demographic sensitivity analysis...1960-2000 from u.s. census 2010-2030 from ris 2030 demographic...
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Development WorkshopJuly 14, 2005
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Nor
th C
entra
l Tex
as C
ounc
il of
Gov
ernm
ents
Transportation Department
1. Maintain consistent population and employment control totals throughout all scenarios.
2. Sensitivity Analysis of 2030 transportation system to changing population and employment trends occurring between 2010 and 2030.
3. Determine policy implications for land use development and the transportation system.
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis
Management & Operations(ITS,TSM/TDM,
Bike/Ped)
Rail and Bus
Freeway/Tollwayand ArterialFi
nanc
ial/A
ir Q
ualit
y C
onst
rain
t
Inte
rmod
al P
lann
ing
Effo
rts
=
+
Sust
aina
ble
Dev
elop
men
t Po
licie
s an
d In
itiat
ives
InfrastructureMaintenance
+
HOV+
+
Plan
Metropolitan Transportation PlanDevelopment Process
Base Demographic Forecast
April 2003 Establish Baseline Forecast
On-Going Monitor Population and Employment Trends
As Needed Develop Alternative Futures for Specific Projects
On-Going Conduct Demographic Sensitivity Analysis with Transportation Model
On-Going Develop Alternative Market Assumptions for Different Growth Scenarios
July 2005 RTC Workshop
Upcoming STTC/Public Involvement
Upcoming Develop Alternative Forecasts
Upcoming Model Alternative Forecasts and Evaluate/Apply Results
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisKey Milestones
Annual Regional Growth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth Natural Increase
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
5,000
205,000
405,000
605,000
805,000
1,005,000
1,205,000
1,405,000
1,605,000
1,805,000
2,005,000
2,205,000
2,405,000
2,605,000
2,805,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CollinDallasDentonEllisJohnsonKaufmanParkerRockwallTarrantWise
1960 - 2030 Population Growth by County
Note:1960-2000 from U.S. Census
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
5,000
205,000
405,000
605,000
805,000
1,005,000
1,205,000
1,405,000
1,605,000
1,805,000
2,005,000
2,205,000
2,405,000
2,605,000
2,805,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CollinDallasDentonEllisJohnsonKaufmanParkerRockwallTarrantWise
1960 - 2030 Population Growth by County
2005 NCTCOGPopulation Estimate
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
Note:1960-2000 from U.S. Census
5,000
205,000
405,000
605,000
805,000
1,005,000
1,205,000
1,405,000
1,605,000
1,805,000
2,005,000
2,205,000
2,405,000
2,605,000
2,805,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CollinDallasDentonEllisJohnsonKaufmanParkerRockwallTarrantWise
1960 - 2030 Population Growth by County
2005 NCTCOGPopulation Estimate
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
Note:1960-2000 from U.S. Census
2010-2030 from RIS 2030 Demographic Forecast.
5,000
205,000
405,000
605,000
805,000
1,005,000
1,205,000
1,405,000
1,605,000
1,805,000
2,005,000
2,205,000
2,405,000
2,605,000
2,805,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CollinDallasDentonEllisJohnsonKaufmanParkerRockwallTarrantWise
1960 - 2030 Population Growth by County
2005 NCTCOGPopulation Estimate
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
Note:1960-2000 from U.S. Census
2010-2030 from RIS 2030 Demographic Forecast.
5,000
205,000
405,000
605,000
805,000
1,005,000
1,205,000
1,405,000
1,605,000
1,805,000
2,005,000
2,205,000
2,405,000
2,605,000
2,805,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CollinDallasDentonEllisJohnsonKaufmanParkerRockwallTarrantWise
1960 - 2030 Population Growth by County
2005 NCTCOGPopulation Estimate
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRegional Growth Trends
Note:1960-2000 from U.S. Census
2010-2030 from RIS 2030 Demographic Forecast.
