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C G ~ ~ O N U I F ~ L T ~ OF OUSTRRUR

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DEPRRTmENT OFm C O m m E R C E RND RGRICULTURE

ECONOmlC OUTLOOK FOR

INDUSTRY

ECONOmlC OUTLOOK FOR

THE PIG INDUSTRY

P R E F A C E

This is the fourth of a series of Bulletins being prepared by the Coqmonwealth Bureau of Agricultural Economics dealing with economic aspects of the Australian primary industries.

The Bulletin was originally compiled as an indication o f the economic outlook for the pig industry, to enable an assessment to be made of its scope for War Service Land Settlement. However, it is also intended to be a guide to producers and others concerned. It should be regarded as a preliminary report which will be followed from time to time by periodical reviews covering subsequent developments in the industry.

The report is largely based on investigations carried out by Mr. G. P. Phillips, B.Sc. Agr., Research Officer attached to the Livestock Section, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.

J. G. CRAWFORD,

Director,

Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Canberra, A.C.T., March, 1948.

WOOL PRILCLIGTION SECTlON

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY SUMMARY OF CONTENTS

Page 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. PRODUCTION 8 EXPORTS.

2.1. PRODUCTION TRENDS-AUSTRALIA. 2.1.1. Pig Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Trend from 1860 to 1947. Swine fever outbreaks, Distribution between States. Development of industry as a side-line to dairying and later as an independent industry.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2. Pig Meat Production 3 Slaughtering statistics by States. A peak in slaughter- i n g ~ of 2.6 million head reached in 1941-42. Classi- fication of slaughterings according to carcase types. Total pig meat production.

(a) Production of Pork. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Increased production in pre-war years correlated with increased exports.. Pork production by States.

(b) Production of Bacon and Ham. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Steady level of production in pre-war years. Increased during war years to meet Service demands. Production by States.

2.2. AUSTRALIAN EXPORT TRADE. 2.2.1. Export of Pork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Unril 1929 a net importer of pork. Rapid development of export trade in pre-war years. Increase mainly to U.K. in form of frozen baconer carcases, States of final shipment. Analysis of exports into porker and baconer pork. Comparison of total production, home consumption, exports to the U.K. and exports to other countries.

2.2.2. Destination of Australian Pork Exports . . . . . . . . 6 United Kingdom took 98% of exports in 1938-39. Smaller markets in the East. Table of exports according to destination.

2.2.3. Exports of Bacon and Ham . . . . . . . . . . 6 Low in comparison with pork exports. Marked increase during war years. Total production compared with home consumption, exports to U.K. and exports to other markets. Exports according to State of final shipment.

2.2.4. Destination of Australian Exports of Bacon and Ham . Main trade is with Eastern and Pacific markets. U.K. only a small market for Australia. Table of exports according to destination.

2.3. OVERSEAS ,COUNTRES . . . . . . . . . . . . World pig numbers by countries. Slaughterings of pigs by countries. Exports of pork and bacon and ham from the chief exporting countries. Imports of pork into the chief importing countries. World trade dominated by movement of bacon and ham to the United Kingdom.

2.3.1. United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industry protected and assisted by Government action. Pig population of the U.K. Imports of pork and bacon and ham. Total pig meat supplies available.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2. Argentina Pig population. Slaughterings for domestic use and export. Marked expansion in production and exports during war years. Pat-war decline. Carcases inclined to be over-fat.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3. New Zealand Industry a side-line to dairying. Pig population. Classification of pig population. Slaughtering statistics. Classification of slaughterings.

2.3.4. Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pig population 1908 to 1947. Marked expansion during war years. Slaughteri~gs, pork production, imports and exports. Exports of bacon and ham.

2.3.5. United States of America . . . . . . . Classification of pig p o p u l a t i ~ 1930 to 1947. Increase in breeding stock during war years. Slaughter- ing statistics. Increase in average weight during war years. Production, imports and exports of pork. Post- war decline.

. . . . . 2.3.6. Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pig and milk cow population. Decline during war years. By 1945 milk cows had increased to 98% of pre-war level. Pig recovery delayed by feed shortage.

2.4. PRODUCTION COSTS . . . . . . . Major item, cost of feed. Cost of production, baconers. Cost of production, porkers. Relation between variations in price of feed wheat and cost of bacon. Relation between variations in price of feed wheat and cost of pork. Significant differences in d l cost estimates.

2.5. STANDARDS OF PRODUCTION. 2.5.1. Quality, Grading and Health . . . . . . .

Grading for export but not for local trade. Adoption of three quality grades for export. "Hammond system

Page 7

7

of fat measurement. Baconer and porker competitions conducted by Australian Meat Board. Initiation of pig testing stations.

2.5.2. Comparison with other Exporting Countries. . . . . . (a) New Zealand . . . . . . . . .

Pig-recording. Carcase competitions. Quality grades. Grading for local consumption. Supervising grader for Dominion.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (b) Denmark Scientific methods of breeding, progeny testing and culling. Pig testing stations.

2.5.3. Necessary Improvements in Standards of Production Differentiation between types of baconer carcases for home and U.K. markets. Grading for local trade. Breeding for uniformity. Establishment of further progeny testing stations.

CONSUMPTION. . . . . . 3.1. DOMESTIC STANDARDS AND TRENDS

Annual pig meat consumption. Relation to total meat consumption. Consumption of bacon and ham fluctuated with volume of production. Steady increase in consumption of pork.

. . . . . . 3.2. OVERSEAS STANDARDS AND TRENDS Estimated per capita consumption. Chief consuming countries, Germany. Denmark, Canada, U.S.A., and the Netherlands.

MARKETING AND PRICE. . . . . . . . . . 4.1. AUSTRALIAN MARKET PRICES

Seasanal variations in price. Average metropolitan market prices for each State. Prices at Newmarket and Homebush. Comparison of pig prices and pig population. Negative correlation between pig numbers aad wheat prices,

4.2. PRICE SPREAD FROM PRODUCER T O CONSUMER Average marketing costs in N.S.W. for 194 1. Relation between return to producer and retail price.

4.3. OVERSEAS MARKET PRICES. 4.3.1. United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . .

United Kingdom chief Australian market. Monthly U.K. market prices for pork and bacon. Comparison of prices for New Zealand frozen pork and British pork. Comparison of British and Danish bacon prices.

4.3.2. United Kingdom-Australian Meat Agreement . . ,

Schedule of prices. Terms relating to negotiations for reconsideration of schedule.

4.3.3. United Kingdom-New Zealand Meat Agreement . . Terms of agreement. Schedule of prices.

. . . . . . 4.3.4. United Kingdom--Canada Meat Agreement

Page

A Page . . . . 4.3.5. Market Rites in t b United States of America 41

Prices paid to producers. War-time recovery. Rapid post-war rise.

4.4 MARKETING ORGANISATION AND REGULATIONS 42 Marketing methods. Distribution of laughter-houses and bacon factories.

4.4.1. The Pig-meat Acquisition Scheme . . . . . . . . . . 42 Introduced to stimulate production.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (a) The Pig-meat Plan 43 Constitutional difficulties in introducing scheme. Plan designed to increase production of baconers. Price of 8d. lb. involved Government in a loss. Amendments to the plan. Prohibition on slaughter of light weight pigs. e

(b) Features of the Plan . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 Acquisition by Commonwealth Government. Specified schedule of prices as compensation to licensees. Treat- ment on a weight and grade basis. Duration of plan.

(c) Modifications to the Plan . . . . . . . . . 45 Reduction of minimum weights. Further reduction in minimum weight as a result of feed position.

(d) Long Range Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Emphasis on baconer production. Post-war export demand for baconess anticipated. Lower cost per lb. to produce baconers. Baconer exports well received in U.K. during war years.

4.4.2. Regulation of Supplies of Pig-meats Entering the U.K. Regulation of imports in pre-war years, Allowed for steady increase in imports from Empire countries. De- creased supplies available but increased price.

4.4.3. Overseas Freight Rates . . . . . . . . . . Oversea Shipping Representatives' Association. Aus- tralian Oversea Transport Association. Comparative freight rates to the U.K. a$ outbreak of war. Com- parative advantage of Argentina and New Zealand.

4.4.4. The Australian Meat Board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Terms of appointment and powers. Finance of Board. Reconstitution of Boa~d in 1946

4.4.5. War-time Control . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Meat contracts with the U.K. The Australian Meat Industry Commission. Commonwealth Controller of Meat Supplies and Meat Industry Advisory Committee. Meat rationing.

FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY. 5.1. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9

Grain as basic feed in future. Result of trend towards whole milk utilisation. Trend from wheat to grain

page sorghum as basic feed. Relarivety high future wheat prices. Shift in geographic location of industry anticipated.

5.2. PRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 0 Rapid increase in production in last ten pre-war years. Expansion during the war years. Chief determinants of the future level of pig-meat production in Australia.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3. CONSUMPTION 5 2 An increase of 25 9% over the pre-war average consumption figure for pork expected by 1956. Per capita consumption of bacon and ham not expected to increase. Allowance for an increase of one million in the Australian population by 195 6.

5.4. EXPORT TRADE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1. The United Kingdom Market

Conservative approach based on the assumption that exports to U.K. will not increase above pre-war level. More liberal approach assumes export increase at pre-war rate.

5.4.2. Miscellaneous Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 6 U.K. will continue as main outlet for pork exports. Increase in exports of bacon and ham dependent on improved living standards in Eastern countries.

5.5. LIMITS OF EXPANSION. . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.1 Total Pig-meat as Pork Equivalent 56

Over-all expansion of 13 % on 1946-47 production level seems justified, i.e., 30 million lb.

5.5.2. Pcrk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Conservative estimate of scope for expansion is 54 million lb. or 77% of 1946-47 level. Expansion entirely in porkers for local trade.

5.5.3. Bacon and Ham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 pending clarification of international situation probably no room for expansion. May be necessary to decrease production of the cured product and divert to U.K. export trade.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 CONCLUSIONS 5 9 Scope for expansion mainly dependent on future size of Australian and U.K. markets. In short-run concentration on stability and quality of production necessary. Considered that by 1956 disposal of 3 0 million lb. pork above the 1946-47 levels possible.

INDEX TO STATISTICAL DATA

Table . Contents . Page . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : 1 . Australia Pig Population 63

2 . . . . . Classification of Pig Population . . . . 64 3 . . . . . . . Pigs Slaughtered . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4 . . . . . . . Pig Meat Production . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 5 . . . . . . . Pork Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 6 . . . . . . . Bacon and Ham Production . . . . . . 68 7 . . . . . . . Pork Exports.-- Quantity . . . . . . . . . . . C ? 8 . . . . . . . Pork Exports--S tates of Final Shipment . . 70 9 . . . . . Bacon and Ham Export- uantity . . . 71

10 . . . . . . . Bacon and Ham Exports-States of Finat Shipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

11 . World . . . . Pig Poulation of Chief Countries . . . . . . 73 12 . . . . . . . Pig Slaughterings in Chief Countries . . . . 74 1 3 . . . . . . . Bacon and Ham Exports by Countries . . . . 75 14 . . . . . . . Pork Exports by Countries . . . . . . . 76 15 . . . . . . . Pork Imports by Countries . . . . . . . . . . 77 16 . United Kingdom Pork Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 17 . . . . Bacon and Ham Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 18 . New Zealand . . Pig Slaughterings . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

. . . . . . 19 . . . Classification of Pig Slaughterings 8 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 . . . . . Pork Exports . 80

.. . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . Slaughterings for Export 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . Canada . . . . Pig Population 82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 . U.S.A. . . . . Pig Population 82

24 . . . . . . . Pork and Total Meat Trade . . . . . . . . 83 25 . Australia . . . . Cost of Production-Baconers . . . . . . . . 83

. . . . . . . . 26 . . . . . . . Cost of Production-Porkers 84 27 . . . . . . Pig Meat Consumption-Per Capita . . . . 84 28 . . . . . . . Meat Consumption-Total . . . . . . . . . . 85 29 . . . . . . . Pig Breeding Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 30 . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-N.S.W. . . . . S7 3 1 . . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-Victoria . . . . 87 32 . . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-+ ueensland . 88 33 . . . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-South Australia 88 34 . . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-Western Aus-

. . . . . . tralia . . . . . . . . . 89 35 . . . . . . . Metropolitan Market Prices-Tasmania . . . 89 36 . . . . . . . Prices at Melbourne Auctions . . . . . . . . 90 37 . . . . . . . Wheat Prices-Sydney . . . . . . . . . . 91 38 . United Kingdom Pork Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 39 . . . .. Bacon and Ham Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Figure Contents Page . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . Australia . . . . Pigs Slaughtered 25

. . . . . . . . . . . 2. . . . . Pig Me& Production 26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . Pig Meat Exports 27

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . Park Exports 28 . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . Bacon and Ham Exports 29

6 . . . . . . Pig Meat Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . Baconer Prices 31

8 . . . . . . . Porker Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 9 . . . . . . . Pig Prices and the Pig Population . . . . . . 33

10 . . . . . . . Rg Population and Sydney . Wheat Prices . . 34 1 1 United Kingdom Australian Pork Prices 35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . U.S.A. . . . . Price Paid By Wholesale Slaughterers . . . . 36

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE P I G INDUSTRY

1 . INTRODUCTION.

The main purpose of this investigation is to assess the probable future demand for pig-meats in both the local and overseas markets and t o determine what expansion in production could be safely encouraged. The year 1956 has been ons side red as the base year and estimated disposal$ calculated accordingly.

Ta achieve this purpose, it has been necessary to deal at some length with pmdumion and consumption trends in the chief pig-meat exparring and importing countries of the world, in addition to Australia. Information on many phases of overseas production and con$umption is incomplete, and in a number of case$ it has been impasible to secure data for the immediate preqwar years.

A further difficulty met with in compiling this report was the absence of a satisfactory differentiation between "baconer" and "porker" carcases, both in tht statistics and the literature dealing with the industry. In many statistical tables, "porker" careages and uncured "baconer" carcases are considered collectively as pork and are compared with cured "baroner" carcases, i.e., bacon and ham. In this report, the term "pork" will again be used to indicate total uncured pig-meats, but will be subdivided, on a weight basis, into "bacondr" pork and "porker" pork wherever possible. "Bacon and ham" will then refer to cured "baeoner" carcases only.

The procedn* adapted in the preparation of the report can be divided into two phascs, Pir$t, a full statistical analysis of all available data was made, and certain interim C U ~ C ~ U J ~ O ~ S reached. Secondly, the interim ctm- cIusions were discussed with reptesentatives of the indltstrp, and certain controversial assumptions considered at some length.

It is stresaed that the report attempts to give a picture of the pig industrf fot Aucrtealia es a whole, and consequently certain factors irpplping to speclie l aca l i t i~ ot a partlcttlar State may not be included. In addition, a number of problems have been stated bat not investigated. The inoesd- 9 t h of ptoblems will be undertaken in later teports.

At the euwt it should & noted that, at the time this report was compiled, a FQlad Mieion from the United Kingdom was visiting Asaralid wich thb object @f h d i d g way@ nad means of increasing AttstralWs avtr-a$l prodmtion Lsi fstod, sad thw Obt fnctidn @ailable for etpart t 6 rhe United Kingdom. The Uisaian hpd dlttady indicated Its interest in fnereaecd sapplies af pk-m~st8 fro% Alidtmfid, and as r result of this idterest somt

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY r l modification of the present view of the economic outlook for the industry

may be justified at a later date. However, until such time as concrete suggestions are forthcoming, the outcome of the visit must be regarded as a further unknown which could materially alter the industry's future welfare.

Unless otherwise stated, the statistics quoted are official Commonwealth statistics as published by the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics.

2. PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS.

2. 1, PRODUCTION TRENDS-AUSTRALIA.

2. 1. 1. Pig Population.

Although the number of pigs in Australia in 1860 was only 35 1,100, this figure had increased to 950,300 by the beginning of the present century. In 1917, the total was 1,169,400, but had fallen to 695,968 by 1919. Numbers again increased to 985,900 in 1922, and from that year they remained at a fairly steady level until 1938. Since 1928 more than 1,000,000 pigs have been recorded annually, and in 1941 a peak of 1,797,300 was reached. The increase in pig numbers has received' two marked set-backs in the present century, as a result of outbreaks of swine fever. The first occurred in the 'twenties and led to the establishment of compensation funds on a State basis. In the early years of the recent war, the second outbreak occurred in Western Australia and New South Wales, but was confined to the County of Cumberland in the latter State.

In the earlier years, more than half the pig population of Australia had been in New South Wales and Victoria, with Queensland the next most important State. Latterly, however, the pig population of Queensland has increased rapidly and this State has now replaced Victoria as the second pig-raising State. In the ten years ended 1946, the pig population of Queensland increased by almost 50%, while the number of pigs recorded annually in Victoria remained at a fairly stable level. Fluctuations in the pig population of the Commonwealth add of individual States are recorded in Table 1.

Classification of the pig population into types as at 3 1st March, 1944, 1945. 1946 and 1947 is given in Table 2. The most significant feature of this table, from the viewpoint of she industry's future, is the steady decline since 1944 in the number of boars and breeding sows. The curtail- ment of feed wheat supplies in 1945, and the severe restrictions which operated during 1946 and 1947 contributed to the decline in t+e number of breeding stock, upon which production designed to exploit local and export market possibilities will have to be based,

The industry in Australia was developed as a side-line to the dairy industry, as was the case in Denmark, Holland aqd New Zealand. Pig production is a convenient and profitable method of disposing of by-products ~f the butter and cheese industries.

Initially the pig producer had to depend on the local market to dispose of the product. This was subject to marked fluctuations and no real stability in the industry was attained until the early 'thirties with the development of a steady export market. Prior to World War 11.. pigs were used to dispose of surplus wheat production, and pig-raising as an independent industry was commenced, With the arrival of .American troops in Australia and the neighbouring islands, the demand -for pig-meats

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE FIG INRWSTRS d

increased still further, and as the price of wheat rose in the later w$r years, wheat for stock feed was subsidised to pig producers, in order to encourage increased production.

In the following table, rhe percgntage distribution of the pig population between States is tabulated. It will be seen that in March. 1947, 28.15 % was recorded in New South Wales and 26.72% in Queensland.

1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

1940 (a) 1941 (a) 1942 (a) 1943 (a) 1944(a) 1945(a) 1946(a)

(a) A.; at March of following year.

2. 1. 2. Pig meat Production.

The number of pigs slaughtered in Australia for consumption and boiling-down increased steadily from 1929-30 to 193 6-37. Slaughterings then decreased for two years, after which the upward trend was again resumed, reaching a peak of 2.6 million head in 1941 -42. The reduction in slaughterings and in pig numbers was primarily due to adverse seasonal conditions towards the end of 1937, particularly in Queensland, and to drought conditions in the southern parts of the Commonwealth in 1938. Breeding stock were depleted during this dry spell and breeding up was recommenced in 1 93 9.

Rising costs of production, depressed prices and uncertainty of markets induced producers to kill off breeding stock during the year 1941-42, and many producers left the industry.

The trend was downwards again from 1942-43 to 1946-47, except for a slight rise in 1944-45. Table 3 shows that this trend was apparent in all States. T h e initial fall in pig slaughterings was due to uncertainty of markets, and was accompanied by a reduction in the number of breeding sows in all States. .

Thc percentage increase on the base year, 1929-30, of total pigs slaughtered in Anstralia is shown graphically in Figure 1 .

(a) Production of Pork.

As is indicated in Figure 2, there is a marked similarity between the graph for production of pork and that for slaughterings o'f pigs in Figure 1, Production of pork increased rapidly in the pre-war years up to 1936-37, . .

and this increased praduction can be cwdated with increased exports, &own i n Tabk 7.

The decrease in pork production in 1937.38 and 1938-39 was the result of adverse seasonal conditions, as explained in the previous section. Production increased again after 1938-3 9 and reached a peak of 190 million lb. in 1941-42. However, an increasing proportion of pork produced was in the form of baconer carcases, which were exported frozen and cured on arrival in the United Kingdom. Slaughterings over the years 1937-38 to 1946-47 are shown below in thousand head.

Yeer For Perk For Bacon and Ham Totol

1937-38 1,050.7 834.7 1,885.4 1958-39 1,014.2 813.7 1,827.8 1939-40 1,128.5 819.5 1,918.1 1940-41 1,378.7 955.0 2,333.7 1941-42 1,605.5 1,019.5 2,625.1 1942-43 1,062.9 1,007.8 2,070.7 1943-44 809.6 1,029.0 1,838.6 1944.45 658.3 (a) 1,264.1 1,922.9 1945-46 559.3 (a) 1,091.6 1,650.9 1946-47 526.0 (a) 1,029.5 1,555. B

(a) As a result of the prohibition on the slaughter of light-weight pigs. these would be almost entirely baconer carcases.

In February, 1941, advice was received from the United Kingdom that shipments of baconer carcases were to be discontinued. This was responsible for the heavy slaughterings of breeding stock in 1941-42 and caused pork production to fall to 8 7 million lb. in 1942-43, a fall of 33% in one year. Towards the end of 1942, the United Kingdom again agreed to eccept bacmer carcases and there was a slight recovery in pork production.

The production of pork in Australia by States is recorded in Table 5.

(b) Production of Bacon and Ham.

In pro-war years production of bacon and ham in Australia remained at a moderately steady level, as can be seen from Figure 2 and Table 6, varying betwaeg 70 million and 77 million lb. The bulk of bacon and ham cured in Australia is consumed locally, and during pre-war years the small QXpOrt market remained at a steady level.

