demographic impacts on minnesota’s work force: the future in 15 minutes or less
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Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force: the future in 15 minutes or less. Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager. Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force:
the future in 15 minutes or less
Kyle Uphoff
Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager
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Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased
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The recent recession will restructure an already shifting economic structure: Industries losing jobs in MN since March 2007
• Total Employment: -140,000 in 2 years• Construction: -28,600 (-37,000 in 3 years)• Manufacturing: -42,500 (-53,300 in 3 years)• Wholesale: -6,500• Retail: -19,000• Transportation: -10,000• Information: -3,700• Professional & Technical Services: -20,600• Employment Services: -9,000• Leisure & Hospitality: -12,800
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A few Industries are still adding jobs but there are no safe bets anymore
• Healthcare: +8,200• Social Assistance: +5,100• Insurance: +1,200• Utilities: +700• Education: +3,600• Food Manufacturing: +1,000• Wholesale Nondurable goods: +1,200• Government: +200
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Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit
Analysis and Evaluation Office
A full labor market recovery is years away…assuming we are in recovery now
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2008 2009 2010 2011
Empl
oym
ent i
n Th
ousa
nds
Actual Projected
~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs
Late 2012
Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast,
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The Post-Recessionary Landscape
• Lower labor force mobility• Postponed retirements• Less consumption- “the new frugality”• Increasing skills requirements• Continued shift to services• Government Policy risk and opportunity• Globalization risk and opportunity
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The Shift to Services: Employment Change since 1991 MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare
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Education Requirements are Increasing
Twin Cities data presented.
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
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Education will be even more important in the future
• 65% of new job growth will require education beyond high school.
• Education beyond high school will be required for 17 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations.
• Good communication skills, customer service and computer knowledge will be required for future jobs.
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Minnesota is projected to add 270,000 jobs between 2006 and 2016
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
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Minnesota is projected to have over 600,000 replacement job openings by 2016
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
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Technology is the biggest unknown
Time
Employment
IT Services?
Green Tech?Nanotech?
Computer Mfg?
CommoditizationMaturation or“the Golden Age”
Correction
Expansion/Speculation?
Inception
Microchips?
CreativeFinancing?
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Skill and knowledge areas for “in demand” jobs
Skills and knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:
Reading comprehension Active listening Speaking Writing Active learning Critical thinking Customer service Mathematics Clerical Education/training
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Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,700,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Avg. 2
009
Em
plo
ym
en
t &
La
bo
rfo
rce
Employment Workforce
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Minnesota is Aging
When will they retire?
Will there be enough?
How productive canthey be?
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An expanding economy will have to do with a slowing labor force
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Labor shortages are already here in some places
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Where will workers come from?
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We need to fix racial disparities in educational attainment
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The Aging of Society will Shift Spending Priorities
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Some new entrants will be ready for the new labor market…some will not.
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Where can I get this information?
• Kyle Uphoff (Manager): (651) 259-7185• Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) 231-5174• Northeast: Drew Digby (218) 723-4774• Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) 333-8220• Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) 642-0728• Southeast: Jennifer Ridgeway (507) 285-7327
www.positivelyminnesota.com