demographic changes that are aging transforming minnesota · 2016. 6. 6. · aging is...

+

For Senior Community Services

Andi Egbert, Sr. Researcher

Minnesota State Demographic Center

SEPTEMBER 11, 2014

Demographic

changes that are

transforming

Minnesota

Aging

Diversity

Workforce

Health

+ What is the role of the

MN State Demographic Center?

Serve as a liaison to the Census Bureau and assist with the decennial census counts

Create MN population estimates and projections

Analyze, interpret and distribute data from the state, U.S. Census Bureau and other sources

Offer data and technical assistance to legislators, all levels of government, organizations and citizens across the state

Monitor trends and help MN to make data-informed decisions

+ We love graphs and maps

Source: http://www.buzzfeed.com/katieheaney/youve-been-playing-duck-duck-goose-wrong-your-whole-life

+

Major demographic trends

for Minnesota

3 Population Shifts

Diversity & Immigration

Aging & Implications

Population Shifts

+ QUIZ QUESTION

During the 2000s decade, how many of Minnesota’s 87 counties gained population?

A. 20 B. 30 C. 40 D. 50

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census.

+ Population shifts

during last decade (2000s)

Greatest growth in

was in counties that

ring the TC metro,

as well as growth in

a diagonal pattern

across the state

Scott=45% growth!

Sherburne (37%) and

Wright (39%)


+ QUIZ QUESTION

Since 2010, how many of Minnesota’s 87 counties gained population?

A. 37 B. 47 C. 57 D. 67


+ Population changes since the 2010

Census (2010-2013)

37 counties have gained residents (net) since 2010 while 50 have lost population (losses have been very modest).

McLeod County in central Minnesota experienced the largest loss (-733)

Since 2010, Hennepin has added more than 46,000 residents (most), while Ramsey has added just above 18,000 (second most)

Minneapolis topped 400,000 residents for the first time

Dakota, Anoka, Washington and Scott have added 7,000-10,000 residents apiece, while Olmsted has added just under 5,000 and Carver gained about 4,500

In the next tier of growth, with gains of 1,000-4,000 are Wright, Clay, Sherburne, Blue Earth, Stearns and Beltrami Counties

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 decennial census and 2013 population estimates

Source: “CURA Reporter,” Winter/Spring 2014

based on U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census

Population loss

along western

edge of state,

down into

Southwestern

prairies has

been long-

standing

+ Growth anticipated by 2025

at the county level

Source: As featured in CURA Reporter

Diversity & Immigration

+

Source: mncompass.org

50 years of growing diversity in our

region, state, nation

36%

17%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Percent Of Color, 1960-2010

U.S. MN Twin Cities


Black, Latino and Asian

populations growing rapidly

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Populations of color, MN

American Indian

Asian

Black

Hispanic

Two or more races

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Populations of color growing

quickly

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census and population estimates.

Populations of Color > 20% in 2000

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

Populations of Color > 20% in 2008-2012

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

+

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

White (non-

Hispanic)

Of Color

Minnesota’s population by

age groups, 2012

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates

+

69,100

25,700

23,900

19,900

15,700

15,300

13,600

13,200

12,600

11,900

10,800

7,400

6,400

6,300

6,100

6,000

Mexico

Laos

India

Somalia

Vietnam

Thailand

Korea

China

Liberia

Ethiopia

Canada

El Salvador

Kenya

Philippines

Germany

Ecuador

MN foreign-born population: Largest

groups by country of birth, 2009-2011

Source: mncompass.org

*

* Hmong represented

*

+ MN: Largest growth among Asian,

Black and Hispanic groups by 2030

60,300

223,300

264,900 258,200

84,300 63,800

358,900

419,500

491,700

128,000

American

Indian

Asian Black Hispanic Two or More

Races

2010

2030

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

+ Net migration will become the

major driver of our state’s growth

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.

Net migration

Natural change

(births-deaths)

+ The nation in 1900

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95



Younger Boomers

Generation X

Millennials

Silent Generation

Older Baby Boomers

G.I. / Greatest Generation

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95


Digitals

+ Minnesota total population in 5-

year bars, 2010 decennial census

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Under 5 5 to 9

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84

85+

Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2010

Female

Male

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census

+ How many additional “older adults”

will we gain during this decade?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

85 55

71 67 47

91

- - - - -

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)

+ This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population

85 55

71 67 47

91

285

335

97 66 56

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

+ For the first time in MN history:

More 65+ than school-age by 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

65+

5-17

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ Older adults in Minnesota by age

cohort, 2010-2050

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

85+

75-84

65-74


The number of older

adults in MN will

double between

2010 and 2030.

+ By 2030, more than 1 in 5 Minnesotans

will be 65+, including all Baby Boomers

13%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% age 85+

% age 75-84

% age 65-74


+ The coming decades will see

dramatic growth in older cohorts

59

%

26

%

17

%

94

%

10

2%

55

%

62

%

14

9%

15

6%

79

%

11

1%

23

9%

87

% 1

36

%

21

2%

Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

Expected percentage change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

+ The coming decades will see

dramatic growth in older cohorts

209,000

58,000

334,000

227,000

59,000

219,000

330,000

167,000

280,000 245,000 257,000

309,000 302,000

228,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

Expected numeric change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

19,000

Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

+ What the Twin Cities 7-county

metro will look like… next year

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+

Population by age and sex 7-county Twin Cities metro, 2015

Female

Male

+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+


Female

Male

What the Twin Cities 7-county

metro will look like… in 11 years


+

150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Under 5 5 to 9


85+


Female

Male




+ Total 25- to 64-year-olds in MN will

dip by about 100,000 individuals

2

0

1

7

2

0

4

0

+ County and

regional

level

differences

in aging

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census,

via MNCompass.org.