Pr&a&oe iscreased after the outbreak sf war owing to tbe increased demand for this type of meat for Service requirements. In 1943-44 pro- ductim of hacon and hilm was teanporahly reduced nrlr some baconer carcases were diverted to the export trade for curing in mhe Vnited Kingdom. How- ever, this set-back to production was only of a temporary nature, and in 1944-45 a peak in production of 121 million Ib, (cured wtight) was reached. The increased production in thp 1944-45 season was most notice- able in New Sovlrh Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Fot the ten p- &ed 1944-4.5, production of bacon and ham in Australia increased by 56%. Since that year. bowever, prodnction bas declined, and in 1946-47 zotalled only 103 million lb.

2. 2. AUSTRALIAN EXPORT TRADE, 2. 2. 1. Export of Pork.

Up to 1929 Australia was a net importer of pork, most of which came from New Zealand, but in that year exp6fts exceeded irilpbrts. For the five yeafs ended 1925-26, an average of 696,600 lb. of potk was imported annaally, against a cortesporidiag fieure of li)0,000 lb. for exports. For the five years ended 1930-31, howeVet; althdogh impoft8 bad ihcreased, exports had increased more rapidlf, the average afitlltal figllke for i f n ~ ~ r t s amounting to 1,119,000 lb. against an export bguta bf 2,080,060 lb.

In 193 1-32 over 7 million lb. of pork was exported, and subsequent annual figures are recorded in Table 7. From 1933-34 onwards the trend in pork exports was rapidly upwards, as can be seen from Figure 3. Total expotts actually increased ftofi 8.7 milliota lb. in 1933.34 to 33.9 million lb. in 1937-38, or by 290Yo iin thir f w r - p a t per id . Frozen pork exported was of both the baconer and porker type, thd tapid ilicrease in exports during this pre-war period, however, beihg mtlifily in the form of baconers, which were cured on atrival in the united Kiagdoftl.

The slight reduction in exports in the yeat 1938-39 wea % teflection of decreased I)toduction of pig-meats geaerally. Ddriap the next two years, exports increased even more,rapidly and reached a r8corrl b e 1 @P IS hillion lb. in 1940-41. In other words, exports iaereawd Bf 144% between 1938-39 and 1948-41 or by more than ten times in the eight-year period ended 1940-4 1,

Exports fell by almost 50% in 1941-42 and to less thail 2 millioa lb. in 1942-43, The sudden drop in 1941 -42 was directly due to the fact that the United Kingdom had indicated unwiilingdess to continme taking baconer carcases. This decision was roverwd at the end of 1942, but coincided with a marked increase in local demand for pig-meat8 accompanied by a fall in production, and exports fell still further in 1942.43.

Exports recovered in 1943-44 to 16 million lb., when production was increased as a result of the stability which the industry enjoyed under the Pig Meat Plan. (See 4.4.1 for details*)

A further striking increase occurred in 1944-45, and this level of exports was almost maintained in the following year. However, in 1946-47, the effect of continued feed shortages and the narrowing of the margin betweeri costs and returns was reflected in a marked decrease in volume of exports.

Fluctuations in the quantities of baconers and porkers exported and the rehive importance of each are shown in tbe follbtwiflg table.

P a d n t . V~C(H Pbrker Pork BOLM PO## T&l B%&gher

. A - . to*. '0081b, '04JQlb. '0801b,

19&37 12,768 12,656 50 1937-38 11,760 21,840 35,606 .. zaroas 8,624 @ , ~ a eqeb 72

65

1o$pg10 10,762 40,880 ai,&o 70 1044-4l 82,082 r1,ass 7 a p o 67 284142 23,296 10904 %,c300 83. 194943 448 784 &&B$ 64

t 1943-44 1,568 14,000 15,588 96 B 4 4 4 1,705 36,88g 67,0@ 96 l@&& 2,843 ~ e p a i a%@8 #i 194647 3.255 14.629 17,884 P2

8 FCOM)MZC @lTl'LOQK FOR- THE PIG INDUSTRY

The effect of the Pig Meat Plan and the ban on-the sale of pork (referred to below) was to throw emphasis on baconer production, as can be seen from the 1943-44 figure.

Table -8 indicates the trend in exports of pork on the basis of States of final shipment. The value and volume of pork exports from the individual States and for the Commonwealth as a whole are recorded. It will be seen that Queensland is by far the leading pork-exporting State, followed by Victoria. Another interesting feature is the remarkable increase in pork exports from South Australia and Western Australia in 1940-4 1.

2. 2. 2. Destination of Australian Pork Exports.

The United Kingdom has been the main export market for Australian frozen pork, and the marked development of the export trade has been almost wholly associated with the development of the United Kingdom frozen pork market (as is shown in Figure 4 ) . In the year 1932-33 this market accounted for 9 3 % of total pork exports from Australia and the figure rose to 98 % in the last pre-war year. In the peak year, 1940-41, 97% of total exports were sent to the United Kingdom, but in 1943-44 the figure had fallen .to 8 7 % , when 1.5 million lb. of frozen pork was exported to Ceylon and Egypt, largely for Service requirements.

Smaller markets exist in Ceylon, British Malaya, Egypt, the Philippines and British Pacific Islands. Prior to the war, exports to British Malaya and British Pacific Islands had been increasing, but in 1938-39 exports to 4

these markets amount to only 350,000 lb. Since the outbreak of war, exports to countries other than the United Kingdom have increased, and in 1940-41, the peak year for exports, more than 2 million lb. were exported to these markets. However, these exports during the war years have been &

mainly to satisfy Service requirements.

2. 2. 3. Exports of Bacon and Ham.

In the pre-war years, exports of bacon and ham from Australia remained at a fairly steady level and were small in comparison with pork exports drring the same period. In 1936-37 the highest pie-war figure for exports, i.e., 1,752,000 lb., was reached, and in 1938-39 the figure was 1,739,000 lb.

The export figure jumped to over 4 million lb. in the first war year. Although it has fluctuated since, the level of exports has been considerably higher than in the pre-war period, reaching a peak of 8,625,000 lb. in 1943-44. Increased exports during the war years have been due to increased Service demands. .Actual export figures are recorded in Tables 9 and 10, and the trend in exports is shown graphically in Figure 3,

Table 9 shqws total Australian exports of bacon and ham and analyses them according to destination. States of final shipment are included in

1

Table 10, and the value of bacon and ham exports from the individual . States and for the Commonwealth as a whole is included, in addition to quantities exported. C

$

As was the^ case with pork, Queensland is again the chief exporting State and in the five pro-war years ended 1938r39 was responsibtedfor 69%

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE .PIG INDUBTRY 7

of total Australian exports of bacon and ham. This figure had decreased to 36% in 1940-41 owing to rapid increases in production in New South Wales and Victoria.

Figure 5 compares total production of bacon and ham in Australia with exports to the United Kingdom, exports to other countries, and home consumption. It will be seen that total exports of bacon aqd ham are insignificant in comparison with total production.

2. 2. 4. Destifiation of Australian Exports of Bacon and Ham.

In pre-war years, although the annual quantity was increasing, only small quantities of bacon and ham were exported to the United I(ingdom.. In 1945-46, a maximum of almost 3 million lb. was recorded. The main export 'trade is with Eastern and Pacific markets, the chief of which are the Netherlands East Indies, British Malaya, the Philippine Islands and Hongkong. A marked increase in exports to India, Ceylon and Egypt was recorded during the war years to meet Service demands.

2. 3. OVERSEAS COUNTRIES.

Figures relating to the pig population of any country are generally most unsatisfactory, as they fluctuate widely according to the time of the year at which the pig census is taken. However, when this is acknowledged, and figures presented are used with discretion, useful deductions relative to trends can be made..

The number of pigs in various Empire and foreign countries for the years 1934 to 1947 is recorded in Table 1 1. In exporting countries pig numbers reached a maximum in 193 1, but numbers were drastically reduced in subsequent pre-war years, due mainly to the restriction of imports into the United Kingdom. A further reduction in pig numbers in both the United Kingdom and Germany occurred in 1938, the 1938 figures being 4.37 million and 20.80 million head respectively. A decline was also recorded in Denmark, the new figure being 2.85 million.

From Table 11 it will be seen that the pig population of the United States of America far exceeds that of any other country, The U.S.S.R. Germany and Brazil rank next in importance. It follows that the U.S.A. is the leading producer of pig-meats. Figures for slaughterings are tabulated in Table 12 for the years 1931 to 1937.

In early 1946 pig numbers in Europe (excluding Russia), estimated at approximately 46 million head, were 57% below the average for the years 1936-40. Total pig numbers in the United Kingdom were Iesi than half the pre-war average. Numbers in Europe declined sharply, during the war, chiefly because of the lack of imported feeds. The present world shortage of feed and food grains will prevent any great increase in pig numbers on the Continent and in the United Kingdom in the next year or two. European pig numbers also declined during the first World War, and it was not until 1926, or eight years after the Armistice, that numbers werb restored to approximately the pe-war level.

World trade in pig-meats prior to World War 11. was dominated by the movement of bacon and hams to the United Kingdom. In 1938, 844 miliicin Zb., or 94% bf total estimated world exports, of 897 million lb.,-

were' infpurted by the United Kingdom.

8 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

World exports of pork have been on a much smaller scale, totalling only 244 million lb. in 193 8, the main exporting county being New Zealand with 59 million lb. The United Kingdom imported 138 million lb., or 56 % of total world exports in 1938, while Germany was the next most important market with 89 million lb.. or 36%.

Trade in bacon and hams rose steadily from 1926 and reached a peak in 193 1 of 1,374 million lb., an increase of approximately 30% on the 1926 figure. This was mainly a result of a rapid increase in Denmark's production. After the Ottawa Agreement, with its restriction on imports into the United Kingdom, world trade fell, no alternative markets being available. Total exports fell by 38 % between 1932 and 1936, but showed a slight recovery in 1937 and 1938, when United Kingdom imports increased.

Prior to 1932, exports from the U.S.A. declined, but were compen- sated by increased exports from many European countries. From 1932 until the outbreak of war, exports from Denmark declined by 54% and the, Empire's share of the United Kingdom market increased accordingly.

World trade in pork declined after the United Kingdom embargo n imports of Continental fresh meat in 1926, but this was partly offset by increasing exports of frozen pork from New Zealand and Australia.

2. 3. 1. United ,Kingdom.

The pig industry in the United Kingdom had been the recipient of Government assistance prior to World War II., but with only moderate success.

The first direct assistance to the meat industry generally was incor- porated in the Ottawa Agreements Act, 1932, by which import quotas were established for non-Empire countries. The Act did not cover pig- meats, however, and, instead, separate agreements were reached with the main exporting countries, by which they agreed to reduce bacon and ham exports to the United Kingdarn by 20% of their exports during the period November-August, 1932-33. Further reductions of 11 % in September and 16% in November, 1933, followed.

In 1933 a Pig Marketing Board and a Bacon Marketing Board were established to organise the "home" bacon industry. However, the supply of pigs within the United Kingdom was not sufficient to maintain the curing factories at maximum production efficiency. The United Kingdom consumer also showed a preference for foreign-cured bacon, and as a result better prices were offering for porkers than baconers.

Bacon factories were licensed by 1st January, 1936, as a result of rhe constitution of a Bacon Developmental Board. In this way, the Board was able to ensure a more equitable distribution of pigs to factories. In July, 1938, the Bacon Industry Act was passed, providing for a three-year subsidy and guaranteeing to farmers through curers a fixed price of 12/6 , per 201b. (dead weight), i.e., 7+d lb., when costs of pig-feed averaged 8 /6 cwt. This was a definire attempt to stabilise the industry, as when feed costs increased the producer was subsidised accordingly, while if feed costs decreased he received proportionately less. t

With the ourbreak of war the Ministry of Food assumed control of all domestically-killed meat and these schemes were indefinitely suspended,

* ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY Q

The trend in pig numbers in the United Kingdom for the period 1930 to 1947 is given in the following table:-

* Year Breeding Sows All Other Pigs Total Pig6

(As a t 1st June) ('000) ('OM)) ('000)

1930 354 2,316 2,670 1931 445 2,736 3,181 1932 465 3,105 3,570 1933 454 3,053 3,507 1934 519 3,388 3,907 1935 574 3,958 4,532 1936 569 3,993 4,562 1937 541 3,912 4,453 1938 521 3,862 4,383 1939 542 3,852 4,394 1940 468 3,638 4,106 1941 244 2,314 2,558 1942 250 1,893 2,143 1943 186 1,643 1,829 1944 253 1,614 1,867 1945 246 1,906 2,152

I 1946 221 1,734 1,955 1947 197 1,431 1,628

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture "Foreign Agriculture," Vol. 9, No. 10, October, 1945, and U.K. Monthly Digest of Statistics.

During the years 1930 to 1935 the pig industry expanded rapidly in the United Kingdom and then remained fairly stable until the outbreak of war. During the war total pig numbers decreased from 4,394,000 in 1939 to 1,829,000 in 1943, or by 58%. but an even more significant decline occurred in the number of breeding sows, which decreased from 542,000 to 186,000, or by 6 6 % . The fall during these years was the result of a low feed-ration priority, shortages of food and a scarcity of manpowfr. Pig-meat production was deliberately discouraged by the Ministry of Food because of the pig's dependence on grain.

By June, 1944. the pig population had shown signs of recovery, particularly in the number of breeding sows, indicating that the long-term project of building up numbers had commenced. Figures for June, 1945. showed a further increase on the I943 figures. However, this trend has since been reversed owing to the acute grain shortage, and by 1st June. 1947, the pig population totalled only 1,628,000.

Domestic production of pork and bacon is estimated to havp declined by 60% to 65% from the pre-war level. The following table indicates in millions of lb. the source and size of United Kingdom pig-meat snpplirs for the years 1930 to 1939, later figures being unavailable on a cornparabbe basis. "a

f P1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FOR. THE PIG JNDU%T&P

- , Domestic Production Imports from Ausf.,

Year Quantity Total Total Quantity of %t imports Supply 'Imports

l930 692 32-8 1,288 * 1,917 2 .6 0 . 2 1931 697 32.6 1,438 2,135 9 . 6 0 .7 1932 788 35.3 1,443 2,231 5 . 0 0 . 3 1933 822 40.3 1,217 2,039 7 . 4 0 .6 1934 858 44.1 1,089 1,947 9 . 3 0 . 9 1935. 979 49.9 983 1,962 16.5 1 . 7 193q ' 1,030 52.0 951 1,981 26.1 2 .7 1937 1,019 50.8 986 2,005 26.2 2 .7 1938 948 48.9 991 1,939 31.8 3 .2 1939 - 938 48.3 1,004 1,942 (a) (a)

l (a) Not available.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture "Foreign Agriculture," Vol. 9, No. 10, October, 1945.

Imports of pork and bacon and ham are shown separately in Tables 16 and 17. It will be seen that New Zealand was by far the major source of U.K. frozen pork supplies, and that between 1936 and the outbreak of war, Australia exported more frozen pork to the U.K. than did Argentina. Salted pork imports were small and relatively unimportant, and with the embargo on imports of fresh meat from the Continent, Eire was the only supplier of fresh pork.

Pre:war, Denmark supplied approximately 5 0 % of U.K. requirements of imported bacon, total imports of bacon and imports from Denmark having decreased since imports were subject to quota in 1932. Imports from the Netherlands also decreased after 1932, while imports from Canada increased accordingly from 20 million lb. in 1932 to 143 million lb. in 1938.

, The United States has always been the chief exporter of hams to the Vnited Kingdom, and in 1938 approximately 60% of the U.K.'s imports came from this source. Total imports of bacon and ham to the U.K. showed a steady decline from 1,365.5 million lb. in 1932 to 81 1.1 million lb. in 1936, with a slight recovery in 1937, The decrease was mainly in bacon imports, although imports of hams also decreased during the period.

l

'2. '3. 2. Argentina.

The pig industry of Argentina remained undeveloped until the middle 1 9 2 0 ' ~ ~ .but ,from then onwards pig numbers and pig meat production increased at a steady rate. Slaughterings in registered slaughterhouses 'averdged 1:3 million head for' the five years ended 1939, and pork production averaged 242 million lb. during this period.

' " The outbreak of WWorld War 11. and the resulting diminution in

.&iripean productioa provided the stimulus for an expanded industry. '1930, 'Rtgentilia's .pig population totalled 3.77 million, and by 1937

:&&:LC:miHim mark had'just been: reached. At the outbreak of war numbers had fallen to 3.38 million, but in June, 1944, the record level of 8.8 millipn

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR' THE PIG I[NDUSTR'II 1%

W& reached. The subsequent downward trend is shown in the c following table:-

June, 1944 . . . . . . . . . . 8.8 million head June, 1945 . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 million head June, 1946 . . . . . . . . . 5.0 million head June, 1947 . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 million head

The increade in rhe pig population during the war years was accompanied by a steady increase in slaughterings up to 1944, when they totalled 4.5 million. This increased production largely found its way into the export trade, but it should be noted in the following table that domestic consumption increased by more than 100%.

- Year Slaughterings ('000 head) Exports

For Export For Domestic Total Volume Value 1 Use ('000 tons) (Mill. Pews)

Average 1935-39 386 968 1,354 8.5 5.8

(a) Including unboned; 900 tons in 1942, 2,600 tons in 1943 and , 21.100 tons in 1944.

(b) Not available. Source: "Argentina's Agricultural Exports During World War 11." .

-Egoroff, Statistical Supplement to the "Economist."

In pre-war years exports were mainly to the United Kingdom in the frozen or chilled form, and during the five-year period ended 1939, -Argentina supplied 17% of the United Kingdom pork market. In 1949 prices slumped and exports were reduced owing to the uncertainty of the United Kingdom market. However, in 1941 the United Kingdom agreed $Q take I0,OOQ tons of Argentine pork within a few months and in October, 1941, concluded an agreement to take 41,000 tons of frozen VoneIess pork in the twelve months ended September, 1942.

This agreement gave the industry .stability once again, and witfrsurplus corn'available at a low price, production increased rapidly. ' In the agree. ment there was no reduction in price for heavy-weight pigs, and consequently pigs were carried on to weights of 300-320 lb. As a result, the United Kingdom found i t necessary, early in 1943, to limit the amount of fat to 55% pep carcase. .The implementation of this provision provided no difficulries, as drought conditions prevailed at the end of 1942 and for the early months of 1993, with the result that pigs were again marketed at lighter weights. -- I In 194-4 a bumper corn trap led- once again to favourable conditions for production and in that year Argentina exported 15 times as much pork as the average figure- f6r the' five years edddd 193 9. Conditions were again

12 ECONOMIC OUTLOOa FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

favourable for pig-meat production in 1945 and slaughterings did not .fall back to the 1943 level. Since 1945 the hog-corn price ratio has not provided the same incentive and production has decreased appreciably. The decline is expected to continue during 1948.

2. 3. 3. New Zealand. The pig industry in New Zealand has developed in similar fashion to

that in Australia, as a side-line to dairying. It developed steadily until 1932, but after that: year development was accelerated as exports of frozen pork to the United Kingdom were increased. Variations in New Zealand's pig population are recorded in the following table:-

Yeor Number Year Number (As ot Jan. 31 1 (As a t Jan. 31)

1891 222,553 1935 755,094 1896 239,778 1936 800,802 1901 250,975 1937 794,750 1906 249,727 1938 748,805 1911 348,754 1939 675,802 1916 297,501 1940 706,340 1921 349,892 1941 761,519 Cl926 472,534 1942 681,016 1931 468,533 1943 604,574 1933 583,921 1944 573,362 1934 652,732 1945 593,828

1946 549,391 1947 546,000

Source: New Zealand Official Year Books.

During the war years, the pig population fluctuated, but has decreased from 675,802 head in 1939 to 546,000 in 1947. The peak figure for the pig population, 800,802, was reached on 3 1st January, 1936.

Since pig-farming in New Zealand is an adjunct to dairy-farming, the distribution of pigs closely follows that of dairy cattle. However, although the dairy industry has progressed at a rapid rate, reaching a peak in numbers of dairy cattle in 1934-35, the same rate of increase has not been apparent in pig numbers. For the forty-year period ended 1934-35 dairy cattle numbers increased by 260%. while in the same period pig numbers increased by 150%.

An analysis of the pig population, according to age and sex classificatioa, is made in the following table:-

As at Pigs under Pigs 6 mths. Boars l yr. Sow 1 yr. Total 31st Jw. 6 mths. old G under I yr. old G over old G over Pips

1939 433.955 126.958 18.865 96.024 675.802 - -- 1940 44ll48l 1541751 18;079 921029 1941 475,406 168,778 17,687 99,648 f 942 439,288 135,003 16,177 " 90,608 1943 507,502 15,049 82,023 1944 481,927 14,154 77,281 1945 502,653 13,973 77,202 1946 463,647 13,171 72,573 1947 (a) 68,000

(a) Not available. Source: New Zealand Official Year Books.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY .l5

Tables 18 and 19 indicate the number and the types of pigs slaughtered during the war years. In spite of the great reduction in pig slaughterings since 1942, production of pig-meat has not decreased to a marked extent, as pigs have been held to greater weights. Actually, pig-meat production in 1945 showed an increase of one million pounds over the 1944 figure. although slaughterings decreased by 47,440, as can be seen in the following table, which includes bacon and ham at dressed carcase weight equivalent:-

Production. Year. ('000,OOOlb.) 1941 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116.9 1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112.6 1943 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101.2 1944 . . . . . . . . . . 92.7 1945 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93.8 1946 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96.7

2. 3. 4. Canada. War-time expansion in the pig industry has been more marked in

Canada than in any other country. An impression of the degree of expansion can be obtained from Table 22, which indicates trends in the pig population of Canada.

