den syriske opstand - to år senere
DESCRIPTION
Den syriske opstand - to år senere. Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen. A mosaic?. A pattern of distinct entities static in harmony. Or a kaleidoscope?. Sects are managed, to the point of changing much of their content People are moving around physically. Intermarriage Other identities - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Den syriske opstand - to år senere
Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen
A mosaic?
A patternof distinct entities
static
in harmony
Or a kaleidoscope?
• Sects are managed, to the point of changing much of their content
• People are moving around physically.
• Intermarriage• Other identities• Or mixed ones?
Syncretism
Common culture, national identity
Map of Syria’s religionsSect vs religious minority
Other languages and ethnicities
From milla to taifa
The birth of anti-SectarianismSaleh al-Ali Sultan Pasha al-Atrash
The Baath Party: An anti-Sectarian vehicle for Sectarian policies.
The Asads. From Security State to state plunder
Opstanden 2011-
Tidslinje 2011
Marts:6 De 15 drenge i Deraa15. ”Vredens dag” demonstrationer30 Asads tale. Dagen efter
reformer.
April8. ”Jumaat al-Sumud.”
kurderne med.Juni: 2-3 Antalya mødet10-13 Massakre i Jisr Shughur.Den arabiske Liga fordømmer.Juli22 ”Jumaat Khaled ibn al-
Walid. 650.000 i Hama.
Tidslinje
August Ramadan offensivHama, latakiaGolfen agererVesten: Asad
illegitim12 ”Vi bøjer os kun for Gud” 23 SNC dannesSeptember24 ”International beskyttelse”10 FNs sikkerhedsråd, veto21 Tyrkiet bryder forbindelsen
Oktober22 SNC organiserer sig4 Ruslands andet veto7 Fredag for SNC, FSA
NovemberArabiske Liga involveres
Tidslinie 2012
JanuarArabiske Ligas mission forgævesFebruar3 veto i FNs sikkerhedsrådBelejringen af Homs”Friends of Syria”: Annan mission med Rusland om bord26 Forfatningsafstemning
AprilAnnans fredsplan med seks punkter
MajMassakre i Houla
JuliPM afhopperAttentat mod hovedkvarteret
NovemberDamaskus lufthavn ved at faldeKurdernes militser tager over
SNC: et alternativ?
Alternativer til alternativet ?
Doha, november 2012
2013: The three Syrias
Fra SNC til Koalitionen til regeringselim Idriss, Ahmad Jarba, Ahmad Saleh Toma
• Splittelser: MB• Interim regering?• Qatar og Saudi, US• Udspillet
Amerikansk intervention- eller Rusland i førersædet
Militær Status oktober 2013
2013 Sept 24: Bayan no 1
A new millet system?
• Then what about the rafidun and ghulat?
De-centralization
• A good idea, but to which degree?
• Sensible local arrangements• But addressing sects, not
minorities• Cannot follow sectarian
faultlines• Minorities can oppress
minorities.• A Pandora’s box, but it has
been opened?
An upper chamber in Parliament?
• Representatives from all sects, ethnicities.
• Accepting or rejecting the budget, other major decisions, but perhaps with a majority of 2/3
• Point: all groups will be represented, counter-acting majority rule in Parliament
• Risk: dead-lock.
Conclusion
• Although a certain cosmopolitan anti-Sectarianism has thrived under Baath and the Asads, the regime has exploited it rather than supported it
• Anti-sectarism is grounded to Syrian history and society.
• In the later phase of the uprising, Sectarianism has grown to become a major challenge in the future. Syria should find a way of making light institutional concessions to a sectarian reality whilst building on its proud tradition of anti-Sectarianism to overcome it.