Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth

Sciences

George Mason UniversityClimate Dynamics PhD Program

Understanding and PredictingClimate and it’s Variability

www.climate.gmu.edu

Atmospheric Dynamics Physical Oceanography Land-Air Interactions Predictability Climate Modeling

The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem…

Precipitation patterns(December, 1994 mean)

The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem…

Precipitation patterns(December, 1994 mean)

affected by

atmospheric circulation(schematic of Hadleyand other meridionalcells)

The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem…

Precipitation patterns(December, 1994 mean)

affected by

atmospheric circulation(schematic of Hadleyand other meridionalcells)

which is in turn influenced by

Sea SurfaceTemperature(December climatology)

….with serious consequencesfor humanity.

Coping With Climate: Summary and Proposals for Action, www.cip.ogp.noaa.gov/

Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMUis relevant to the following questions:

• How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMUis relevant to the following questions:

• How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

• How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted?

Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMUis relevant to the following questions:

• How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

• How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted?

• How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”?

Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMUis relevant to the following questions:

• How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

• How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted?

• How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”?

• What is the role of the ocean in climate change on timescales of years to centuries?

Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMUis relevant to the following questions:

• How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

• How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted?

• How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”?

• What is the role of the ocean in climate change on timescales of years to centuries?

• Is the hydrological cycle accelerating?

Ed Lorenz J. Shukla

Is Climate Predictable?

ChaosSensitive dependence to initial conditionsLorenz showed very simple systems (3 variables) can have very complicated behaviorPredictability of weather limited to a few weeks

ChaosSensitive dependence to initial conditionsLorenz showed very simple systems (3 variables) can have very complicated behaviorPredictability of weather limited to a few weeks

Climate PredictionTime averages may be more predictableDynamics have ocean and land have longer intrinsic timescales than atmosphereExternal forcing may also have long timescales: (orbital variations ice ages CO2 emissions global warming)

Federov and Philander (2000)

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Federov and Philander (2000)

A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon:ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)

A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon:ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)

• ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability

A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon:ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)

• ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability

• Physics of both atmosphere and ocean essential

A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon:ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)

• ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability

• Physics of both atmosphere and ocean essential

• Internally generated, non-periodic oscillation

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html

in East,“cold tongue”of waterupwells frombelow

in West,“warm pool”of surfacewater

Normal Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific

“Walker Circulation” driven by sea surface temperature gradient

Thermocline tilt/upwelling driven by westward wind stress

Rainy west Dry east

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html

El Nino Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific

warm poolextendsacross entirePacific

cold tonguedisappears

weakening of westerlies allows flattens thermocline, weakens upwelling

small SST gradient weakens Walker Circulation, moves rainfall

Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors)and Pressure (contours)

velocity (m/s)

Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather

Large-scale “Rossby waves”propagate from equator…

Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors)and Pressure (contours)

velocity (m/s)

Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather

Large-scale “Rossby waves”propagate from equator…

…create north-south shifts andother changes in the jet stream…

Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors)and Pressure (contours)

velocity (m/s)

Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather

Large-scale “Rossby waves”propagate from equator…

…create north-south shifts andother changes in the jet stream…

…change “storm track”,strongly affecting (for example)U.S. winter weather…

Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors)and Pressure (contours)

velocity (m/s)

Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather

Large-scale “Rossby waves”propagate from equator…

…create north-south shifts andother changes in the jet stream…

…change “storm track”,strongly affecting (for example)U.S. winter weather…

…also alters global distributionof hurricanes…

Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

Example of Effects on Society: La Nina/El Ninocorrelated with devastating Indian flood/drought

Krishnamurthy, 2002

Can simulate and probe climate with computer models:

Sometimes, can captureessential physics withsimple analyticalmodels:

Sometimes, can captureessential physics withsimple analyticalmodels:

“Delayed Action Oscillator”

Sometimes, can captureessential physics withsimple analyticalmodels:

Suarez and Schopf, 1988: J. Atmos. Sci.

“Delayed Action Oscillator”

Sometimes, can captureessential physics withsimple analyticalmodels:

Suarez and Schopf, 1988: J. Atmos. Sci.

“Delayed Action Oscillator”

George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefitsfrom close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA):

George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefitsfrom close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA):

COLA: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere StudiesUnderstanding climate fluctuations on seasonal, interannual, and decadalscales, with special emphasis on the interactions between Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces.

George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefitsfrom close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA):

COLA: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere StudiesUnderstanding climate fluctuations on seasonal, interannual, and decadalscales, with special emphasis on the interactions between Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces.

CREW: Center for Research on Environment and WaterQuantify and predict global water cycle and environmental consequencesof earth system variability and change through focused research investments in observation, modeling, and application.

A few of our most recent PhD’s:

Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang)

A few of our most recent PhD’s:

Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang)

Laura Feudale, Extreme events in Europe and North America during 1950-2003 (Advisors: Shukla/Kinter)

A few of our most recent PhD’s:

Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang)

Laura Feudale, Extreme events in Europe and North America during 1950-2003 (Advisors: Shukla/Kinter)

Yuri Vikhliaev, The role of ocean basin modes in excitation of North Pacific decadal variability (Advisor: Schopf)

Graduate Application Process

Application Deadline for Fall Semester: Feb 1 of Same Year

Stipend and tuition support available for qualified applicants

Further information:

Professor Barry Klinger,Graduate Coordinator

e-mail: bklinger@gmu.eduphone: (301) 595-7000

http://climate.gmu.eduhttp://www.iges.org

College of ScienceGeorge Mason UniversityFairfax, VA 20030

COLA4041 Powder Mill Rd, Suite 302

Calverton, MD 20705

CLIM 101:Weather, Climate and Global Society

August 6, 2008

CLIM 101:Weather, Climate and Global SocietyThis course provides a survey of the scientific and societal issues associated with weather and climate variability and change. The current debate on climate change will be discussed from a scientific point of view, with a focus on those aspects that have the largest potential impact on global society.

FALL 2008

CLIM 101 fulfills the General Education Natural Science (non-laboratory) requirement.

Instructors: Jagadish Shukla, Jim Kinter and Emilia Jin

August 6, 2008

4242

DEFORESTATION NEAR DEFORESTATION NEAR MONTEVERDEMONTEVERDE

5757

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