Demonstrating the Value-Added of anIndependent School Education

Jefferson Burnett and Amada Torres

(burnett@nais.org) (torres@nais.org)

NAIS

GISA, February 5, 2008

Overview

Our World (Trends) Economy Competition Demographics

Public Perceptions of Independent Schools (Mirror Test)

What This Tells Us and What To Do

Relevancy to You

Your School’s Value-added

Aye, Mates, So what’ll it be?

Pirate Question #1A parent is shopping for schools, stops by to see you, and asks you this question: What is your school’s value-added?

Pirate Question #2A parent is shopping for schools and stops by a public magnet /charter/virtual school and asks this question: What is your school’s value-added?

Pirate Question #3Is this real?

Pirate Question #4Is your school’s value-added proposition good enough in today’s climate?

My family is facing a decision about my…son. He is in a G/T class in our neighborhood elementary school, and he’s been offered admission at a…local private school…Although we realize that there are many factors that can go into the plus/minus columns of both choices, we were wondering how to evaluate the two based strictly on academic rigor…how can we form an opinion of which option is “better” academically? AK from VA

Our World: Trends

Our World: TrendsThe Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumers cut back on their spending at the nation’s retailers in December, wrapping up the weakest sales year since 2002, according to a gloomy report that fanned fears of a recession. (1/16/08 NYT)

Citigroup, the nation’s largest bank, reported a staggering fourth-quarter loss of $9.83 billion on Tuesday and issued a sobering forecast that the housing market and the broader economy still had not bottomed out. (1/16/08 NYT)

Strong evidence is emerging that consumer spending, a bulwark against recession over the last year even as energy prices surged and the housing market sputtered, has begun to slow sharply at every level of the American economy, from the working class to the wealthy. (1/14/08 NYT)

The Economy

Economic TrendsTuition increases, income divide

• Nationally, median tuition for 1st grade increased 31.3% in inflation-adjusted dollars between 1995-96 and 2005-06, which includes a 16.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics

• For 12th grade, median tuition increased 27.6% in the decade between 1995-96 and 2005-06, including a 14.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics

• Rich are getting richer…middle class squeezed…what is the middle class?

Demo-EcoTrendsDisappearing Middle Class

The Middle Class: Dual Income Family $75,000

~ “The Middle Class on the Precipice,”Harvard Magazine, February, 2006

Disposable income

Dual vs. single earners

NAIS SSS Five Year TrendParent’s Financial Statement Filers

Our World: TrendsThe Competition

Ok…now be HONEST…what’s your COMPETITION?

Urban Schools Aiming Higher Than Diploma BOSTON — At Excel High School, in South Boston, teachers do not just prepare students academically for the SAT; they take them on practice walks to the building where the SAT will be given so they won’t get lost on the day of the test. (1/18/08 NYT)

The Competition

Online Schooling Grows, Setting Off a Debate The New York Times (from February 1, 2008)

“Half a million American children take classes online, and many are attending virtual public schools that are competing with local districts for public financing.”

The Competition

Is your COMPETITION… Days of Our Lives ORSecond Life?

Percentage of Students Reporting a B+ or More as Their Current Grade Average

53%

69%

43%

54%51%50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

IndependentSchools

PublicSchools

PrivateReligious

PublicCharter

PublicMagnet

HomeSchool

Not What Parents Were Expecting

Source: 2006 Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey , The Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) -UCLA

Hello!

Our World: TrendsDemographics

Changing School-age Population

Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

Forecasted Growth in Population Age 0-17 Years

Aging of AmericaShift in age distribution

Population of the United States by Age: 1950-2050

38%

26%

58%53%

21%

34%29% 27% 26%

53%

59% 60%54%

8% 9%12% 13%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0-19 years 34% 38% 38% 32% 29% 29% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26%

20-64 years 58% 52% 53% 57% 59% 59% 60% 57% 54% 54% 53%

65+ years 8% 9% 9% 11% 12% 12% 13% 16% 20% 20% 21%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U .S. C ensus Bureau, International Data Base-Population Py ramids, http://w w w .census.gov /ipc/w w w /idbpy r.html

Family Structure

In 2003:

– 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980)

– 23 percent lived only with a mother

– 5 percent lived only with a father

– 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”)

The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010”)

Race and Ethnicity

Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know”)

Gen Xers Parents

Some characteristics of Gen Xers:

– Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial success is important, personal lives take precedence.

