Democratization and Regime Change

Dr. Andrew Garner

POLS4520 - Spring 2015

Introduction

“Different roads sometimes lead to the same castle.” A Game of Thrones by George R.R. Martin

A subject walks into the street. He holds a sign that is handed to him A chant arises from a dozen people gathered outside their place of worship. A dozen voices grows to a hundred. A hundred grows to a thousand. A thousand swells to hundreds of thousands. They converge upon a city square, a nation’s capital, a symbol of the regime…the seat of power. Their demand is simple - the ruler must forsake his throne. The subjects in the streets assert themselves as citizens.

The police arrive to extinguish the uprising. The authorities attempt to restore order and compel the citizens to return home as subjects. Violence ensues, blood spills, and people die. The clash between the regime and the common people can last hours, days, months or even years.

And while the struggle rages outside, the ruler himself must decide to flee the outside mob or to reassert the power of his regime. He huddles inside his palace walls with advisors, whose advice is sometimes wise and sometimes foolish. Hardliners demand harsh repression and rigid obedience to the regime. Less dogmatic ones advise moderation and cooperation with the disgruntled commoners. The ruler makes a choice. The choice dictates the fate of the regime…and whether the common people live as subjects or citizens.

This is a scenario that has played out thousands of times throughout human history. Revolution often begins with hundreds of thousands of people, each one simultaneously making an individual decision to demand regime change. The success of their movement is not assured. The

decisions of rulers, their advisors, the military, and even international actors combine to influence the parameters of the struggle for power. Amidst the chaos and disorder of a rebellion, the outcome is never certain.

And yet the outbreak of revolution itself is often predictable. Contrary to popular and media accounts, the seeds of revolution are planted decades before the people take to the streets. The country, the people, and the movements differ. Yet most of these revolutions share a common spark that is rooted in long-standing economic, cultural, and societal changes that have taken generations to realize. This is the first act of

Introduction

regime change - modernization theory.

The point at which revolution or rebellion has erupted, however, marks a period of chaos and uncertainty. The regime and the rebels each make decisions in the heat of conflict that dictate the parameters of the struggle for power. The regime itself is often internally divided while the military must take sides in the conflict. The “elites” and their strategic maneuverings determine not only he outcome of the struggle, but also how violent and prolonged the struggle ensues. This is the second act of regime change - the strategic choices made by the “high lords” during the chaos of revolution.

Kingdoms are not ruled in isolation, however. The international community and world events can influence the course of events as well as how the rulers react to those events. Long-standing institutions and other characteristics of the regime also direct the path of regime change. Each kingdom, each nation, each rebellion is a unique set of events that slightly alters the “normal” path of rebellion in that regime. This is the third act of regime change - the unique history and idiosyncrasies of each rebellion.

Finally, a revolution won must still be held. New democracies often do not endure, sliding quickly back to authoritarian rule. Supporters of the old regime attempt to reassert their authority to rule, militaries usurp newly elected leaders because they fear losing their influence, and often the same hunger and poverty that spawned rebellion leads the common people back to the streets against the rulers they selected. This is the epilogue of regime change - survival and consolidation.

Why do kingdoms rise and fall? Why do some countries become democracies while others linger in authoritarianism? Why do some new democracies survive while others slide back to authoritarian rule? Throughout the semester we will explore the political science theories that help answer these questions. But foremost among understanding regime change and democratization is recognizing that it occurs simultaneously at many different levels. It is the people in the streets, the rulers in the palace, the rice or wheat or corn in the fields. It is the military and the palace advisers ,the other rulers around the world, and the unique era in which the revolution occurs…all at the same time. Regime change is a story about the centuries old struggle for survival, for freedom, and for power. It is a story of subjects and citizens, a struggle between the rulers and the ruled. It is a real-life game of thrones.

“History is a wheel, for the nature of man is fundamentally unchanging. What has happened before will perforce happen again.”

Archmaester Rigley, A Feast for Crows by George R.R. Martin

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The grading scale used for this class is the new plus/minus system implemented by the University of Wyoming. Here are the ranges associated with each letter grade:

The course is structured around three large projects (and one smaller essay) that are completed in lieu of traditional exams or writing assignments.

• Project I: Prologue: Defining the Regime - 10% • Project II: Describing and Explaining the Transition (Part 1) - 25% • Project III: Explaining the Transition (Part 2) - 25% • Project IV: Epilogue: Survival and Consolidation: 10%

The course readings and classroom activities are designed to help you successful complete these projects. There will be weekly, open-note quizzes on the course readings and in-class projects and activities designed to help you develop the skills and experience needed to complete the projects:

• Quizzes: 15% • Participation/Activities: 15%

Grades

Numeric Grade Letter Grade Numeric Grade Letter Grade

93 - 100% A 77 - 79.9% C+

90 - 92.9% A- 73 - 76.9% C

87 - 89.9% B+ 70 - 72.9% C-

83 - 86.9% B 67 - 69.9% D+

80 - 82.9% B- 60 - 66.9% D

0 - 59.9% F

One of the overarching goals of this course is to learn the basic facts and scholarly literature about American and Wyoming politics. Such learning can only occur in a setting of trust and academic integrity where everyone does his or her own work.

This cannot be stated emphatically enough—an academic setting of trust and integrity has zero tolerance for any form of academic dishonesty. Any act of academic dishonesty will result in an “F” grade for the course. In addition, academic dishonesty can also result in the loss of scholarships and suspension or expulsion from the university. You should consult the University Regulation 805 (www.uwyo.edu/legal/Uniregs/ur802.htm) and also the Political Science Department’s policy statement (www.uwyo.edu/Pols/Academic_dishonesty.doc) for more information about academic dishonesty.

