Demography & Indicators

Dr. Deepak Upadhyay

Dept. 0f Community Medicine

Introduction

▪ DEFINITION – Demography is the scientific study of humanpopulation which includes the study of changes in populationsizes its composition and distribution

▪ 3 Phenomena in demography: Change inPopulation size – Growth or DeclineComposition of populationDistribution of population in space

5 Processes in demography :FertilityMortalityMarriageMigrationSocial mobility.

Demographic Process

Fertility

Mortality

MarriageMigration

Social Mobility

Demographic Cycle(Changes in population size and composition due to increase or decrease in

no of births and deaths)

5 STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

Stage BR DR Examples

I High Stationary

India till 1920

II Early Expanding

+ South Asia & Africa

III Late Expanding

India, China,Singapore

IV Low Stationary

UK, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium

V Declining Germany & Hungary

INDIA 1920 High Stationary

INDIA PRESENT Late Expanding

High Stationary

Early Expanding

Late Expanding

Low Stationary

Declining

Demographic Indicators

Population Size

Population Density

Age and Sex Composition

Sex Ratio

Dependency Ratio

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Growth Rate

Life Expectancy at Birth

Mortality & Fertility Rate

Population Statistics

Vital Statistics(Population Dynamics)

DEMOGRAPHIC

INDICATORS

Population size

▪ India has 2.4% world land area & 17% of world’s population.

▪ Year 1921- “Big divide”.

▪ India’s population currently increasing at rate of 16 million/yr.

HISTORICAL POPULATION OF INDIA

Year Population (Millions)

1901 238

1911 252

1921 251

1931 279

1941 318

1951 361

1961 439

1971 548

1981 683

1991 846

2001 1028

2011 1210

Population projection:If our population continuesto grow at this rate:

By 2050 India’s populationwill be 1.53 billion.

Population Density

▪ Population DensityIndia – 382 per km2 (Census 2011)UP – 828 per km2 (Census 2011)

(Ranked 8th)

Highest – Delhi (11,297)Lowest – Arunachal Pradesh (17)

Age & Sex Composition

AGE PYRAMID:

• Represents Age structure of a population.

• The age pyramid of India is typical of developing countries i.e. with a“BROAD BASE” and “TAPERING TOP”.

Proportion of population < 14 yrs. - “DECLININGTrend” .

Proportion of the elderly “INCREASING”.This Imposes a greater BURDEN on Health

services in India.

Source: Census 2011

SEX RATIO Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 malesin the population.The sex ratio in the country has always remained unfavorableto females.

Census year Sex ratio(Females per 1000 males)

1951 946

1961 941

1971 930

1981 934

1991 927

2001 933

2011 940

Causes of low sex ratio:

Strong Male child preference

Consequent gender Inequities

Neglect of the girl child Female infanticide Female foeticide High MMR Male bias in population

enumeration.

ALARMING: Census 2011marks a considerable fall inchild sex ratio (0-6 yrs. ) andhas reached an all time low of914 since 1961.

Dependency Ratio 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =0−14 years + 65 years & above

15 𝑡𝑜 65 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS – A decline in the TDR d/t- Decline in

fertility. Key factor in Economic development.

DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN – Increase in the TDR. Cause of Economic Burden.

For the Year 2010:• Young Age dependency Ratio-47.9%• Old Age dependency Ratio-7.7%

Family SizeTotal number of children borne by a women at apoint in time during her child bearing age (15 to 45years).

Long term goal NRR=1

“2 Child Family Norm”

Total fertility rate (TFR) gives an idea of total family size.

TFR in India: 2.68 (NFHS-3).

Family size depends upon

Duration of marriage

Education of couple

No. of live births

Contraception method

Socioeconomic status etc

Urbanization

Mass migration of rural population into urban centers resulting in increasingthe urban population & growth of cities.

Cause of urbanization: “MIGRATION” d/t- Better employment opportunities. Better living standards. Better availability of social services like Education, Health, Transport,

Entertainment etc.

CENSUS 2011 Rural Population(millions)

Urban Population (millions)

Increase in Urban population (%)

INDIA 833.1 377.1 3.35

LITERACY & EDUCATION

A person (7 yrs. or more) is considered as literate if he or she can read & write with understanding in any language.

Highest Literacy Rate in India- KERALA (93.91).

Lowest - Bihar (Lit. Rate- 63.82%) & Arunachal Pradesh (Lit. Rate-66.9%)

Literacy Rates:

State Male Female Total

India 82.14 65.46 74.04

Uttar Pradesh

79.24 59.26 69.72

Kerala 96.02 91.98 93.91

18.33

28.334.45

43.57

52.21

65.38

74.04

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Literacy Rate in India

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Life Expectancy

• Indicator ofcountry’s level ofdevelopment &overall healthstatus of thepopulation.”

• The value for Lifeexpectancy atbirth, total(years) in Indiawas 66.2 as of2012.

Year Males Females

1901 23.63 23.96

1951 32.45 31.66

1961 41.89 40.55

1971 46.40 44.70

1981 54.10 54.70

1991 59.70 60.90

2001 63.90 66.90

2009 63 66

2011 64.3 73.5

Expectation of life - At a given age is the average numberof years which a person of that age may expect to live,according to the mortality pattern prevalent in thatcountry.

Expectation of life at birth (India):

AT A GLANCE:

REFERENCES: CENSUS 2011