delphi on transport and co 2 emissions finnish scenarios up to 2050
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DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSIONS Finnish scenarios up to 2050. Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio, Laura Joki Finland Futures Research Centre [email protected] / ffrc.utu.fi / www.fidea.fi. CO 2 emissions in the EU. CAST - project. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO2 EMISSIONSFinnish scenarios up to 2050
Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio, Laura JokiFinland Futures Research Centre
[email protected] / ffrc.utu.fi / www.fidea.fi
CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE EU
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
transporttotal CO2
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CAST - PROJECT
Delphi study: 2 rounds, interviews & questionnaires (2009-2010)
Disaggregative Policy Delphi: search for crystallised views, not consensus
020406080
100
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
View on a topic
Freq
uenc
y
Disaggregative Delphi
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MATERIAL
34 participants: 32 interviews, 24 questionnaires from round 2
Qualitative content analysis of interviewsEach respondent provided a probable and a
prefarable image of future: 48 numerical descriptions of future (years 2020, 2030, 2050)
Questionnaire divided into themes, separate cluster analyses for each theme (pass. transport, freight, policies, vehicles, other drivers)
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5 CLUSTERS FOR THEME ”POLICIES”
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THEME/variable Dev. degrowth Urban beat Transit-Finland Ecomodernity Small steps BAU Material growthPOLICIES -3…+3
-0,7 -1,6 0,8
decrease s l igtl ydecrease s ignifi cantly ri se s l ightly
Pass .car dens i ty /1000 inh.
2020 275 463 479 463 528 534 5752030 175 395 433 395 537 533 7002050 125 353 370 353 548 516 700
People's awareness of cos ts of mobi l i ty
aware of environmental costs
aware of both env. and econ. costs
aware of environmental costs
aware of both env. and econ. costs
aware of economic costs
aware of economic costs not aware
Publ ic transport fares
-3,0 1,6
decrease sharply rise s ignifi cantly
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Passenger transport volume 2050
soft modes
airplane
railway
bus
pass.car
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
Passenger transport CO2 2050
soft modes
airplane
railway
bus
pass.car
EXAMPLE – PASS. TRANSPORT 2050
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Passenger transport volume 2050
soft modes
airplane
railway
bus
pass.car
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
Passenger transport CO2 2050
soft modes
airplane
railway
bus
pass.car
EXAMPLE – PASS. TRANSPORT 2050
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FREIGHT TRANSPORT 2050
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Freight volume, 2050
ship
railway
road
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Freight CO2 2050
ship
railway
road
FREIGHT TRANSPORT 2050
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Freight volume, 2050
ship
railway
road
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Freight CO2 2050
ship
railway
road
CO2 EMISSIONS FROM PASS.CARS
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
realised
EU target
Developing degrowth
Urban beat & Ecomodern
Transit-Finland
Small steps
BAU
Material growth
PERCENTAGE OF BIOFUELS
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
realised
Mat.growth
BAU
Small steps
Ecomodern & Urb.beat
Transit-Finland
Dev.degrowth
SUMMARISING RESULTS
Few believe in reaching env. targetsBoth technological and social changes
considered necessary to reach sustainabilityCar trips to countryside considered particularly
difficult to move to public transportRestriction of movement not envisionedFreight to decline or not, but move to rails
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10.6.2011
[email protected], [email protected]://ffrc.utu.fi/
www.fidea.fi
Thank you!
Trends and Future of Sustainable Development