Democratization and Democratization and GlobalizationGlobalization

Three Waves of Three Waves of DemocratizationDemocratization

► 1) Late-191) Late-19thth: urbanization/education, esp. W. : urbanization/education, esp. W. EuropeEurope Later 1920s: 20/65; Collapse GDLater 1920s: 20/65; Collapse GD

► 2) Post-WWII decolonization2) Post-WWII decolonization Collapse 1960s+70sCollapse 1960s+70s

►Cold War (mostly US)Cold War (mostly US)

► 3) Collapse communism: S+E Europe, Latin 3) Collapse communism: S+E Europe, Latin America, AsiaAmerica, Asia 2000: 2/3 of 190 somewhat competitive elections2000: 2/3 of 190 somewhat competitive elections 44% “free”44% “free”

PreconditionsPreconditions

► 1) Economic Development (J-curve): 1) Economic Development (J-curve): Agriculture: rural, little need education, women Agriculture: rural, little need education, women

undervalued (female infanticide), primary undervalued (female infanticide), primary resource exploitation, inefficiency, little civil resource exploitation, inefficiency, little civil society, political/ethnic conflict over limited society, political/ethnic conflict over limited revenuesrevenues

Industrial: urban, educated, women valuable, Industrial: urban, educated, women valuable, infrastructure investment, manufacturing/service infrastructure investment, manufacturing/service sector (value added), growing civil society (labor sector (value added), growing civil society (labor unions, newspapers)unions, newspapers) sufficient resources to lift sufficient resources to lift poor w/o excess confiscation rich (even in hard poor w/o excess confiscation rich (even in hard times)times)

2) International Environment for 2) International Environment for DemocracyDemocracy

►Prestige of democracyPrestige of democracy►Major powers’ roleMajor powers’ role

Cold War: both sides opposed democracyCold War: both sides opposed democracy USSR Czechoslovakia (‘68) + Hungary USSR Czechoslovakia (‘68) + Hungary

(’56), Afghanistan (1980s)(’56), Afghanistan (1980s) US: Guatemala, Chile, Iran, Cuba, US: Guatemala, Chile, Iran, Cuba,

Vietnam…Vietnam…► ImpositionImposition

Germany, Japan, Iraq, AfghanistanGermany, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan EUEU

General Processes General Processes DemocratizationDemocratization► 1) Independence: if national hero “Washingtonian”1) Independence: if national hero “Washingtonian” opp’y opp’y

demo’ydemo’y Or, Nigeria 1960Or, Nigeria 196019661966

► 2) Breakdown authoritarian regime: collapse 2) Breakdown authoritarian regime: collapse ancien regimeancien regime Military dictatorship: economic failure/military defeatMilitary dictatorship: economic failure/military defeat pro- pro-

democracy faction (“return to the barracks”)democracy faction (“return to the barracks”) unwilling kill unwilling kill comradescomrades give up power (often write new constitution give up power (often write new constitution first) but often continuing role in civilian regime (Pakistan, first) but often continuing role in civilian regime (Pakistan, Nigeria)Nigeria)

Charismatic authoritarian: esp. death Great Leader (Stalin, Charismatic authoritarian: esp. death Great Leader (Stalin, Kim, Khomeini)/other failure of leadershipKim, Khomeini)/other failure of leadership negotiation negotiation reaction/reform forcesreaction/reform forces

Single-party authoritarian (USSR, China, PRI Mexico): esp. Single-party authoritarian (USSR, China, PRI Mexico): esp. hard to oust (acculturation, limited information, no alternate hard to oust (acculturation, limited information, no alternate institutions of power)institutions of power) “hard-liners” vs. “soft-liners” “hard-liners” vs. “soft-liners” (reformers)(reformers)►E.g. Gang of Four vs. Deng; Gorbachev vs. coupE.g. Gang of Four vs. Deng; Gorbachev vs. coup

► Democratization from above: negotiations transfer power elite Democratization from above: negotiations transfer power elite w/oppositions—Mexico, USSR (Gorbachev), China, Nigeria w/oppositions—Mexico, USSR (Gorbachev), China, Nigeria (military)(military)

► Democratization from below: mass demonstrations/pressureDemocratization from below: mass demonstrations/pressure reform—Eastern Europe (1980s+90s), US CRM, Britain Chartist reform—Eastern Europe (1980s+90s), US CRM, Britain Chartist Movement, Iran RevolutionMovement, Iran Revolution

Consolidation?Consolidation?