Pig numbers showed only minor fluctuations prior to World War II., without indicating any marked trend. Since the outbreak of war, however, pig numbers have increased from 4,364,000 on 1st June, 1939, to 8,148,000 on 1st June, 1943 : that is, an increase of 87%. A decrease of 410,000 occurred in 1944 and by 1st June, 1945, pig numbers had

' been further reduced to 6,026,000 head, which was slightly above the C. 1940 figure. Owing to the continued shortage of feed grain, a further

decline in numbers is revealed in the 1946 and 1947 figures. Figures for slaughterings and pork production show a similar rising

trend. The following table contains statistics for slaughterings, pork production, imports and exports for the years 1935 to 1946.

Calendar Net Net Slaughter Im orts b) Exports Year Slaughter (1) (dressed wt.) (2) (3)

'000 head '000 lb. 'W0 lb. '000 lb. 1935 4.700 563.745 403 132.256

1941 8;5ll 1,056;046 5;156 482;040 1942 9,283 1,188,295 937 537,431 1943 10,551 1,394,400 3,306 587,475 1944 51,422 1,503,257 665 717,714 1945 8,684 1,111,607 17 462,049 1946 6,504 823,846 726 297,871

AV. 1935-39 5,165 620,522 7,394 179,630 (1) Total sales and farm slaughter adjusted for exports and imports of live animals. (2) Edible meat excl. fats and offals. (3) Dressed

carcase basis. Source: Canada---Quarterly Bulletin of Agricultural Statistics.

~CONOMIi2 .OU!l'LOOK FOIE THE PKG INWS!l'R'IT * I

Slaughterings Rave increased front an average of 5,165,000 head for the five-year period 1935-39 to 11,422,000 head in 1944, representirig an increase of 121 % during the war years. In the same period, production f of edible meat excluding fats and offals has increased from 621 million lb. to 1,503 million lb., or 142%. For the five-year period 1935-39, the ratio of meat production to slaughtering was 120. In other words, the average dressed weight of a carcase in pre-war years was 1201b. In 1944, the average dressed weight per carcase had increased to 132 lb. This is further evidence of the availability of surplus grain feeds at profitable prices and the general emphasis on increased production of meat. It could also indicate a marked change-over in pig types from porkers to baconers.

In 1945, a downward trend in pork production became apparent and production for the year decreased to 1,023 million lb. This decline in production continued in 1946, when production totalled 789 million lb., which was below the 1940 figure.

1 Exports of pig-meats from Canada took up most of the additional production during the war period, although there was a 50% increase in home consumption. Exports have increased by 300% from an average figure of 179,630,000 lb. for the five years ended 1939 to 717,714,000 lb. in 1944. This expansion in exports of pig-meats of 300% has been almost wholly due to increased imports by the United Kingdom.

Canadian exports of pig-meats to the United Kingdom and other countries are listed in the following table in thousands of pounds for the +

yean 1935-1944:-

Yeur United Kingdom United States Total Exports 2

1935 139,823 4,764 148,127 1936 174,146 15,183 195,081 1937 216,159 22,041 245,052 1938 190,859 3,431 199,592 1939 209,438 3,228 218,073

A V ~ . '35-39 186,085 9,729 20i , i s5 1940 385,584 3,993 395,377 -

I 1941 516,097 12,669 539,884 l 1942 587,946 9 601,923

1943 644,248 4 657,972 1944 787,008 - 803,840

Source: Canada-Live Stock and Animal Products Statistics, 1944.

2. 3. 5. United States of America.

There was no marked variation in the pig population of the U.S.A. during the ten years ended 1934, but in 1935 numbers had fallen to 3 9 miHlon head, from 59 million head in the previous _yxa_r, Fr6m- L935 to 1939 pig numbers rose steadily to reach 50 million head in the latter yet. Further rapid iacreases occurred daring the war .years, and pig numbers reached an all-time . "'high:' ef almost 84 million head on 1st Jannatj., -1 9 e 8 * ; In - othel: words, 9% aumbtrs incresed.by, 9.2 % on

thk five-year pre-wat average of 44 million head, The iwrease in total pig numbers was accompanied by a corresponding increase in: the number of

4 sows and giits. as indicated in Table 23. As would be expected with this increase in breeding stock, slaughterings

increased -during. -the same period. In 1944 a peak j n Slaughterings of 96.8 million head was reached, being an increase of 70% on the average figure of 56.8 nljllion head for the five years ended 193'8-39, as can be sekq from the following table:-

. , *

-Year - Inspected - Non-inspected Farm - ('p 'head)'Totak Average ., . .

1935-39 39,262 8,871 13,656 56,789 1940 ' ' 50,398 13,057 14,155 . 77,610 '

1941 46,520 12,088 12,789 . 71,397 : 1942 , = 53,897 12,117 12,533 78,547

l 1943 - 63,431 17,779 14,016 95,226

- 1944 . 69,017 15,500 13,581 98,068 . 1945 40,960 17,300 13,631 . 171,891 . , 1946 44,394 18,000 13,850 76,244 1947(a) - - - 74,5073 . 1948(b) - 72300 '

h

(a) Preliminary. (b) Forecast:

Source: United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics, "The Livestock and Meat Situation."

f

The average live weight of pigs slaughtered also increased during the war years, due largely to surpluses of grain at reasonable prices and stabilised prices for pig-meat. In other words, a favourable hog-corn price ratio had beeq maintained after 1939. Annual average weight of pigs slaughtered under Federal inspection is set out in lb. in the following table:-

Year Average Live Average Yield per Hog Average Yield per 100 Ib Weight Pork Lard (a) Pork Lard (a)

(a) Including rendered pork fat. (b) Not available.

Source: United States Bureau of Agricultural Economits, "The Livestock and Wool Sitqation." ,

& ECONOMW OU!lZOOS Foa TIiF PIG INDKMT%Y

For the pre-war years 1935-39 the average live weight was 229 lb. During the war years this figure increased gradually, until a peak of 254 lb. was reached in 1943. Hog weights in 1944 were considerably lighter, as less grais was available per grain-consuming animal unit and feed grain prices had risen. In 1945, fsed grain supplies per grain-consuming animal improved and pig weigh& for this year showed an increase on the 1944 figure. In addition, in February the hog-corn price ratio of 13.2 was more favourable than it had been since 1943. By February, 1946, the hog-corn ratio had fallen to 12.8, and by March, 1946, to 12.5. As a result of the high feed grain prices, together with the difficulty in securing feed grains and protein feeds, hogs were marketed at much lighter weights throughout 1946.

Sharp increases in feed-grain and protein feed ceiling prices, which were effective from 13th May, 1946, depressed the hog-corn ratio to an even greater extent. The policy of the Government as alrrrounced was to encourage the marketing of hogs at lighter weights and to reduce the production of hogs, thereby conserving grain for direct human consumption. Accordingly, the goal announced for the 1946 autumn pig crop of 31.5 million head was 10% below the autumn pig-crop of 1945.

Increased production of pork after the outbreak of war was the result of an increase in the number and average weigbt of pigs slaughtered. The effect of both factors led to an increase of 82% in pork production in 1943 compared with the average production figure for the last five pre-war years. The term "pork," as used in the fdlowing table and Table 24, signifies pig-meats generally, some being subsequently converted into bacon and hams. Since 1946 there has been a decline in production, which is expected t o continue during 1948.

- - I 0

5- &gt FE .- .- * V *- 0 .g52 ;gg B E { g$g ;E; dZS 3

- - W E O P e t *a SE:: asR 8 g42

r f A 155% wuu, . 1935-39 ('000,000 lb.)

1945 101046 (a) 1946 10,300 (a)

(a) Not available. Source: United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics, National

Food Situation.

Total exports increased from a five-year pre-war average of 142 million lb. to 2,600 million lb. in, 1943, but fell away in the later war years in proportion to the decline in production. During the war years, exports: included U.S. overseas Service requirements.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG XNDUSTRY 31

2. 3. 6. Denmark. In 193 1, the pig population of Denmark was 5.45 million, and by

1937 had declined to 3.07 million. It ~ecovered slightly during the last two pre-war years and stood at 3.13 million in 1939. Since the outbreak of war and the occupation by the Germans, there has been a drastic reduction in pig numbers. Actual figures for the pig population of Denmark and the number of milking cows during the war years are recorded in the following table:-

Livestock Numbers ('000) ' Index Numbers (1939: 100) YLAR --

Hogs Sows Milk Cows Hogs Sows Milk Cows L

1939 3,133 383 1,614 100 100 100 1942 1,206 172 1,391 38 45 86 1943 2,048 243 1,462 65 63 91 1944 2,084 206 1,556 67 54 96 1945 1,658 204 1,582 53 53 98 1946 1,781 (a) ( a ) 57 (a) (a) 1947 1,704 (a) (a) 55 (a) (a)

(a) Not available. Source: Farm Economics (U.S.A.) , February, 1946, and F.A.O.

"Livestock Products Review, 1 947."

Although the number of hogs decreased by almost 50% during the war years, an even more significant feature is a similar decline in the number of breeding sows. There was a marked decline in the number of milk cows between 1939 and 1942, but numbers have since increased and in 1945 had reached 98% of the pre-war level. During the war, numbers of milk cows and total milk production were maintained at the expense of pigs and poultry. While the present food shortage in Europe exists, this is likely to continue, and although there was a slight recovery in pig numbers during 1946, there was again a reduction in the 1947 figure. However, when the food position becomes less critical, Denmark's production should rapidly reach pre-war levels.

2. 4. PRODUCTION COSTS.

It is difficult to make any reliable assessment of production costs for pig-meats produced as a side-line to the dairy industry, or as an independent industry. The problem is more complicated in the former case, as the item which usually accounts for a large percentage of the production cost, namely, feed, is in this instance a by-product of the dairy industry. As a result, the farmer usually speaks of the net return per gallon of milk, rather than considering, or attempting to set a value on, feed costs. This figure repre- sents the excess of the sale price over incidental expenses (such as labour, depreciation and marketing costs) divided by the number of gallons of skim milk consumed. It has been stated that the accepted normal valuation in pre-war years was one penny per gallon..

A fuller assessment of production costs can be made when pig-raising is carried on as an independent enterprise--that is, when the pigs are

+ basically grain fed. However, as costs vary widely between districts, between seasons and from year to year, any estimated cost of production schedule

.will be found to vary in a similar fashion. Tables 25 and 26 give a

systematic analysis of production costs for bac~ner and .#arker 'Gigs rdpsd- tively. Table 25 is b@d on a unit of 3 0 sows and one boar, the sows averaging 14 pigs per year (two litters of seven), while the basic unit "ip Table 26 is 40 sows and one boar,

Both tabts show that the cost of feed is the major item affecting the final cost per lb. of bacon or pork. In the case of bacon, feed accounts tor more than 64% of the final cost of producthp In ,these tables, ralculations have been based on the exclusive use of wheat as the feed g r a i ~

These estimates are based on a feed mixture comprising 10% meat meal and 90% wheat, with the price of wheat or approximately 3/6 per bushel and meat meal at l 0 per short ton. The pr;ice of feed *wheat is thus the predominant factor in the production costs structure, The following tables illustrate the effect of variations in the price of feed wheat 04 the cost of bacon per lb. and the cost of pork per lb. respectively.

Price of Feed Costs Other Total Cost Cost of Wheat for 140 lb. Costs far 140 lb. Bocon

per bushel Baconer Bacorier w r lb. ,

d. l

3/6 12 10 0 '-£l 7 7 - £ 3 1 7 7 - - 6 . 6 5 ' 4/- 2 1 6 0 1 7 7 4 3 7 ' 7.16

l I 4/6 3 2 0 1 7 7 4 . 9 7 7.76 I 5 / - 3 8 0 1 7 7 4 1 5 7 8 .19

Price of Other Totol Cost for Cost of Wheat F e d Costs for Costs 90 lb. Porker Pork

>per Bushel 90 lb. Porker per lb.

5/6 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 12 10 9 .60 ' 6/- 2 1 4 0 1 2 1 0 3 16 10 10.13 6/6 2 1 8 0 1 2 1 0 4 o l a 10.66 -

A further estimate of production costs has been made by Mr. L. A. Downey, Pig Expert of the Victorian Department of Agriculture. This estimate was made in 1942 and gives the following information f ~ : a 140 lb. baconer:-

'FEED COSTS: Grain (wheat at 3/62} . . . . . . . . f 2 7 2 Protein (120 galls. skim milk at Id) 10 b

-L

2 17 2 OTHER COSTS: Labour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 0

Interest on capital outlay . . . . 1 8 . A

Depreciation on plant . . . . . . 1 0 Selling costs (at auction) . . . 6 0 - 18 . 8

f 3 15 10 -i.e., equivalent to 64d per lb.

Estimates made by the N.s:W. Depirtment of-&kultdre ik 1943 give the cost per Ib; of a 140-lb. batoner bg betwhene7Ad and 8 td . h While these estimates show quite significant diRekrices in h e finaf cost per I& - they all emphasise the importance of feed coqs. ' m . .

It should be noted that feeding 'tests carried' out .in South Austiaiia and Western Australia have indicated that in a ration "without meat meal, 4.2 lb. of wheat were required to pxoduce a 1 lb. gain in the weight of a pig. With a ration containing 7 % meat meat, only 2.6 lb. of- wheat were required to produce a similar gain in weight.

. . . , . . L

". 2. 5. STANDARDS OF PRODUC+ION.

2. 5. 1. Quality, Grading and- ~ealgh. - .

Although a number of effo?rs have been made ro.intr?duce a rigid grading system for both the local trade and export, this has not been achieved to date for the local trade.

Under the Commerce (Meat Export) Regulations, pig-meat for export is. submitted to veterinary officers of the Department of Commerce and Agriculture for inspection. The meat was formerly classified into two grades if suitable for export, +e two grades being determined on quality grounds, and certificates were issued accordingly as.follows:

(1) "Approved for Exportm--in respect of g.a,q.

(2) "Passed for Exportn-in respect of f.a.q.

With the formation of the Australian Meat ~ o i r d , consideration wab given to the alteration of this system of grading to provide for three quality grades, namely lst, 2nd and 3rd.

During 1938 the Board conducted a questionnaire survey of the pig industry and, after collating the data obtained, called a conference of State and Commonwealth representatives to discuss all phases af the industry. The conference. was regarded as the first step towards the adoption of Common- wealth standards of pig production and quality.

In 1939, the grading of pig-meat for export was altered and brought into Bne with other meats by the adoption of three quality grades, namely:-

(1) First Quality.

(2) Second Quality.

(3) Choppers.

Within 1st Quality and 2nd Quality grades subsidiary subdivisions on a weight basis were also introduced. Although it is generally recog- nised that a similar system bf grading and branding is essential for the local trade, certain administrative diaculties have prevented its introduction ,on s Commonwealth basis. Since the outbreak of war, further efforts have been made t o introduce grading and branding for the local trade and test grading has been carried out ih some States using the "Hammond" system

At a meeting between the Meat Industry Advisory Cammittq and pig producers' representatives in November. 1945, it was recommended:-

"That the Meat lndustry Advisory Committee should eontindr

ECOND891C OUTLOOK FOR TBE PEG ~ N D U B * ~

its efforts to bring about the introduction of a rigid system of grading based on the principles Involved in the original recommendition bp the NEW South Wales Pig-meat Advisory Committee." Priof t o the war, the Australian Meat Board conducted bacdner and

porker competitions in the United Kingdom with the idea ;of increaking the Australian producer's interest in the production of quality carcase$. The judging was carried out under the "Hammond" system of measbrement, points being allotted on the following basis for baconers:-

A, BY INSPECTION. 1. Ham: T h e bone should be fine and the ham well

filled with lean meat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 points 2. Shoulder: T h e shoulder should be light and in

proportion to the rest of the carcase . . . . . . . . 7 points 3. Streak: T h e belly should be thick and should

. . . . . . . . contain at least 50% of lean to fat 12 points

. . . . . . . . Total 27 points

B, BY MEASUREMENT. 1. Body Length: This is taken from the symphysis

pubis to the junction of the breastbone and the first . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . rib 20 points

Leg Length: Taken from the symphysis pubis to the point of the toe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 points

3. Eye Muscle: This is measured half-way along its width. This gives the best measure of the thickness

. . . . . . . . . . of lean meat through the carcase 28 points 4. Back Fat: Is measured with one point of the

caIIipers at the edge of the eye muscle and the other . . . . . . . . . . . . at the inner edge of the skin 20 points

Total . . . . . . . . 73 points

GRAND TOTAL: 100 points

Points in the porker ~ompetitions are awarded in a similar fashion. The success of pig-testing stations in Denmark and the realisation that

there was a definite lack of uniformity of type in Australian pigs led to the initiation of pig-testing stations in Australia. These stations are concerned with scientific breeding methods, progeny testing and the culling of undesirable types. They were sponsored by the Australian Meat Board, which voted a sum of & 150 to each State Qepartment of Agriculture in 1940 towards the cost of carrying out pig testing work. The Departments of Western Australia and South Australia immediately availed themselves of this oppor- tunity. Further development of this scheme has been retarded by war-time and post-war shortages of labour and materials.

I t ia impossible to over-emphasise the importance of standardising the type of pig produced, particularly for the export market. It is realised tbat %here will be some variation between breeds and crosses used in different dis-

ECONOMIC OUTLOOR. FOB THE PIG TNDUSTRP %2

tricts and recommended under varying climatic conditions. However, uniformity of type can undoubtedly be improved as a result of more attention from the breeding angle. A rigid system of grading is also important in this respect, and the introduction of a rigid grading system for the local trade would be reflected in an improvement in the uniformity of export carcases.

2. 5. 2. Comparison with Other Exporting Countries.

(a) New Zealand:

Pig production in New Zealand is small in relation to cattle and sheep production, being mainly a side-line to dairying. Thus, concentration on pig breeding has been less intense than on cattle and sheep, and no marked steps were taken in this direction until 1928, when an export trade in frozen baconers began to develop.

Recording of productive characters was developed at fiat on a farmer co-operative experimental basis, and later on a State-aided national basis. A pig-club movement organised on the Scandinavian plan played an important part in providing farnlers with good quality stock from 1936 onwards. Carcase competitions on an extensive basis assist in maintaining the standard of quality. Objective methods are employed in all carcase judging work, and recently the "Hammond system for evaluating baconer carcases was accepted by all interested bodies as a national system.

Inspection of all pig-meat, whether for local consumption or export. is carried out by the Department of Agriculture under the Meat Act, 1939. Pig-meat intended for export is slaughtered at meat export slaughter-houses, of which there are 38 at present operating in the Dominion. They are licensed, subject to the provisions of the Meat Act, and licences must be renewed annually.

The grading of all frozen pig-meat exported is carried out under the supervision of the New Zealand Meat Producers' Board. The following quality grades are used:-

PORKERS: First Grade. Prime barrows and maiden sows. Second Grade.

BACONERS: First and Second Quality.

Grading and branding for the local trade has been operating satis- factorily in Wellington since November, 1943, under the Board of Trade (Meat Grading) Regulations, 1943. In addition, the scheme became .effective over the whole of New Zealand on 1st January, 1945. Under this scheme, pork is graded into one of three specified grades, as under:-

1. First Grade.

2. Second Grade.

3. Boner Grade.

Back-fat measurements play an important part in the grading system and are taken without having to cut the pig down. A pig expert has, been appointed for the Dominion as a whole and one of his main responsibilities is standardisation of type and general improvements in quality.

E-mC UUT7AW% -WXRR THE: PIG INDUSTRX

(b) Denmark:

~enmark 'has been the chief exporter of bacon to the United Kingdom, a.nd has maintained her position largely as a resuit of producing a standardised product, which has conformed with the requirements of United Kingdpm consumers. The marked degree of uniformity in the Danish product can be almost wholly attributed to the development of scientific methods of keeding, progeny testing and culling of unsatisfactory types. With this end i-n dew, pig-testing stations were first established in 1907, and by 1938 there were five official and fifteen local or semi-official stations in operation. It is claimed that the establishment of these pig-testing stations has been respon- sibla for ?he foi1lowing:--

1 . A big improvement in carcase type. 2 . A standard type of carcase. 3, An improvement of 22% in carcase quality over a period of six

years. . 4. R decrease of 50 days i n the time necessary to take a pig to bacon

weight. 5 . R reduetion in food consumption per Ib, of live weight gain

, from f . 1 3 lb. ttd 3.40 lb. At the same time, the live weight gain per pig per day has been increased from 1.05 lb. to 1.48 lb., with a simultaneous increase in carcase quality.

2. 5. 3. Necessary Improvements in Standards of Production.

Owing to the relatively high cost of production compared with other meats, expansion of the "home" market for pig-meats seems to be maiqly dependent on income levels and an expansion in population. In view of this fact, any sudden increase in the demand for Australian pig-meats can only be expected from overseas marketsthiefly the United Kingdom market, Accordingly, the aim of Australian pig producers should be to provide the product which is demanded by the United Kingdom consumer.

