DELPHI TECHNIQUE ASSIGNMENT

In history Delphi Technique was developed in the 1950s by the Rand Corporation. The name Delphi was coined by associate professor, Kaplan, who was working for the Rand Corporation trying to improve the use of expert predictions in policy-making (Jill Cope, Sean Jones, Gina Maahs, and Wendy Mathson, 2005).Delphi Technique can be defined as, a systematic method of collecting opinions from a group of experts through a series of questionnaires, in which feedback on the groups opinion distribution is provided between question rounds while preserving the anonymity of the respondents responses. In detailed description the Delphi Technique is qualitative research technique but with quantitative elements which relies on the judgment of a panel of experts, iterative process, taking place over a number of rounds, much admired for very flexible, good at getting beneath the surface of issues, good at addressing difficult or expert questions, more structured than conventional interviewing. However it is also much criticized for often dismissed as being discredited, accused of being anti-democratic/anti-participatory, reputation tarnished by sloppy execution in early days (Brian Garrod, 2008). The key features are systematic, questionnaire, expert opinions, iterative process, i.e. rounds, feedback - individual opinions mediated by group, and yet anonymity of individuals. The uses of the Delphi Technique examples are given below (Brian Garrod, 2008): Technological forecasting, e.g. medicines in the 1990s

Demand forecasting, e.g. Hawaii tourism in the Year 2000

Forecasting changes in hotel management in Hong Kong post-1997

Marketing of the island of Gozo separately from Malta

Environmental Impact Assessment of development of Salts Mill

The setting of priorities in managing heritage attractions

Definitions of ecotourismThe advantages are efficiency, cost effectiveness, validity, respondents isolated, and expert consensus. The disadvantages are lack of knowledge, not respected, time, facilitator bias, and simplification of issue (Bernie Coens, Jessica Remington, Ashley Owen, Roger Mattson, 2005). The issue selection process diagram is shown in the figure (1) below:

Figure (1) Source: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fig/0200120703001.pngThe references used for this assignment are listed below: Brian Garrod (2008), The Delphi Technique [Online] University of Wales Aberystwyth available from . Bernie Coens, Jessica Remington, Ashley Owen, Roger Mattson (2005), The Delphi Technique [Online] University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire available from . Jill Cope, Sean Jones, Gina Maahs, and Wendy Mathson (2005), The Delphi Technique [Online] University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire available from .Zubaidah Abdul Rehman, 20042080, BIS

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