delphi techno forecast south korea
TRANSCRIPT
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ec no ogy orecast ng an ann ng:
Taeyoung ShinSeoul, Korea
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Introduction
Koreas experience in technology foresight Koreas S&T system and evolution of TF
Main feature of this presentation includes;
Exploratory method for exploring the path of technological
develo ment,
Normative approach determining the directions of future research
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Koreas S&T System
MOST: lead agency in S&T policy-making
Major players: MOST, MOCIE, and MIC
Lack of workable institutional mechanism Increases in needs for rational approach in
formulation of national R&D programs
Coordination of resource allocation
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R&D Management Agencies
R&D Mgmt Start year of
Agency
Programs
KISTEP Various areas 1982
Science andTechnology
(MOST) KOSEF
Target-orientedbasic 1987
researc
Commerce, Industryand Ener ITEP
Industrialtechnolo ies 1987
(MOCIE) RACER Alternative energy 1988
Information and Information andCommunication
(MIC)
IITA communicationtechnologies
1991
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Evolution of TF Activities
Rapid increase in S&T investment has brought the concept ofmanagemen nc u ng , pr or y-se ng, eva ua on
and control since early 1990s.
Methodological development is continuously required.A model case for national R&D programs: Han Projects
formulated in 1992
R&D organizations focuses on their respective situations. Such government efforts stimulate S&T activit ies of the
private sector
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S&T Foresight: HAN (G7) Projects
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Framework of S&T Policy-Making
Communication &Coordination
Setting Priorit ies &Selecting Key TechsS&T Monitoring &Forecasting
Consensus
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HAN Projects: Preliminary stage
Coordination and communications between
Constructing G7 Committee and subcommittees
5 Committees
2-4 subcommittees
n eac area
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HAN Projects: Phase I
S&T monitoring
technology
Selecting candidate technologies :214 technologies
national goal
Product-oriented technologies
Fundamental and generic technologies
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HAN Projects: Phase II
Screening candidate technologies
Undertaking survey
About 440 scientists and technologists
Major survey parameters
Potentials of economic application
Full-cycle R&D through collaboration
Need for inter-ministerial support
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HAN Projects: Key technologies
Product-Oriented Techs
Highly integrated semi-
Fundamental and Generic Techs
New materials inconductor
Integrated services and
data network
information service,
electronics and energy
Next eneration
High definit ion TV New machine and
transportation systemsincluding machines and
Advanced production
system
New functional bio-
materials
technology
New energy resources
ew a om c reac or an
verification
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HAN Projects: Phase III
Surveys on component technologies in each area
Applicants organized research teams by themselves
Review and evaluation of proposals by specialists panels
Confirmin the f inals and allocatin bud ets
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HAN Projects: Phase IV
Control and evaluation of R&D performance in the process
Determine whether to continue the projects
Running training programs for R&D management to increase
effectiveness of R&D activit ies
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HAN Projects: Remarks
Concerted Actions are required.
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Continuing monitoring R&D process and R&D management
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Korean Delphi
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Needs for Koreas Own Delphi Study
Technological progress of one country depends on
working in the S&T community within a border primarily.
Technological concerns and attentions of the Korean experts
With different endowments, different countries may take
different strategies for their own technological development.
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rgan za on o orean e p
Expert PanelExpert (A) Expert (B)Anonymity
TF Committee
Sub-Committees
Moderator
Forecast Feedback
Feedback Forecast
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Del hi Procedure
Preliminary Stage
Brain-storming to collect ideas of technologies to be forecasted; sending
blank papers to 25,000 experts , ,
9,000 topics to be forecasted
Pre-Foresi ht
constructing the TF committee and 12 sub-committees
Reviewing 9,000 topics and selecting 1,127 topics
Reviewing the questionnaires
Main Foresi htTwo-round Delphi by sending the entire set of questionnaires to 5,000
experts; 1,600 returned in the first round and 1,200 in the second
opcs a e o e secon ques onnares: oae , opcs
Each expert answered less than 50 topics of two areas on average
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reas: rs orean e p. ,
2. Production (115 topics)
3. Materials (131 topics)4. Fine chemicals (51 topics)
5. Life science (92 topics)
. ,
7. Medical care and health (117 topics)8. Energy (87 topics)
9. Environment and safety (85 topics)
10. Minerals and water resources (50 topics)
11. Urbanizat ion and construct ion 62 to ics12. Transportation (80 topics)
13. Marine and earth science (46 topics)
. s ronomy an space op cs
15. Ultra technology (26 topics)
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reas: econ orean e p.
