demand-based carbon accounting using the updated oecd inter … · 2016. 3. 29. · * oecd...
TRANSCRIPT
LINKING CLIMATE POLICY, INDUSTRIAL
STRUCTURE, AND GHG EMISSIONS IN A
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK
Nick Johnstone OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation COP21 side event, Le Bourget , 3 December 2015
Why ICIO for Carbon?
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• Accounting system recommended by IPCC is based on place of emission
• Could be said to be broadly consistent with OECD “polluter pays principle”* but important and persistent point of contention in identifying “polluter”
• Consumption-based accounting can be a helpful analytical complement
• Particularly in the context of carbon (in distinction to most other environmental pressures):
– Global public bad (place of emission is irrelevant)
– “Relative” ease of attributing (input=>emission)
– Significant differentiation in policy frameworks
* OECD Recommendation on Guiding Principles Concerning the International Economic Aspects of Environmental Policies, C(72)128, par 4
Why TiVA for Carbon?
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• For reasons of policy efficiency and effectiveness policymakers have an interest in knowing:
– What the level of their consumption-based emissions are relative to production-based emissions
– And, how the relationship between the two changes with differences in policy regimes across countries.
• Analysis based on gross trade flows at the sectoral level provide little guidance – point of incidence of policy is often more granular and production processes are increasingly fragmented
• Two important extensions:
– How to address if deviations are large (and increasing) – both sticks (carbon-based BTA) and carrots (ITAs)
– Implications for allocation of “responsibility” in context of international agreements (i.e. common but differentiated responsibility) – or even regional allocation within a country (China)
OECD ICIO ANALYSIS:
HISTORY, CONCEPTS AND RESULTS
Norihiko Yamano OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation Linking climate policy, industrial structure, and GHG emissions in a global framework, COP21 side event, Le Bourget , 3 December 2015
CO2 emissions from fuel combustions
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• Territorial –based (by flow & product)
• Production-based (by industry & household)
• Consumption-based (by final demand type)
• Emissions embodied in gross exports and imports (footprint by exported and imported product)
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
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Territorial, production, consumption and
gross export-based emissions
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• Methodology:
CO2 multiplier is estimated by multiplying the intensities of the production-based emissions by sector with the global Leontief Inverse from ICIO
note: Production-based emissions and foreign final demand are adjusted for “expenditures by non-residents in domestic territories”
• Coverage
– 61 Countries + Rest of the world (with flexible regional aggregates e.g. EU28, ASEAN)
– 34 industries (two digit ISIC Rev. 3 – based)
• Main data sources
– OECD ICIO
– IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
OECD CO2 embodied in trade (2015ed)
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Production-based and consumption-
based emissions (1995-2011)
9 http://oe.cd/io-co2
Net CO2 imports: selected countries
10 http://oe.cd/io-co2
OECD Non-OECD
Flow and Stock
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Flow 2011
Stock 1995-2011
Emissions embodied in exported products
by product (Mton CO2 and share%, 2011)
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The global discrepancy: Convergence
in CO2 intensity per unit export
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Per capita production-based and consumption-based
emissions by product (G7 and selected countries, 2011)
14 http://oe.cd/io-co2
Summary: “CO2 intensive sectors”
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• Territorial –based (by product and flow) Fuel type: Coal, oil, gas
Flow: electricity, transport
• Production-based (by industry & household) Electricity, manufacturing
• Consumption-based (by final demand type) Manufacturing, services
• Emissions embodied in gross exports and imports (footprint by exported product) Products: Material manufacturing and machinery
Country: Emerging, G7s
OECD ICIO ANALYSIS:
EMBODIED CARBON AND CLIMATE POLICY
Kirsten Wiebe OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation Linking climate policy, industrial structure, and GHG emissions in a global framework, COP21 side event, Le Bourget , 3 December 2015
Annex I and non-Annex I countries
The difference between production-based and
consumption-based emissions
http://oe.cd/io-co2
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Development of global CO2 emissions (in Gt) non-AnnexI prod
non-AnnexI cons
China prod
China cons
AnnexI cons
AnnexI prod
USA cons
USA prod
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
