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Andrew Warren

Applying DAPP to confront long term (climate) uncertainties in planning

29 October 2020

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways

Potential Futures

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Under deep uncertainty decision makers should aim for robust plans that can be adapted over time

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Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)

• A systematic framework for adaptive planning that explicitly considers decision making through time.

• Specifies short-term actions and thresholdsbeyond which additional actions are needed.

• Formulates monitoring plan to monitor signals of systemic change

• Helps focus on important planning questions concerning deep uncertainties

− Which actions to prioritise, which to postpone

− Identification of potential situations of (low-)‘regret’

− Illumination of path-dependencies

− Identification of robust and flexible strategies

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4. Develop and evaluate adaptation pathways

3. Identify actions and assess ATP/OTP conditions and timing

1. Describe system, objectives, uncertainties

5. Design adaptive plan: short-term actions, long-term

options and adaptation signals

Reassess

Actions

Reassess

2. Assess vulnerability/opportunities:

adaptation/opportunity thresholds (ATP/OTP)

6. Implement the plan

7. Monitor: ATP approaching? Actions or reassessment?

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Adaptation Pathways Map

• Maps show different possible sequences of decisions to achieve objectives

• Scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions

8Haasnoot et al. (2013). 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

Phased approach to DAPP

Awareness raising:

• Serious gaming

• Introduction to adaptive planning methodology

http://deltagame.deltares.nl 9

Phased approach to DAPP

Level III: Full assessment of pathways

Requirements

for further analysis

and/or modellingNa

rra

tive

s

Level II: Quantitative design of pathways

Level I: Initial qualitative pathways - narratives

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DAPP applications

Adaptive pathways studies in practice

Adaptive pathways in guidance

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Assessment of alternative flood mitigation

strategies for C7-Basin in Miami, Florida

System vulnerable to sea level rise due to:

• Low topography

• High groundwater table

• Sandy soils and porous limestones

• Complex water management system

(i.e. governance)

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Miami C7 Basin (2017)

Level I: Workshop to explore pathways narratives

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To be

modelled

• M0 – No action

• M1 – Local flood mitigation: flood walls, exfiltration

trenches, flap gates, and local pumps

• M2 – Regional flood mitigation: forward pumps at

S-27 coastal structure (small & large pumps)

• M3 – Land-use mitigation: raise roads and buildings

to 6, 7 or 8 feet elevation

Possible adaptation options

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Level II: Quantitative analyses

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Hydrologic Drivers:

• Rainfall (4x);

• Storm Surge (1/10)

• Sea Level Rise (3x)

Adaptation Options

Hydrodynamic Model

XPSWMM

Delft-FIAT

Dynamic Adaptive

Policy Pathways

(DAPP)

(M $)

Exp

ecte

d a

nn

ua

l d

am

ag

e

(M$

)

Timing of adaptation thresholds from modelling

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2065 (2.21 ft)

SLR1

SLR32045

2025 2050

2065 (0.76 ft)

Objective:

Expected annual damage (EAD)

should not exceed current levels

Threshold = current EAD

(M $)

EA

D (

M$)

Current EAD

Adaptation pathways

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Structural

measures

Land use

measures

Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl

Adaptation pathways

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Structural

measures

Land use

measures

Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl

Adaptation pathways

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• Land use measures are

needed in the end

• Installing pumps can buy

some time.

Structural

measures

Land use

measures

Pathways generator tool: http://pathways.deltares.nl

Additional information

Tools supporting DAPP…

Delft-FIAT

Adaptation Support Tool

Pathways generatorSerious Games

Fast integrated models

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…and many more!

Pathways as part of other guidance

• CRIDA – AGWA-IHE-USACE-Deltares

• IWRM planning in the Philippines - WB

• Coastal adaptation New Zealand

• Nature-based solutions (WB + ADB)

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www.deepuncertainty.org

Annual meeting 10-12 November (virtual)

23@deepuncertainty

Summary

Conclusion

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• Versatile approach to incorporate deep uncertainties

into planning processes and identify flexible and

robust strategies

• Adaptation thresholds and scenarios to assess if

and when any limits, thresholds, or opportunities occur.

• Explore adaptation pathways to identify ‘regrets’,

path-dependencies and formulate adaptive plans

• Monitoring plan to identify approaching thresholds

• Timescales of adaptation are important

(i.e. lead time & lifetime)

• Various levels of assessment: narratives, model-

based pathways

Questions?

www.deltares.nl | pathways.deltares.nl

andrew.warren@deltares.nl