ReDorb Demographics, youth and tourism The purpose of this report is to look at the impact of youth on tourism and the tourist industry, not just as travellers but also as employees. Alan Jefferson, International Marketing Director and Deputy Chief Executive of the British Tourist Authority, considers demographic trends which have implications for tourism and demonstrates the importance of the youth segment for the UK’S incoming tourist industry. In Europe the proportion of young people is declining and more must be encouraged to pursue higher education as the demand for professional workers increases.

Among the more important macro trends vitally important for tourism arl the demographic ones such as population growth, life expectancy and age profile. Those who are aware of what changes are afoot will waste no effort on fighting them but rather will look for marketing opportunities within them.

The population of Australia is pre- dicted to grow modestly (23.6% be- tween 1985 and 2010) and again there will be a shift in the age profile - an increase in seniors and a decrease in those less than 14.

Demographics

The populations of both Canada and the USA will show moderate growth, forecasts suggest by about one-fifth, between 1985 and 2010. The propor- tion of the population up to 14 will remain fairly static, while retired peo- ple (over 64) will account for a larger share of the total population. By 1995 about one in eight Americans will be senior citizens. Populations of Latin American countries are expected to grow twice as fast - the O-14 years range will continue to account for more than one-third of the popula- tion, while only about one in 20 will be over 64.

In the Middle East and Africa population growth is likely to be spec- tacular - doubling or even trebling in some cases. However famine, war and AIDS could be set to curtail a popula- tion explosion which would be difficult to sustain. The population of Kenya, for example, is currently predicted to grow from just over 20 million in 1985 to nearly 56 million in 2010.

Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to have much larger populations - in some cases doubling between 1985 and 2010. About one-third of these populations will be under 14, while people over 64 will represent only a small proportion of the total popuia- tion - much the same pattern as pre- dicted for Latin America. Japan is the most rapidly aging population in the world - one in 10 were over 64 in 1985 and this is forecast to increase to just over one in seven by 2010. The per- centage of the Japanese population younger than 14 is forecast to decrease from 21.8% in 1985 to 18.2% in 1995.

Undoubtedly Europe will continue to dominate the international travel picture in the foreseeable future. Prac- tically all Western Europeans enjoy above average standards of living compared with world standards. There are significant populations in Eastern Europe emerging from com- munism with its centralized controls but these are not yet significant in terms of potential international travellers. Furthermore there are sig- nificant proportions of populations in Eastern Europe whose priorities as consumers do not match those of de- veloped countries, eg about 60 million Muslims in Turkey and Yugoslavia. Religions and political ideologies are important factors in interpreting de- mographic trends.

The population of the European Community is growing slowly and in- deed the populations of Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Italy are de- clining. Only in Ireland and Portugal are populations forecast to grow in double figures between 1985 and 2010. Birth rates in Western Europe have

TOURISM MANAGEMENT March 1991

fallen as a result of economic reces- sion, increasing sophistication and advances in birth control. The drop in the birth rate during the 1970s reces- sion years will have a significant im- pact in the next two decades. Accord- ing to EC forecasts the number of EC residents between 15 and 25 will fall by 15% between 1985 and 1995 with higher than average falls in Germany, Scandinavia, the UK and Benelux countries. In the short term the 25-45 age group will increase in size between now and 1995 and while this is an affluent sector at the peak of its earn- ing power, there are many demands on these earnings with families grow- ing up. However couples are tending to postpone marriage and the start of families. The average child-bearing age is increasing in Wpstern Europe (except in Ireland, Greece and Por- tugal) as well as in Eastern Europe.

By the end of the 20th century one- quarter of Europeans will be over the age of 55. Improved standards of medicine have raised life expectancy for both males and females - the aver- age age of death has increased by about 10 years since 1945. This in- creasingly healthy and longer living segment is also tending to retire ear- lier from their working careers, either because of the pressures of unemploy- ment or because increasingly caring and affluent societies feel that the elderly should not have to work so long. In 1988 the average legal retire- ment age for men in Western Europe was 62.5 years, and for women 58 years. The biggest changes in the 1990s will be record numbers of senior citizens not only in Europe but in most developed countries in the world.

