DemographyDemography•

Dr Heba Khodary AllamDr Heba Khodary Allam

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Major demographic processes: Population Dynamics

•Fertility•Mortality•Migration

I - Fertility (Natality)Fertility is the actual reproductive performance of a woman or a group of women. A woman's reproductive period is roughly from 15 to 49 years of age.•Fertility indicators

•Crude birth rate•Fecundity rate•General fertility rate•Age specific fertility rate•Total fertility rate

Fertility statistics

• Live Birth (WHO):- any product of conception regardless of the period of gestation which after complete expulsion or extraction from the uterus of the mother shows any signs of life whether or not the umbilical cord is cut or the placenta is detached.

Signs of life:

• E.g. heart beats, pulsations in the cord, respiration and voluntary muscle movements.

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Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Is the simplest indicator of fertility .

The Crude Birth rate =The total number of live births in a year & locality X 1000The estimated midyear population in the same year & locality

…=Live Births/ 1000 population in a year. CBR in Egypt (year 2008) = 29.7 LB/1000

population.CBR is a crude index of fertility as it relates births to total population (including males and females outside the reproductive age period, as well as unmarried females). However, it is useful in

(i) making annual comparisons(ii) to detect trends in fertility in a given country and (iii) in comparing different populations.

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General fertility rate (GFR)The total number of live births in a year & locality X 1000The number of women in child bearing period (15-49) years in the same

year & locality

= …Live birth/1000 female population ages 15-49.

It is a refinement of the crude birth rate. It relates births to

women in the child bearing period (15-49 years). It

eliminates the influence of the difference in the proportion

of males in the population.

The weakness of GFR is that it does not take into account

(a) the marital status and

(b) the differences in fertility levels in various age groups of

reproductive period.

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Age specific fertility rate (ASFR)The maximum fertility occurs between 25-35 years. The whole reproductive life of females (15-49 years) is divided into seven age groups, each of five years duration (namely 15-19, 20-24 years, … etc). There are seven age specific fertility rates.

Age specific fertility rate =

The total number of live births from women in the specific age group in a X1000

locality______________________________________________________________ The number of women in the same specific age group in the same year &

locality

= …Live births/1000 female population in specified age group.

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Fecundity Rate (Marital Fertility Rate):

It is calculated as:

No. of live births in a certain area and year x 1000

-------------------------------------------------- No. of married women (15-49 years) in the same area and year

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Total fertility rate (TFR):It is a hypothetical measure of fertility. It is computed by summing the current seven age specific fertility rates of the year of calculation. To cover the whole reproductive life. Then this summation is multiplied by 5. Calculated as such, this rate represents the average number of children a woman would have, if she passed through her reproductive years bearing children at the same rates (of a specific year) as the women in each age group.TFR =….children born/woman.

In developed countries the TFR is under 2.0. In developing countries the TFR is over 6.0 per women.

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DemographyIt is the science that studies human population (Demos = population, Graphy = picture). Importance of Demographic data

•Health status of a community depends upon the dynamic relationship between number of people, their composition& distribution•Planning of health services can be guided by demographic variables, for example: How many health units do we need? How to distribute them in the community in order to be accessible to the target population? What type of manpower is needed?

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The elements of demography: Size,Composition and,Distribution.These elements are affected by three main processes namely, fertility, mortality and migration.

• Census Entails enumeration of all persons in the community.

• Census Population population of the year in which census has taken.

• Estimated Population it is the population of the intercensus years; it is obtained by different mathematical methods.

• Mid year population the population, whether of the census or estimated population of a given year that is calculated in the mid of the year (1 July).

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Census should have the following characteristics:

Each individual enumerated separately and each individual characteristic is recorded separately.

Enumeration takes place within a defined and reasonably brief period and in a defined time period.

The census needs considerabl organization, a vast preparation and long time to analyze the results so enumeration is repeated at regular time intervals. In Egypt census is usually taken every ten years.

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Value of census:

• It provides full picture of the characteristics of studied population.

• It provides base line data for calculation of population and statistical indices.

• It allows recognition of population problem (eg unemployment) provides data for measuring public health problems.

• It helps in planning of all community programs (economic, social, health....).

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Life expectancyLife expectancy

The average number of years likely to be lived by a person, who is subjected to mortality risks of the whole community at any given time.

Expectation of life is increased steadily over the last 100 years all over the world due to:

• 1. Improved socioeconomic conditions.• 2. Therapeutics.• 3. Preventive medicine.

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Fertility MotivesFertility Motives• Factors associated with high fertility

motives:

1. Increased infant and child mortality.

2. Economic factors: more children help to improve the income of the family by being employed at very young age.

3. Family welfare: there is a common belief that large families are stronger. Also sons will carry the family name.

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4.Large family makes the marriage happier, will prevent divorce and give more respect in the community.

5.Large family is the God's will.

6.Large family gives welfare and strength to the community and nation.

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Factors associated with Low fertility motives

1. To preserve the health of the mother and children.

2. For better caring of the children who will get a better chance in life.

3. For family welfare, to give better family life and a higher standard of living.

4. For community development: to help the community meet the needs of the population for good education and public services.

5. To avoid problem of overpopulation.

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Effect of rapid population growth rate on national development:

1. Food situation: - food production has not sufficiently increased to cope with population growth resulting in increase in the food gap and malnutrition among the fast growing population.

2. Health/ medical services: - the rapid increase in the population has overtaken improvements in health/medical services.

3. Education opportunities: improvement of the capacity and quality of our educational system has been hampered by the rapid increase of the school age population.

4. Employment opportunities: rapid population growth has made it difficult to increase employment opportunities.

5. Social services: are impaired by overpopulation.

6. Distribution of income wealth: evidently the share of the individual families from the growth national production will be affected by the increase in population number.

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Management of the overpopulation problem:

Long-term policy: long-term policy involves rising of the socioeconomic standard of the country that would manage the majority of the fertility motives.

Short-term policy: it includes: • Birth control through family planning programs.• Promoting national production and investments.

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