It appears that Australia's exports of pig-meats will continue to be mainly in the form of frozen baconer carcases for curing in the United Kingdom. Many producers, however, do not seem to realise that a heavier baconer is required for the United Kingdom market (140-160 lb. carcase weight) than for the local market (110-120 lb. carcase weight). The Commonwealth Government was endeavouring through the Australian Meat Board to educate producers to the requirements of the United Kingdom matket in pre-war years with the use of export baconer competitions, and these have been resumed.

A uniform system of grading and differentia& payments according to grades should be introduced for the local as well as the export trade. During the War years, the Commonwealth Government took steps to achieve this, but at present lacks the necessary Constitutional power to implement such a scheme. If introduced, the pig producer would have a further incentive to improve the quality of his product. Far greater uniformity of type could also be achieved if a systematic approach was made from the breeding angle. At present there are quite marked variations in the characteristics of a given breed as between different districts. The characteristics of a breed should be more carefully maintained by selection and culling. In addition, the establishment of further progeny-testing stations would enable the selection of breeding stock to be placed on a more scientific basis.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY 23

3. CONSUMPTION. 3. 1. Domestic Standards and Trends.

Consumption of bacon and ham in Australia since 1929-30 has fluctuated between 10 lb. and 12 lb. per head, without showing any definite upward or downward trend. Fluctuations in consumption parallel the corresponding variations in production of bacon and ham. Data relating to consumption of bacon and ham and of pork are recorded in Table 27 and presented graphically in Figure 6.

On the other hand, pork consumption rose steadily from 6.00 lb. per headin 1929-30 toapeakof 10.28 lb. perheadin 1936-37. Subsequently the trend was downwards to 7.5 lb. per head at the outbreak of war, as a result of decreased production and an improved United Kingdom market. Later figures published by the Commonwealth Statistician have recently been amended in order to separate civilian and Service consumption. It will be noted that the amended figures also include bacon trimmings. On this basis, average consumption for the last three pre-war years totalled 10.4 lb. per head. In 1943 consumption was still high at 9.0 lb.. when the ban on the slaughter of light-weight pigs was introduced. By 1945 consumption had been reduced to 4.9 lb., including bacon trimmings, pork sausages and special issues for certain institutions. Since 1945, an increase in per capita consumption is apparent, although it must be noted that the 7.3 lb. per head for 1946-47 includes pork consumed by the Armed Forces in Australia. Actual consumption by civilians may well prove to be lower than the 1946 figure.

With high levels of income and employment in the immediate future consumption of pig-meats in Australia is expected to reach an all-time "high" when rationing is removed.

3.2. OVERSEAS STANDARDS AND TRENDS. As a result of heavy imports of bacon and ham in the years prior to

193 3, consumption of pig-meat in the United Kingdom increased markedly. Subsequent restrictions on imports reduced the consumption figure from 5 1 lb. per head in 1932 to 43 lb. per head in 1934, and consumption remained at this level for the remaining pre-war years.

A similar trend is to be observed for Canada, as shown below, while for Australia there was a steady upward trend during the pre-war period. In the United States, consumption was declining between 1932 and 1935, and then remained steady at 55 lb. per head in 1936 and 1937. The .estimated consumption of pig-meat in certain countries is recorded on a lb. pen head basis in the following table:-

Countries 1930 -United Kingdom ( a ) 42

Canada Australia (c) New Zealand (a) United Btates Germany Prance Argentina (b) Belgium Czechoslovakia Poland Denmark Netherlands

84 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY *

(a) Includes edible offal. Subject t o revision. (b) In city of BuenoS Aires. (c) Pork, bacon and hams. Twelve months ending 30th June of yeat shown. (d) Year ending 31st March following that stated. The consumption of pork, bacon and hams was officially estimated at 20 lb. in 1934 @ and 18 lb. in 1935. (e) Not available.

Source: Imperial Economic Committee-Reports on Meat 193 7 and 193 8.

It will be seen that consumption of pig-meats varies greatly between countries, depending on the volume of production within each country, a traditional habit, and the relative pricts of pig-meat and other meats. The chief pig-meat consuming countries prior to the war were Germany, Denmark, Canada, the United States and the Netherlands.

4. MARKETING AND PRICE.

4. 1. Australian Market Prices.

Pig breeding data prepared by the Chief Piggery Instructor of the New South Wales Department of Agriculture is contained in Table 29. As with other types of livestock, there are marked seasonal variations in pig and pig-meat prices, which are a reflection of the volume of marketings from month to month. Pigs do not reach a marketable weight at any specificd season, as a result of a definite breeding schedule, as is the case with f ~ r lambs. Therefore, a fairly even distribution of marketing5 throughout the 9

year would be expected. However, the pig breeding schedule on dairy farms is arranged so that the period of growth of the pig coincides with the period of plentiful milk supply.

* As a result of this, marketings are more pronounced from November

to March and the average price is correspondingly deflated during these months. Conversely between June and September the prices are above the average, and help to meet the additional cost to the producer of holding pigs over for a longer period, with the possible necessity of buying additional supplementary feed.

Tables 3 0 to 35 list the average metropolitan market prices of pigs in each State according to grades from 1926-27 to 1939-40. These prices are recorded graphically in Figures 7 and 8 for baconers and porkers respectively. Unfortunately, as a war-time measure, the collection of these data by State Statisticians was abandoned, so that comparable prices are not available after 1939-40. However, a schedule of pig prices at Melbourne

'auctions prepared by the Victorian Department of Agriculture does give monthly pig prices up to April, 1943, and some idea of the war-time increasc can be obtained from this source. These prices are recorded quarterly in Table 36.

Further evidence of war-time increases in pig-meat prices is provided in the following table, which records average prices in pence per lb. of good to prime baconers at Homebush saleyards, Sydney. The figures recorded are averages of weekly quotations and show the average upper and lower limits of the price ranges.

I

I m G

4 0

% g . * ,a , ,$!g3 l 53:: 9 gk;;: I !3 E X V e 3 8 & 2

W

jokltr,. j2i;d

I 0

m o x n n <X I .. R", 0' 1

V1 "h 0, n - I

r\\O n\ n

0' '

X% m l

W b

5.7

N F m\ 8r &C., " i' 0 m - " 'i' m 0 ( V C \

,0' ' T- E U 0

6 I

% " B 2

kl

FlGULE 7. AVELAGL METAOPOLITAI PIICES OF )LIME BACOWEkS - AUSTAALIA BY SIATLS

VIC. KS.W. - - - S.A - - - - - - - W - - -

w.A.--- --- Q --7-

TAS. ------

0 L 1926-27 1927-28 Btd-C9 1x9-30 1930-31 1931-3L 1932.33 1933-34 1934-31 1935.36 1936-37 I931-36 1938-39 1939-90

S E A S O N

PIG NUMtEhS IN HUNDRED IHOUSANDS

PIG PRICES IN POUNDS

34 AUSTlALIAH PIG POtULATlON (IN MILLIONS)

FIGURE 12. - AVERAGE PRICE PAID BY WHOLESALE SLAUGHTERERS FOR HOGS UNITED STATES - 1895 - 1945

SOURCE: UNITED STATES B.A.E. THE LIVESTOCK AND WOOL SITUATION JAN. - FE0 1946

0 ~ " " " ' ~ " " " " ~ " " ~ " " ~ " ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1895 l900 1905 19 10 191s 1920 102s 1910 ISSS I940 0 1% m50

Y E A R


Year From To

1937 5 .82 6 .92 1938 6 .05 7 .44 1939 5 .97 7.27 '

1940 6.795 7 . 7 l941 5 . 7 9 6 .92 . 1942 7 .97 9 .13 1943 8 .18 10.06 1944 8.35 9 .73

to 1st July, 1945 8 . 2 9 9 .57 Source: Commonwealth Controller of Meat Supplies.

Annual average prices f q p r i m e baconers and for porkers have been calculated for Australia from the six tables recording average annual metropolitan prices for each State. In Figure 9 these prices are graphed and compared with the pig population of Australia as at 31st December of each year.

Falling prices for baconers and. porkers in the late 'twenties were accompanied by a gradual increase in the pig populati&. This downward trend in prices was arrested in 193 1-32 and price! rose slightly in 1932-33 and 1933-34, while pig numbers declined. The increase in pig numbers during the next two years fill not have the expected depressing effect nn pig prices, which remained at a fairly stable level. This was almost wholly the result of a rapid increase in pig-meat exports to the United Kingdom, which prevented increased pig breeding from glutting the local market.

From 1935 to 1937, wheat prices rose and the trend in pig numbers was downwards until the'year 1938-39, when pig prices showed an upward trend. Pig prices remained at this level in 1939-40, the upward trend of previous years having been arrested by a marked increase in numbers, which accompanied low prices for wheat.

The consideration of price experience emphasises the marked negative correlation existing between the pig population and the price of pigs. A similar negative correlation exists for pig numbers and wheat prices, and is &own graphically in Figure 10. The graph of wheat prices is based on a schedule of wheat prices on the Sydney market, prepared by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture, and recorded in Table 37.

4, 2. PRICE SPREAD FROM PRODUCER T O CONSUMER.

The following figures, prepared by the Division of Marketing, New South Wales Department of Agriculture, show the average "spread" between the return to the producer and the price paid by the consumer for pork. They were prepared in January, 1941, for a Marketing and Distribution Conference held in Sydney in March the same year.

cf; S. d. S. d.

Total Cost to Consumer 1 4 7 Retail Butcher's Expenses

Cost to Retail Butcher . 2 12 8- and Profits.

CM to Wholesale Butcher 2 7 3) Butcher's Ex- penses and Profits.

Net Realisation by Farmer 2 3 2) l F a e ' 8 Markding Costs.

38 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG ENDUSTRY

The figures are based on a porker of good quality weighing 70 lb.. dressed weight. It is to be noted, in addition, that the wholesale butcher also receives a small return from offals amounting to approximately 9d per carcase. In this schedule the retail butcher's margin amounts to 21d per lb. The farmer's marketing costs of 4 /1 were based on the following cost schedule :-

S. d. Cartage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 0

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yard dues 6 . . . . . . Receiving, drafting, yarding 3

Agent's commission, 5 % . . . . . . . . 2 4 - 4 1

4. 3. OVERSEAS MARKET PRICES.

4. 3. 1. United Kingdom Market Prices.

The bulk of Australia's exportable surplus of pig-meats finds its way to the United Kingdom market in the form of frozen pork or bacon and ham. As a result, price fluctuations on that market are of major importance to the Australian producer and exporter. As was the case with most agricultural products, prices of pig-meats and meat in general declined after 1930. Supplies and prices of pig-meats showed a much greater variation than those of other meats. From 1932 until the outbreak of war there was a general improvement in the prices of pork and bacon and ham, in spite of minor downward fluctuations in certain years. This was true for both local and imported supplies.

Average wholesale prices of pork at Birmingham, Leeds, London and Manchester for British 1st quality and New Zealand frozen 1st quality are recorded in Table 38. It will be observed that, on the average, local fresh pork commanded a premium of 2d per lb. over New Zealand frozen pork. Monthly average prices of bacon at Bristol and London for British Wiltshire 1st quality and Danish 1st quality are given in Table 39 for the years 1932 to 1938.

Wholesale weekly prices for Australian pork at Smithfield market for the period July, 193 6 to June, 1939, are presented graphically in Figure 11. During this period there was an increase in price for light-weight carcases, and it will be seen that the price-spread between light-weight and heavy- weight carcases has increased. For the year ended 30th June, 1937, prices ranged from 52d. to 7Bd. per lb., with little margin between the different weight classes.

A general upward trend in prices is to be observed during the year, apart from the customary three months period of high prices between December and February.

In the year ended 30th June, 1938, prices were generally higher than in 1937, prices of 60-80 lb. carcases ranging from 72d to 8d. Prices of all grades were fairly even, except in the four winter months, when a margin of up to I d developed between the lightest and heaviest grades. For the year ended 30th June, 1939, there was a price range from 6fd to 72d for light-weight carcases. Prices for heavy-weight carcases were generally lower


than for the previous year, and during the winter months there was a price differential of l td-2d per lb. between light-weight and heavy-weight carcases.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations quotes the following prices as those being paid to exporting countries for Wiltshire sides in June, 1947. The prices quoted are in pence per lb. sterling on a n P.0 B. export country basis for first quality bacon.

Australia . . . . . . . . 10.0

New Zealand . . . . . 8.5 (a)

Denmark . . . . . . . . 17.3

Canada . . . . . . . . . . 16.2

(a) This does not include payments made by the United Kingdom to the New Zealand Stabilisation Fund.

4. 3. 2. United Kingdom-Australia Meat Agreement.

Under the United Kingdom-Australia Agreement, the Government of the United Kingdom agreed to buy the total quantity of pig-meat made available by Australia during the period commencing 1st October, 1944, and ending on 30th September, 1946. In addition, further quantities would be bought in the p'eriod after 30th September, 1946, and up to 30th September, 1948, the quantities to be determined as a result of negotiations between representatives of the two Governments. I t was provided that these negotiations must be undertaken not later than 31st May and concluded not later than the 3 1st August in the years 1946 and 1947 respectively, regarding supplies during the years commencing on 1st October, 1946, and 1947 respectively. The United Kingdom Government agreed to take Australia's total exportable surplus of pig-meats during the period commencing 1st October, 1946, and ending 30th September, 1947. A similar agreement has been reached for the 1947-48 meat year.

The current schedule of prices contained in the agreement in relation to pig-meats is recorded in the following table, in which prices are F.O.B. in pence per lb. sterling, in London.

Porker and Porker Cuts 1st Quality 2nd Quality

Carcases 60/120 lb. 8 5/16 7 15/16 Ful l sides 30/60 lb. 8 5/16 7 15/16 Headless sides 25/55 lb. 9 5/16 8 15/16 Choppers 180 lb. and over 54 Headless chopper sides 86 lb. and over 54 - Legs long cut 12 13/16 12 9/16 Legs ham trimmed 14 13%

Bacon and Baconer Cuts 1st Quality 2nd Quality Scalded Singed Scalded Singed

Carcases 121/200 lb. 8 5/16 8 3 7 5/16 8 Headless carcases 111/190 lb. 9 5/16 93 8 15/16 9 Headless sides 56/95 lb. 9 5/16 93 8 15/16 9 Wiltshire sides 50/90 lb. 10 l 0 1/16 93 9 11/16

It has been recently announced that the agreement has been extended until 3 0th September, 1 95 0.

ECONOZWTC: OTJTLDOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

4. 3. 3. United Kingdom-New Zealand Meat Agreement.

Under the Meat Agreement with New Zealand, the United Kingdom Government agreed to purchase the quantity of pig-meat specified in tbe following extract:-

"During the first two years of the Agreement, i.e., up to 30th September, 1946, the quantity of pig-meat to be purchased by the United Kingdom Government shall be the total available supplies in New Zealand as defined. The quantities to be purchased by the United Kingdom Government in the third year of the Agreement shall be the subject of discussions between the two Governments, which shall be started before 1st January, 1946. In the light of these discussions, and with due regard to representations which may then be made by the New Zealand Government in the third year, the quantities for the fourth year will be similarly determined following on discussions started before 1st January, 1947." The agreement was subsequently extended to September, 1950.

The current prices contained in the agreement are recorded in the following table, in which prices are F.O.B. in pence per lb. sterling, in London :-

l Carcoses Headless Headless Wiltshire Carcases Sides Sides

Boconers ond Curing Cuts

1st Quality unsinged 1st Quality singed 2nd Quality unsinged 2nd Quality singed

1st Quality singed 2nd Quality singed Singed

8 8 7/16 8 7/16 9 8 1/16 83 84 9 1/16 7 11/16 8 1/16 8 1/16 8 11/16 74 S - S 3/16 S 3/16 84

Spencen Middles Gammons Flitches

8 1/16 9 5/16 12 11/16 - 74 9 12 5/16 - - - 8 1/16

l Full Sides Choppers Choppers Sides Shoulders Boston l Bone@ Heads Off Square Cut Butts

1st Quality 8 5 5/16 63 '8 7/16 64 7 5/16 2nd Quality 7 11/16 - - 8 1/16 5 5/16 7

Flitches Ribs Legs 1 Unsinged Backs (Long Cut)

8 92 11 13/16

These prices are the original 1939-40 contract rates plus an increase of 33Y3%.

4. 3. 4. United Kingdom-Canada Meat Agreement.

The Anglo-Canadian contract which was to have terminated in 1947, has been recently extended to cover the years 1948 and 1949. Prices under the agreement operate for calendar years and the 1948 price for Grade 1 Wiltshire sides a t seaboard is £ 9 per cwt., compared with &7/5 / - per cwt. under the 1947 contract. Canada is to supply 195 million lb. of bacon

J!SOWOHH7 OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG mDUSTRY 41

during 1948 compared with a 1947 target of 350 million lb. and actual deliveries of 25 0 million lb.

Wces for l 9 4 9 will be negotiated at the end of this year, but the Uai@d Kin* has guarapteed that they will be not less than the 1948 pde. Prices will actually be agreed to before the end of 1948 in order to mailamin tlte praper relationship with grain prices prior to the commence- ment 06 the new contract year.

4. 3. 5. Market Prices in the United States of America.

Average prices paid by wholesale slaughterers for hogs in the U.S.A. are available on a comparable basis from 1895 to 1945, and are presented graphically in Figure 12. Prior to World War I, there was an upward trend in prices in spite of minor fluctuations. Prices rose rapidly after 1 9 15 and kached a peak in 1919, after which there was a rapid decrease until 1921. From 1921 to 1930 the trend in prices continued to be gradually upwards in accordance with the trend prior t o World War I. During the early 'thirties, prices fell away suddenly and were deprersed until 1935 when they had again reached the 1930 level. With uncertain international conditions in the late 'thirties, pig prices again fell, but recovered in 1941 and subsequent years. T h e recovery during the war years was due to an increased demand as a result of Service requirements, and to subsidies introduced by the U.S. Government to stimulate pig-meat production. It is t o be noted that the average price in 1945 did not reach the peak figures experienced during World War I.

Prices paid to producers for hogs in the United States are recorded in the following table for selected years within the period 19 10 to 1947. Corresponding price index numbers, using the 1910-14 average price as a base, are recorded in the same table.

Year Price per cwt. Index Numbers (dollars) (1910-14: 100)

1910-14 7.29 100 1917 14.30 196 1918 16.28 223 1919 16.66 229 1920 13.06 179 1926 11.84 162 1935 8.75 120 1936 9 .34 128 1937 9.73 133 1938 7 .80 107 1939 6 .31 87 1940 5.42 74 1941 9 .14 125 1942 13.12 180 1943 13.83 190 1944 13.12 180 1945 14.06 193 1946(a) 17.50 240 1947 (a) 24.50 336

Note: The 1947 price is equivalent t o 18.26d. per lb. in Aus- tmlian currency.

(a) Price per 100 lb. Source: Farm Economics-February, 1946.

42 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUS-

4. 4. MARKETING ORGANISATION AND REGULATIONS.

The marketing of pigs in Australia is usually carried out in conjunction with other livestock at metropolitan and country marketing centres. In the country markets, the chief buyers are representatives of export firms, who receive a certain amount of competiton from local butchers. In addition. local farmers compete for stores and weaners, which are re-marketed a t a later date as fat stock. In the metropolitan markets, exporters, bacon curers and wholesale butchers operate.

Farmers having pigs for sale can dispose of them in one of three main ways:-

(1) sell at a livestock auction through an agent; (2) sell direct to an exporter or bacon curer; (3) if he has sufficient pigs of similar quality, have them slaughtered

and forwarded on consignment to the United Kingdom. In each State of the Commonwealth there are central metropolitan

abattoirs which are operated as public utilities, and at which wholesalers can have their pigs killed at a fixed charge. In addition, there are meat works in some capital cities which are controlled by private operators. In the country centres works are owned by private operators and CO-

operative companies. In a number of cases, licensed slaughter-houses are operated in conjunction with bacon factories.

There were 92 bacon factories in Australia at the beginning of 1943, 88 of which were operating. The distribution between States was as follows:

New South Wales . . . . . . . . 3 1 ( 1 out of production) Victoria . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Queensland . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 ( 1 out of production)

. . . . . . . . . . South Australia 13 Western Australia . . . . . . . . 9 ( 2 out of production) Tasmania . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

. . . . . . . . . . . . T O T A L 9 2 - - Even though the production of bacon and ham during the war

years was well above the pre-war average, factories were not working t o capacity, and supplies had to be distributed according t o a pre- determined quota.

4. 4. 1. T h e Pig Meat Acquisition Scheme.

During the three years 1937-38 to 1939-40 the number of pigs slaughtered in Australia remained fairly constant at approximately 1,900,000 per annam. Rising costs of production, depressed prices and uncertainty in regard to future markets faced the pig industry during the year ended June, 1942, and as a consequence, there was a tendency for producers to kill off breeding stock and leave the industry. As a result, pig-meat production was at a high level in 1941-42, but exports had declined markedly, due to the fact that the United Kingdom had indicated unwillingness to continue taking baconer type carcases.

Towards the end of 1942 the United Kingdom again agreed t o accept baconer carcases, while at the same time demands for meat for 6 e Australian and Allied Services became considerable, I t was evident


that there would be very heavy demands in the future on Australian meat production, and it would be necessary for pig-meat production, t o be stimulated as one measure towards meeting these demands.