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRail Scenario
NCTCOG 2030 Board Approved Rail Scenario
Rail Scenario % of Board
Approved
County* Population
Collin 1,187,606 1,000,240 84%
Dallas 2,829,580 3,338,972 118%
Denton 1,102,151 845,440 77%
Ellis 381,531 347,807 91%
Johnson 377,435 327,778 87%
Tarrant 2,310,439 2,426,697 105%*Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRail Scenario: Population % Change
NCTCOG 2030 Board
ApprovedRail Scenario Rail Scenario % of
Board Approved
County* Employment
Collin 527,853 477,244 90%
Dallas 2,540,076 2,672,802 105%
Denton 423,293 380,540 90%
Ellis 148,767 130,307 88%
Johnson 125,918 110,646 88%
Tarrant 1,393,459 1,406,763 101%*Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRail Scenario: Employment % Change
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis
Rail ScenarioImpacted Zones
North Central TexasCouncil of GovernmentsTransportation Department ¨
Legend
Degree of Change
2025 Freeways
No ChangeIncreaseDecrease
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis2030 ForecastPopulation DensityLegend
2025 Freeways
Persons per Acre0< 55 - 1010 - 1515 - 2020 <
North Central TexasCouncil of GovernmentsTransportation Department ¨
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRail ScenarioPopulation DensityLegend
2025 Freeways
Persons per Acre0< 55 - 1010 - 1515 - 2020 <
North Central TexasCouncil of GovernmentsTransportation Department ¨
Regional Rail Scenario Statistics
Alternative Future Sensitivity Tests
Data of Interest NCTCOG 2030 Forecast Rail Scenario Percent
Change
Population Close to Rail 428,514
844,878
12.0
247,000
360,000
MPA Vehicle Miles Traveled 236,000,000 221,000,000 - 6%
MPA Vehicle Hours Traveled 6,500,000 5,900,000 - 9%
1,777,532
Employment Close to Rail 1,129,861 + 34%
MPA Average Trip Length 11.0 - 8%
MPA Rail Transit Boardings 375,000 + 52%
MPA Non-Rail Transit Boardings 463,000 + 29%
+ 315%
MPA - Metropolitan Planning Area
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis
Legend
Percent Changein Congestion
County Boundaries
Percent Change
> -67%
-33% - -67%
-10% - -33%
-10% - 10%
10% - 33%
33% - 67%
67% <
North Central TexasCouncil of GovernmentsTransportation Department °
(Base versus Rail Scenario)
Regional Roads
This map represents the percentage of change in level of service between the NCTCOG 2030 demographic forecast and the Rail alternative future demographic scenario
Data of Interest Rail Scenario
Total Vehicle Hours of Delay - 24.0%
Lane Mile Needs - 55.5%
Financial Needs (billions) - $12.1
Roadway Pavement Needs - 2.8 sq. mi.
NOx Emissions (Nitrogen Oxides) - 4.1%
VOC Emissions (Volatile Organic Compounds) - 5.3%
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisRail Scenario: Transportation System Benefits
25% of all new households will be looking for housing in transitzones** over the next 25 years.
71% of older households want to live within walking distance of transit.***
Real estate investment is favoring mixed use communities.
Market for TOD includes empty-nesters, singles, couples without children and the transit dependent.
* Reconnecting America’s Center for Transit-Oriented Development, Hidden In Plain Sight; Capturing The Demand For Housing Near Transit, September 2004.
** Transit Zone Households include households within a half-mile radius around both existing and planned future stations.
***AARP Survey
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisNational Market Assessment*
Properties near DART light rail stations recorded valuation increases about 25% greater than neighborhoods in a control group not served by DART between 1994 and 1998.
Between 1997 and 2001, median values of residential properties increased 32.1% near DART stations compared to 19.5% in non-DART areas.
Median values of office buildings near DART stations increased 24.7% versus 11.5% for non-DART properties.
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisLocal Market Results*
* University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research, DART Light Rail’s Effect on Taxable Property Valuations and Transit-Oriented Development, January 2003.
!
!!!!!
!!!!
!!!!!
!!!!
!!
!!
!!!!
!!!! !
!!!
!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!
!
!!
!!!!
!
!!
!! !
! !!
!
!
!
!!!
!!
! ! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
! !!!!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!!
!! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
! !!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!!
!!!!!!!!
!!!!! !
!!!
!
!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!
!!
!
!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!
!!
!!!
! !!!
!!!!
!
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!
!!
!!
! ! ! !!!!!
!!!!!
!
!!!!! ! !
! ! ! !
! !!!
!!!!!!!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!
!!!!!
!!!!
!!!!!
!!!!
!!
!!
!!!!
!!!! !
!!!
!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!
!
!!
!!!!
!
!!
!! !
! !!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!!
!
! ! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
! !!!!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!!
!! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
! !!!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!!
!!
!!!!!!!!
!!!!! !
!!!
!
!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!
!!
!
!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!!!
!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!
!!!
!!
!!!
!!
!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!
!!
!!!
! !!!
!!!!
!
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!
!!
!!
! ! ! !!!!!
!!!!!
!
!!!!! ! !
! ! ! !
! !!!