2. Communication (40 topics)
3. Machinery and production (88 topics)4. Transportation (64 topics)
5. Air transportat ion, astronomy and space (61 topics)
.
7. Marine and earth science (57 topics)8. Energy, resources and nuclear power (117 topics)
9. Urbanizat ion and construction (65 topics)
10. Materials (104 topics)
11. Fine chemicals 86 to ics12. Life science (91 topics)
13. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries (88 topics)
. e ca care an ea op cs
15. Ultra technology (30 topics)
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urvey arame ers. ,
2. Degree of importance: high, medium, low and unnecessary
-.
intervals
4. Probabil ity of real izat ion: high, medium and low
5. Current level of R&D: five levels by scaling the level of the worldleader (=100%) by 20 percent.
6. Method performing R&D: led by industry or government, joint
operation between industry, academy and NPRIs, and international
coo eration multi le choice
7. Constraints of realization: technological, institutional, social/cultural,
funds, manpower, and others (multiple choice)
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Some Attentions to Delphi Study e -prepare s u y p an
Database of experts and selection of experts (e.g. co-nomination method):
Do not have to focus on high degree of expertise
Include interest groups as many as possible
Partici ants should understand the ur ose and rocess of
Delphi
Management of the Delphi panel
Dissemination further research of Delphi results
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Flow of S&T Planning Activities
National Goal
Socio-EconomicForecast
Future Environment
S&T Capabili tyTechnology
ForecastEvaluation PastS&T Targets
S&T Strategies
Performance
Programming Major Areas S&T SystemR&Dand PolicyResources
Direction of Future R&D
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Priorities Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term
Competitiveness
Network System Network System
Publi
Survival
Coexistence Coexistence Coexistence
Basic Research Basic Research Basic Research
Bottom --Human & environ-
---
P
TopCompetitiveness Human & environ-
ment-friendly techs
Human & environ-
ment-friendly techsrivate
MiddleHuman and environ-
ment-friendly techs
Competitiveness
Network System
Competitiveness
-- --
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1 The stationar state is assumed over next 20 ears. That is,there would be no drastic changes in the Korean society.
(2) Those 1174 topics represent necessary technologies for S&Teveopmen n orea. can e sa a necessarytechnologies will appear additionally in time, but at the timeoint of forecastin the are the technolo ies in consideration
upon which the expected time path can be drawn out.(3) Presuming an imaginary world leader country so that a
comparson o oreas curren pos on can e ma e. uc a
world leader country is in fact a combination of several
.(4) Outliersbeyond 15yearsarediscarded inestimation.
(5) The S&Tdevelopment path is approximated linearly. The linear
path will show the development pattern on average of the
entire timeperiod.
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NTi = a0 + a1T + e ,
Where i = Korea, World leader
T = t i m e
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All areas: Korea1500
1200
900
First Delphi
600
Second Delphi
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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All areas: First Del hi1500
1200World leader
900
600
Korea
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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All areas: Second Del hi1200
900 World leader
600
300
Korea
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Electronics information & communications: Korea250
200
150
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Electronics information & commun ication: First Del hi
120
140
100World leader
80
40 Korea
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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Electronics information & communication: Second Del hi
120
140
100World leader
80
40
Korea20
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Concluding Remarks
In various reasons, important to produce decision informa-
tion, thou h costl and time-consumin in its own wa Purpose of the foresight studies
Intan ible benefits from foresi ht activities
Learning effectConsensus building
When diversified, concerted actions are necessary for
successful implementation of S&T policies Recognit ion of S&T policy-making as a social process, based
on cultural, social, political and economic backgrounds
Management-integrating capabili ty
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Thank ou !