demographic change - rieti · demographic change how the us is coping with aging, immigration, and...
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![Page 1: Demographic Change - RIETI · Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other Challenges William H. Frey Brookings Institution University of Michigan](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042221/5ec7a4dd3459f8638a5ff51c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Demographic ChangeDemographic Change
How the US is Coping with Aging, How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other ChallengesImmigration, and Other Challenges
William H. FreyWilliam H. FreyBrookings InstitutionBrookings Institution
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan
www.freywww.frey--demographer.orgdemographer.org
![Page 2: Demographic Change - RIETI · Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other Challenges William H. Frey Brookings Institution University of Michigan](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042221/5ec7a4dd3459f8638a5ff51c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
US: Total and Age 65+ Growth, 1970- 2030
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Total Age 65+
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US Immigrant Population, 1970 - 2005
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
mill
ions
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Growing New Minorities, 2000- 30
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
Hispanics Asians
2000 2010 2020 2030
Shar
e of
Pop
ulat
ion
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Total Fertility Rate
United StatesUnited States 2.052.05FranceFrance 1.891.89United KingdomUnited Kingdom 1.821.82ItalyItaly 1.381.38GermanyGermany 1.361.36JapanJapan 1.271.27
Source: United Nations
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Life Expectancy
JapanJapan 82.682.6FranceFrance 80.780.7ItalyItaly 80.580.5GermanyGermany 79.479.4United KingdomUnited Kingdom 79.479.4United StatesUnited States 78.278.2
Source: United Nations
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Immigration Rate (per 1000)
United StatesUnited States 3.93.9ItalyItaly 2.62.6United KingdomUnited Kingdom 2.12.1GermanyGermany 1.81.8FranceFrance 1.61.6JapanJapan 0.40.4
Source: United Nations
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Projected Growth, 2006-2050
United StatesUnited States 40%40%United KingdomUnited Kingdom 14%14%FranceFrance 5%5%ItalyItaly --5%5%GermanyGermany --9%9%JapanJapan --21%21%
Source: United Nations
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Percent Aged 65+
JapanJapan 20%20%GermanyGermany 19%19%ItalyItaly 19%19%FranceFrance 16%16%United KingdomUnited Kingdom 16%16%United StatesUnited States 12%12%
Source: United Nations
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Population Growth
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.019
50-1
955
1955
-196
0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
2010
-201
5
2015
-202
0
2020
-202
5
2025
-203
0
2030
-203
5
2035
-204
0
2040
-204
5
2045
-205
0
US Japan
Source: United Nations
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Labor Force Growth
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.019
50-1
955
1955
-196
0
1960
-196
5
1965
-197
0
1970
-197
5
1975
-198
0
1980
-198
5
1985
-199
0
1990
-199
5
1995
-200
0
2000
-200
5
2005
-201
0
2010
-201
5
2015
-202
0
2020
-202
5
2025
-203
0
2030
-203
5
2035
-204
0
2040
-204
5
2045
-205
0
US Japan
Source: United Nations
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Age Dependency
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.019
50-
1960
-
1970
-
1980
-
1990
-
2000
-
2010
-
2020
-
2030
-
2040
-
2050
-
US Japan
Persons age 65+ per 100 persons age 16-64
Source: United Nations
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US Growth by Age 2000US Growth by Age 2000--1010
Source: William H. Frey
310
4
-9
19
49
16 14
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0- 5 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
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Frey
Population Changes in the Population Changes in the Next 3 DecadesNext 3 Decades
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Young Elderly Old Elderly
2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030
(65 - 74) (75 +)
Source: William H. Frey
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Frey
Population Changes in the Population Changes in the Next 3 DecadesNext 3 Decades
-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
Empty Nesters Pre-Elderly
2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030
(45 - 54) (55 - 64)
Source: William H. Frey
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Boomers vs. Parents at MidlifeBoomers vs. Parents at Midlife
14%
23%
36%
30%
38%
50%
21%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
% HS Dropout
%Women Not Working
% Not Married
% With 3+ Kids
Boomers Parents
Source: William H. Frey
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Household Types: Older Age Groups
Source: William H. Frey analysis
52.137.2
20.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+Female Head NonFamilies Male Head NonFamiliesFemale Head Families Male Head FamiliesMarried Couples
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Growth by Age, 2000Growth by Age, 2000--1010
Source: William Frey,
-10
010
2030
40
5060
70
California Nevada Michigan
Under 2525-4445-6465+
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20002000--10 Growth: Under Age 3510 Growth: Under Age 35
Source: William H. Frey
GT 7%
1% - 7%
LT 1%
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Percent 65+ population for States, 2005
Source: William H. Frey analysis
13.4% & above12% -13%11% -11.9%under 12%
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Rates of Migration by Age
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
<5 5-910
-1415
-1920
-2425
-2930
-3435
-3940
-4445
-4950
-5455
-5960
-6465
-6970
-7475
-7980
-84 85+
Per 1
00
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Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration
Source: William H. Frey analysis
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
Aging in Place Net Migration
perc
ent g
row
th
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New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration
Source: William H. Frey analysis
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
Aging in Place Net Migration
perc
ent g
row
th
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US Federal Budget Allocation as Percent of Projected Federal Revenue
Source: Dowell Myers, Boomers and Seniors
56 6191
121
5667
55
60
020406080
100120140160180200
2006 2010 2020 2030
Health Care and Social Security All Other Expenditures
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Immigrants in the US, 1900 Immigrants in the US, 1900 --20052005
14.2
9.6
35.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
in millions
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
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Immigrant Share of US Immigrant Share of US PopulationPopulation
4.7
12.1
14.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Source: US Census sources
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Types of US Foreign Born, 2005
Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Legal Temporary
3%
Undocumented30%
Legal Permanent
67%
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Legal Permanent Immigrants, 2003-05
Source: Population Reference Bureau
Other17%
FamilyTies64%
Employment19%
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Immigrant Origins