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Net-imports in Gt
• Environmental policy stringency (EPS)
– Percentage of environmental taxes in total tax revenue
– Percentage of environmental taxes in GDP
• Correlation analysis
• Sample (policy data available for almost all countries in ICIO)
– Pairwise bilateral
– Pairwise only Annex I countries relative to non-Annex I countries
Annex I and non-Annex I countries
Qualitative (preliminary) results do not provide
evidence of significant policy-induced leakage
Embodied CO2 Environmental policy stringency
Domestic CO2 embodied in domestic FD or Exports
Partner′s CO2 embodied in domestic FD or Exports
Domestic EPS
Partner′s EPS
Domestic CO2 embodied in domestic FD or Exports
Total CO2 embodied in domestic FD or Exports
Domestic EPS
Average partner′s EPS
Individual country perspective
Germany (stringent environmental policies)
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519
96
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719
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92
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52
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62
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72
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010
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Germany's emissions (Mio t CO2)
Consumption-based
Production-based
Net-imports
http://oe.cd/io-co2
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Origin of consumption-based emissions (Mio t CO2)
Domestic
Annex I
Emissions embodied in final demand
Emission of foreign origin – top 10 final demand industries
~ 2 3 of total emissions of foreign origin
~ 3 4 of total consumption-based emissions
Individual country perspective: Germany
Consumption based emissions by final demand industry
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O2
2011 domestic
2011 foreign
http://oe.cd/io-co2
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles Origin of emissions by country and industry – 2011 hotspots
Industries Chemicals Non-metallic minerals Basic metals Motor vehicles Electricity, gas and water supply (Utilities)
CO2 hotspot countries
http://oe.cd/io-co2
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles CO2 intensities of hotspots
Germany’s CO2 intensities are smaller than everyone else’s Why?
http://oe.cd/io-co2
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles Energy mix of hotspots
Germany’s energy mix has a low share of CO2 intensive energy carriers Again: Why? Policies? Technology?
http://oe.cd/io-co2
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
DEU CZE POL USA CHN IND RUS
Chemicals
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
DEU CZE POL USA CHN IND RUS
Basic metals
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
DEU CZE POL USA CHN IND RUS
Electricity, gas and water supply (Utilities)
Comb. Renewables
Solar/wind/other
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Crude/NGL/feedst
Peat
Coal
• Indicators need to be comparable across countries and time
• Policy indicators – Identify relevant policy areas
– Identify relevant policy measures
– Quantify their impact
• Technology indicators – Identify technological differences across countries
– Identify current and possible technology diffusion
How can we measure the relation between
embodied CO2, policies and technologies?
Policy influence
• Energy/climate policies
– Successful voluntary agreements with industry since 1997 (Chemicals, various non-metallic minerals, NF metals, iron and steel, gas, oil, electricity, CHP )
– Renewable Energies Act (EEG)
• R&D policies
– Environmental innovation programme
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles
Policies and technology
Technology influence
• Less CO2 intensive energy mix
• Cleaner production processes?
• But: Production of different products in same industries in different countries?
Policy transfer? Technology diffusion?
• A starting point for developing policy indicators
Policy databases’ reported first year / year of increasing activity of climate change mitigation policies
IEPD Industrial Efficiency Policy Database
IEA Policies & Measures database
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles
Climate change mitigation policies
IEPD IEA
Germany 1997 1977 / 1990
Czech Republic 1994 / 2001
Poland 1991 / 2001
United States 1975 1974 / 1990
China 2004 1996 / 2002
India 1999 / 2001
Russia 2010 2001 / 2008
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles
Technology collaboration & change in CO2 intensity
http://oe.cd/io-co2 http://dotstat.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PAT_COL#
Technology collaboration with Germany and the change in CO2 intensity of utilities industry
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles
Technology collaboration & change in CO2 intensity
http://oe.cd/io-co2 http://dotstat.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PAT_COL#
Technology collaboration with Germany (DEU) / with Annex I countries and the change in CO2 intensity of utilities industry
• How to construct climate policy indicators to be used with ICIO analysis results?