On the other hand, all over Europe there will be far fewer young people, but about one in five of them will go on to higher education. The fall in the

Table 1. IPS figures for UK incoming tourism by age.

Age (years) 1972 1978 1984 1988

O-15 7 0 10 9 16-24 22 21 19 17 25-54

I

69 60 57 61 55-64 a 10 9 > 65 2 3 4 4

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Table 2. Age distribution - total market 1988.’

Age grow O-15 16-24 25-54 55-64 > 65

Total

visits Nights Spend Average stay Average spend Average spend x 1oJ % x l@ % x 106 % (nights) (E w day) (f per visit)

1356 9.3 18.7 11.5 353 6.1 13.8 19 260 2 469 17.0 39.8 24.5 831 14.3 16.1 21 337 8803 60.5 79.1 48.7 3 742 64.3 10.8 36 387 1 345 9.2 15.1 9.3 613 10.5 11.2 41 456

575 4.0 9.6 5.9 282 4.9 16.7 29 491

14548 100 162.2 100 5 823 100 11.2 36 400

Note: aexcluding residents of the Irish Republic.

birth rate in the 1970s will result in far fewer teenagers in 1995. At the same time the number of jobs in Europe demanding cerebral skills is increas- ing, while those demanding manual skills is declining. The Warwick Insti- tute for Employment Research esti- mated that of 1.7 million new jobs expected in the UK by 1995, one million will be professional or equiva- lent while 400 000 manual jobs will have disappeared by then. This pat- tern will be mirrored in other Western European countries. Competition for the better educated will intensify and there will be an increased incentive to be better educated.

appeal for the senior citizen, or it may be the demographic trends are catch- ing up with the marketplace. They are still an important group whose value is not simply confined to the immediate earnings against the travel account, the livelihood of whole sectors of the industry, or even their contribution to HM Treasury in terms of VAT and duty derived from their spend.

Youth tourism in the UK

A superficial examination of statistics derived from the International Passen- ger Survey (IPS) will show just how important the youth market is for the UK’s incoming tourism business, accounting as it does for more than one-quarter of visits, more than one- third of nights and one-fifth of spend in 1988.’ They are longer stayers but lower spenders than average.

Table 2 shows that while they account for one in four of all visits they do in fact tend to stay longer than average. In fact the 16-24 group accounts for one in four of all nights, leaving aside those under 16. These 16-24-year-olds stayed on average 16.1 nights in 1988 compared with an average of 11.2 nights for all visits and were only surpassed by the seniors of over 65, who stayed on average 16.7 nights. Average spend per day is also lower than average but not too much behind the over 65 group (f21 com- pared with f29). The middle age

groups have a fair proportion of busi- ness travellers (26% of all visits to the UK in 1988) which also has the effect of pulling up the average daily spend. These juniors may not spend in the same way as the seniors but they are not far behind in total daily spend. They are generally not staying in four- star hotels but rather in youth accom- modation or en famille but they do spend more than average on entertain- ment and have a keen interest in shop-

ping. Juniors and seniors alike, of course, stay with friends and relatives, but VFR traffic has a comparatively old age profile. Where do they come from?

Table 3 shows the importance of the EC and indeed Europe generally. French visitors to the UK have the youngest age profile of all - the tradi- tional school children’s visit to the UK is reflected in the 24% of the French market accounted for by the O-15 group - a far higher proportion than

1980-1989

For statistical purposes IPS takes under 25 as the age limit representing the youth segment with two age brack- ets - up to 15 years of age and then 16 to 24. Looking back over almost 20 years in Table 1 one can see that during the 1970s and into the early 1980s youth travellers accounted for 29% of total visits pretty consistently. In more recent years, however, they have been losing share and the seniors are beginning to take over. Figure 1 shows that between 1980 and 1989 the proportion under 25 dropped 1.7% while that over 55 picked up 1.4%. This may have been because the UK has in recent years lost its appeal for the young traveller while gaining in

45

Age

40 q 1980

f$j 1989 35

38.8

30

25 23.8

10

5

Figure

Under 16 16-24 25-34

1. Age profile of overseas visitors.

35-54 55-64 65 +

74 TOURISM MANAGEMENT March 1991

anywhere else [West] Germany and Italy are especially strong in the 16-24

group, as are Spain, France and Switzerland. Outside Europe the 16- 24 age group is particularly prominent in the Japanese market. So why do they come?

