Demand driven facts and figures

February 2018

Policy

3

Policies on domestic undergraduate student numbers in public universities 1989-1997 Block grant system with a target number of student places, with targets reduced from 1997 due to Budget savings measures. Each university receives its own allocation, determined largely according to history. Generally no discipline-level funding, other than a once-off adjustment in early 1990s. Additional places awarded on an average funding rate. The Commonwealth pays the total funding rate, and collects HECS separately from students. Enrolments above target are permitted but not funded. These are called ‘over-enrolments’.

1998-2004 As before, except: Over-enrolments funded at a marginal rate, approximate $3800 in $A2017. This compares with average funding of $15,800. Domestic full-fee places permitted if the target number of places is achieved, with a cap of 25 per cent in any course.

2005-2007 Block grants and enrolment targets are retained. However, the funding rate is split into Commonwealth and student contributions, based on discipline. Commonwealth Grant Scheme block grant is for the Commonwealth component only, with the places divided between 12 discipline-based funding clusters. Universities are not required to meet the 12 sub-targets, but may not maximise potential funding unless they do. Can receive funding up to 1 per cent more than the originally allocated dollar amount. Universities keep all student contributions up to 105 per cent of FT equivalent places. Above 5 per cent, they are ‘fined’ the average student contribution. New places often allocated to specific courses and campuses. Domestic full-fee places permitted if the target number of places is achieved, with a cap of 35 per cent in any course (from 2006).

2008 As for 2005-2007, except that universities received Commonwealth contributions up to 5 per cent more than the originally allocated dollar amount, and all student contributions. Bradley report recommending the demand driven system is released in late 2008.

2009 As for 2008, except that most new full-fee domestic undergraduate enrolments were banned. In early 2009, Julia Gillard announcesthat the government will introduce demand driven funding from 2012, except in medicine, with a phase-in period in 2010 and 2011.

2010-2011 As for 2009, except that universities received Commonwealth contributions up to 10 per cent more than the originally allocated dollar amount, and all student contributions. In late 2011, sub-bachelor places are ‘designated’; they will be centrally allocated.

2012-2017 Public universities receive uncapped Commonwealth and student contributions for all bachelor degree students, except in medicine which is designated and capped. Universities receive student contributions for all ‘over-enrolled’ sub-bachelor places.

2018-2019 Maximum demand driven Commonwealth contributions under Commonwealth Grant Scheme are frozen at 2017 levels. Universities to receive the lower of the 2017 total and actual full-time equivalent student numbers * relevant cluster funding rate. Universities receive the student contribution for all undergraduates enrolled.

2020 As for 2018-2019, except maximum Commonwealth Grant Scheme payments increased in line with population growth, if universities meet various performance targets

Enrolments and participation

5

Easing of funding caps triggered rapid growth in commencing numbers from 2009 to 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Department of Education and Training, uCube

Domestic commencing bachelor degree enrolments, public universities

6

Low growth in commencements from 2015 means that pipeline growth will also ease

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Domestic bachelor degree enrolments, public universities

Source: Department of Education and Training, uCube

7

Health-related courses had the highest total growth under demand driven funding

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Criminology

Creative arts

IT

Engineering

Education

Arts

Psychology & related fields

Allied health

Business & economics

Nursing

Science

Source: Department of Education and Training, Higher education data collection

Fields increasing domestic commencing bachelor enrolments by 2,000 or more,

2008-2016

8

A mix of universities grew significantly under demand-driven funding

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

University of Southern QueenslandUniversity of Canberra

The University of AdelaideUniversity of Wollongong

University of New South WalesCQUniversity

University of the Sunshine CoastThe University of Queensland

La Trobe UniversityMonash University

Queensland University of TechnologyUniversity of Technology Sydney

Griffith UniversityRMIT University

Western Sydney UniversityUniversity of Tasmania

Curtin University of TechnologyMacquarie University

Deakin UniversityAustralian Catholic University

Swinburne University of Technology

Source: Department of Education and Training, uCube

Universities increasing domestic bachelor enrolments by 4,000 or more, 2008-2016

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

1982 1992 2002 2012 2014

Higher education participation rates, 17-19 year-olds

Higher education participation rates increased under demand driven funding

Notes: International students could not be excluded from the data from 1982 and 1992. 1982 and 1992 data includes 16 years old students. Onshore international students have been removed from the population figures from 2002 onwardsSources: DEET (1993), DEET (2002), ABS (2015), Department of Education (various years)

10

Participation rates could go down if the freeze lasts into the 2020s

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Jun-2012 Jun-2017 Jun-2022 Jun-2027

Estimated 18 year old population

Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (2013), series B

11

The number of low SES students increased substantially

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Commencing bachelor degree students from low SES backgrounds

Note: IEO is the official equity measure. However, it has a circular element in that having relatively few higher education students is part of its definition. IRSAD is a measure of material disadvantage.Source: Department of Education and Training, Higher education statistics collection

2011 Censusreclassifiesareas

Index of Education andOccupation measure

Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage measure

12

With general growth in enrolments, the low SES share of the total is growing slowly