►Main determinant: economic Main determinant: economic development/modernization/acculturation development/modernization/acculturation (institutionalization of democracy)(institutionalization of democracy) resource battles minimized, politically resource battles minimized, politically manageable, stable even in hard timesmanageable, stable even in hard times But: India (100s millions extreme poverty)But: India (100s millions extreme poverty) Nigeria, Russia, et. al.: first crisisNigeria, Russia, et. al.: first crisis ancien regime ancien regime

elements best organized/positionedelements best organized/positioned reclaim reclaim powerpower maintain veneer of democracy maintain veneer of democracy (illiberal/procedural/partial dem’y; electoral (illiberal/procedural/partial dem’y; electoral authoritarianism)authoritarianism)

CorruptionCorruption► Patron-client relationshipsPatron-client relationships► USSR: nomenklatura (list and classUSSR: nomenklatura (list and class apparatchik); apparatchik);

Putin: Putin: silovikisiloviki (security services personnel) (security services personnel)► China: guanxi (“relationship”)China: guanxi (“relationship”)► Nigeria: prebendalismNigeria: prebendalism► ““prebendalism deals with the advancement of an prebendalism deals with the advancement of an

individual who looks to his/her respective people for individual who looks to his/her respective people for favors or support to get into office. However, unlike favors or support to get into office. However, unlike nomenklatura and guanxi, once in office, this individual nomenklatura and guanxi, once in office, this individual then then repays his supporters with sums of moneyrepays his supporters with sums of money, , not land or jobs.”not land or jobs.”

► the sense of entitlement that many people in Nigeria the sense of entitlement that many people in Nigeria feel they have to the revenues of the Nigerian state. feel they have to the revenues of the Nigerian state. Elected officials, government workers, and members of Elected officials, government workers, and members of the ethnic and religious groups to which they belong the ethnic and religious groups to which they belong feel they have a right to a share of government feel they have a right to a share of government revenues. revenues.

► ““Loyalty pyramids”Loyalty pyramids” undermines state formation (look undermines state formation (look to “big man” for services rather than state)to “big man” for services rather than state)

ImprovesImproves WorsensWorsens

Russia, Iran, Russia, Iran, Mexico, BritainMexico, Britain

LegitimacyLegitimacy Nigeria (corruption), Nigeria (corruption),

Failure Failure ideology/acculturation: ideology/acculturation: ChinaChina

Britain Britain (devolution (devolution undercuts undercuts nationalists: nationalists: Scots, Welsh, Scots, Welsh, IRA), Mexico IRA), Mexico (Zapatistas (Zapatistas largely largely internalized by internalized by PRD et. al.)PRD et. al.)

Social cleavages / Social cleavages / Human RightsHuman Rights

(tend to be less (tend to be less repressive toward repressive toward all than non-all than non-democratic, but…)democratic, but…)

Iraqi-model: Iraqi-model: elections=ethnic elections=ethnic census (Nigeria, census (Nigeria, Kenya)Kenya)

Democratizing Democratizing dangerous: populist dangerous: populist demagogues—Russia, demagogues—Russia, IranIran

China (crackdowns)China (crackdowns)

China (household China (household responsibility responsibility system; system; privatization), privatization), Mexico (end Mexico (end corporatism, corporatism, NAFTA), Britain NAFTA), Britain (M. Thatcher)(M. Thatcher)

Economic Economic performanceperformance

(democracies face (democracies face crises, generally crises, generally not catastrophes: not catastrophes: e.g. Great Leap e.g. Great Leap Forward)Forward)

Yeltsin’s Russia Yeltsin’s Russia (crash), Iraq, Nigeria (crash), Iraq, Nigeria (corruption), (corruption), Ahmadinejad’s Iran Ahmadinejad’s Iran (economic populism(economic populism inflation, resource inflation, resource curse, gas subsidies, curse, gas subsidies, unemployment)unemployment)

Economic Globalization:Economic Globalization:David Ricardo and Circular FlowDavid Ricardo and Circular Flow►Households, firms, government; rest of Households, firms, government; rest of

the worldthe world►Factor market (land, labor, capital, Factor market (land, labor, capital,

entrepreneurial ability; rent, wages, entrepreneurial ability; rent, wages, interest, profit)interest, profit)

►Product market (goods and services, Product market (goods and services, revenue)revenue)