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Pew Hispanic Center
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Legal Undocumented
Other Asia Latin America
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Education: Immigrants vs Natives
Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
>8 Grade 9-12Grade
HSDiploma
SomeCollege
CollegeDiploma
PostCollege
foreign born native born
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Immigrant Education: Mexican vs. Other Origins
Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis
05
1015202530354045
>8 Grade 9-12Grade
HSDiploma
SomeCollege
CollegeDiploma
PostCollege
Mexican Rest of World
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Hispanics: Less than High School
Source: William H. Frey analysis
32%
54%
15%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US
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Hispanics: College Graduates
Source: William H. Frey analysis
18%
10%
28%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US
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Asians: College Graduates
Source: William H. Frey analysis
53%51%
28%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US
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Most Prevalent Jobs
Native Born Foreign Born
Admin Support ProductionManagement ConstructionSales Admin SupportEducation Sales
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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Immigrants - Prevalent Jobs
Mexican Rest of World
Construction SalesProduction Admin SupportMaintenance ManagementTransportation Production
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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Undocumented Prevalent Jobs
Cooks
Construction
Maids/Housekeeping
Maintenance
Agriculture
Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
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Long Term Fiscal Impact of One Migrant
Source: Population Reference Bureau
-$89
$105
-$30
$82$76$93
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
Not High School High School Some College
Immigrant Descendent
US dollars
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Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Immigrant Magnet States
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State Immigrant Growth, 1990State Immigrant Growth, 1990--20052005
200% or more growthBtn 100% and 199% growthTraditional immigrant gatewayAll other states
Source: William H. Frey
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Immigrants Immigrants vsvs Natives: 2005Natives: 2005
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Hispanics: BlueCollar Workers
Blue CollarWorkers*
Hispanics: Povertyand Near Poverty
Poverty and NearPoverty**
Immigrants in New Destinations.Immigrants in Traditional MagnetsUS Native Born
Source: William H. Frey
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GT 40%Other
Where Undocumented Dominate Where Undocumented Dominate Foreign BornForeign Born
Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
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Desired US Immigration LevelsDesired US Immigration Levels
5.2 6.2
47.156.8
14.17.8
33.6 29.3
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Traditional MagnetStates
New DestinationStates
PresentIncreasedDecreasedDon't Know
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
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3 Year Work Permits for Illegal 3 Year Work Permits for Illegal Immigrants?Immigrants?
6.4 3.4
54.5 71.9
39.124.7
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
TraditionalMagnet States
New DestinationStates
Allowed
Not Allowed
Don't Know
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005
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US RaceUS Race--EthnicityEthnicity
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
0.6
1.514.4
4.4
12.1
67.1
White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic
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Natives and Recent ImmigrantsNatives and Recent Immigrants
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Native Born
76.3
1.07.3
White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic
Recent Foreign Born
15.9
20.4
55.8
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US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2050
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
69.1%
50.1%
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
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New Demographic RegionsNew Demographic Regions
Melting Pot AmericaMelting Pot America
The New SunbeltThe New Sunbelt
The HeartlandThe Heartland
Source: William H. Frey
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New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States
New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States
Source: William H. Frey
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Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--20052005(Rates per 1000)(Rates per 1000)
Source: William Frey
19.5
10.1
-8.1
28.3
-6.6
32.7
-15-10
-505
101520253035
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
ImmigrationDomesticMigration
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Race Composition of RegionsRace Composition of Regions
70%
15%
3%2%
10%
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
80%
12%2%
2% 4%
New Sunbelt HeartlandMelting Pot
Source: William H. Frey
54%
11%
7%
2%
26%
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25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0 to 9.9%
Under 5%
Hispanic Concentrations, 2005Hispanic Concentrations, 2005
Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Percent of County Population
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White Concentrations, 2005White Concentrations, 2005
Percent of County Population
95% and above
85.0% to 94.9%
70.0% to 84.9%
Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
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Children Speaking Spanish at Children Speaking Spanish at HomeHome
Under 5%5% to 10%10% to 20%20% and Over
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
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Race Profiles for Race Profiles for Occupations Los AngelesOccupations Los Angeles
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Professional& Mgrs
Clerical & Sales
Skilled Blue Collar
Unskilled & Services
Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian
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Race for Age Groups: US
Source: William H. Frey analysis
57.6 61.473.2 81.5
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
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Race for Age Groups: California
Source: William H. Frey analysis
31.8 36.753.5
65.2
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
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Hispanics: 2004 Total Hispanics: 2004 Total vsvs Voter Voter SharesShares
4537
3329
23 20 19
34
2216
12 10 9 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NewMexico
Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida
TotalVoters
Source: William H.Frey
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United StatesUnited StatesProjected Race Compositions, 2025Projected Race Compositions, 2025
Source: William H. Frey, Brookings InstitutionSource: William H. Frey, Brookings InstitutionSource: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
Under Under AgeAge 1818
52 %
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
62 %
Age 18 Age 18 --6464
76 %
Age 65+Age 65+