+ By 2030, only a handful of counties

will not have 1 in 5 older adults

2010 2020 2030 More than 1 in 5 people age 65 or older:

In 22 counties (2010)

In 48 counties (2020)

In 69 counties(2030)


Explore how your community

compares in our Map & Viz Gallery

http://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsphttp://mn.gov/admin/demography/map-viz-gallery/map-percent-65-or-older.jsp

+ By about 2020, half of MN’s older

adults will live in the 7-county metro

45% 50% 53% 55%

55% 50% 47% 45%

2010 2020 2030 2040

Share of MN's 65+ population, actual and projected,

2010-2040

Balance of state

7-county TC metro

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, MN State Demographic Center projections.

+ Higher percentages of older adults

– patterning is very local

Source: Social Explorer

+ Aging is (unfortunately)

gender lopsided

Among Minnesotans in their:

early 60s, there are 97 men for every 100 women

late 60s, there are 93 men for every 100 women





90s plus, there are 35 men for every 100 women

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 decennial census.

+ Aging: not what it used to be…

Minnesota’s older adults are healthier,

living longer, and working longer than prior

generations

Life expectancy for Minnesotans age 65 now is 20.1

more years (15.6 years in good health)

Variations across racial,

educational, other groups

Minnesota’s Boomers and

older adults volunteer in

record numbers

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013.

+ Older adults projected to remain in

the labor force longer than before

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-69

70-74

75+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projected labor force participation

rates of older adults

Minnesota, 1980-2040


+ Older adults in Minnesota volunteer

in large numbers

Source: MN Compass

+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65 –

Minnesota leads most states

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013

+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013 Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013

+ Healthy life expectancy at age 65

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013

+ Challenges related to our aging

population

Will we have or create sufficient infrastructure for more transportation, caregiving, health care, and social support needs, as health challenges and disabilities increase, especially when children live far away?

Will we be able to finance needed services, especially long-term care? Private and public medical expenses will increase considerably.

Will we have the workers to form a strong, skilled, highly productive labor force as the Boomers retire — for economic growth, tax revenues for needed services, and maintaining a high quality of life in MN?

+ Aging brings rising rates of disability

among those living in the community

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, via MNCompass.org. Note: Relates only to the civilian, non-institutionalized population with a serious difficulty in one or more of four basic areas of functioning: vision, hearing, ambulation, and cognition.

60%

40%

20%

+ Types of disabilities among older

adults living in the community

18%

15%

12%

7%

5%

32%

7%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, via MNCompass.org. Note: Relates only to the civilian, non-institutionalized population with a serious difficulty in one or more of four basic areas of functioning: vision, hearing, ambulation, and cognition.

+ Dementias strongly associated

with advanced age

The number of Minnesotans with Alzheimer’s

disease or other dementias is expected to grow

dramatically:

Most persons with Alzheimer’s are over 65, and the

percent of people with Alzheimer’s doubles every five

years after the age of 65

For persons over age 85, one out of every two persons

has Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia

Minnesotans with dementias expected to double by 2040

Sources: “Preparing Minnesota for Alzheimer’s: The Budgetary, Social and Personal Impacts.” Report to the MN Legislature by the MN Board on Aging, Jan. 2011. http://www.alz.org/national/documents/mn_state_plan.pdf

+ Plans to pay for long-term care

MN Baby Boomers, 2010

Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services

+ Medical expenses rise

considerably after age 65

$1,769 $1,814 $3,230

$6,429

$10,274 89% 85%

76%

89% 96%

U.S., 2010

Average annual expense Percent with a medical expense

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2010

+ Increasingly our demographics

will change demand for services

General Fund Expenditures

FY 2012-2013

K-12

Education

42%

Health &

Human

Services

31%

Higher

Education

8%

All other

areas

19%

Within Health &

Human Services

Medical Assistance

Expenditures: 25% of GF

spending (8.5 billion)

Medical Assistance

Expenditures for the Elderly

and Disabled: 16% of GF

spending (5.5 billion)

MA expenditures include

basic care, long-term care

waivers and long-term

institutional care

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013.

House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

+

The future

will look

very

different

from today.

+ Take-away thoughts on aging

The aging trend will impact everyone, young and old. How

we manage the transition will be important for everyone’s

well-being. Creativity will be necessary!

All areas of the state will feel effects of an aging

population, some places much more acutely

The aging of our state may create fierce debates about

where to spend scarce public dollars

Many healthy years ahead for older adults. How will older

adults actively shape their communities in years to come?

Fewer 45- to 54-year-olds in the coming decades may

change the profile of caregivers, volunteers

+ Additional thoughts to consider

Fewer workers relative to older adults puts a

premium on developing, retaining, and

attracting skilled workers — to fuel

continued economic growth and to pay for

needed public services

Poor educational, health and economic

outcomes for our fast-growing populations

of color jeopardize our economic

competitiveness and quality of life for all

+

Stay in touch with the

MN State

Demographic Center

+

We just launched our new website at

mn.gov/demography

Locate more data, more efficiently

New interactive maps

and data visualizations

Featuring a new blog, guidance

for data users, and more

Follow us on Twitter at

@MN_StateData

MN State Demographic Center

online resources

+

Andi Egbert [email protected]

651-201-2474

Questions?

Comments?

Thank you!

demographic changes that are aging transforming minnesota · 2016. 6. 6. · aging is...

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