– Have spent more time watching television than going to school.

– Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about leading edge technology.

– Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to continue to evaluate options.

– Are a racially diverse group.

– Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.

Observations

K-12 cohort: slower growth nationally, more certain parts of the country

Older citizenry: more grand parents paying tuition, families chipping-in, less inclined to pay more in taxes for public schools?

Demographic look: more Hispanic families, higher educational attainment means more and different expectations of schools?

Financial picture: larger gap rich and poor, hurting emotional middle class, affordability and value of a private school education?

Public Perceptions ofIndependent Schools

What are the elements of a quality school?(general public & high income)

Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

NAIS Public Opinion Poll 3/November 2006

Washington, Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco

Samplings: Parents with school age children/High income (150k or more) parents with school age children

Providing a safe environment

Employing high quality teachers

Maintaining discipline

Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about learning

Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel

Preparing students academically for college

Encouraging parents’ participation

What do you think are some of the keyelements of a quality school?

Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion

94 93 90 89 87 87 87 86 86 85

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nt

Random Sample (n=501)

Providing a safe

environment

Maintaining discipline

Keeping students

motivated and enthusiastic

about learning

Preparing students

academically for college

Supporting a climate that

says it’s okay to study and

excel

Employing high-quality

teachers

Encouraging parents to

participate in their child's

education

Attending to the needs of students

with learning

disabilities

Preparing students for life and career in a

global economy

Preventing drug and

alcohol use

Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions

97 97 95 93 91 8884 84 83 82

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nt

Targeted Sample (n=500)

Providing a safe

environment

Maintaining discipline

#3 Gen Pub

Keeping students

motivated and enthusiastic

about learning#4 Gen Pub

Preparing students

academically for college

#6 Gen Pub

Supporting a climate that

says it’s okay to study and

excel#5 Gen Pub

Employing high-quality

teachers

Encouraging parents to

participate in their child's

education

Using computers and other

technology to enhance

learning

Preparing students for life and career in a

global economy

Preventing drug and

alcohol use#8 Gen Pub

Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

Gap Analysis Among Targeted SamplePercent Rating as

Extremely Important (n=500)

Percent Rating Independent Schools As Excellent(n=360)

Percentage Gap Between General and Independent School Ranking

Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities 76% 24%* -52%

Preventing drug and alcohol use 83% 41%* -42%

Employing high-quality teachers 97% 66%* -31%

Having students drawn from a range of cultures, races and income groups 53% 24%* -29%

Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning 91% 66%* -25%

Offering solid programs in music and the arts 76% 57%* -24%

Providing a safe environment 97% 74%* -23%

Maintaining discipline 88% 65%* -23%

Preparing students for life and a career in a global economy 82% 60%* -22%

Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s education 84% 64%* -20%

Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel 95% 78%* -17%

Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is Extremely Important.Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent. *Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence levelSource: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

Ouch!

Ind Schools vs. Public SchoolsRandom Sample

2006(n=501)

1999(n=751)

Percent Rating Independent Schools As Excellent(n=360)

Percent Rating Private, Non-Parochial Independent Schools As Better Than Public Schools

Providing a safe environment 52% NA 74

Employing high-quality teachers 47% 47% 66

Supporting a climate that says its okay to study and excel 44% 48% 78

Preparing students academically for college 49% 45% 78

Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning 48% 41% 66

Maintaining discipline 57% 63% 65

Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s education 43% 48% 64

Preventing drug and alcohol use 41% 36% 41

Preparing students for life and a career in a global economy 36% 34% 60

Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities 29% 24% 24

Giving individualized attention to each child 59% 65% 65

Look at those numbers: Is this why our new competitors are so

attractive?

Observations

Public thinking: are we offering a product they value; why doesn’t the public know more about us?

What This Tells Usand

What To Do

Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…

Assure Product Quality (i.e., are schools doing what they say they do)? [POP3 results]

– Accreditation. Is your accreditation process designed to help your school confirm/improve quality? What areas do parents (POP3) and your school think are important markers of a quality education? If aligned with your mission, are you doing them? How? Can you get better?