►Trade as technology: Iowa car crop Trade as technology: Iowa car crop and creative destructionand creative destruction

Modernization vs. Modernization vs. DependenciaDependencia

►Dependency theory: avoid dependence 1Dependency theory: avoid dependence 1stst world capital, tech, expertiseworld capital, tech, expertise neo- neo-mercantalism: import-substitution mercantalism: import-substitution industrialization (Mexico) and export-led industrialization (Mexico) and export-led industrialization (China)industrialization (China) Confirmation: Asian ContagionConfirmation: Asian Contagion

► ““Sustainable development”: 1Sustainable development”: 1stst world world development questioned (cultural + social development questioned (cultural + social impacts; environmental impact; “free trade impacts; environmental impact; “free trade butters” hypocrisy)butters” hypocrisy)

► ““Decoupling” (not so much)Decoupling” (not so much)

Corporatism vs. PluralismCorporatism vs. Pluralism► Small # groups systematically recognized in Small # groups systematically recognized in

policymaking (tripartite decision making—labor, biz, policymaking (tripartite decision making—labor, biz, gov’t)gov’t)

► Authoritative peak associations for diff. sectors economyAuthoritative peak associations for diff. sectors economy► Interest group unified w/in selves + cooperative w/othersInterest group unified w/in selves + cooperative w/others► Centralized, monopolistic interest groupsCentralized, monopolistic interest groups► Liberal corporatism: consensual policy-makingLiberal corporatism: consensual policy-making► Hierarchy (follow leader’s decisions) w/in groupHierarchy (follow leader’s decisions) w/in group► Compulsory/near-universal membershipCompulsory/near-universal membership► Decisions made by few leaders of group + gov’t officials Decisions made by few leaders of group + gov’t officials

(little input)(little input)► Stable relationships w/gov’tStable relationships w/gov’t► Limits power civil society + limits legitimate Limits power civil society + limits legitimate

action/advocacy to state controlled institutionsaction/advocacy to state controlled institutions China, Mexico, RussiaChina, Mexico, Russia ““Neo-corporatism” in EuropeNeo-corporatism” in Europe

Costs of GlobalizationCosts of Globalization► Erosion state sovereigntyErosion state sovereignty► Outside pressure conform global normsOutside pressure conform global norms► Internal pressure for autonomy (decentralization), Internal pressure for autonomy (decentralization),

secession, disintegrationsecession, disintegration► Vulnerability actions others (NGOs, MNCs, WTO, IMF, Vulnerability actions others (NGOs, MNCs, WTO, IMF,

World Bank, UN, etc.) World Bank, UN, etc.) ► Cross-border/international problems (crime, disease, Cross-border/international problems (crime, disease,

environmental, etc.)environmental, etc.)► ““Race to the bottom”: Economic growth w/out Race to the bottom”: Economic growth w/out

development; internal inequalitydevelopment; internal inequality► Problems of rapid industrialization + urbanizationProblems of rapid industrialization + urbanization► Women hurt more by transition (competition + Women hurt more by transition (competition +

liberalizationliberalization reduction social welfare; undercuts reduction social welfare; undercuts subsistence ag., social constraints on new jobs, subsistence ag., social constraints on new jobs, exploitation in cities/factories)exploitation in cities/factories)

► ““Americanization” + cultural/political backlash Americanization” + cultural/political backlash (Nigeriazation of oil industry)(Nigeriazation of oil industry)

Benefits of GlobalizationBenefits of Globalization

► InterdependenceInterdependence cooperation w/in cooperation w/in global/regional institutions (integration)global/regional institutions (integration)

► Rapid economic growthRapid economic growth►Global products + services + informationGlobal products + services + information► Spread democracy + human rightsSpread democracy + human rights► Increased ability organize w/in + across Increased ability organize w/in + across

bordersborders► Empowerment non-state actorsEmpowerment non-state actors►New avenues political access, redress New avenues political access, redress

grievances, voicegrievances, voice►Global citizenshipGlobal citizenship

Globalization GraphsGlobalization Graphs

►Supply and Demand, consumer and Supply and Demand, consumer and producer surplusproducer surplus

►Comparative Advantage (lowest cost Comparative Advantage (lowest cost of production)of production)

►Exchange rates (derived demand) and Exchange rates (derived demand) and balanced tradebalanced trade

► Interest ratesInterest rates