in the Southwest last time. Early on he raced on the

Sunland Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN

favorable inside part of the track. Claim to fame came in the New York mud when able to control the slow pace in the Jerome. Even then he wasn’t able to hold off Firenze Fire, a colt who hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory since. The pace situation looks a lot trickier here with at least three of today’s rivals being projected to be ahead of him early. He hasn’t shown the kind of finish it will take to compete against the best of these. Value: He looks like one to oppose in my view. Fair value would have to be up in the double-digits.

9. CHOO CHOO (7-2-0-2, $117,188, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 81Trainer: Jerry HollendorferPedigree: English Channel–Cho Cho San (Deputy Minister)Formulator facts: Overall, Jerry Hollendorfer’s numbers are underwhelming when switching to blinkers off. He’s 12 percent winners and 40 percent ITM with a $0.85 ROI, well below his baseline. His numbers switching horses from synth to dirt are more in line with his excellent over-all numbers.Outlook: How will this one take to dirt routing? It’s an open question, though he does have a sibling who ran a 99 Beyer dirt routing so it’s worth a shot for connections to find out. The distance doesn’t figure to be a problem. The form is hard to evaluate as it was all earned under such different conditions than today, but he has shown some late kick that might serve him well here. Don’t just ignore.Value: Hollendorfer colt has a wild-card look. Not one you want to key, but not one you want to beat your key horse either. Probably deserves to be around 12-1 or 15-1 on what we know from here, and another more likely to get a minor award.

10. DREAM BABY DREAM (7-1-0-4, $71,643, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 83

Trainer: Steve AsmussenPedigree: Into Mischief–Galetoire (Songandaprayer)Formulator facts: With blinkers added, Asmussen is 17 percent winners, 42 percent ITM, with a $1.88 ROI. Filtered for graded stakes, the sample size gets tiny. He’s 0 for 8 with 3 runners ITM. Asmussen teamed up with Alberto Juarez Jr. to win this race last year, and it’s worth noting that Dream Baby Dream and Hence have similar running styles.Outlook: The blinkers look like an interesting fit for this one, who will need to show some tactical speed to navi-gate this potentially tricky outside post. In the past, he’s shown as good a finish as any in here if he can maintain it with the hood on. The run last time is a mixed bag. He had to steady into the first turn but he spent a large part of the race running on the advantageous inside as did his stablemate, the eventual winner New York Central. Last time out he was twice the price of that rival, they should probably be closer in price today.Value: Looks like a contender in the range of 6-1.

11. RUNAWAY GHOST (6-3-2-0, $133,510, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 87Trainer: Todd FincherPedigree: Ghostzapper–Rose’s Desert (Desert God)Formulator facts: Fincher’s numbers are strong locally with 21 percent winners, 54 percent ITM and a $1.66 ROI. This will be his first graded stakes runner in our sample size but in non-graded stakes his numbers stay solid with 16 percent winners, 48 percent ITM and a $1.54 ROI.Outlook: The local runner didn’t draw an easy post. His best chance appears to be to head for the front and not look back though the presence of All Out Blitz could make that tricky. He’s not all that far behind these on figures and his getting beaten at odds-on in the prep – a race where he simply went too fast early – could mean he’s a better than

should be price. Feels a bit like a win or run completely out type. If the competition doesn’t take him seriously and the track is playing to speed Runaway Ghost could run away and hide. Not the likeliest scenario in the race but one worth considering.Value: If he’s double-digit odds, I’d be tempted to play a few combinations with him in the top spot only and just leave him out underneath.

12. FORTIFIED EFFORT (9-4-2-2, $147,398, 0 Derby points)Best Beyer: 70Trainer: Kevin EikleberryPedigree: Ez Effort–Shaky Canyon (Gulch)Formulator facts: Eikleberry has run only three horses in graded stakes with none hitting the board, all at sky-high odds. In non-graded events he’s 16 percent winners with 43 percent ITM and a $1.61 ROI. He’s winless from nine starters at Sunland. Outlook: He’s the most experienced runner in the field and his four wins are also tops in the field. The bad news is that the form on offer all came against competition nota-bly weaker than what he’ll face today. He doesn’t appear to have enough speed to be part of the early mix and he lacks the closing ability to be heard from late. Throw in a wide draw and he’s an unappealing proposition from a betting perspective.Value: A deserving longshot I won’t be using.