Prices for pig-meat, particularly for porker types up to 120 lb., rose considerably towards the end of 1942, but i t was felt that these high prices did not provide the measure of stability which the producer required in order to undertake expanded pig-meat production.

As a consequence, the Commonwealth Government gave consideration to the question of introducing a Pig-meat Plan, which would ensure to the producer a satisfactory return over a period of time, and which would adequately compensate him for the costs of production, thus stimulating the increased production necessary to meet demands.

(a) The Pig-meat Plan.

T h e original Pig-meat Plan, which was to be implemented in February, 1943, was deferred as a result of the disallowance of the Regulations governing the constitution of the Australian Meat Industry Commission.

Continued representations were made regarding the necessity to provide a measure of stability for the pig industry, and in June, 1943, a revised Pig-meat Plan was introduced. This plan was based on the original Pig-meat Plan, although there were certain alterations which i: was considered represented an improvement on the original. T h e price t o the producer under the plan represented 8d. per lb, chilled dressed weight net delivered at works, less freight to export ports, on first quality carcases weighing between 100 lb. and 180 lb.

T h e Ran did not include porkers, as the policy was to encourage the increased production of baconer pigs rather than pigs of the porker type. Actually, a ceiling price for pork of 10d. per lb. delivered re- tailer was implemented. This price, in some instances, represented a reduction on the current market prices for pork.

When the Pig-meat Plan was introduced, i t was pointed out that the price of 8d. per lb. was actually lower than the current prices in some States during the previous few months, but i t was higher than the average price paid over the previous three years. I t was considered that 8d. per lb. was satisfactory from the point of view of current levels of costs of production, and although i t reprezented a decrease in some instances on current market values, i t was felt that the guarantee of this price for two years would provide the measure of stability which was required to encourage increased production.

A further point which had to be taken into consideration in fixing the price at 8d. per lb. was that even at this figure a loss of approximately 14d. per lb. on all pig meats exported ( & 14,000 per 1 ,000 tons) would result.

Before describing the more important features of the Plan, i t is considered desirable to refer t o certain amendments which were made in September, 1943. In the first place, the urgency of the demands for pig- meats had increased beyond original expectations, and reports received on the effect of the guaranteed price of 8d. per lb. indicated that, while this price was probably adequate to stabilise production a t the existing level, i t did not, under existing conditions of shortage of man-power, materials and foodstuffs, provide sufficient inducement for the grower to


expand production. Consequently, i t was agreed that the price of first quality pigs be raised by Id. to 9d. per lb. and other grades amended accordingly. At the same time, the weight range for grades other than choppers was increased from the range 100-180 lb. to a range of 100-200 lb. This amendment was in response to continued reprejentations that many pigs between 180-200 lb. were just as suitable for conversion into bacon as many of the lower weight pigs. I t had been pointed out that any pigs under the 200 lb., which did not grade out as first quality, could be graded by the Commonwealth inspectors as second or third quality.

Prior to the foregoing amendments, the slaughter of pigs weighing under 100 lb. chilled dressed weight was prohibited as from 9th August, 1943. The purpose of this prohibition was to ensure that, wherever possible, pigs would be carried on to maximum marketable weights. It was appreciated that, in some instances, i t was impracticable for producers to carry their pigs on to weights in excess of 100 lb. because of factors such as:

(a) the unsuitability of the type of pigs reared and the inevitable time lag required to change over to production of baconer pigs.

(b) shortage of suitable foodstuffs in some dairying districts where adequate supplies of milk were not available.

Consequently, it was agreed to accept for export, and far reserves for the Services, pigs which dressed out between 8 2 lb. and 100 lb. chilled. However, in order to discourage this class of production, the Id. per lb. inc-ease did not apply to these pigs, but only to pigs over 100 lb.

As a further means of encouraging increased production of pig-meats, arrangements were made under which adequate quantities of wheat were made available to producers at a price of 3 /62 per bushel at purchaser's siding. Prior to this, the price of wheat had been on the basis of 4/- per bushel at cities.

(b) Features of the Pig-meat Plan.

1. The Plan provided for the acquisition by the Commonwealth Government of pig carcases weighing more than 100 lb. chilled weight on hooks, from operators who had been issued with a slaughtering license under the National Security (Meat Industry Control) Regulations. Only those carcases passed by the Commonwealth Meat Inspection Branch as At for human consumption, were acquired.

2. Compensation was paid to licensees in accordance with certain values which have been specified. These values were based on the priee of 9d. per lb. for first quality (and corresponding prices for other qualities), to which was added allowances for treatment and handling, charges for wrapping, freezing, and placing F.O.B. where necessary. T h e prices which were payable to producers by licensees under the Plan were:

1st Quality, 9d. per lb. chilled dressed weight (100 to 200 fb.). 2nd Quality, 8 td . per lb. chilled dressed weight (100 t o 200 lb.), 3rd Quality, 7d. per lb. chilled dressed weight (100 to 200 lb.). Over-fats, 69d. per lb. chilled dressed weight (100 t o 200 lb,). Choppers, 5d. per lb. chilled dressed weight (all weights). Less freight to nearest export port.


All carcases acquired by the Commonwealth Government which were sold to a licensee for disposal on his own account to the local trade, were sold by the Commonwealth at a price id . per lb. in excess of the cost of acquisition, plus the scheduled charges for treatment and handling. T h ~ s i d . per lb. was retained by the Commonwealth Government as a reserve to offset, in part, losses on export, costs of storage and other incidental expenses involved in the administration of the Plan.

Carcases which were not sold by the Commonwealth to licensees were delivered into store on account of the Controller of Meat Supplies, and held for export, canning or Service requirements.

3 . Operators and bacon factories licensed under the Pig-meat Plan agreed, as part of the conditions under which they were licensed, that they would treat pigs on a weight and grade basis on account of producers, at rates determined by the Commonwealth Prices Commissioner, within 4 8 hours of delivery of the pigs to a registered establishment, and they would arrange to dispose of all carcase pig-meat, treated by them on account of producers, in accordance with the terms and conditions governing the acquisition of the carcases by the Commonwealth Government.

4. All carcases acquired by the Commonwealth under the acquisition order were, unless otherwise determined by the Controller of Meat Supplies,, directed to consumption through existing trade channels.

5. The Plan was to operate at least until 30th June, 1945 (two years from inception) with 12 months' notice of termination.

(c) Modification of the Pig-meat Plan.

As a result of representations made to the Commonwealth by the New South Wales Government, a further modification of the Plan was introduced. In view of the adverse seasonal conditions and the attendant difficulties in obtaining adequate supplies of feed, the minimum weight of porkers for export and for the Services was reduced from 8 2 lb. to 70 lb. chilled dressed weight, as from 5th March, 1945. Accordingly, pigs weighing 70-100 lb. were,to be paid for at the rate of 8d. per lb. instead of 9d.

Another temporary amendment was made with effect from 11th June, 1945, in consequence of the continued p m feed position. A new minimum weight of 60 lb. dressed chilled weight was introduced. T h e amendment also provided for a price of 9d. per lb. for all 1st quality pigs between 60-200 lb. It was also desired to reduce the maximum weighc range from 200 lb. t o 180 lb., but this was deferred until 1st May 1946. The Plan was terminated on 3 1st December, 1946, when the National Security Regulations lapsed.

(d) Long-range Implications of the Pig-meat Plan.

One effect of the Pig-meat Plan has been to change the composition of pig-meat production from a predominance of porkers to a predominance of baconers.

I t is considered that the change to baconer type pigs has been in the best interests of the pig industry for the following reasons:

(a) a good baconer pig can be carried on to bacon weights or be used to produce excellent pork if killed at porker weights;


(b) the post-war export requirement is likely to be for pigs of baconer rather than porker types, and i t is likely that for some years there will be an outlet for baconers in excess of local requirements. Porkers, however, will be required for the local market ;

(c) the baconer pig is cheaper per lb. to rear. Good baconers may put on 14-2 lb. per day with no extra overhead, little extra labour and low feed cost per lb.

Reports from the United Kingdom indicate that the Australian baconer is preferred to the Canadian or United States product, but that on the other hand, baconers exported to the United Kingdom during the war years tended to be over-fat. It was considered, however, that by

I reducing the maximum weight under the Pig-meat Plan from 200 lb. t o 180 lb., this tendency would be arrested.

l Average carcase weights of porkers and baconers in lb. in 1943-44 to 1946-47 are compared with the corresponding figures for the t'nrze pre-war years in the following table:

(a) Porkers.

Year N.S.W. Victoria Q'land S. Aust. W. Aust. Tar. C'wealth

1936-37 79 79 73 80 76 - 75 1937-38 87 82 81 92 78 86 81 1938-39 88 83 86 96 77 83 84 1943-4-1 108 108 98 - - 99 1944-45 106 113 - 52 - 88 1945-46 105 105 85 - - 99 1946-47 99 100 - 87 - - 99

(b) Baconers.

1938-39 139 131 122 101 148 132 126 1943-44 142 155 145 150 132 - 146 1944-45 142 66 151 - - 135 1945-46 - - - - - 1946-47 - - - 144 - - 144

Source: Australian Meat Boa~d Reports.

4. 4. 2. Regulation of Supplies of Pig-meats entering the United Kingdom.

The bacon market in the United Kingdom is highly organised and in the pre-war years it was found that the regulation of supplies was necessary. Quantitative regulation of bacon and hams was begun on 23rd November, 1932. Voluntary agreements were made with the eleven principal foreign supplying countries for a 15% reduction for 3 months commencing 23rd November, 1932. Further reductions were made during 1933 until 10th November, when a reduction of 16% in foreign supplies was effected by an Order under the Agricultural Marketing Act, 1933. Initially, annual supplies on the market were stabilised at a figure based on the annual average for the five year period 1926 to 1930. From this total figure, a quota was first allotted to home bacon curers on the basis of the number of pigs which producers contracted to supply to curers. Empire countries

' ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOE THE PIG INDUSTRY 47

next received a quota based largely on estimates of quantities available for export to the United Kingdom, provided that the rate of expansion was comparable with the expansion in home production. The balance of total requirements was allotted to foreign countries in proportion to their previous exports to the United Kingdom. This method of regulation decreased the supply of bacon available and led to an increase in prices. This was the system of regulation in force at the outbreak of World War 11.

4. 4. 3. Overseas Freight Rates.

In 1929 the Oversea Shipping Representatives Association was given the power to make contracts with all shippers. Subsequently, a co- operative association between producers, shippers and shipowners, the Australian Oversea Transport Association, was established and all freight agreements had to be carried out through this body. Existing freight rates could only be varied by shipowners with the approval of this association.

A schedule of freight rates for all meats was established in July, 1937, and was to operate for a period of three years without revision. The only difference between this schedule and previous rates was a reduction of %d. per lb. on chilled beef. The following table gives a comparison of freight rates in pence sterling per lb. from different countries to the U.K. for the year 1937.

Class of Meot From Australia From N.Z. From Argentha From S. Africa

Mutton .Q25 .793 .582 .375 Lamb 1.125 .g29 .582 .375 Beef-Frozen .694 .645 .582 .h62 Beef-Chilled .g37 .810 .640 .g19 Pork .800 .645 .582 .750

Source: Australian Meat Board-Second Annual Report.

It will be seen that Argentina has a definite advantage over Australia, due to its proximity to the-United Kingdom. Although the voyage from New Zealand is of approximately the same duration as from Australia, the freight on pork from New Zealand is 0.155d. per lb. less than on the same product shipped from Australia.

4. 4. 4. The Australian Meat Board.

The Australian Meat Board was appointed under the Meat Export Control Act of 1935-38, and consisred of 18 members representing stock producers, meat exporting companies, co-operative organisations exporting mutton and lamb, publicly-owned abattoirs and freezing works and the Commonwealth Government.

The Board was given powers to control and regulate the Australian export trade in meat; to advertise Australian meat overseas; to make recommendations with regard to quality standards and grading of meat for export, and to take any necessary action to improve these; to advise the Government on the meat export programme; to arrange contracts for shipping and insurance, and to encourage by disbursements of

funds, activities, experiments and investigations tending to advance the meat export industry.

The Board was financed by levies received under the Meat Export Charges Act, 1935,, and could recommend that any meat be exempt from

=

this levy. The levies on pig-meats were as follows:- Pork: Carcases, Id. each: pieces, Id. per 100 lb. or portion thereof. Bacon and Hams: Id. per 100 lb. or portion thereof. Under the Meat Export Control Act (Section 17) the Board had

power to issue export licenses, and regulations were drawn up under this power and operated from 1st July, 1936.

In August, 1946, two new Acts were passed amending the previous legislation concerned with the constitution and powers of the Australian Meat Board. The first Act provided for the transfer of power, authorities and functions conferred upon and exercised by the Commonwealth Con- troller of Meat Supplies and the Meat Canning Committee, t o the Aus- tralian Meat Board during the continuance of the National Security Act and the Regulations thereunder.

The Second Act reconstituted and extended the powers and functions granted to the Australian Meat Board under the original Act.

The reconstituted Australian Meat Board has now taken over the powers and functions of Meat Control and of the former Australian Meat Board.

.I

4. 4. 5. War-time Control.

On 9th September, 1939, the United Kingdom Government requisi- tioned all meat supplies, whether home-produced or imported, and from that date agents for Australian pig meats in the United Kingdom ceased to function.

On 1st October, 1939, a meat contract between the United Kingdom and Australian Governments came into operation and covered Australia's anticipated exportable surplus of pig-meats. Contracts were renewed and revised during the war years.

In October, 1942, under the National Security (Australian Meat Industry Commission) Regulations, an authority called the Australian Meat Industry Commission was constituted. Subsequent to its first meeting, the Minister for Commerce and Agriculture, upon the recom- mendation of the Commission, appointed State Meat Advisory Committees. However, the Regulations were disallowed in the Senate and in March, 1943, under the National Security (Meat Industry Control) Regulations, a Controller of Meat Supplies was appointed.

A meat Industry Advisory Committee was appointed in July, 1943, under Regulation 9 of the National Security (Meat Industry Control) Regulations. This was a committee of producers, departmental officers, meat exporters and meatworks representatives. The chairman of the committee was the Commonwealth Controller of Meat Supplies, whom the committee advised on all phases of the meat industry. State Meat Advisory Committees were also appointed.

In the first years of the war, the main problem had been the dis- y?sal of surplus production owing to shortages of shipping, but with thc entry of Japan into the war, the problem facing the Meat Industry

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PTG INDUSTRY 49

Advisory Committee was that of increasing production and obtaining as large an exportable surplus as possible.

With this end in view, meat rationing was introduced in January, 1944, and this measure, together with the imposition of wholesale and retail quotas, reduced over-all civilian consumption of meat by about 25%.

As from 9th August, 1943, the slaughter and sale of pigs of dressed weight of 100 lb. or under was prohibited. With the implementation of the Pig-meat Acquisition Plan (See Section 4 . 3. 1 , for details) on 14th June, 1943, the Commonwealth Government acquired all pigs of

a dressed weight of 100 lb. or more at specified prices. Whereas in former years purchase agreements with the United King-

dom had been concluded from year to year, in 1945 a long-term purchase agreement was reached with the United Kingdom Government. Details of this Agreement are outlined in Section 4. 3. 2.

5. F U T U R E PROSPECTS FOR T H E PIG INDUSTRY.

5. 1 . CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS:

In previous sections of the report, reference has been made to the initial development 8f the industry as a side-line to the dairy industry. Moreover, it was stated that, with low wheat prices in the 'thirties, pig raising in association with wheat production increased in popularity. Within recent years, grain sorghum has tended to replace wheat to a certain extent in northern areas, the protein supplements in each case being mainly in the form of meat meal.

It seems apparent that in the future, the industry will become even more dependent upon grain as the basic feed, as a result of an ever- increasing tendency in some States to market wholemilk rather than to separate on the farm. The recent extension of milk zones has undoubtedly contributed in a small degree to the decline in pig-meat production, but a far more significant feature is the rapid expansion in the production of wholemilk products.

Since 1938-39 the actual percentage of milk used for butter production has decreased from 7 8 % to 6 3 % in 1946-47, and at the same time there has been an absolute reduction in the quantity utilised, from 925 million gallons to 671 million gallons. In other districts producers are encouraged to deliver wholemilk to butter factories where separation is carried out, the skim milk being either processed or fed to pigs at a central location.

When the price of wheat increased during the war years, i t was released t o pig producers at a low subsidised rate. Even after the subsidy was removed, producers were still able to obtain supplies of wheat at the home consumption price, which was appreciably below export parity. This pro- cedure is still adopted, but the home consumption price for wheat has bern raised to 6 / 3 bulk f.0.r. ports, which is equivalent t o 5/5 per bushel bulk a t sidings. Moreover, i t has also been announced that the local price will be adjusted in accordance with changes in production costs if this proves practicable.

This fact in itself should tend to prevent the future price of wheat from falling to the low levels experienced in pre-war years. The main- tenance of wheat prices at higher levels should also be assisted by the recently negotiated International Wheat Agreement. In view of the probability of


higher than pre-war wheat prices, and the existing relatively unlimited potential for the expansion of grain sorghum in northern areas, a further trend towards the use of grain sorghum as a basic pig feed can reasonably be expected.

The anticipated trend towards the utilisation of grain sorghum as a basic feed should in itself lead to a geographic redistribution of pig producing districts. There will be a tendency for pig raising to be concentrated in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where qrain sorghum can be produced most economically, rather than for the feed to be tlans- ported long distances. In areas where wholemilk is consumed as such, or where skimmed milk is processed, pig production can be expected to be of diminishing importance.

5. 2. PRODUCTION.

During the last fifty years, the pig population of Australia has varicd cyclically, the period of the cycle being of approximately five years duration. Until 1920, the average pig population during the cycle had remained at a fairly constant level, but after this year the average showed a definite upward trend. At the outbreak of World War 11, pig numbers had commenced to increase from a "low" in 1937 and this increase was accelerated during the early war years, a peak of 1,797,300 head being reached in March, 1940.

The number of pigs slaughtered annually increased up to 1936-37, reaching a level of approximately 2 million head, but decreased during the next two years. Slaughterings increased again after the outbreak of war and reached 2,593,900 head in 1941-42. By 1943-44, however, they had again fallen to the 1938-39 level, and although there was a slight recovery in 1944-45, the decline has since continued.

Production of pork increased by 110% in the last ten pre-war years. from 39 million lb. in 1929-30 to 83 million lb. in 1938-39, and the increase was continued during the war years, a peak of 130 million lb. being produced in 1941-42. Production of bacon and ham increased by 6 % during the last 10 pre-war years, from 7 0 million lb. i n 1929-30 to 7 4 million lb. in 1938-39, a greater increase occurring during the war years and a peak of 126 million lb. being reached in 1944-45.

The following factors and the interaction of these factors will bc the l chief determinants of the future level of pig meat production in Australia:

(a) the future price for pig meats, which is in turn dependent upon l

the availability of avenues of disposal; (b) the availability and future price of feed stuffs: (c) the standard of quality maintained, in-so-far as it affects the

development of additional markets and the price return to the producer;

(d) any improvement in the technique of management which would affect production costs.

When bacon and ham is reduced to a pork equivalent for each year, i t has been seen that the total production of pig-meats increased from 144.6 million lb. in 1929-30 to 194.6 million lb. in 1938-39. In other words, there was an increase of 3 4 % in total pig-meat production in the ten years ended 1938-39. In 1944-45 total pig-meat production reached a peak of

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY 5Z

284.5 million lb. and the average annual figure for the six war years was production figure of 284.5 million lb., which was recorded in 1944-45 that, in view of the move towards stabilisation of the industry, the peak sequel to the Pig-meat Acquisition Plan. Accordingly, i t could be argued under stabilised conditions, could be taken as the present level of pig-meat production in Australia. However, during 1945-46 there was a distinct decline in pig-meat production, and the figure quoted for 1946-47 production is approximately 230 million lb.

In pre-war years, when the price of wheat was abnormally low, i t became more economical to buy feed wheat than to grow the necessary supplementary feed. In addition, the price of feed wheat to the pig producer was kept at a low level during the war years by means of Government subsidies. As a result, pig producers, to a certain degree, got out of the habit of providing their own supplementary feed, and in other cases expanded production to such an extent that they can no longer provide an adequate supply of supplementary feed on the land which they have at their disposal. NOW that supplies of stock feed are inadequate, contraction of pig-meat production is inevitable. However, the present trend will be reversed if, as is probable, more producers make themselves self-sufficient as far as supplies of supplementary grain are concerned.

- During the war years, also, pig-meat production was expanded because further supplies of cheap feed in the form of garbage refuse from military camps was available in rural areas. With general demobilisation and the closing down of most war-time military establishments, a source of cheap feed has been removed, and producers who were able to expand production as a result of this source of feed, have now been forced to reduce the number of pigs carried.

In spite of the fact that pig numbers and pig-meat production must necessarily suffer a setback while the present stock feed shortage exists, it should be remembered that many pig producers have increased their capital outlay in expanding production during the war years. A large proportion of their money has been invested in improvements to and extension of piggeries and in the purchase of additional equipment. When such producers are forced to reduce their turnover, they still have to meet certain of these fixed costs, and so their costs of production per lb. of pig-meat are increased. It therefore seems reasonable to assume that, as soon as cereals become more plentiful, jhese producers will once again tend to increase production and so spread their fixed costs to a greater degree. Unless the shortage of grain feeds is prolonged, this temporary increase in cost of production and reduction in turnover should not be sufficient to drive many producers from the' industry. Those who find it necessary to get out would be the high cost marginal producers who would, in any event, be forced to cease production once prices started to come back from the war-time inflated level.