!!!!!!!!
!
!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!!
!!
!
!!
!
!
!!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!!!!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2030 Rail System within theMetropolitan Planning Area
.
Legend
! Modeled Rail Stations(174 Stations)
Mobility 2025Rail System
Major Roadways
North Central TexasCouncil of Governments
Transportation Department
Counties
MPA Boundary
Approved 2030 Forecast
Households: 3,172,390
Employment: 5,256,667
Population: 8,503,146
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control TotalsInput 1: Future Rail System
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control TotalsInput 2: 2010 Regional Demographics*
* Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.** Transit area is defined as the ¼ mile radius around a rail station.
Households Population Employment
2010 Demographics 2,247,076 6,034,899 3,826,380
2010 Demographics in Transit Area** 137,446 341,717 672,831
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control TotalsInput 3: County Demographics
*Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.
2010 Demographics in Transit AreaCounty* Households Population Employment
Collin 12,202 29,638 40,277
Dallas 83,051 202,325 465,689
Denton 9,157 22,168 17,094
Ellis 4,475 12,151 7,841
Johnson 1,638 4,833 4,022
Tarrant 26,923 70,602 137,908
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control TotalsAssumption #1: Each county grows
as predicted in approved 2030 Forecast
*Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.
2010-2030 GrowthCounty* Households Population Employment
Collin 155,877 421,597 224,794
Dallas 128,942 329,095 459,420
Denton 167,358 438,404 186,083
Ellis 74,116 206,693 85,040
Johnson 82,296 222,309 74,749
Tarrant 204,886 535,745 302,900
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control TotalsAssumption #2: Following national trends, 25% of
new growth in each county locates in transit areas**
25% of 2010-2030 GrowthCounty* Households Population Employment
Collin 38,969 105,399 56,199
Dallas 32,236 82,274 114,855
Denton 41,840 109,601 46,521
Ellis 18,529 51,673 21,260
Johnson 20,574 55,577 18,687
Tarrant 51,222 133,936 75,725* Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.
** Transit area is defined as the ¼ mile radius around a rail station.
Sample Scenario: Rail with County Control Totals2030 Transit Oriented Development Demand **
Results
* Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.** 2010 demographics + 25% of new growth in each county.
2030 Transit Area DemandCounty* Households Population Employment
Collin 51,171 135,037 96,476
Dallas 115,287 284,599 580,544
Denton 50,997 131,769 63,615
Ellis 23,004 63,824 29,101
Johnson 22,212 60,410 22,709
Tarrant 78,145 204,538 213,633Total 340,815 880,178 1,006,078
Alternative Scenario Comparison
* Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.
Market Demand Assumption AdjustmentsHouseholds
512,891
475,212
164,565
Population Employment
Rail Scenario 1,360,272 312,648
Infill Scenario 1,317,715 499,009
Rail with County* Control Totals 451,664 161,200
Alternative Scenario Comparison
Transit Area DemographicsHouseholds
176,250
682,741
340,815
Population Employment
NCTCOG 2030 Forecast/Base 428,514 844,878
Rail Scenario 1,777,532 1,129,861
Rail with County* Control Totals 880,178 1,006,078
* Denton, Collin, Tarrant, Dallas, portions of Johnson and Ellis counties.
Data Set Post Process Base 2030 Data
Rebuild Demographic Forecast With New
NetworksBase Forecast(Board Approved April, 2003) N/A N/A
Project Specific (Dallas, Fort Worth, Corridors) TBD
Infill X
RTC Alternative Scenario X1
2040 Demographics X 2
Rail X
Rail with County Control Totals X
Infill with County Control Totals X
Demographic Data Set Inventory
1. May include alternative rail network, not a multi-year rebuild2. Will include new 2005 parcel demographics
Base Demographic Forecast
Draft Alternative Future Demographic ScenariosRail ScenarioInfill ScenarioRail with County Control TotalsInfill with County Control TotalsRTC Alternative Scenario
Draft Policy Guidance to Alter Market ForcesEnhance freight rail accessPromote high density development centersIncrease development at rail stationsEncourage infill employmentEncourage central city and southern sector growthAddress mobility needs around rail stationsLimit residential densities away from rail service areas and existing employment centersPreserve large lots/small farms in outlying areas
Demographic Sensitivity AnalysisPolicy Development Process
Mike Sims, [email protected]
(817) 695-9226
or
Alicia [email protected]
(817) 608-2380
www.dfwinfo.com/trans/program-areas/landuse.html.com
For additional information:
Demographic Sensitivity Analysis