Demographic trends in Poland over the past 25 years

Krzysztof Tymicki

Demography Unit, Warsaw School of Economics

Driving forces behind demographic trends in Visegrad countries: The

role of migration and family formation

10-11 September 2015, Prague

Crude rate of total population change 5 period moving averages (Source: Eurostat)

The crude rate of population change is the ratio of the population change during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 persons. Population change is the difference between the population sizes on 1 January of two consecutive years.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

European Union (28 countries)

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Slovakia

Approx. 13% of

EU’s population in

2012

The crude rate of population change is the ratio of the population change during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 persons. Population change is the difference between the population sizes on 1 January of two consecutive years.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

European Union (28 countries)

Germany (including former GDR)

France

Italy

United Kingdom

Approx. 40% of

EU’s population in

2012

Crude rate of total population change 5 period moving averages (Source: Eurostat)

Changes in population age structure: Poland vs. EU average compared

33,2 27,2 24,1 25,3

19,8 15,3 15

61 64,6 65,7 64,7

68,1 71,1 70,1

5,8 8,2 10,2 10 12,1 13,6 14,9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

65+ (PL)

15-64 (PL)

0-14 (PL)

0-14+ EU average

65+ EU average

Changes in population age structure Dependency ratio: pop. aged 0-14 and 65+ to pop. aged 15-64

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

EU average

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Slovakia

Changes in population age structure Dependency ratio: pop. aged 0-14 and 65+ to pop. aged 15-64

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

EU average

Germany

(including

former GDR)Spain

France

Italy

United Kingdom

Changes in population age structure Projections

33,2 27,2 24,1 25,3

19,8 15,3 15 15,3 13,7 12,6 13,2 13 12,9 13,5

61

64,6 65,7 64,7

68,1 71,1 70,1 66,7

63,7 62,4

57,2 54,1 54,8 54,2

5,8 8,2 10,2 10 12,1 13,6 14,9 18 22,6 24,9

29,7 32,9 32,4 32,3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2014

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

65+ (PL)

15-64 (PL)

0-14 (PL)

Changes in population age structure Projections of dependency ratios

26,4 29,4

35,1 39,2

45,3

49,6 50,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Total Dep. Ratio

Young-age Dep. Ratio

Old-age Dep. Ratio

Median Age of Population

Changes in mortality patterns Life expectancy at birth

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

Females

average

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

Males

average

70,6

67,2

81,2 73,

1

Average calculated for: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany (including former GDR), Estonia, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland (Source: Eurostat)

15% growth in life exp. at birth for Polish women between 1960 and 2013 (10,6 years). Growth for avearge from 11

countries: 13% (9,7 years)

12% growth in life exp. at birth for Polish men between 1960 and 2013 (8 years). Growth for avearge from 11 countries:

13% (9 years)

Changes in fertility patterns Period Total Fertility Rates 1960-2013

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

average EUR*

Poland

France

Portugal

Ireland

Denmark

Slovakia

*calculated for: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, France, Italy, Hungary, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Finland, Norway, Switzerland

Changes in fertility patterns Cohort fertility rates

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

20 25 30 35

Co

mp

lete

d f

erti

lity

Age

1946

1956

1963

1966

1971

1976

1980

Source: own calculations based on CSO registration data

below 2 at age 35

Below 1 at age 25

Below 1 at age 35

PL

AT

NO

CH

BG PT

HU

RUS

CR

JP

SK

US

FI

NL

SE

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2,0

2,1

5,0

%

7,5

%

10,0

%

12,5

%

15,0

%

17,5

%

20,0

%

22,5

%

25,0

%

27,5

%

Co

mp

lete

d f

erti

lity

by a

ge 4

0

% of childless women by age 40

Changes in fertility patterns Completed fertility and childlessness: cohort 1969

Source: Human Fertility Database

average

ave

rage

Changes in fertility and nuptiality patterns % of Extramarital births

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Iceland

Denmark

Hungary

Czech

Republic

Slovakia

Italy

Poland

Extramarital births and bridal

pregnancies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

193

1-1

93

6

193

7-1

94

2

194

3-1

94

8

194

9-1

95

4

195

5-1

96

0

196

1-1

96

6

196

7-1

97

2

197

3-1

97

8

197

9+

Hungary France Poland

9%

9%

9%

10%

10%

10%

10%

11%

13%

14%

14%

15%

16%

17%

16%

17%

18%

20%

22%

23%

25%

25%

26%

26%

26%

27%

51%

52%

52%

52%

53%

54%

53%

51%

49%

48%

47%

46%

45%

44%

44%

42%

40%

37%

35%

34%

32%

32%

31%

31%

28%

26%

40%

40%

39%

38%

37%

36%

37%

38%

38%

38%

38%

39%

39%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

43%

43%

43%

43%

43%

43%

45%

48%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

first births conceived maritally

first births conceived pre-maritally (bridal pregnancy)

first birth extramarital

Distribution of births conceived extramaritally but

delivered in marriage by month of pregnancy

during wedding

Source: Registration of births, Central Statistical Office, Poland

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0 1 3 4 6 7 9

miesiąc ciąży

1985

Month of pregnancy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0 1 3 5 6 8

miesiąc ciąży

2009

Distribution of births conceived extramaritally but

delivered in marriage by month of pregnancy

during wedding

Source: Registration of births, Central Statistical Office, Poland

Month of pregnancy

Future of Population trends in Poland

Further changes in population structure leading to

decrease in number of youth, increasing number of old

Increase in life expectancy for both males and females

up to the limit marked by the most advanced

countries

Fertility as measured by TFR around level of 1,5.

Further postponement of age at first childbearing,

declining transition to third and second parity

Potentially increasing childlesness

Proliferation of informal unions