Proportion of domestic commencing bachelor enrolments by SES group

Notes: SES is SEIFA IEO. CD used for 2005 – 2010, SA1 used for 2011 – 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Lowest quartile

Highest SES quartile

3rd quartile

2nd quartile

Change of SES location system in 2011

Spending

14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$2017, billion

Notes: 2014-2017 data based on determinationsSource: Department of Education and Training, supplied and determinations

After a period of major growth, Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding has stabilised in real terms

Admissions

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Domestic commencing bachelor degree, school leavers, by ATAR, per cent

Low ATAR students a small but growing share of commencing school leavers

Source: Department of Education and Training, Higher education statistics collection

ATAR 90 +

ATAR 80 to 89.95

ATAR 70 to 79.95

ATAR 60 to 69.95ATAR 50-59.95

ATAR below 50

17

But secondary school is a declining basis of admission Secondary school as basis of admission, per cent of total domestic bachelor commencing students

0

10

20

30

40

50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Department of Education and Training, Higher education statistics collection

18

Low-ATAR students are less likely to complete their degree than those with high ATARsCompletion rates of students after 9 years, per cent

0

20

40

60

80

100

30-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-94 95-100

Note: 9-year cohort period based on school leaversSource: Cohort analysis 2005-2014 (DET)

ATAR

2005 2006 cohort

Teaching and assessment

20

Attrition is back up to 2005 levels; subject fails are declining but still above pre-demand driven levels

0

4

8

12

16

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Per cent, commencing domestic bachelor degree students

Source: Department of Education and Training, Students: Selected higher education statistics 2017, appendix 4.4Note: Subject fail is public universities only, attrition is all universities. Attrition is not enrolled at any higher education provider in the year after commencing.

Subject fail rate

Attrition rate

21

New graduates expressed increased satisfaction with teaching into early demand driven years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Student satisfaction with teaching, per cent

Note: Based on average positive response, as indicated by choosing the top two points on a five-point satisfaction scale, of six questions related to teaching. In 2010 a previously unlabelled mid-point was labelled ‘neither agree nor disagree’.Source: Graduate Careers Australia, Course experience questionnaire (sent to new graduates)

Change in answer format

22

A survey of current students is not showing any real student satisfaction trend 2012-2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Note: Eleven questions on teaching to current students with answers recoded to 0, 25, 50, 75, 100. Any student with an average of 55 or more is deemed satisfied. 2015 and 2016 results include non-university higher education providers. Source: Social Research Centre/Department of Education and Training, Student experience survey

Per cent of students satisfied with teaching

Outcomes

24

Higher education attainment rates are increasing, but men lag far behind women

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

All Australia resident women

Source: ABS Education and Work

Proportion of population with a bachelor degree or above

All Australia resident menAustralia born males

All Australia born

Australia born females

25

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Domestic bachelor graduate outcomes 2006-2016, employment 4 months out

Sources: Completions: Department of Education, uCubeFT jobs: Grattan calculations based on GCA, Graduate Destination Survey and GradStats

Completions increased, but full-time jobs soon aftergraduation did not

Degree completions

Estimated full-time jobs

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Per cent of bachelor degree graduates still looking for full-time work 4 months after course completion

Bachelor degree un-/under-employment, 1979-2017

Note: Change in survey 2016-2017Source: Graduate Careers Australia, Graduate Destination Survey, Department of Education and Training, Graduate Outcomes Survey

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008(2011)

2009(2012)

2010(2013)

2011(2014)

2012(2015)

2013(2016)

2014(2017)

Source 4 months: Graduate Careers Australia, Graduate Destination Survey, Department of Education and Training, Graduate Outcomes SurveySource 3 years: Graduate Careers Australia, Beyond Graduation survey, DET/SRC, Graduate Outcomes Survey-L

Per cent of those wanting full-time work who do not have it

2014 was the worst year ever for graduate employment, but three years on that cohort is doing as well as other recent cohorts

Four months out

Three years out

28

The skills shortages that prompted concerns about graduate shortages have largely gone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Number of professional & managerial jobs in skills shortage

Source: Department of Employment, Skills shortage list

29

There is a slow downward trend in the share of graduates in professional & managerial jobs

55

60

65

70

75

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Proportion of working graduates in professional or managerial employment, per cent

Source: ABS, Education and Work

30

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Year after 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years

Average weekly income by years since bachelor-degree completion, $2015

Graduated 2001-2005

Source: R. Wilkins, 12th annual statistical report of the HILDA survey

Recent graduates are earning less at the samepoint in their careers

Graduated 2006-2009

Graduated 2010-2011

31

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Male Female

Year 12Cert III/IV

Median weekly income from all jobs, aged 25 to 34 years old, $2016

Bachelor

At the median, graduates still earn more than people with other qualifications

Notes: Weighted by weekly earnings in all jobs. Born in Australia or born overseas and arrived 10 or more years ago.Source: ABS, Characteristics of Employment, 2016

Diploma