HOW I’M PLAYING:Like so many races, this one will really come down to odds. I’d be likely to find a key horse or two based on the prices listed above and play around in exactas with the other contenders, defined as horses listed as 6-1 and lower and horses who represent value on the lines above. If simply making a selection regardless of price, I’d pick Hollywood Star.

Sunland Derby Super Looks CONTINUED

DERBY COUNTDOWN RACE 2 CHART

All Out Blitz 4-1

Dark Vader 15-1

New York Central 9-2

Hollywood Star 6-1

Peace 12-1

Shane Zain 15-1

Prince Lucky 6-1

Seven Trumpets 6-1

Choo Choo 8-1

Dream Baby Dream 10-1

Runaway Ghost 8-1

Fortified Effort 20-1

Sunland Derby Beyer ChartCareer-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field

BEYER SPEED FIGURES

AVERAGE WINNING BEYER

63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95.07

Track’s morning line odds

FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: 99.60

WINNERS 2012: Daddy Nose Best, 100 2013: Govenor Charlie, 95 2014: Chitu, 103 2015: Firing Line, 103 2017: Hence, 97

DERBY COUNTDOWN RACE 2 PACE PROJECTION

Sunland Derby Pace Projector

ANALYSIS BY CRAIG MILKOWSKI, TimeformUS

The Pace: The Sunland Derby drew a full staring gate of 12, and a fast pace is predicted by the TimeformUS Pace Projector. Three horses are labeled with a running style of Leader and two more as Speed by TimeformUS. The projected leader, Runaway Ghost (#11) has led or been within a head at the first call in all six career starts, and he led the local prep for this race with blazing pace figures.

Upgrades: Hollywood Star (#4) and Dream Baby Dream (#10) are tied for the best Late Pace Rating in the field at 104. Hollywood Star was multiple graded stakes placed as a 2-year-old and caught a slow pace in his return in the Sam Davis at Tampa. Dream Baby Dream adds blinkers after not showing much speed at all thus far in his career. Peace (#5) drops in class and has the right running style for this group.

Downgrades: Runaway Ghost draws outside, figures to have plenty company up front, and is probably going farther than he’d like. All Out Blitz (#1) is the lukewarm morning-line favorite. His inside post and early speed running style will probably force him into the hot pace.

USTimeformUS’s Pace Projector uses an algorithm that takes pace figures, running style, and other factors into account to predict the pace at the half-mile call for route races. The Pace Projector is available for all North American races at TimeformUS.com.

DERBY COUNTDOWN

DATE .............RACE .......................................... DISTANCE .................TRACK ................................. WINNER ..............................BEYER .................................................................................................1ST .... 2ND .... 3RD ....4TH

9/16/17...... Iroquois ............................. 1 1/16M .............. Churchill Downs ..........The Tabulator ................ 76 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

9/30/17...... FrontRunner ...................... 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita ..................Bolt d’Oro ................... 100 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

10/7/17...... Champagne ...................... 1M ...................... Belmont .......................Firenze Fire ................... 90 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

10/7/17...... Breeders’ Futurity ............. 1 1/16M .............. Keeneland ...................Free Drop Billy .............. 79 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

11/4/17...... BC Juvenile ....................... 1 1/16M  ............. Del Mar ........................Good Magic ............... 100 .................................................................................. 20 ......8 ...... 4 .......2

11/25/17.... Kentucky Jockey Club ...... 1 1/16M .............. Churchill Downs ..........Enticed ......................... 81 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

12/2/17...... Remsen ............................. 1 1/8M ................ Aqueduct .....................Catholic Boy ................. 91 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

12/9/17 ..... Los Alamitos Futurity ........ 1 1/16M .............. Los Alamitos ................McKinzie ....................... 91 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

