Demographic Trends Affecting CitiesPopulation Change

Outline

Trends Implications for cities Checklist for cities Information resources

Trends

Minnesota continues to grow 1 million more people by 2030; 2

million more by 2060

Midwest neighbors and other cold weather states seeing population declines

Trends

3.8 4.14.4

4.95.5

5.96.3 6.5 6.8 7.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Pro

ject

ed P

opul

atio

n (M

illio

ns)

State Demographer projection

Minnesota population growth through 2060

Trends

2000-2005 population growth 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing

of the nation 40% of state’s population lives in metro

suburbs; 57% of 2000-05 growth 34% of state’s population lives in greater MN;

only 13% of 2000-05 growth

Trends

14.6%1.6%

39.4%57.3%

5.4%

20.8%6.6%

7.1%

13.2%

34.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of 2005Population

Share of Change 2000-05

Rest of State

Six Regional Centers

Collar

Suburbs

Core Cities

Met Council and State Demographer estimates.

Suburbs and collar counties account for less than half of population but 77% of growth

Trends

Regional trends projected through 2030: Twin Cities will grow by 800,000 32% more people will live in central lakes

region—mostly older adults Central lakes region only region to see

significant growth in residents under 19 North and northwest regions will grow by

14%, reversing long trend of no growth In south and southwest regions, the only

population growth will be among residents over 65

Implications for Cities

Cities with no growth or population loss School closures Business closures; job losses Declining tax base

Less investment in infrastructure No new services Pressure to find new ways to deliver services

Difficulty filling elected and appointed positions

Implications for Cities

Cities expecting growth: New demand for services and

infrastructure New kinds of service needs depending

on changing population (e.g. more older residents, more ethnic diversity)

Finding fair distribution of burden for paying for growth among new and old residents

Implications for Cities

Density issues Trends of people moving to low-density areas

(e.g. lakes areas) Cost of service delivery can be higher in low-

density areas Urban-style development in formerly low-

density areas increases pressure for expanding infrastructure and services

Implications for Cities

City employment City employment affected by whether region

is stable, growing, or shrinking in population Declining areas will face difficulties filling

vacancies Growing cities will face competition from

private sector to find new employees Aging and ethnic diversity trend complicate

employment issues

Checklist for Cities

What is role of city in region What are factors in people’s location

decisions How do we enter partnerships with

other entities to provide services

Checklist for Cities

What are population projections How will role of city affect growth trend Can we change the future How will need and demand for services

change Can we partner with other entities to meet

those demands What are future housing needs; what type

of housing will residents want

Checklist for Cities

What will be impact on property values and tax base

How does size and composition of our workforce compare to future needs

What is retirement pattern of current workers

What is our workforce plan to recruit and retain staff

Resources

Office of State Demographer www.demography.state.mn.us

League of Minnesota Cities www.lmc.org