demand and acceptance of energy technologies · application to energy • household and leisure...
TRANSCRIPT
Demand and Acceptance of Energy Technologies
EPPSA Technology Forum
23.1.2012 Piet Sellke and Ortwin Renn
University of Stuttgart and DIALOGIK gemeinnützige GmbH
PART I
Concepts
and basic approaches
Innovation: Starting Point
Fate of innovation depends on:
Observed regularities and trends, Natural
Technological
Social
Human decisions Individual (inventor, innovator, developer, user)
Collective (industry, regulators, consumers, etc.)
Random events (noise)
Innovation Theory in Energy I:
Observed regularities and trends
Physical Development – Human population and ecosystem dynamics (ecology)
– Physical environment and climate (natural sciences)
Technology Development – Technology Pull (engineering, natural science)
– Demand Push (economics, behavioral sciences)
Societal Development – Socio-cultural context (sociology, history, psychology)
– Energy futures (Economics, philosophy, social sciences)
Innovation Theory in Energy II:
Human decisions Behavioral simulation (acceptance, consumption)
– Individual preferences (economics, behavioral sciences)
– Mobilization/protest (political science, sociology)
Institutional and organizational changes
– Instruments and incentives (economics)
– Legal context and frames (legal studies)
– Political and social barriers/promoters (political studies, policy sciences)
Random events Risk assessments (interdisciplinary)
Foresights / future studies (interdisciplinary)
PART II
Insights about social acceptance
Three Domains of Technology I
o Household and leisure technology
o Allocation: market
o Test for acceptance: purchase (personal preferences)
o Areas of conflict: liability, quality, external effects
o Technology at work
o Allocation: corporate decision making
o Test for acceptance: active utilization
o Areas of conflict: rationalization, stress, co-determination
Three Domains of Technology II
External technology (neighbor) Allocation: interface of economy, politics and civil society
o Test for acceptance
o conventional: legal provisions, licensing, voting
o unconventional: protest, political mobilization
o Areas of conflict: Equity, legitimacy, vision of the future
o Major conflict areas: nuclear energy, genetic engineering, waste disposal plants, nanotechnology
Application to Energy
• Household and leisure technology
• High demand for electric appliances (Germany top in Europe)
o Overall positive appraisal for renewable energy but purchase behavior depends highly on relative costs and expectations of their future developments
o Problem of rebound effect (Jason paradox for efficiency)
o Energy at work
o High correlations with cost and expected cost savings
o Energy efficiency is widely recognized as priority
o Further reductions depend on structural changes and systemic cooperation
Application to Energy
External technology (neighbor) o Strong opposition against centralized energy facilities,
in particular nuclear power stations and nuclear waste repositories
o Negative attitudes towards fossil power plants but degree of mobilization less severe than for nuclear
o Starting opposition against large scale application of renewable energy (biomass, wind)
o Local opposition against new energy infrastructure
o Growing sensitivity to cost increase
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Risk perception (I/II)
Human behavior depends on perception, not on facts!
Qualitative Risk Characteristics:
Risk-related patterns
Perceived dread
Familiarity with the risk
Sensual perceptibility
Situation-related patterns
Personal controllability
Voluntariness
Trust in risk management
Fair distribution of gains and losses
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Risk perception (II/II)
Semantic risk patterns
Risks posing an immediate threat (large dams, nuclear energy)
Risks dealt with as a blow of fate (natural disasters)
Risk as challenge to one‘s own strenght (sports)
Risk as a gamble (lotteries, stock exchange)
Risks as an early indication of insidious danger (food additives, viruses)
Stigmatisation of Risk
Social amplification of Risk
Preferences: technology ranking US and GER
Efficiency 2,3 2,3 2,4
Efficiency 2,0
3,0
Wind Offshore 2,6
3,3 Solar Thermal 3,3
Nuclear 4,0
4,2
8,6
Nuclear 10,5
IGCC with CCS 4,2 4,4
6,0
IGCC with CCS 7,0
Wind Onshore 4,4 4,7
3,6
Wind Onshore 3,2
Biomass 5,4 5,3 5,2 Biomass 5,2
Natural Gas 5,8
5,4 5,3 Natural Gas 5,6
PV Solar 6,4 6,3
4,1 PV Solar 3,9
PC with CCS 7,0 6,9
7,6
PC with CCS 8,1
IGCC 7,1 7,1 7,0
IGCC 7,0
PC 8,5 8,5
8,7
PC 8,8
Before Discussion After Discussion
Before Discussion After Discussion
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
US DE Best
Worse
PART III
Insights about energy consumption
Rebound Effect
Definition: An increase in energy efficiency correlates with an increase in energy consumption (income effect and behavioral effect)
Households: Between 1990 und 2005: efficiency gains: 32% ; Increase in demand: 21%; since 2008 stabilized (light decrease 2009)
Influential Factors on Energy Behavior
Ability (structural und situational conditions)
System knowledge of users
Legal constraints
Temporal and local constraints
Availability of resources
Motivation (personal incentives)
Expectation of net benefits
Positive association with one‘s preferences, values, and word-views
Positive attitude
Compatibility with habitual behavioral patterns
Positive reinforcements
Social recognition
Intervention Studies (Results)
Intrinsic
Individual counseling and knowledge transfer
Contracting solutions (problem: moral hazard)
Feedback of consumption and energy savings
Financial incentives (subsidies)
Extrinsic
Avoidance of the tragedy of the commons (individual contribution)
Collective goals and feedback
External visibility of energy saving behavior
Influence of highly esteemed reference groups
Cooperative planning for infrastructure investments
PART IV
Conclusions
Conclusions I
Innovation depends on: Systematic trends
Human decisions
Random events
Social Sciences and Humanities can contribute: Design of scenarios and different energy futures
Individual and organizational decision making and behavioral responses
Identification of constraints, promoters and legal frameworks
Incentives and instruments for change
Risk assessments, foresight and future studies
Conclusions II
Crucial factors for acceptance are:
Large-scale technology: fear of catastrophic risks, environmental pollution, and lack of societal control
Scaling effects of decentralized systems: protest if decentralized systems reach high density or lead to major cumulative impacts
Rebound effect: Most energy efficiency gains have been compensated and over-compensated by increase in demand
Transformation to post-carbon economics will fail if behavioral variables and context conditions are not adequately addressed
Quote
To progress in knowledge and action means to doubt what conventional wisdom suggests
(Aristotle)
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