12/17/17.... Springboard Mile  ............. 1 mile ................. Remington Park ...........Greyvitos ...................... 88 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

1/6/18........ Sham ................................. 1M ...................... Santa Anita ..................McKinzie ....................... 97 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

1/13/18...... Lecomte ............................ 1M 70 yds .......... Fair Grounds ................Instilled Regard ............ 92 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

1/13/18...... Jerome .............................. 1 mile ................. Aqueduct .....................Firenze Fire ................... 85 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

1/15/18...... Smarty Jones .................... 1M ...................... Oaklawn Park ..............Mourinho ...................... 99 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/3/18 ....... Withers .............................. 1 1/8M ................ Aqueduct .....................Avery Island ................. 87 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/3/18 ....... Holy Bull ............................ 1 1/16M .............. Gulfstream ...................Audible ......................... 99 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/3/18 ....... Robert B. Lewis ................ 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita ..................Lombo .......................... 86 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/10/18 ..... Sam F. Davis ..................... 1 1/16M .............. Tampa Bay Downs .......Flameaway ................... 92 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/17/18...... Risen Star ......................... 1 1/16M .............. Fair Grounds ................Bravazo ........................ 93 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

2/17/18 ..... El Camino Real Derby ...... 1 1/8M ................ Golden Gate ................Paved ........................... 86 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

2/19/18...... Southwest ......................... 1 1/16M .............. Oaklawn Park ..............My Boy Jack ................. 93 .................................................................................. 10 ......4 ...... 2 .......1

Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby

DERBY COUNTDOWN

DATE .............RACE .......................................... DISTANCE .................TRACK ..................................WINNER ..............................BEYER .................................................................................................1ST .... 2ND ....3RD ..4TH

3/3/18 ....... Fountain of Youth .............. 1 1/16M .............. Gulfstream ...................Promises Fulfilled ......... 96 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/10/18 ..... Gotham ............................. 1M ...................... Aqueduct .....................Enticed ......................... 95 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/10/18 ..... Tampa Bay Derby ............. 1 1/16M .............. Tampa Bay Downs .......Quip .............................. 94 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/10/18 ..... San Felipe ......................... 1 1/16M .............. Santa Anita ..................Bolt d’Oro ................... 101 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/17/18...... Rebel ................................ 1 1/16M .............. Oaklawn Park ..............Magnum Moon ............. 97 .................................................................................. 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/17/18...... Jeff Ruby Steaks ............... 1 1/8M ................ Turfway Park ................Blended Citizen ........... 83 .................................................................................. 20 ......8 ...... 4 .......2

3/24/18 ..... Louisiana Derby ................ 1 1/8M ................ Fair Grounds ........................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

3/25/18...... Sunland Derby .................. 1 1/8M ................ Sunland Park ............................................................................................................................................ 50 ....20 .... 10 .......5

3/31/18...... UAE Derby ........................ 1 3/16M .............. Meydan ................................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

3/31/18 ..... Florida Derby .................... 1 1/8M ................ Gulfstream .............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

4/7/18 ....... Wood Memorial ................. 1 1/8M ................ Aqueduct ................................................................................................................................................ 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

4/7/18 ....... Blue Grass ........................ 1 1/8M ................ Keeneland .............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

4/7/18 ....... Santa Anita Derby ............. 1 1/8M ................ Santa Anita ............................................................................................................................................. 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

4/14/18...... Arkansas Derby ................ 1 1/8M ................ Oaklawn Park ......................................................................................................................................... 100 ....40 .... 20 .....10

4/14/18 ..... Lexington .......................... 1 1/16M .............. Keeneland ................................................................................................................................................ 20 ......8 ...... 4 .......2

