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November 13, 2008

Dr. Lucy Jones Chief Scientist Multi Hazards Initiative

33 billion $

Density of building losses

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Effect of an earthquake on the economy

Economic activity

Time

Expected activity

‘Disaster’ (a few yrs.)

‘Catastrophe’ (decades)

Disaster or Catastrophe? What pre-event action will reduce impacts?

The Fault

Shaking

Secondary hazards

Structures Infra- structure

Lifelines Triggered hazards

Emergency response Casualties

Social Impacts

Economic Impacts

POLICY

Sources of Economic Shock

Economic Losses: Direct property

damage & business interruption

Indirect ancillary damage & ripple

effects

Ground motion Building damage

Transportation Route closure

And delays

Water Shut-off

Power outage

Gas Shut-off

Fire Building damage

Adjust for double-counting/multiple sources

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What’s the problem?

• How do we encourage readiness? •  People know the risk • We have less readiness than in 1971 • We need to get them to talk about the

risk

The Great ShakeOut - What is it?

• A unique earthquake preparedness experience

• A week in November to remember our future

•  For all southern Californians

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It’s a drill

•  The Golden Guardian exercise – Based on USGS-CGS scenario – Planning underway in 8 counties

•  The Valiant Sentry exercise – USNorthCOM participation – Mexico & Canada in discussions

•  A public drill – Schools, business and

community organizations

It’s also a conference

• City of Los Angeles will host the International Earthquake Safety Policy conference

• Mayors and emergency managers of the megacities of the world at significant seismic risk

•  Share best practices

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It’s also a rally!

• Art Center College of Design • Marketing campaign and street fair • Negotiating with Nokia Theater •  Tie to community organizations