Almost half of the holiday inclusive visits to the UK is accounted for by the youth segment. Only 3% of business visits but a massive 86% of all visits to the UK for study purposes come from this group (see Table 4). As more countries join the EC and as English increasingly becomes the international language of communication we see the potential market for English language study growing in tandem. This accounts for the importance of the youth segment in European markets compared with North America, for example. 0

We need to think of the English language student as a potential repeat visitor - a consumer trainee who, given a happy and satisfying experi- ence as a student, will return again and again as a leisure traveller. The UK enjoys an extremely high brand loyalty with almost 70% repeat busi- ness.

The UK is not alone in providing English language courses - Ireland, Cyprus and Malta in Europe, Austra- lia and New Zealand compete in Asian markets, and the USA in Latin American markets. Following the momentous recent events in Eastern Europe The Netherlands was offering English language study in these newly emerging markets. These countries of Eastern Europe have been through a period of rapid political change and

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Table 3. Youth visits distribution - area of residence 1988 (a).

North Rest of Rest of

Age group Total America EC Western Europa world

O-15 9.3 5.1 13.0 6.6 6.8 16-24 17.0 12.5 20.2 16.0 13.7

are now espousing the virtues of free- market economies, While political re- form can be achieved relatively quick- ly, industriai and economic reform is more uncertain and has a much longer time scale. What is certain is that economic revival in Eastern Europe will be dependent on success in inter- national trading. English is increasing- ly the language of international trad- ing and so English language study is, and will be, a saleable product.

So today’s English language student is not just tomorrow’s leisure traveller but tomorrow’s businessman or businesswoman too. And once again the satisfying experience can pay off in subsequent years in all sorts of British export activity. Trade follows tourism. The ripple effect from the English language course has a staggering fu- ture potential quite apart from the immediate earnings from the course itself.

Implications for tourism

As Third World countries begin to emerge as economic forces there will be increasing demand for study, not just English language study but man- agement and business studies too. As youth workers become scarcer in the developed world their value to em- ployers will increase. They will com- mand higher remuneration and in the

Table 4. Youth visits distribution - purpose of visit.

Holiday Holiday Age group independent inclusive Business VFR Studies Miscellaneous Total

O-15 11 19 0 10 30 6 9 16-24 20 27 3 15 56 21 17

full knowledge of their marketability they will almost certainly want to undertake extensive travels, perhaps as much as a year, between finishing full-time education and taking up a career. So there will be two important markets from this age group - study and leisure travel, and I believe both will become increasingly important.

There is a down side, however. The shortage of young people in Western Europe will have an impact on the tourism industry in particular. Hotels and restaurants may well be unable to attract the right calibre of staff and it behoves the industry to start thinking about it now, to organize training courses, to develop loyalty incentives and so on to recruit and keep staff. Single Europe and a larger single Europe may provide some of the answers. On the other hand the work ethic of communist societies will take many decades to overcome. A senior Soviet official visiting Brussels recent- ly warned the EC that from next year as many as three million Soviet citizens annually may pour westwards in search of employment. That may not be the answer.

Alan Jefferson British Tourist Authority

Tbames Tower Black’s Road

London W6 9EL, UK

Note ‘The annual International Passenger Sur- vey is a continuous large-scale survey of visitors entering and leaving the UK, spon- sored and commissioned by the UK De- partment of Employment. Figures for the Republic of Ireland are not included.

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