The average annual figure for total pig-meat production during the war years was 256 million lb., and it could be argued that production .vvould

V return to this level once the feed shortage was overcome. However, i t should be remembered that since 1943, and until quite recently, there has been a prohibition on the slaughter of light-weight pigs, and that pigs which normally would have been marketed as porkers have been carried on to baconer weights.

V Also, with a return to 'normal trading conditions, even baconer carcases will tend to be marketed at lighter weights. In view of these additional facts, i t would appear that acceptance of the figure of 256 million lb. as the present

Q ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

"normal" level of production would be rather optimistic. In the subsequent sections, therefore, the present level of total pig-meat production will be taken as 230 million lb., which approximates to the 1946-47 level.

The corresponding figure for pork production will then be approximately 80 million lb. and for bacon and ham 100 million lb.

5. 3. CONSUMPTION.

Consumption of pork in Australia has increased from an average of 4.11 lb. per head for the seven years ended 1920-21 to an average of 8.76 lb. per head for the five years ended 1938-39. Over the last ten pre-war years, consumption per head rose steadily from 6.00 lb. in 1929-30 to a peak of 10.28 lb. in 1936-37 and then fell away to 7.55 lb. in 1938-39. The downward trend continued during the first two war years, then tended to recover with a general increase in the spending power of the community. With the introduction of the Pig-meat Plan and the ban on the slaughter of light-weight pigs, the increase was arrested and a further downward trend in consumption followed,

It will be seen that the depression years had little effect on pork consumption, and that the marked reduction in consumption in the last two pre-war years was in all probability a result of increased exports to the United Kingdom, coupled with a decrease in production. Accordingly, it would be safe to assume that the over-all increase in per capita consumption of pork of 25% during the ten pre-war years ended 1938-39 was the result of an increase in the community's desire to eat pork, and that a •

similar increase in per capita consumption could be expected during the next ten years.

There have been only minor fluctuations in the per capita consumptioh of bacon and ham since World War I, and there seems to be no valid reason why any significant change in consumption should be expected during the next decade. Therefore, i t is assumed that the consumption of bacon and ham during the next ten years will be at the same rate as for the five pre-war years ended 1938-39, that is, 10.5 lb. per head. This figure, then, will be taken to represent the per capita consumption of bacon and hqm in Australia in 1956.

By 1956, an increase of 25 '7'0 over the pre-war average consumption figure is visualised for pork. The average per capita consumption figure for pork during the five years ended 1938-39 was 8.75 lb. Therefore, the estimated per capita consumption of pork in 1956 will be 10.95 lb., that is, approximately l l lb.

In order to estimate the total consumption of pig-meats in 1956, some allowance must be made for the increase in population which will have occurred by that time. I t is expected that within the next ten years the population of Australia will have increased by one million, as a result of a natural increase of 700,000 people and an increase due to immigration of 300,000. In other words, the population of Australia can be expected to have reached 8,500,000 by 1956.

L

Applying the estimated 1956 per capita consumption figures to this population estimate, the following results are obtained for total consumption in that year:-

Total consumption of pork in 1956-93.5 million lb. Total consumption of bacon and ham in 1956-89.25 million lb.


In order to compare these figures with pig-meat production, it is more convenient to combine them and to obtain a single figure for total consumption of pig-meats. For this purpose, bacon and ham can be converted to a pork equivalent by using the fact that 2 lb. (cured weight) of bacon and ham are approximately equal t o 3 lb. (carcase weight) of pork. A consolidated consumption figure for pig-meat, expressed as a pork equivalent, of approximately 227 million lb. is obtained.

Because of the price factor, pig-meats are regarded as a luxury rather than as a basic food in Australia. Consequently, a reduction in the price of pork compared with other meats, due for example, to an improvement in the technique of pig-meat production, or, on the other hand, a general improvement in the income of the community, which could result from the present policies aimed at full employment, could lead to an increase in consumption beyond the estimate. I t is therefore maintained that the estimate of 227 million lb. can be treated as a conservative estimate of 1956 consumption.

5 . 4. EXPORT TRADE.

5. 4. 1. United Kingdom Market: I I

The pig population of the United Kingdom in June, 1947 was 1.6 million compared with 4.4 million in June, 1939. Although this is a proportionately greater reduction than in the case of cattle or sheep, i t is

* largely offset by the rapidity with which pig numbers can be increased under favourable feed and market conditions. In fact, United Kingdom authorities anticipate that domestic pig-meat production will return to the pre-war level, and perhaps exceed this level, before any appreciable recovery in beef and sheep meat production is evident.

Australia's interest in the United Kingdom pig-meat market is primarily limited to the supply of frozen uncured baconer carcases for subsequent curing in United Kingdom bacon factories. In this regard the following factors will determine the extent of our future market in the United Kingdom :

(1) the estimated future consumption of pig-meats in the United Kingdom ;

(2 ) the extent to which the demand for bacon is met by imports of bacon, as this will determine the demand for home-cured bacon;

( 3 ) the extent t o which United Kingdom producers can fulfil the demand for baconer carcases for curing in United Kingdom factories;

(4 ) the relative competitiue position of Australia, Argentina, and New Zealand in-so-far as i t affects Australia's share of the demand for imported frozen baconer carcases.

With high levels of income and employment, the total United Kingdom demand for pig-meats is expected to be appreciably above the pre-war level. More than half the United Kingdom's requirements of bacon and ham were supplied by Denmark and the Netherlands prior to the war. However, with the grain shortage in Europe and high cost production in both countries, it is not anticipated that they will be able to take up their pre-war position for a number of years. In addition, Denmark seems anxious to spread her

$4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

markets as much as possible and to !his end has negotiated a trade agreement with the U.S.S.R.

Canada was the second largest supplier of bacon and ham to the United Kingdom in pre-war years and in 1945 had more than doubled her pre-war exports to this market. Canada could undoubtedly continue to supply a major section of the United Kingdom market in the future if a favourable relation between feed and bacon prices is maintained. However, it appears that the U.S.A. may offer a more attractive market, both geographically and financially. Pig numbers and pig-meat production have decreased in the United States since 1944, and production in 1948 will not be greatly in excess of the pre-war average. A continuation of this trend coupled with the steady upward trend in human population could lead the United States to the position of a pig-meat deficit nation. This will be largely determined by the future trend in the hog-corn price ratio, but in

l any event i t appears that future United Kingdom imports from Canada

l will be lower than pre-war.

On balance, i t seems reasonable to assume that at least no marked I increase in U.K. imports of the cured product will occur in the post-

l war era. This conclusion is substantiated by the United Kingdom's desire to balance her overseas payments, and the curing of imported pork in the United Kingdom rather than importing bacon should further this aim. I t can therefore be concluded that, with decreased imports of cured pig-meats and an increased consumption demand arising from high levels of income and employment, there will be a greater demand for baconer carcases for curing in the United Kingdom. The future potential of United

. Kingdom domestic production is therefore of prime importance.

In December, 1947, the United Kingdom's pig population was less than Z million, compared with slightly more than 4 million in 1940. Appreciable breeding up will therefore be necessary before pre-war pro-

b

duction can again be achieved. However, pig production can be expanded rapidly if adequate supplies of feed stuffs are available. Moveover, it has been authoritatively stated that pre-war production may possibly be achieved by 1952, and that expansion above this level is contemplated. Some of this expansion will undoubtedly be taken up in satisfying an increased local demand for pork, which will be associated with higher income levels. On the whole, however, i t seems that the United Kingdom will in future

1 continue to import greater quantities of frozen baconer carcases than in the pqe-war period. This conclusion is supported by the evident interest of the

I Overseas Food Corporation in ways and means of increasing pig-meat production in Australia.

l The future competitive position of the major exporters of frozen pig-meats must, therefore, be assessed. Prior to the war, Australia's main competitors on the United Kingdom frozen pork market were New Zealand and Argentina. Supplies from Australia and New Zealand have been dras6cally reduced since the out-break of war, although this has only been apparent in 1947 in the case of Australia. In 1947 New Zealand exported only one third of her pre-war annual average exports to the United Kingdom, and in an endeavour to reverse the downward trend in exports, increased the price of pork for export by &d. per lb. on 1st January, 1948.

Argentina achieved a most significant expansion in pig-meat production during the war years, but since the cessation of hostilities has shown a tendency to drop out of the export markets. In 1947, only 550,000 pigs


were slaughtered at registered works, compared with over 2 million in each of the years 1943-45. A reduction of this order could in itself be taken as an indication of a determined attempt to build up pig numbers. This may be the case, but in June, 1947, statistics place Argentina's pig population at 4.5 million head, compared with 8.8 million head in June, 1944, and 4.0 million head in 1937. The marked decline in pig population is attributed to rising feeding costs, and n o marked increase is expected while present high grain prices continue.

Pig-meat production in ~us t r a l i a has fallen off rapidlly during the last two years, and, as in the other chief exporting countries, is associated with the general shortage of feed and materials and an insufficient price margin for the finished product. The United Kingdom's apparent interest in Australia as a future long-term source of supply of pig-meats may well remove certain factors which are at present limiting production.

In the long run, it is considered that the United Kingdom market for frozen baconer carcases will be greater than in pre-war years. Competition can be expected, in the short-run, to be mainly confined to Aus- tralia and New Zealand. However, once the short-term grain shortage is overcome, it is anticipated that pig numbers will be built up rapidly in other producing countries and that competition for the expanded United Kingdom market will be keen. Increased production in Australia cannot be economically provided by high cost producers who would suffer on a return t o free market conditions. In addition, in order that Australia may take full advantage of the United Kingdom market, i t is essential that more attention be paid to the uniformity of export carcases. Carcase competitions which have been recently resumed by the Rustralian Meat Board should be a useful guide to producers in this direction.

Approaching the problem from a conservative angle, i t could be assumed that, in view of the marked expansion in production in other pig-meat exporting countries, the suggested improvements in quality would be necessary to enable Australia to maintain her pre-war level of pork exports to the United Kingdom during the next ten years. Using this approach, i t could be assumed that Australian exports of pork to the United Kingdom in 1956 would be at the pre-war level of 30 million lb.

Using a more liberal approach, it would be reasonable to assume that there would be the same absolute increase in pork exports t o the U.K. during the next ten years as there was during the last ten pre-war years. During the seven years ended 1938-39, pork exports to the United Kingdom increased from 6 million lb. to 3 0 million lb.. that is by 24 million lb. If a corresponding absolute increase is maintained over the next ten years. 5 4 million lb. of pork would be exported t o the United Kingd3m in 1956. I t should be remembered that this figure was exceeded in 1940-41 when Australia was able to export 73 million lb. of pork to the United Kingdom alone. The bulk of any additional exports would have to be in the form of frozen baconer carcases for curing in the United Kingdom.

In pre-war years, exports of bacon and ham to the United Kingdom were negligible, although there was an upward trend to 270,000 lb. in 1938-39. It does not appear that there is much hope of expanding this market in competition with countries such as Denmark, which, in view of its proximity to the United Kingdom market, can deliver the mild- cure bacon which consumers demand. In view of this, it is considered that there will

86 ECONOMfC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY

be only a negligible market for bacon and ham in the United Kingdom by 1956, and that Australia should concentrate solely on supplying baconer carcases in the frozen form for this market.

For the reasons stated, i t is conservatively estimated that 3 0 million lb. of pig-meats (pork equivalent) will be exported to the United Kingdom in 1956. The more liberal approach which may at at later date prove to be justified, allows for the marketing of 54 million lb. by 1956.

5. 4. 2. Miscellaneous Markets.

As has been stated previously, the United Kingdom maiket absorbs 98 010 of Australian pork exports, the other 2 % being shipped to the East and certain of the Pacific Islands. Annual average exports of pork to ports other thatl United Kingdom for the five year period ended 1938-39 were 566,000 lb. I t is not anticipated that there will be any marked expansion in this trade in the early post-war years, owing t o the generally low standard of living in the East, and the influence of certain religious beliefs. An estimate of 0.6 million lb. will be used in subsequent calculations as the level of exports of Australian pork to ports outside the United Kingdom in 1956.

During the five years ended 1938-39, 9 2 % of Australian exports of bacon and ham were shipped to ports outside the United Kingdom. With bacon and ham, the length of the transport period is all-important, in-so-far as i t affects the degree of curing necessary, and consequently Australia's chief markets are in Eastern countries and the Pacific Islands. Exports t o those countries were a t a fairly stable level in pre-war years and on the average amounted to 1.5 million lb. for the five years ended 1938-39. Expansion, of these markets will once again depend on improvements in the standard of living, and as no information is available on the degree of expansion which can be expected, an estimate of 1.5 million lb. will be used as the level of exports in 1956.

Converting 1.5 million lb. of bacon and ham to a pork equivalent gives the level of exports of bacon aod ham as 2.25 million lb. Accordingly, i t is estimated that exports of pig-meats to ports other than the United Kingdom will have reached approximately 3 million lb. (pork equivalent) by 1956.

5. 5. LIMITS O F EXPANSION.

5. 5. 1. Total Pig-meat as Pork Equivalent.

The present level of production of all pig-meat, expressed as a pork equivalent, has been taken as 230 million lb., which approximates to the 1946-47 level of production.

It is estimated that in 1956 approximately 284 million lb. of pig-meats will be disposed of in all markets.. This figure allows for the disposal of 227 million lb. on the Australian market, the more liberal estimate of 5 4 million b. on the United Kingdom market and the remaining 3 million lb. on miscellaneous Eastern and Pacific markets.

The effect of these estimates is recorded in the following table, which

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY .57

should serve to clarify the relation between anticipated disposals in 1956 and the present level of production in Australia:

a Present production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 million lb.

Anticipated disposals 195 6- 1. Home Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 . . . . .. 2. U.K. Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4 ,,

. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. Miscellaneous Markets 3 ,,

. . . . T O T A L DISPOSALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 84

Excess of anticipated disposals over present production . . 5 4 ,, ,, Scope for expansion in production over next 10 years . . 23 O f o

Accordingly, i t is considered that an over-all expansion of 5 4 million Ib, or 2 3 % of the 1946-47 level of production would be justified if this increase is spread over the next ten years. This expansion is for total pig-meats expressed as a pork equivalent, and is further analysed into pork and bacon and ham in the two subsequent sections.

Using the conservative approach, the following table is obtained: Present production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 million lb.

Anticipated disposals 19 56- . . . . 1. Home Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. U.K. Market 3 0 ,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. Miscellaneous Markets 3 ,, ,,

T O T A L DISPOSALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260 .. ,,

254.7 million lb.

Producers have become increasingly aware of the advantages of some form of stabilisation scheme, and have advocated some such scheme as a Excess of anticipated disposals over present production . . 3 0 ,, ,,

Scope for expansion in production over next 10 years . . 13 %

In these circumstances, an over-all expansion of only 1 3 70, or 3 0 million lb., seems justified. In this case, the expansion would be to meet an increased demand in the home market, and the expansion would chiefly involve the production of additional porkecs.

5. 5. 2. Pork.

The present level of production of pork has been taken as 80 million lb., which is approximately the 1946-47 figure.

I t is estimated that total disposal of pork in 1956 will amount t a

148 million lb. This total will depend on the consumption of 93.5 million lb. in Australia, the export of 54 million lb. to United Kingdom, and the

S8 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOB THE PIG INDUSTRY

export of 0.6 million lb. t o Eastern and Pacific markets. This information is set out below in table form:

Present production 7 0 million lb. P

Anticipated disposals 1 95 6- 1. Home Market 93.5 ,, ,, 2. U.K Market 54 ,, ,, 3. Miscellaneous Markets 0 6 ,, ,,

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T O T A L DISPOSALS 148. l ,,

Excess of anticipated disposal~ over present production . . 78 ,, ,, Scope for expansion in production over next ten years . . 11 1 %

From this table it will be seen that, on the assumptions made, it is expected that Australia will be able to increase production of pork by approximately 78 million lb., or 11 1 % of the 1946-47 production figure. As this degree of expansion is dependent on increased exports of frozen pork to the United Kingdom and increased consumption in Australia, the emphasis in the future must be on baconer carcases of the type and weight demanded by the United Kingdom consumer, and porker carcases for the Australian market.

When the more conservative estimate of 3 0 million lb. is taken as the level of exports to the United Kingdom in 1956, the following picture b

is obtained:

Present production 7 0 million lb.

Anticipated disposals 1 95 6- * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1. Home Market 93.5 ,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. U.K. Market 30.0 ,, ,,

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. Miscellaneous Markets 0.6 ,, ,,

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. T O T A L DISPOSALS 124.1 ,, - l Excess of anticipated disposals over present production . . 54 ,, ,,

Scope for expansion in production over next 10 years . . 7 7 %

Thus, using the conservative estimate for exports to the United Kingdom, an expansion in production of 5 4 million lb., or 7776, would be in order. In this case, the expansion would be entirely in porkers for the local market.

5. 5. 3. Bacon and Ham.

T h e present level of production for bacon and ham has been taken as 105 million lb., which is approximately the 1946-47 figure.

A figure of 90.75 million lb. has been calculated as a reasonable estimate for total disposals of bacon and ham in 1956. This figure is based on the assumptions that 89.25 million lb. will be required to fulfil the demand in Australia and that it will be possible to dispose of 1.5 million lb. in Eastern markets. I t is considered that the United Kingdom will

provide a negligible market for Australian bacon and ham in ten years' time. The following table summarises these estimates:

Present production . 1 0 5 million lb.

Anticipated disposals- .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1. Home Market 89.25 ,, 2. U.K. Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 3.MiscellaneousMarkets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 ,, .. - T O T A L DISPOSALS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.75 ,, ,,

Excess of present production over anticipated disposals . . 14.25 ,, ,, Indicated reduction of production over next 10 years . . 1 3 %

On the basis of past experience and estimates of future requirements, i t is considered that, if the present level of production of bacon and ham is maintained during the next ten years, it will exceed the level of anticipated disposals in 1956 by approximately 142 million lb., or 13 70. I t should be remembered, however, that during the war years there has been an over-all increase in average carcase weight. This trend is certain to be reversed during the next few years and in this case producton would tend to decline towards the pre-war average.

Finally, it is considered that, as a result of analysis of the information available, there is no scope for expansion in bacon and ham production. I t may even prove necessary to divert a certain percentage of bacon carcases from Australian curers into the export trade as frozen baconer carcases for the United Kjngdom.

5. 6 . CONCLUSIONS.

Admittedly in the short run, the market outlook for Australian pig- meat production is most favourable, owing to the world-wide shortage of meat and food generally. However, once supplies of stock feed become more readily available, pig numbers can be increased rapidly, with the result that the long-term outlook is rather uncertain and requires further clarification, For example, United Kingdom pig-meat production is expected to recover to the pre-war level by about 1952, and some expansion above that level is contemplated after this date.

In previous sections of this report, it has been indicated that any long-term expansion in Australian pig-meat production will be dependent upon a progressive increase in the home market, due to an increased population and an increased taste for pork, and in the United Kingdom market as a result of the continuation of the pre-war trend in exports of frozen baconer carcases.

It is considered that some long-term expansion in the United Kingdom market for Australian baconer carcases can be expected, but that the market for Australian bacon is still expected to be negligible. Expansion in the market for frozen baconer carcases is based on:

(a) increased per capita consumption: (b) higher levels of employment and income in the United Kingdom; (c) no marked increase in United Kingdom imports of cured bacon:

60 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY L

(d) present United Kingdom financial difficulties should encourage curing of bacon carcases in preference to the import of the cured prodcct ;

(e) the interest of the Overseas Food Corporation in Australia's L

exportable surplus; ( f ) reduced pig-meat exports from Argentina and her apparent interest

in other markets. The development of an expanded market by Australia in the United

Kingdom may be retarded by such factors as: (a) inability to maintain full employment levels: (b) an improvement in the ratio of returns to feed costs in main

producing countries, leading to a rapid expansion in production: (c) limited curing facilities in the United Kingdom. In view of the rapidity with which expansion of pig-meat production

can be achieved and the proportions which can be reached, the prospect of a significant increase in the United Kingdom long-term market for pig- meats must be viewed with a certain degree of caution.

Any increase in the consumption of pig-meat in Australia will be largely the result of increases in the Australian population. However, a reduction in the price of pig-meats relatively to other meats, which could result from more efficient methods of feeding or from an improvement in the technique of management, could lead t o an at present unforeseen increase in per capita consumption.

The degree to which production of pig-meats does increase will depend on such factors as the future price of pig-meats, the price of cereals in-so-far as it affects the availability of supplementary feed, the number of dairy cows, and the continuation of inter-governmental trading schemes, in addition to the factors already mentioned. The pig population of Australia can be expected to continue to vary in cyclical fashion with a steady periodicity, and to follow the general upward trend which was in evidence in the inter-war period.

However, one of the main problems facing the pig-meat industry a t present is that of stability. In the short run i t would appear that attention will need to be concentrated on stability of production rather than on the development of new markets. While the present shortage of grain feeds continues, there will be a tendency for production t o decrease, but it should recover rapidly once this problem is overcome.