By joining this class, you are making a commitment to one another to attend every class session, to complete the readings, and to contribute your efforts and insights during the class activities and discussions. This commitment means taking the readings and the material seriously. Failing to live up to this commitment makes it harder on your classmates during the discussions and activities during the Friday discussion sections and will make it more difficult for you to do well on the exams.

Having said that, life happens. Sometimes unexpected problems arise that may prevent you from making it to a one or two classes or that might require you to come a bit late. Please try to enter the room as quietly as possible.

Attendance is required and expected for all classes. If you miss class, you will need to get notes from one of your friends. If it is a university excused absence then bring documentation with you to the next

Commitment

Integrity

class so that you are not marked off for those points. Make-up quizzes are only allowed for university excused absences.

Class participation is a vital part of of this course, and I will be grading on quality as well as quantity of contributions during the discussions. I prefer not to call on people during these discussions, but I do reserve the right to do so if it becomes necessary.

In setting high expectations for you, I am also making a commitment to each of you that I will make classes worth attending. You will quickly find that I like to have fun during the class discussions and activities, for example. But I am also making a commitment to eliminate busy work and to avoid wasting your time with meaningless, superficial course material. I have tried to include only the most relevant and important theories, concepts, and material in the discussions and activities. All of the discussions and activities during class time are intended to help you successfully complete the four projects. In some instances, I may end class early or cancel a class if we have covered all of the relevant material ahead of time.

Readings

We will be reading several important scholarly works published in both journal articles as well as books. There are three books you will need to purchase or otherwise obtain:

The internet has fundamentally changed the ways in which people shop for books. Online stores such as Amazon.com and Half.com provide used copies of these books that are significantly less expensive than you would pay in a bookstore. In addition, there is an ebook version for at least one of these texts and likely by now there are ebook editions for several of them. You are encouraged to explore your options and shop around for the best deals. Also, purchasing a previous edition for the Herbert Asher and/or Erikson and Tedin books is fine as long as the edition is not more than a few years old.

Books

Do not be hesitant to ask for help if you are struggling with the material. Some of the readings are very abstract and dense. I expect everyone will have difficulty fully understanding the material at some point during the semester. So long as you put in an honest effort, there is nothing wrong with asking for help or getting some clarification on something that is not clear. I am here to help you learn and apply this material any way that I can. Feel free to drop by my office, email me, see me after class, or call whenever you feel that you do not fully understand something.

In addition, students who have a physical, learning, sensory, or psychological disability and require accommodations need simply contact me after class as soon as possible. All I need is confirmation from the University Disability Support Services (UDSS), and you may register with UDSS in the Student Educational Opportunity offices, Room 330 Knight Hall to provide them with documentation of your disability.

Cowboy Up?

Contact Information

Class Time: T/Th 11AM- 12:15PM Class Room: EN4066

Office: A&S 145 Phone: 307-760-2176

Email: agarner1@uwyo.edu

Office Hours: Tuesday: 9-10:30AM

Wednesday: 10-11:30AM Other times - by appointment

“The realm. Do you know what the realm is? It’s…a story we agree to tell each other over and over, until we forget that it’s a lie.”

Petyr Balish, A Game of Thrones by George R.R. Martin

Week 1: January 27-29 Introduction and Defining Democracy Readings: Teorell Introduction and Chapter 1

Week 2: February 3-5 Defining Democracy II Readings: Bernhagen; Schmitter

Week 3: February 10-12 Waves of Democracy Readings: Huntingon excerpt; Markoff

Project I - Prologue - Due Friday, February 20th

Prologue - Defining Regimes

“The common people pray for rain, health, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace.”

Barristan Selmy, A Game of Thrones by George R.R. Martin

Week 4: February 17-19 Modernization Theory I Readings: Przeworski/Limongi; Boix/Stokes; Wucherpfennig/Deutsch

Week 5: February 24-26 Modernization Theory II Readings: Inglehart and Welzel Introduction; Chapters 1-2; Chapter 6

Week 6: March 3-5 Modernization Theory III Readings: Inglehart and Welzel Chapters 7-8; Chapter 13

Week 7: March 10-12 Modernization Theory Wrap-up Readings: TBA

Project II - Modernization - Due Friday, March 27th

Week 8: March 17-19 Intermission: SPRING BREAK

Act I - Modernization: The Smallfolk

“I swear to you, sitting a throne is a thousand times harder than winning one.” Robert Baratheon, A Game of Thrones by George R.R. Martin

Week 9: March 24-26 Actors and Strategy I Readings: O’Donnell and Schmitter (entire book)

Week 10: March 31-April 2 Actors and Strategy II Readings: Acemoglu and Robinson excerpt; Boix excerpt

“Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.” Varys, A Feast for Crows by George R.R. Martin

Week 11: April 7-9 Inhibitors I: Religion Readings: Ross; Lusk; TBA

Week 12: April 14-16 Inhibitors II: Resources Readings: TBA

Project III - Actors and Obstacles - Due Friday, April 24th

Act II - Strategy: The High Lords

Act III - Obstacles: The Realm

“A lord must learn that sometimes words can accomplish what swords cannot.” Catelyn Stark, A Game of Thrones by George R.R. Martin

Week 13: April 21-23 Consolidation I Readings: Diamond; Przeworski et al.; TBA

Week 14: April 28-30 Consolidation II: Institutions Readings: Kapstein; Linz; Przeworski and Limongi (recap)

Week 15: May 5-7 Consolidation III: Parties and Other Institutions Readings: Huang; Reenock et al.; TBA

Project IV - Epilogue - Due Friday, May 15th

Epilogue - Consolidation and Survival