Distinguish from the Competition (i.e., what makes us different from virtual, magnet, charters, etc.)?

– Program/Mission/Faculty. What actually does distinguish your school from the high-end magnet, virtual, charter down the road or in the ethers? Can you identify what those characteristics are? Data to back it up? Have you done a comparison? Can you demonstrate whether you are a 21st Century School?

The Wisdom of the Crowd

The skills of …

The values of…

What’s on your list of skills and values that we should teach for the 21st C.?

Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum

The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required?

• creativity and innovation• facility with the use of ideas and abstractions• self-discipline and organization to manage one’s own work and drive it through to successful conclusion• leadership• ability to function well as a member of a team

• cross-disciplinary knowledge• communication skills• teamwork• analytical reasoning• real world problem-solving skills

Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum

The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required?

• disciplined mind (expertise in a field)• synthesizing mind (scanning and weaving into coherence)• creating mind (discovery and innovation)• respectful mind (open mindedness and inclusiveness)• ethical mind (moral courage)Multiple

Intelligences

Who’s Who of Key Players

Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…

Articulate your VAP (i.e., how do we demonstrate that we’re worth it?)

– Accountability. How is your school accountable to its students and parents? What is your value-added? How can you prove it? (Show me the money!) [NAIS Accountability Initiative/NAIS Survey Builder]

Accountability Tools Explored by NAISTOOL ADMINISTERED BY TYPE

1 SAT College Board Standardized Testing

2 High School Survey of Student Engagement (HSSSE)

Indiana University Student Survey

3 CIRP Freshmen Survey Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) Student Survey

4 Your First College Year (YFCY) Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) Student Survey

5 College Senior Survey (CSS) Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) Student Survey

6 Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA) Value-Added Test

7 Measure of Academic Proficiency and Progress (MAPP)

Educational Testing Service (ETS) Value-Added Test

8 College and Work Readiness Assessment (CWRA)

Council for Aid to Education (CAE) Value-Added Test

9 College Placement Study Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS) Institutional Effectiveness Survey

10 Alumni Assessment Survey Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS) Institutional Effectiveness Survey

11 Parent Satisfaction Survey Nat. Assoc. of Independent Schools (NAIS) Institutional Effectiveness Survey

12 Data Collection of School Outcomes National Association of Independent Schools (NAIS)

School Ratios

13 Accountability Templates Nat. Assoc. of State Univ. and Land-Grant Colleges (NASULGC) Nat. Assoc. of Independent Colleges and Univ. (NAICU)

Templates

HSSSE—Sample Test Items

MAP

CWRA

NAIS Survey Builder

NAIS Survey Builder

U-CAN/Dept of ED

Key Questions/Issues…How Do You…

Be Informed/Know Your Marketplace/Enhance School Marketing (i.e., who we are and what we do)

– Marketing. What do you know about trends nationally, regionally, locally? Are you tracking the demographics? [NAIS Demographic Center] What are your messages? How are you getting them out there? [NAIS Advocacy Resources]

Messaging

Communicate what the school does well so it will resonate with the audience—for NAIS schools, that would be primarily affluent families. For example:

– Children taught by high quality teachers

– Curriculum includes strong arts/music

– School provides a safe environment

– Curriculum/programs prepare students for life and career

– Add your value-added piece (measurement)

Why is this Relevant to You?

Because you are responsible for marketing your school to prospective families and students.

Because you are responsible for increasing alumni and parental support of, and involvement in, the institution.

Because you are responsible for enhancing the visibility and public perception of the school.

Because each of you need to work as a team with faculty, parents, and students; and have a consistent approach when showing the value-added of your school.

Because you need hard data to prove that you ‘walk the talk.’

Specifically, Hockfield called on private college leaders to better articulate to lawmakers exactly how their institutions are providing a public good, and why college officials — not the federal government — should continue to set their own policies on spending and pricing.

“Our story isn’t well understood by Congress or the public,” Hockfield said. “We need to make our case as individual leaders.”

Specifically, Hockfield called on private college leaders to better articulate to lawmakers exactly how their institutions are providing a public good, and why college officials — not the federal government — should continue to set their own policies on spending and pricing.

“Our story isn’t well understood by Congress or the public,” Hockfield said. “We need to make our case as individual leaders.”