Although a clarification of the international situation may cause the present outlook for internationid trade to be modified, it is considered that, on the basis of present knowledge, the degree of expansion of pig-meat production should be based on the conservative estimate given in the preceding sections. On this basis i t is estimated that the following expansion could be disposed of by 1956. 1. Total pig-meats (expressed as a pork equivalent).

3 0 million Ib., or 13 % increase on the 1946-47 production level. 2. Pork (carcase weight).

54 million lb., or 779% increase on the 1946-47 production level. 3. Bacon and ham (cured weight).

A decrease of 1 4 million lb., or 13 % of the 1946-47 production level. With a return to normal trading-conditions and the lifting of the ban

ECONOMJC OUTLOOK FOR THE PIG INDUSTRY 61

on the slaughter of light-weight pigs for home consumption as pork, i t trade. In addition, i t is also to be expected that the average weight of baconer carried on to baconer weights will be marketed as porkers for the local can be expected that a certain percentage of pigs which were formerly carcases will decrease, so that the anticipated surplus production of bacon and ham should be automatically adjusted. This, however, would result i n an additional production of pork, so that the estimate of 54 million lb. would have to be reduced. The figure quoted for justifiable expansion 1.1

total pig-meat production expressed as a pork equivalent would then serve as a more accurate measure of the scope for expansion in pork production.

In conclusion, i t is considered that there should be no long-term expansion of bacon and ham production above the 1946-47 production level, but that there is room for an increase in pork production conservatively estimated at 30 million lb. Clarification of the following factors, which are at present incapable of assessment in quantitative terms, could well lead to an upward revision of this estimate:

(1) the duration of inter-governmental trading agreements which may in the future be regarded as a restriction to free multilateral trade and so conflict with the provisions of the International Trade Organisation Charter, except in special circumstances;

(2) the future of Imperial Preference which, in its present form and with a return to competitive trading, would guarantee Empire producers a definite share in the United Kingdom market;

(3) future levels of income and employment in-so-far as they affect the level of consumption ;

(4) the United Kingdom's ability to adjust her balance of payments difficulties, particularly in respect of "hard" currerlcies;

(5) the relative competitive position, including export potential and cost structure, of Australia and other chief exporting countries in a free market.

TABLE 1 - PIG WPULATIOii OF ALWRBLIA.

(@(W head). '

(a) includes Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory.

(b) j l s r March of year following.

(c) 50th June of year following.

( '000 head).

Classlf l ca t ion N.S.W. Vio. Q'land S.Bust. W.Auat. lhs. Cantnonwealth

A s a t 31/3/44.

Boars 14 7 12 4 4 1 43 Breeding Sows 69 38 53 '22 20 6 210 Baconers & Porkers 179 92 i52 65 "54 16 537 Backfet ters 9 3 5 2 3 - 23 Stores 102 80 1% 21 19 3 330 Suckers, Weaners k

Slips 1 118 145 72 65 19 604

Total pigs 561 338 450 186 t64 46 1,747

4s a t 31/3/&.

Boars 12 6 12 3 3 1 39 Breedlng Sows 61 33 51 19 18 6 188 Eacouere & Porkers 174 82 128 60 58 16 519 Bac)rfatters 6 2 5 2 2 - 17 Stores 102 78 115 I8 21 4 338 Suckers, W w e r s &

Sl ips 169 95 726 58 62 l9 529

Total pigs 524 296 438 161 164 47 1.630

gs a t 31/3/46.

Baars Breeding Sors Baooners & Porkers B s o m t t e r s s to res Suckers, Weanera &

s l i p s

Total Pi@

A s a t 31/i/a.

B a r s Breeding Sore Bsconers & Porkers Baokfat tei-: Storea Suckers, W m e r s k

Slip8

Total Pigs

(8) fncludes A.C.T. and n o r t h Terribory.

TABLE 5 - WH( OF PIGS SIAUCBTERED - AUSTRALIA BY STATES.

( '000 head).

(a) Year ended kmh.

(b) Year ended June.

(c) Yesr anded Deoomber.

(d) Sleughterings o f Pi@ f o r Pork and Bacon & Ham only - sleughterings fo r boi l ing down not included. Subject

t o revision.

(e) Including Northern Terr i tory and Australian Capital Terr i tory.

ear Y

1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-55 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 l9Y-39 lgj?-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-43 1943-44 1944-45 1945-46

(d) 7 946-47 I (a)

New South Walrs

( 4

405.6 (b) 417.5

425.7 455.8 465.5 509.1 595.6 613.9 537.0 552.9 542.5 596.9 737.9

(b) 604.2

(b) 507.7 (b) 545.2

459.5 404.9

Vxctork (b) 347.7 399.2

392.2 426.0 419.7 414.7 495.5 568.5 59.0 434.4 422.5 571.0 570.4 439.9 388.4 415.7 316.3 m . 9

South Aus- t r a l i a (h)

94.9 111.3

135.8 150.3 167.5 150.6

153.9 173.0 168.0

124.7 122.9

224.4 289.2

:b) 188.4 :b) 210.8

2B.o 171.9 165.1

Weens- land

(b 366.6 408.1 408.2

376.8 406.0

488.5 558.1 528.7 513.4 562.1

684.5 707.6 658.9 576.0 510.0 510.6 472.1 432.0

Western Austral ia

( c )

59.4 79.L 96.5 126.6 127.2 148.3 121.9 129.8 104.9 91.9 113.6 167.3 276.7

:b) 198.4 (b) 161.0

166.2 177.6 151.0

Tasm8n.i~ (b

62.1 53.6 l .

48.5 50.0 50.9 57.6 58.5 63.8 72.0 65.0 81.2 78.1 73.8 70.0 58.0 52.9 49.7

C onman- wealth. 0

1,337.0 1,469.7 1,510.6

1,585.1 1.637.0 19763-3 1,963.7 2,073.9 1,897.4 1,839.6 1,952.6 2,350.4 2,593.9 2,082.9 1,848.7 1,933.4 1,650.9 1,555.5

TABLE A -.TOT& PIG IbEAT PRoDLCl'IOli IN AUSTBALIA.

( ~ 0 0 0 lb.)

(a) Conversron of boon and ham to a pork equlwrlent fa based on the re lat~ont 2 lb. (c& WOW^) WoCm and ham = j lb.. (carcase welght) pork.

percentage an BBse Y e a r 1929-30

I00

108.5 l e . 0 112.0

117.9 127.7 138.7 143.4 133.1 134.6 154.5 171.1 188.7 169.2 976.7 1%.8

167.3 155.2

Total pig-meat expressed as a pork ep-lmt.

(8 1 144.585 156,872 157~633 161,882

170.471 184.569 200,493 207,312 192,459 194,654 223,354 2479 324 272,192 a ~ , 6 3 e 255,506 284,491 241,922 224,408

Bacon and ha!

703 102

7l,%o 711222

68,365 71 -490 71,005 77,655 73,677 70,340 74,454 78,586 89,373 95,119

1 0 4 ~ 8 ~ 5 102,419 126,090

108,835 103,262

Year

1929-50

1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1953-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39 1939-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-43 1943-44 1944-45 1945-46 1946-47

Pork

39,432 50,297 50.950 59,334 63.236 76,063 84,011

96,797 s6.929 82.953 95.475

113,265 130,114 87,385

r01,878

95 9 357 78,669 69,514

TABLE 6 - PRODUCTION OF BACOH AND HAM IN AUSTRALIA. ('OCO lb.)

Victoria Queensland

18,888.5 19,195.2

SouthAustralia

5,232.9

West. Australia

29713.1

Tasmania

2,454.5

A.C.T.

1.2

Commonwealth

70,102.0

United Kingdom 6,250 8,275 15.155 23,066 26,222 33,510 30.120 50.954 72,705 31,717 870 15,948 57,005 28,050

British lblaya

British pacific I s l e s 63 63 74 99 125 141 150 161 110 96 213 - 24 - Union of S. kfrioa .. - - - - - - - - - - - 62 144

Philippine Islands 71 46 51 85 84 91 14 54

Pacific Islands (Foreign) - - - - - - - - - - - - 6 - Other Countries 68 57 24 12 30 46 41 280 167 582 l j 7 472 508 7394

6,703 8,664 15,636 23,578 26,816 33,959 30,716 52,203 74,889 34,240 1,997 16,017 39,7382 30,773

TABLE 8 - AUSTRALIAN MFVRTS OF FWZM PORK - STATE5 OF FIBAL SHIPMEWT.

(Quantity in '000 lb. - Value in EvOOO)

New South Walas Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Commealth Year guaatity Value Quantity 'blue Quantity Value Wnt i ty Value Quantity Value w n t l t y Value

1933-34 124.3 3.4 2,24347 57.9 4,893.9 116-3 746.9 l 655.0 14.5 8,663.9 210.8

(a) Shipments from individual States not available.

TARLS 9 - &USi'RALI~ m R T S OY BRCOB AND E.M ( 'COO lb.)

United Elngdom 11 5 35 69 120 187 270 487 364 65 1,904 1,124 2,867

E3ng Kong 130 160 101 150 112 l04 64 204 217 202 - - - 39

India & Ceylon 55 115 48 32 34 24 24 1,347 2,139 1.4% 1,252 3,034 3,604 1,046

B r l t ~ s h Malaya 206 259 254 276 262 245 30-3 739 1,346 1,239 - - - 41

British & Foreign pacific Islands 2VI 234 230 277 262 223 2W 210 164 182 230 1,322 943 170

French Indo China 37 46 57 53 71 57 40 41 11 - - - - - Hetherlands East Indies 595 570 617 565 558 342 562 547 875 500 - - - 85

Philippine islands 251 193 189 254 268 255 232 228 1 86 141 -

Other Countries 105 82 'J 1 45 65 39 33 233 488 540 686 1.587 2,431 2,383

Total 1,598 1,664 1,562 1,701 1.752 1,676 1.739 4.247 6,677 5,764 2,640 8,625 9,480 7,143

(a) Included i n Other Count-ies. -J

(guant$tu in "30 lb. - value. in E'COC)

(a) S i p - t r f r a iadividml States not amilable.

Cr~saomr~lth -tit3

1,664.5

1,562.5

1,701.6

1,752.5

1.676.0

1,739.1

4,247.4

6,676.9

59764.3

2,639.7

8,62~.2

8,486.2

7,142.9

western ~uat . value

96.6

98. 8

109.5

112.7

117.7

1 20.0

274.9

439.7

395.0

205.6

628.2

672.4

661.1

Quantity

10.9

1.9

0.2

0.6 S

29.3

0.9

134.2

60.7

south Awt. Quantitg Value

Year

1933-34

t934-35

1935-36

1956-37

1937-38

1938-39

1939-40

1940-41

1941-42(a)

1942-43(4)

194~44(a)

1944-45(*)

1945-46(*)

Value

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.8

0.1

7.0

4.4

Queensland

r

6.4

1.8

- - 0.7

c.1

384.5

661.1

qusntity

1,187.6

1,059.6

1,200.7

1,156.2

1,165.1

1,421.2

1,966.5

2,421.6

0.4

.o.l

- - 0.1

0.:

26.6

41.6

Victoria vduo Value

68.9

67.5

78.1

78.0

84.9

98.9

126.1

154.8

New South Wales BrantiV

1

94.0

83.6

sSr(

93.5

82.2

55.9

JB9.3

6,389.3

m t i t y

356.6

415.6

416.1

502.1

390.1

261.1

1,372.7

2,14490

5.2

4.8

5.2

4.8

3.4

3.6

22.4

87.6

Value

21.6

26.3

26.4

29.8

28.5

17.4

92.9

151.2

T W 11 - PIG P(JmAZZW OF TBlE CHTIGF PI0 RAISSdl0 g@gg&&

(million head)

Countries 1934-58 1940 1941 1942

.Endre Countrieq

United Xln@m 4.61 4.11 2.56 2.14

Csnada 3.76 6.00 6.08 7.12

South Mrioa 0.97 0.47 (8) (8)

U.B.S.R. 23.12 26.70 (a) (a)

Blrail 24.04 21.6 (a) 25.00

maoe 7.08 4.98 5.01 4.64

Poland 9.68 9.68 (a) (a)

S pin 6.94 55.1 (a) 4.91

A + t i l m 3.67 3-36 4.98 5.71

I ta ly 2.98 4.52 3.60 3.67

~ s l ~ v i r 3.14 3.50 (a) (a)

Caechoalovakia 3.16 2.77 3.07 2.93

Netherlands 1.59 1.19 0.72 0.69

Sweden 1.35 1.31 1.00 0.84

83.74 59.33

12.40 t3.6b

12.82 12.29

(8) (8)

3.91 3.67

(8) (8)

(a) (8)

2.08 2.08

6.80 8.80

5.28 3.07

1.Y (8,)

(8) (a)

3.26 3.10

(a) (a)

0.85 (a)

0.99 1.05

2.15 1.95 1.63

6.02 4.91 5.47

(a) 1.10 (S)

1.63 1.43 1.27

0.59 0.55 (a)

61.30 56.90 (a)

9.70 7.20 (a)

7.14 8.41 (a)

24.34 (a) (a)

4.39 5.28 (a)

1.69 2.67 2.99

(a) 4.70 (a)

1.65 1.77 1.82

8.01 5.00 4.50

3.04 5.00 3.10

1.02 1.41 (a)

1.50 2.73 (a)

2.36 2.91 (a)

1.11 1 . 3 1.45

0.98 l.% (a)

1.08 1.16 1.17

(a) Not available.

S0Wel F.A.O. Report - "Livestock and %eatH.

TABLE 12 - SLAUCRIP(INGS OF PIGS IN C6RFAlX COUNTRIES.

(Number i n '000)

Countries 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937

Great Br i t a in Canada Australia E i re (c) New Zealand ( b ) United S ta tes Gemany France (c ) Poland Denmark (i) :aechoslovakia (g) Netherlands Belgium Brazi l ( f )

Argentina Sweden (g) Rumania (d) Yugoslavia (d)

( a ) Not avarlable ; 1936 f igure ln t o t a l (b) Year enled j l s t Mamh following tha t shmn ( c ) Based on slaughter-tax returns. Unofficial f t ina tes fo r 1931 & 1932 (d) A t public aba t to i r s ( e ) 'Pwelve months ended J l s t May. Far t ly estimated. ( f ) Estimated l;] Inspected Slaughterings. -

A t public a b a t t o i r s and private s laughter houses i n Vienna. ( i ) Figures f o r export s laughter houses only,

-8 Imperial Economic Conunittee -Meat 1938.

c w c - n m w - - m y r - y m m n ~ y 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . f i n r O N N m m C U U b N N - r m U m m i n m v m N * .- m

m - c - n c m w . o m q - y c m ~ . n m q ~ $ ~ 6 4 < < m < ~ m ~ m < ~ ~ < . - ! m W m N W - m 9 U

r

TABLE 14 - -S C@ PO= PDDY m CCWPRIES

( tOOo,Ooo lb.)

Copntries 199 l93C 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 l957 l958

Sire 30.6 31.7 41.8 28.3 21.7 15.8 15.8 12.0 5.9 4 1

llar Zealand 10.9 16.1 13.1 16. l 36.0 47.7 55.1 67.8 67.2 55.4

Caaada 10.2 5.7 4.8 iO.3 8.0 3.4 7.1 16.5 25.5 7.7

A~tralta 0- 9 8.6 7.4 6.7 8.6 15.7 23 -6 26.8 33.9 32.8

Poland 21.8 17.0 26.9 3.0 3.1 5.7 13.6 27.6 35.7 38.0

Argentina 10.6 10.6 11.6 14.3 20.9 33-9 22.6 22.7 25 -4 23. 3

Yugoslavia 12.3 7.5 5.1 8.4 5.4 4.6 13.5 20.8 20. 8 12.5

Yetherlenda 47.7 74.1 113.7 110.7 66.4 41.2 21.8 17.5 19.9 5.0

U.S.A. 58.4 48.0 25.3 23.4 31.0 55.1 18.5 13.2 13.3 23.4

murgn (a) (a) 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 27.7 27.7 6.2 11.1

Denmark 2-5 0.9 9.3 13.2 17.0 8.8 5.9 4.4 7.7 10.2

Belgim 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.9 6.5 L.6

Bulgaria (8) (a) - - - - 0.2 6.3 4.4 ( 8 )

~ithumia (a) (8) 11.0 12.2 7.2 6.6 9.2 5 -0 4.0 4.4

~ ~ a e n i a (a) (a) 0.7 0.9 - - 3.6 7 -6 2.6 1.5

Sweden ( 8 ) (4 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.0 0.6 - 0.5 L.6

Italy. (a) (a) 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 7.3 - 7.5 U.S.S.B. 12.4 1.8 - 0.1 - - - - - -

TOTAL 227.0 223.3 275.7 250.1 224.3 243.9 238.5 280.3 276.0 244.0 . (a) Not available. m; Imperial Xconomic Ccmmittee Reports. *\D

~ustria 32.4 25.9 24.6 8.5 6.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 7.8 ' 9.2

(a) Not available. S&3& rmperial lonomic C d t t e e .Reports.

1931 1932 1933 l954 1935 l936 3937 1938 l939 !%fit 1945 1946 1947.

l. gVAWITY IN '000 CWS.

Australia 86 45 66 H2 l47 735 734 2W 310 241 257 287 4 1

E i r e 585 26 5 195 155 151 121 56 37 53 80 - - -

U.S.A. '17 40 a8 296 79 11 72 65 52 46 2,008 394 15

OTHERS 64 45 35 58 PP 18 l9 24 52 23 l94 13 3

TOTAI, H16 6j7 839 1,287 1,082 1,155 1,121 1,229 1,025 1,129 4,052 1,598 287

7. PJmENl'ACE DISTRIBUTIrn

A=,:< n t I rut 1 U 1H 2 1 72 18 17 18 20 13 17 52 42 >2

U.S.R. '9 6 11 25 7 1 2 5 I' 4 4 1 25 5

-: U . K . Tmdc T3ullcLin.4 (Pre-war ri6pros) The Pastoral Rcview (post-war r i ,prus ) . U3

TABLE 17 - UNITED KINGDOM IMPORTS OF BACON AND HM.

C w d a 122 325 687 1,075 1,109 1,370 1,702 1,507 1,519 1,441 3,908 =re 314 214 224 381 479 528 525 553 484 512 - Denmsrk 7,342 7,677 5,524 4.288 3,826 3,373 3,429 3,389 3,476 3,492 274 Netherlands 1,001 977 87 3 608 509 485 514 636 525 - Poland 1.179 1,252 '358 498 452 421 445 481 457 457 446 - U.S.A. 790 529 627 517 439 550 319 438 401

251 678

Sweden 577 424 403 297 257 253 25 1 257 - 242 188 Lithuaslia 362 512 416 252 165 190 207 -

Others 278 282 34 1 413 369 278 194 261 233 257 '01 279 - TOTAL 11,965 12,192 9,953 8,327 7,605 7.241 7,600 7.532 7.895 7,554 4.860

C-da Eire Denmark Netherlands Poland U.S.A. Sweden Lithusnia Others

TOTAL

TABLE 18 - SLA'JGITERINC OF PIGS IN NFW ZEALAND.

-

Year ended Slaughterangs S l a u g h t e r i ~ s 3 1 B t March a t abat tozrs on farms (a) . Total

(a) Year ended J l s t Janusry.

(b ) Approximate.

SOURCE: New Zealand Offlcial Year Books. - TABLE 19 - CLASSIFICATICBV OF PIG SLAUGWWINGS IN

NEN ZEALAND.

Year ended Total pigs Slaughtered a s Jlst March slaughtered Baconers Porkers Choppers

-:'New Zealand Department of Agriculture - Banual Reports.

TABLE 20 - NZ4 ZEALAND =PORTS OF POW (FROZEN)

Year ended 50th June Quantity (000 lb.) Value (E000)

TABLE 21 - KILLUIO FOB MPORT. WE&' ZEALABD.

Carcases Caroases

Season Baconers Boneless X

Porkers (~ncludlng Beef Sundries Total

Choppers) (1n 60 lb . Frelght Carcases) In tons.

1922-23 29,759 241,290 154,438 1923-24 4, 943 266,154 81,994 152,829 1924-25 351753 263,738 54,961 172,448 1925-26 28,819 21,184 219,392 110,449 150,176 1926-27 45,147 29,486 242,044 69,534 159,555 1927-28 118,551 29,050 283,749 125,200 187,449 1928-29 115,996 43,301 161,597 153,331 164,804 1929-30 94,404 39,187 194.311 229,673 201,060 1930-31 110,092 22,308 266,315 307.461 197,112 1931-32 130,520 22,357 340.357 290,614 232,569 1932-33 268,616 55,364 438,236 376,972 247,728 1933-34 361,430 i o j , i a i 512,219 310,437 247,427 1934-35 430rc75 157,334 334,991 469.431 255,767 1935-36 459 ,a7 1 219,690 408,520 551,347 258,067 1936-37 437.341 243,155 536,785 585,374 269,086 1937-38 426,355 228,865 648,383 603,924 276,103 1938-39 350,895 189,587 7509 807 682,374 297,118 1939-40 88,%2 341,920 857 9 349 764,857 347,496 1940-41 229,847 292,118 069,303 736,634 342,987 1941-42 175,001 2 190,054 A 1,159,237 672,784 557,279 1942-43 121,734 105,328 A 1,264,405 691,100 326,005 1943-44 187 1 9 J 180,614 r 850, 065 644,722 313,417

139:1%6 -1 1944-45 180.498 666,303 652,440 551.990 1945-46 155,788 1 44,846 637,260 709,529 348,419

.L Complete figures not ava~lable.