• (How) can we use consumption-based CO2 accounts to better identify – Policy transfer opportunities and necessities?
– Technology diffusion opportunities?
• Is it at the bilateral industry perspective or country/regional final demand perspective?
• Would a well design technology transfer have a greater impact than any monetary transfer mechanism?
Going forward
• OECD work on trade in carbon dioxide emissions (data and methodology) http://oe.cd/io-co2
• OECD.ICIO http://www.oecd.org/trade/input-outputtables.htm
• Trade in Value Added http://oe.cd/tiva
• OECD STI Scoreboard 2015 http://www.oecd.org/sti/scoreboard.htm
Further readings and databases
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Thank you!
Code LabelE Short labels
TOTAL TOTAL Total
01T05 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Agriculture
10T14 Mining and quarrying Mining
15T16 Food products, beverages and tobacco Food products
17T19 Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear Textiles & apparel
20 Wood and products of wood and cork Wood
21T22 Pulp, paper, paper products, printing and publishing Paper, print, publsh
23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Coke, petroleum
24 Chemicals and chemical products Chemicals
25 Rubber and plastics products Rubber & plastics
26 Other non-metallic mineral products Non-metallic minerals
27 Basic metals Basic metals
28 Fabricated metal products Fabricated metals
29 Machinery and equipment, nec Machinery
30,32,33 Computer, Electronic and optical equipment ICT & electronics
31 Electrical machinery and apparatus, nec Electrical machinery
34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Motor vehicles
35 Other transport equipment Other transport
36T37 Manufacturing nec; recycling Other manufacturing
40T41 Electricity, gas and water supply Utilities
45 Construction Construction
50T52 Wholesale and retail trade; repairs Wholesale & retail
55 Hotels and restaurants Hotels & restaurants
60T63 Transport and storage Transport & storage
64 Post and telecommunications Post & telecoms
65T67 Financial intermediation Finance & insurance
70 Real estate activities Real estate
71 Renting of machinery and equipment Renting of machinery
72 Computer and related activities IT services
73, 74 R&D and other business activities Other business services
75 Public admin. and defence; compulsory social security Public admin
80 Education Education
85 Health and social work Health
90T93 Other community, social and personal services Other services
95 Private households with employed persons Private households
ICIO industry classification ISIC Rev 3
1 AUS Australia 22 NLD Netherlands 43 HKG Hong Kong SAR
2 AUT Austria 23 NZL New Zealand 44 HRV Croatia
3 BEL BELGIUM 24 NOR Norway 45 IDN Indonesia
4 CAN Canada 25 POL Poland 46 IND India
5 CHL Chile 26 PRT Portugal 47 KHM Cambodia
6 CZE Czech Republic 27 SVK Slovak Republic 48 LTU Lithuania
7 DNK Denmark 28 SVN Slovenia 49 LVA Latvia
8 EST Estonia 29 ESP Spain 50 MLT Malta
9 FIN Finland 30 SWE Sweden 51 MYS Malaysia
10 FRA France 31 CHE Switzerland 52 PHL Philippines
11 DEU Germany 32 TUR Turkey 53 ROU Romania
12 GRC Greece 33 GBR United Kingdom 54 RUS Russian Federation
13 HUN Hungary 34 USA United States 55 SAU Saudi Arabia
14 ISL Iceland 35 ARG Argentina 56 SGP Singapore
15 IRL Ireland 36 BGR Bulgaria 57 THA Thailand
16 ISR Israel 37 BRA Brazil 58 TUN Tunisia
17 ITA Italy 38 BRN Brunei Darussalam 59 TWN Chinese Taipei
18 JPN Japan 39 CHN China 60 VNM Viet Nam
19 KOR Korea 40 COL Colombia 61 ZAF South Africa
20 LUX Luxembourg 41 CRI Costa Rica 62 RoW Rest of the world
21 MEX Mexico 42 CYP Cyprus
ICIO country coverage