Kentucky Derby Championship Series

DERBY COUNTDOWN

1............ Bolt d’Oro ...................... Mick Ruis ..................... 64 ....................780,0002............ Enticed .......................... Kiaran McLaughlin ...... 63 ....................360,8803............ Bravazo ......................... D. Wayne Lukas........... 54 ....................349,9134............ Promises Fulfilled .......... Dale Romans ............... 52 ....................256,4805............ Magnum Moon .............. Todd Pletcher .............. 50 ....................540,0006............ Quip .............................. Rodolphe Brisset ......... 50 ....................212,0007............ McKinzie ....................... Bob Baffert .................. 40 ....................320,0008............ Good Magic .................. Chad Brown ................. 34 .................1,238,4009............ Solomini ........................ Bob Baffert .................. 34 ....................616,00010.......... $ - Flameaway .............. Mark Casse ................. 30 ....................472,26011.......... Firenze Fire ................... Jason Servis ................ 29 ....................582,50012.......... Free Drop Billy .............. Dale Romans ............... 24 ....................497,20013.......... Combatant .................... Steve Asmussen .......... 22 ....................300,00014.......... Snapper Sinclair ........... Steven Asmussen ........ 22 ....................301,81015.......... $ Blended Citizen ......... Doug O’Neill ................ 22 ....................129,64416.......... Strike Power .................. Mark Hennig ................ 20 ....................199,56017.......... Old Time Revival ........... Kenneth Decker ........... 20 ......................80,00018.......... Instilled Regard ............ Jerry Hollendorfer ........ 19 ....................196,00019.......... Catholic Boy ................. Jonathan Thomas ........ 14 ....................330,00020.......... Avery Island .................. Kiaran McLaughlin ...... 14 ....................320,00021.......... My Boy Jack ................. Keith Desormeaux ....... 12 ....................402,00022.......... Greyvitos ....................... Adam Kitchingman ...... 10 ....................300,00023.......... Audible ......................... Todd Pletcher .............. 10 ....................208,32024.......... + The Tabulator ............. Larry Rivelli .................. 10 ....................186,75025.......... Kanthaka ....................... Jerry Hollendorfer ........ 10 ....................168,000

26.......... World of Trouble ............ Jason Servis ................ 10 ....................145,00027.......... Lombo ........................... Michael Pender ........... 10 ......................90,34528.......... + f-Paved ...................... Michael McCarthy ....... 10 ......................60,00029.......... Noble Indy .................... Todd Pletcher .............. 10 ......................40,00030.......... Pony Up ........................ Todd Pletcher ................ 8 ......................81,58031.......... Vino Rosso .................... Todd Pletcher ................ 7 ......................37,50032.......... Tiz Mischief ................... Dale Romans ................. 6 ......................80,90033.......... Hollywood Star .............. Dale Romans ................. 5 ......................98,50034.......... Ayacara ........................ Keith Desormeaux ......... 5 ......................71,34535.......... Title Ready .................... Steve Asmussen ............ 5 ......................45,00036.......... Peace ............................ Richard Mandella .......... 5 ......................27,00037.......... Machismo ..................... Anthony Quartarolo ....... 5 ......................19,20038.......... + City Plan .................... Eoin Harty ...................... 4 ......................67,34539.......... $ Arawak ....................... Wesley Ward .................. 4 ......................63,15640.......... Principe Guilherme ....... Steven Asmussen .......... 4 ......................44,00041.......... Seven Trumpets ............ Dale Romans ................. 4 ......................31,66642.......... $ All Out Blitz ................ Simon Callaghan ........... 4 ......................20,00043.......... Coltandmississippi ....... Todd Pletcher ................ 3 ......................31,13744.......... Sporting Chance........... D. Wayne Lukas............. 2 ....................260,00045.......... Givemeaminit ................ Dallas Stewart................ 2 ....................156,00046.......... Lone Sailor .................... Tom Amoss .................... 2 ......................73,34747.......... + Tap Daddy ................. Steven Asmussen .......... 2 ......................67,40048.......... + Kingsville ................... Danny Pish .................... 2 ......................44,00049.......... Marconi ......................... Todd Pletcher ................ 2 ......................36,52050.......... Take the One O One ..... Brian Koriner .................. 2 ......................36,345

Kentucky Derby 2018 Point Standings (through 3/23/18)

NON-RESTRICTEDRANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS

NON-RESTRICTEDRANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS

+ Not Triple Crown nominated, f-filly, $-Late Triple Crown nominee