X Conrmenclng 1941, the relght has been effected by de-boning, e tc . Source: New Zealand Meat Board Report.

2 .

TABL8 22 - LIVESl!OCK ON FARMS IN CANADA - PIGS. Year (as at Number ('000) Year (as ao lhusber ('000) June 1st.) June 1st.)

Sourcer Canada - Wrterly Bulletins of Agricultural Statistics.

Table 23 - U 5.8. - ZIIUATED m OF PIGS ON FARMS S AT T Year Under 6 Over 6 months.

Months. sovs & ~ilts Other TotaJ Total

Average 1935-39 20.564 7.583 15.785 23.368 43.952

(a) Preliminary.

Soun;e: United States B.A.E. "The Livestock and Wool Situation"

P P

Year Beef and Veal Mutton end Lamb PO& (Ekoluding ~ard) Total X2qort.s Imports Ecports Imposts E~pwt r s Imports Exports Imporrs

(a) Preliminary.

Source, United Sta tes , B.A.E. - 'Tatio3P.l Food Situetion".

Sow De~reola t lon: Sow costa £6.6.0 a t 5 to 4 months. h e d t o bring he r up t o breedrng age makes her t o t a l cos t a t f i r s t matlng about £9. Breeding "life" 6 l l t t e r s . Value a s backfatter in nannsl t m e s £5 i .e . depreciation g4 over 3

Boar Costei Boar depreciates a t the r a t e of £2 a year from h i s t o t a l oost a t frrst mating. Ka c a s t s e5 a year t o feed wi th feed a t £7 a long ton8 a m m l ooat £7, divided among 30 sows.

Yiaoellaneous Costsr Based upon the complete records of a large commemial ~ 1 ~ g e r y .

TOTAL Sourcer "The Structure of Plg Production Costs" - H.J. Geddes.

4. 0. 0 I 5 . 8

54. 7. 0 3.17. 7

0.49

6.64

84* TABLE 26 - COSTS OF PRODUCTION OB POFKEU PIGS - AUSTRALIA

E. S. d. Feed: for sow and her 14 pigs to porkel weight. 3.4 tons at E7 per ton.

U: One man at E5 per week.

Sow De~reciation: As given in Table 27. 1.6. 8 I 1. l1

Boar Costs: I 6

gousing Depreciation: 1 1 . 1 . 0 ( 1. 6

Commission and Yardage: 1 2.15. 5 1 3. 11

~iscellaneous Costs:

TABLE 27 - AWJAL PIG UAT CONWETION PER HEAD OF POPULATION IN AUSTRALIA (a)

(lb.)

TOTAL

Cost per lb. pork.

4. 0. 0

39.16. 1 2. 16. 10

Year Pork Bacon & Total Pigmeats Total Ham (as pork) Meat.

5. 8

- Source: "The Structure of Pig Production Costs" - 3. 3. Geddes.

Average 7 yrs. ended 1920-21 4.1 10.3 19.6 Average : yrs. (b)

ended 1925-26 5-2 11.2 22.1 (b)

Average 3 years ended 1938-39 25.7 244.5

1943 6.6 18.9 734.7 1944 10.2 22.7 206.6 1945 ' 10.0 19.9 191.7 1946 23.9 191.2 1946-47 ( d ) 25.6 199.7

(8) Figures after 1938-59 represent per caput consumption by civilians only.

(b) Not available.

(c) Includes trimmings from bacon carcases.

( a ) Includes consumptlon by Armed Forces in Australia; subject to revlaion.

TW 28 - C O N ~ I O N OF YBAT m A W S ~ A L I A (a) ( 'W0,ooo lb.)

Year Mutton & Lamb Beef & Veal Pork Total Pig Meats Total

Bacon & Ham (Expressed as pork) Meat.

1929-30 504.1 672.6 38.5 68.8 141 -9 1284.1

193@-39 527.2 969.5 52.3 72.4 160.9 1621.4 Average 1936-

37 to 1938-39 512.5 999.1 58.4 70.5 364.3 1640.6

1943 595.8 806.4 58.2 42.6 122.1 1524.3

1946-47 (h) 537.6 770.6 53.8 91.8 191.5 1499.7

(a) Total consumption ay civilians; figures for the ysrs 1943-1947 have been revised since the publication of B.A E. Bulletin No. 3. (h) Includes consumption by Armed Forces in Australia; subject to revision.

TABLR 29 - PIG BREEDING PATA.

Sow Born in

June

September

September I J-n

Mated a t 9 months of age.

DeEember I April

Due t o Farrow (4 months from

mating).

March

June 1 October

March I I - I August - September I

June I - I I November - Decem. i

H e a v y Baconers 7-8 months old, 150-160 lb. carcase wewht.

L i t t e r weaned when two months

old.

September I I Jan. - h b r u a q Februaxy - March l I

Porker 4-5 months old, 70 lb . car-

case welght.

Source: Chief Piggery Instructor, New South Wales Department of Agriculture.

Llght Baconers 6-7 months old, 130 lb. carcase weight.

December Feb. - March Aprll - May

Note: W s table shows the approximate time taken from b i r t h of sow t o production of the f i r s t l i t t e r , and the estimsted t m e s a t which the l i t t e r would be ready fo r market a s porkers of 70 lb. carcase weight, l i gh t baconers 05 130 lb. carcase weight, and heavy baconers of 150-160 lb. carcase weight.

May-June

Under correct management i n well-conducted piggeries sows a r e expected t o farrow and rear two l i t t e r s i n 12 to I3 months. For t h i s to be done sows a r e mated a s soon a f t e r weaning a s t h e i r condition w i l l allcw, due consideration being given t o the numberof brood sows mated i n re la t ion t o the ava i l ab i l i t y of future food supplies.

TABLE 30 - AYERAGE ~BOPOLITAN PRICES OF PIGS - NEW SOUTH WALES

(a) m e Heavy

(b) Slipai Suckers 11/5

(c ) Slips; Suckers l0/j

Id) Iata not available for war years.

TABLE 31 - AYERAQE METROFQLITAI PRICES OF PIGS - VICTOR1 A

Eat available Iata not available for war yeare.

YEAR

1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-53 1933-34 1934-35 1935-56 193637 1937-30 1938-39

%conera Prime

e. S. a. 4. 3. 6 4. 11. 14 5. 1. e 4. 3. 9 3. U. 10 2. 0. 4 2. 12. 2 3. 0. 3 3. 0. 3 3. 0. 9 3. 10. g 3. 19. 5 4. 0. 6 4. 8. 0

Backfatters Prime

E . a. d.

7. 1% 0 9. 12. 6

10. 10. 7 a. 5. 9 5- 0. 5 4. 6. 8 3. 10. 4 4. 9. 2 4. 15. 3 4. 5. 5 5. 5. 1

9. 0. 11

Porkers

e. S. d. 2. 6. 3 2. 15. 9 3. 0. 10 2. 12. 5 I. 13. 1

7. 9 1. 6. 1 1 1. 13. 2 1. 17. 5 1. 14. 5 1. 17. B 2. 4. 4 2. a. a 2. 12- 11

7

TABLE 32 - AVERAGE .EOWLITLB YaagET PRICES OF PIGS - PUEBNsLaaD

( 8 ) aPta not available for war year%.

TABLB 33 - AVERAGE MEJ!ROPOLITAli WICES OF PIOS - SOUTH AUSTRALIA

§%ores

E. E. a. 2 . 0 . 0 2. 0. 0 1. 15. 0 I. 7. 6 1. 5. 0 1. 0. 0

17. Q 1. 0. 0 1. 0. 0

15. 11 14. 3

1. 6. 0 1. 7. 3 1. 6. 4

year

1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-57 1937-38 1938-39 1939-40 ,

1944-45(a

(a) h t a not available for war years.

Slipa & Suckers

a. W. a 1 . 0 . 0

15. 0 12. 6 15. 0 10. 0 1C. 0 10. 0 12. 6 10. 0 8, 7 4. 8 . 9. 7 14. 0 12. 3

Baconers Prime

e . 9 . a . 3. 15. 0 3. 15. 0 3. 10. 0 3. 5. 0 2. 0. 0 2. 5. 0 2, 2. 6 2. 15. 0 2. 15. 0 2. 9. 7 2. 16. 11 3. 5. 9 3. 2. 0 3. 5. 5

Backfatt ers Prime

~ . ~ . a . 4. 0. 0 4. 0. 0 4. 10. 0 3. 0. 0 2. 0. 0 2. 7. 6 3. 0. 0 3. 0. 0 2. 10. 0 2. 10. 10 2. 13. l0 3. 4. 3 2. 18. 0 3. 9. 3

Porkers

E . s . ~ . 2. 10. 0 3. 0, 0 2. 0. 0 2. 0. 0 1. 10. 0 1. 5. 0 1. 5. 0 1 . 10. 0 1. 7. 6 1. 13. 3 1. 15. 4 2. 3- 3 2. 3. 11 2. 3. 5

Year

1926-27 1927-28 1926-29 1929-30 1930-51 1931-32 1932-33 1953-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-57 1937-38 1938-39 1939-40

Porkers

e . 8 . a . 2. 16. 6 2. 16. 0 3. 0. 6 2. 18. 9 2. 0. 0 l. 9. 3 1. 6 . 3 I. 4. 0 l. 12. 0 1. 11. 9 1. 11. 6 l. 19. 0 2. 7. 9 2. 17. 3

Backfattera Prime

e . S . d . 6. 0. 6 7. 1. 9 6. 11. 9 8. 12. 0 5. 14. 9 4. 0. 0 3. 3. 6 2. 16. 0 4. 5. 9 3. 19. 6 3. 18. 3 4, 3. 6 5. 0. 6 5. 15. 0

Stores

a. a. d. I. 9. 6 1. 15. 6 1. 15. 3 1. 19. 6 I. G. 3 1. l. 9

14. 3 15. 6

1. 4. 9 1. 2. 6

-8. 0 I. 9 . 6 1. 14. 9 I. 9. 3

Baconers Prime

e . ~ . a . 4. 1. 9 4. 7. 9 4. 16. 6 4. 7. 0 3. 7. 0 2. 8. 3 2. 6 . 3 2. I. 9 2. 12. 9 2. 8. 9 2. 14, 6 3. 2. 3 3. 14. 0 3. 11. 3

Slrps 61 Suckers

E. S. d. 15. 6

1. 2. 6 1. 4. 9 1. 4. 0

15. 6 12. 0 8. 3 10. 0 13. 6 13. 3 10. 9 15. 3

1. 1. 3 1. 4. 6

T ABLE 34 - A m Q E VElPBOWLIPAU U- PXfCBS 0 F PIGS - WE- AUSfRALIA 89

( a ) D a b not available f o r war yesra.

35 - AVSABJ l5WWIITblO UbaKBf PEICBS OF PIGS - TLBLBLE TAWANIA.

S l i p s & SUckrs

E. a. a, l. 5. 0 1 . 5 . 9 l. 11. 0 1. 13. 0

18. 6 12. 3 9. 0 12. 6 18. 0 9. 0 15. J

1 . 4. 0 1. 6. 0 1. 5. 0

(a) Data not available f o r war years.

Stores

E . B. a. l. 19. 6 2 . 5 . 6 2. 3. 6 2. 5. (I

1. 18. 0 1. 6. 0 1. 2. 0 1. 5. 0 1. 4. 0

19. 0 1. 8. 6 1, 15. 0 2. 8. 0 1. 19. 6

Y u r

1926-27

1921-28

1928-29

1929-30

1950-31

1931-32

1952-37

1935-34

1934-35

1935-56

rgj6-j'l

1737-38

1938-39

1939-40

1940-41(~)

1941-@(a)

1942-4j(a)

1943-44(a)

1944-45(a)

Po*ers

E . B . ~ . 2. 17. 3 2. 19. 6 3. 2. 0 2. 14. o 2. 2. 6 1. 7. 3 1. 5. 6 1. 12. 6 1. 16. 0 1. 7. 0 1. 10. 0 2. 10. 0 2. 12, 0 2. 3. 6

Bsconers Rme

c . B . ~ . 4. 8. 0 4. 8. 0 4. 15. 0 4. 1. o 3. 2. 6 2. 4. 6 2. 2. 0 2. 10. 0 2. 17. 0 2. 12. 0 2. 18. 0 3. 16. 6 5. 8. 0 3. 5. 0

Year

1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 tgj~rji 1931-32 1932-33 1933-54 1934-35 1935-56 1936-37 1957-38 1936-39

Bsckfatters Prime

e . 6 . d . 6. 0. 0 5. 8. 6 7. 10. 0 7. 5. o 5. 2. 6 4. 2. 0 2. 6. 0 3. 1. 6 3. 5. 0 4. 0. 0 2. 11. 0 4. 10. 0 5. 0. 0 3. 18. 0

B ~ k f a t t e r s & h e

e . 8 . d .

5 . 1 7 . 6

5. 5. 0

6 . 5 . 0

5. 10. 0

4. 7. 6

3. 2. 0

B . c w r s Prima

r . 0 . d .

4.10.0

4. 0. 0

4.iO.O

3. 15. 0

3. 8 . 9

2. 15. 0

S l i p s and Suckera. c . s . ~ .

15. 0

17. 0

13. 0

10. 6

14. 7

9. 0

9. 3

15. 5

14. 3

16. 3

16. 9

14. 6

16. 0

8. 4

Porker8 ~ . a . d . e . s . d .

2.5.0

2. 10. 0

3 . 0 . 0

2. 15. 0

1. 15. 6

1. 12. 0

l. l?. 3

1. 19. 0

1. 7. 6

1.13. 3

I. 9. 3

1.10. J

1.14.10

1.14. 2

Stores

1 . 5 . 0

1. 1. 0

15.0

15. 0

12. 6

10. 8

12. 3

11. 9

13. 6

14. 9

18. 9

13. 6

12. 8

15. 4

3. 7. 6

4. 0. 0

3. 12. 6

3. 3. 9

3. 17. 6

3. 18. 9 ' 4. 2. 6

3.11. 8

1

2. 19. 6

2. 15. 0

2. 16. 3

2.17.6

2. 18. 9

2.36. 9

3. 1. 3

2.75, Q

90.

TRBLE 36 - PIQ PBIGES AT ItELBOUXSE &WZIONS - 8PIKBTBD QUARTERLY AVERAGES,

Average Prlce.

6/2

5/5

5/1+

4/4 3/1%

2 1 3

J/% 2/1@

2/*

1 899 2/9 1917 4/9 1935 3/&

l900 2/sh 1918 4/9 19% 41%

1901 2/ 8 1919 5 / F h 1937 5/ 6 1902 415 t920 8/7* 1938 3/4*

1903 5/18 1921 d8 1979 2/7*

1904 312 1922 5/e 1940 3/l r

1905 315 1923 5/38 1941 311 I+

1906 31s 1924 515 1942 3/l l a

1907 3/10 1925 1943 311 l a

Year

1926

l927

1928

1 9 a

1950

1931

1932

19>3

1934

Year

le9o

l891

1892

1893

1894

+a95

1896

1897

1898

Year

1908

l9W

1910

1911

1912

l913

l914

0 1 5

1916

Average Prioe

v 7 a

4/3

4/&

31% 2/9+

314

U% 4/%

318

Avel.kge Prioe

4/38 4/9

3/10

316

4/1

3/*

411.)

5/5

4/10

TABLE 39 - qTHLY PRICES OF BACON AT BRISTOL & LONWN (pr ice in s t e r l - Der cwt .)

B r i t i s h Wiltshire, 1s t Quality, dried or smoked (a) Danish 1st Qunllty, dried or smoked. Mocth

1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 l932 l933 1934 1935 1936 l937 l938

s . d s . d s a d 5 . 6 s . d s . d s . d s.d s . d s . d s . d s . d s . d s . d

January 9 4 . 6 8 7 . 6 1 0 3 . 0 1 0 5 . 0 100.C 1C8.O 1 1 7 . 0 6 4 . 0 6 9 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 0 2 . 0 1 0 2 . 6 1 0 6 . 0 1 1 0 . 6

February 9 8 . 0 9 6 . 6 110.G 1 0 6 . 6 104.C 1 0 4 . 0 1 1 6 . 0 6 4 . 0 7 0 . 0 111,O 102.0 107.0 1 0 0 . 0 1 1 1 . 6

Marcr 99. 0 103. 0 109. 0 104. 0 104. 6 107. 0 119. C 67. 0 81. 6 105. 6 97. 0 107. 6 105. 6 115. 6

April 1 0 0 . 6 106.0 1 0 5 . 0 1 0 2 . 0 1 0 1 . 6 1 1 0 . 0 1 1 6 . 0 6 7 . 6 8 7 . 0 9 4 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 7 . 6 108.6 1 1 9 . 6

May 1C7. 6 99. 0 loo. 0 102. 6 101. 0 108. 6 111. 6 79. 0 93. 6 96. 0 105. 6 105. 6 109. 0 116. 6

June 9 5 . 0 9 5 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 0 8 . 0 1 0 4 . 0 1 0 1 . 6 110.0 7 3 . 0 8 g . c 104.6 1 1 0 . 0 1 0 j . c 1 0 3 . 0 1 1 2 . 0

J a y 89. 6 89. 6 99. 6 110. 6 104. 0 107. 6 118. 0 69. 6 88. 0 102. 6 110. 0 107. J 109. 6 118. o

A w s t 88. 0 100. 0 105. 6 105. 0 109. 0 117. 6 115. 6 79. 0 96. 6 706. 6 103. 6 113. 6 117. 0 115. 6

September 89. 0 1C6. 6 110. 6 100. 0 1C9. 0 117. 0 114. 0 81. 0 101. 6 1 1 . 98. 6 114. 6 117. 6 115. 6

October 81. 6 93. 0 1CJ. 6 103. 6 95. 0 111. 0 - 6 8 . 0 9 j . C 1 0 2 . 0 1 0 7 . 0 115.6 1 1 1 . 0 - November 81. 0 92. 6 101, C 96. ( 1Li. 6 1 ~ 5 . C - 68. 6 92. o 101. o 102, 0 104. o 105. o - December 8 7 . 0 9 6 . 6 1 0 2 . 0 9 2 . 0 106.6 113.C - 78. 6 92. 6 161. 6 97. 6 105. C 110. 0 - Year ly

Average 92. 6 97. 0 1114. o 103. 0 104. 0 1.j9. 0 - :l. 6 87. 6 103. 0 105. C 107. L 2 8 . 6 -

Soume: Imperial aonomic Committee - Reports on Meat l937 and 1938. (a) A t B r i s t o l only. Q W

. BIBLIOGRAPHY.

1. Australian Meat Board Reports 1935-36 to 1943-44. 2. "The British Pig Raising IndustryH-Nature, 13th October, 1945. 3. The Pig Industry-Deutsch, 1944. 4. Marketing and Distribution Conference--N.S.W. Dept. of Agriculture

-1941. 5. A Report on the Conditions of Animal Production in Australia-

J. Hammond, 1938. I

6. A Survey of the Pig Industry in Western Australia-R. P. Roberts, 1941.

7. United States Department of Agriculture-"Foreign Agriculture," Vol. I

9 No. 10, October, 1945. 8. "Argentina's Agricultural Exports During World War 11"-Egoroff. 9. New Zealand Official Year Books.

10. New Zealand Department of Agriculture--Annual Report, 1945. 1 1. Canada-Quarterly Bulletins of Agricultural Statistics. 12. Canada-Advisory Committee on Reconstruction-Final Report 13. United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics-"The Livestock and

Wool Situation." 14. United States Bureau of Agricultural Economics "National Food

U Situation."

15. United States "Farm Economics''-February, 1946 16. Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics-Commonwealth Year

a Books. 17. Imperial Economic Committee-Reports on Meat, 1937 and 1938. 18. Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics-Production Bulletins. 19. Victorian Department of Agriculture--Correspondence. 20. Commonwealth Controller of Meat Supplies--Official Files. 21. N.S.W. Department of Agriculture-Monthly Gazettes. 22. N.S.W. Department of Agriculture-Pamphlets on the Pig Industry.

l l

23. "The Structure of Pia Production Costs"-H. J. Geddes. l 24. "Primary Production in New Zealande-N.Z. Dept. of Agriculture,

1945. 25. Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics - Overseas Trade

Bulletins. 26. F.A.0.-Livestock Products Review, June, 1947. 27. "Pig Breeders' Gazettew-National Pig Breeders' Association, London. 28. "The Pastoral Review," Sydney. 29. Mr. J. A. Tonkin-Commonwealth Controller of Meat Supp!i:q. 30. Mr. D. W. Fair-Assistant Controller of Meat Supplies. 31. Mr. E. H. Graham, M.L.A.-Pig Producers' Representative, M.I.A.C. 32. Mr. J. L. Shute-Deputy Controller of Meat Supplies, N S.W. 33. Mr. W. S. Kdly--Commonwealth Prices Branch. 34. Mr. G. M. D. Carse - Senior Piggery Instructor, Department of

Agriculture, N.S.W. 36. Mr. J. C. Stephen--Officer-in-Charge, Production Statistics, Bureau of

Census and Statistics. 35. Mr. R. W. Mitchell-Secretary, Meat Industry Advisory Committee.

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